ok im with u Matt!! ill better my work ethics and approach. Will start crunching harder, and for sure lines have tells, obviously the best are hired as odds-makers. The lines hav tells, and once u really get into games, u start to see where are the real advantages, i love baseball, its what i do.
Everything is extremely measurable to a degree. Ive lacked recently, and thats not acceptable. I did have ur phils and Over 8 earlier for Det game. Good to see we thought the same about marcum and Pettibone, and that Over with atl game was quite strong as well, as u can see from how the game played out.
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ok im with u Matt!! ill better my work ethics and approach. Will start crunching harder, and for sure lines have tells, obviously the best are hired as odds-makers. The lines hav tells, and once u really get into games, u start to see where are the real advantages, i love baseball, its what i do.
Everything is extremely measurable to a degree. Ive lacked recently, and thats not acceptable. I did have ur phils and Over 8 earlier for Det game. Good to see we thought the same about marcum and Pettibone, and that Over with atl game was quite strong as well, as u can see from how the game played out.
ok im with u Matt!! ill better my work ethics and approach. Will start crunching harder, and for sure lines have tells, obviously the best are hired as odds-makers. The lines hav tells, and once u really get into games, u start to see where are the real advantages, i love baseball, its what i do.
Everything is extremely measurable to a degree. Ive lacked recently, and thats not acceptable. I did have ur phils and Over 8 earlier for Det game. Good to see we thought the same about marcum and Pettibone, and that Over with atl game was quite strong as well, as u can see from how the game played out.
I have to tell you something buddy and hopefully you'll get it in a right way.
You're overjoyed with success and very saddened by a couple of bad days.
That is a wrong approach as being stable with you convictions and being able to develop a trust level towards your abilities is a must process in bettering yourself.
In my opinion you're an excellent handicapper and have no need to change your approaches on a daily bases. Embrace your losses more than you do the wins as you can learn at least as much from the losses as from wins.
The season is long and there is not a one single approach that will not be overturned as the season advances. That is the nature of the professional sports and there is not a one single system or a methodology that will hold the water for longer than a month or two. The players are people too and they have their own issues and lives that often influence the outcomes of the games and not everything we think will happen will actually happen no matter how much you will crunch the numbers.
the bottom line is enjoying what you do.
Musicmatt1 is musicmatt1 and MikeTizzy is miketizzy. There no need for you to become misicmatt1 or opposite. The pluralism is very important to have a healthier genum of discussions and handicapping.
You're doing a OK. pick your head up!
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Quote Originally Posted by MikeTizzy:
ok im with u Matt!! ill better my work ethics and approach. Will start crunching harder, and for sure lines have tells, obviously the best are hired as odds-makers. The lines hav tells, and once u really get into games, u start to see where are the real advantages, i love baseball, its what i do.
Everything is extremely measurable to a degree. Ive lacked recently, and thats not acceptable. I did have ur phils and Over 8 earlier for Det game. Good to see we thought the same about marcum and Pettibone, and that Over with atl game was quite strong as well, as u can see from how the game played out.
I have to tell you something buddy and hopefully you'll get it in a right way.
You're overjoyed with success and very saddened by a couple of bad days.
That is a wrong approach as being stable with you convictions and being able to develop a trust level towards your abilities is a must process in bettering yourself.
In my opinion you're an excellent handicapper and have no need to change your approaches on a daily bases. Embrace your losses more than you do the wins as you can learn at least as much from the losses as from wins.
The season is long and there is not a one single approach that will not be overturned as the season advances. That is the nature of the professional sports and there is not a one single system or a methodology that will hold the water for longer than a month or two. The players are people too and they have their own issues and lives that often influence the outcomes of the games and not everything we think will happen will actually happen no matter how much you will crunch the numbers.
the bottom line is enjoying what you do.
Musicmatt1 is musicmatt1 and MikeTizzy is miketizzy. There no need for you to become misicmatt1 or opposite. The pluralism is very important to have a healthier genum of discussions and handicapping.
ok im with u Matt!! ill better my work ethics and approach. Will start crunching harder, and for sure lines have tells, obviously the best are hired as odds-makers. The lines hav tells, and once u really get into games, u start to see where are the real advantages, i love baseball, its what i do.
Everything is extremely measurable to a degree. Ive lacked recently, and thats not acceptable. I did have ur phils and Over 8 earlier for Det game. Good to see we thought the same about marcum and Pettibone, and that Over with atl game was quite strong as well, as u can see from how the game played out.
We're all here to better ourselves and that will happen by strengthening the group as a whole. We are not in competition my friend. With your baseball knowledge and my knowledge of lines we can be even more of a threat.
There are so many people with knowledge here. We bring it together, everyone's numbers will increase.
We never did this on the NBA forum, but the evolution of this process should involve no plays with strong arguments on both sides. There are enough out there we can agree on. Even with this theory, it's not like we would just find the same 3 picks.
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Quote Originally Posted by MikeTizzy:
ok im with u Matt!! ill better my work ethics and approach. Will start crunching harder, and for sure lines have tells, obviously the best are hired as odds-makers. The lines hav tells, and once u really get into games, u start to see where are the real advantages, i love baseball, its what i do.
Everything is extremely measurable to a degree. Ive lacked recently, and thats not acceptable. I did have ur phils and Over 8 earlier for Det game. Good to see we thought the same about marcum and Pettibone, and that Over with atl game was quite strong as well, as u can see from how the game played out.
We're all here to better ourselves and that will happen by strengthening the group as a whole. We are not in competition my friend. With your baseball knowledge and my knowledge of lines we can be even more of a threat.
There are so many people with knowledge here. We bring it together, everyone's numbers will increase.
We never did this on the NBA forum, but the evolution of this process should involve no plays with strong arguments on both sides. There are enough out there we can agree on. Even with this theory, it's not like we would just find the same 3 picks.
Gavin Floyd leaving the game after 1.2ip with an injury did not help my tb-chw under 7! hence all the runs being scored by 1 team, bullpen didn't hold up.. can't predict injuries right??
hindsight, but tampa bay first 5 innings.. or under 3.5 TT whitesox was a better bet.. i knew moore was going to bring it, this is his year.
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Gavin Floyd leaving the game after 1.2ip with an injury did not help my tb-chw under 7! hence all the runs being scored by 1 team, bullpen didn't hold up.. can't predict injuries right??
hindsight, but tampa bay first 5 innings.. or under 3.5 TT whitesox was a better bet.. i knew moore was going to bring it, this is his year.
wow, well said Mavin. I took it well and thanks for the support. I hate that i do get down on days when i feel i jus didnt do the work needed. Ok stability in my convictions, thanks Matt! i appreciate it, yea i felt the nba thread just didnt have "it", i understand nba is a diff animal and im not one to even elaborate anything too useful on those dynamics.
But for baseball, thats a whole diff story. All i know is, all the winning GMs, like the SF one, Epstein, Beane reliance on metrics cus his budget cant compete with NY and others. These past years, baseball went in a whole different direction as a whole, and a lot of ppl are gettin left behind, the losers that is. The more efficient ur batting, pitching, pen matchups are than the other team, u flat out win. A perfect example was last year, WS: DET Vs SF. everyone single game SF was like +145 or higher, according to all i measured, they were actually the faves to win each of those games and they did! swept the Tigers in fashion, so what does that tell u guys?! oddsmakers knew as well, and laughed at the heavy public Det with Verlander/Miggy.
0
wow, well said Mavin. I took it well and thanks for the support. I hate that i do get down on days when i feel i jus didnt do the work needed. Ok stability in my convictions, thanks Matt! i appreciate it, yea i felt the nba thread just didnt have "it", i understand nba is a diff animal and im not one to even elaborate anything too useful on those dynamics.
But for baseball, thats a whole diff story. All i know is, all the winning GMs, like the SF one, Epstein, Beane reliance on metrics cus his budget cant compete with NY and others. These past years, baseball went in a whole different direction as a whole, and a lot of ppl are gettin left behind, the losers that is. The more efficient ur batting, pitching, pen matchups are than the other team, u flat out win. A perfect example was last year, WS: DET Vs SF. everyone single game SF was like +145 or higher, according to all i measured, they were actually the faves to win each of those games and they did! swept the Tigers in fashion, so what does that tell u guys?! oddsmakers knew as well, and laughed at the heavy public Det with Verlander/Miggy.
wow, well said Mavin. I took it well and thanks for the support. I hate that i do get down on days when i feel i jus didnt do the work needed. Ok stability in my convictions, thanks Matt! i appreciate it, yea i felt the nba thread just didnt have "it", i understand nba is a diff animal and im not one to even elaborate anything too useful on those dynamics.
But for baseball, thats a whole diff story. All i know is, all the winning GMs, like the SF one, Epstein, Beane reliance on metrics cus his budget cant compete with NY and others. These past years, baseball went in a whole different direction as a whole, and a lot of ppl are gettin left behind, the losers that is. The more efficient ur batting, pitching, pen matchups are than the other team, u flat out win. A perfect example was last year, WS: DET Vs SF. everyone single game SF was like +145 or higher, according to all i measured, they were actually the faves to win each of those games and they did! swept the Tigers in fashion, so what does that tell u guys?! oddsmakers knew as well, and laughed at the heavy public Det with Verlander/Miggy.
Well said with one exception. The NBA thread has a lot of "it". I'm talking evolution of the process. And it's been done in the NBA thread to become this in MLB.
0
Quote Originally Posted by MikeTizzy:
wow, well said Mavin. I took it well and thanks for the support. I hate that i do get down on days when i feel i jus didnt do the work needed. Ok stability in my convictions, thanks Matt! i appreciate it, yea i felt the nba thread just didnt have "it", i understand nba is a diff animal and im not one to even elaborate anything too useful on those dynamics.
But for baseball, thats a whole diff story. All i know is, all the winning GMs, like the SF one, Epstein, Beane reliance on metrics cus his budget cant compete with NY and others. These past years, baseball went in a whole different direction as a whole, and a lot of ppl are gettin left behind, the losers that is. The more efficient ur batting, pitching, pen matchups are than the other team, u flat out win. A perfect example was last year, WS: DET Vs SF. everyone single game SF was like +145 or higher, according to all i measured, they were actually the faves to win each of those games and they did! swept the Tigers in fashion, so what does that tell u guys?! oddsmakers knew as well, and laughed at the heavy public Det with Verlander/Miggy.
Well said with one exception. The NBA thread has a lot of "it". I'm talking evolution of the process. And it's been done in the NBA thread to become this in MLB.
snakebill: I'll be back tomorrow, no need to be anxious :).
Thanks for keeping the NHL thread alive! It's very hard to balance multiple sports and lives, lol. Maybe, I'll look in to it as I also love me some hockey.
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Quote Originally Posted by Actiz0l:
snakebill: I'll be back tomorrow, no need to be anxious :).
Thanks for keeping the NHL thread alive! It's very hard to balance multiple sports and lives, lol. Maybe, I'll look in to it as I also love me some hockey.
Next year, i'll explain more my choices, i have a little baby (7 months), and i don't have enough time to write solids explanations, but I try getting better everyday as you all do here. Fun to be part of it.
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MUsicmatt1: haha thanks.
Next year, i'll explain more my choices, i have a little baby (7 months), and i don't have enough time to write solids explanations, but I try getting better everyday as you all do here. Fun to be part of it.
Burned by the run line in KC. Thanks Greg Holland. Rough week
Keep your chin up pal!
I PM'd AshyLarry to stay away from this game. This line had all the readings of a good game by Kazmir. The problem was the rain out that made me say stay away.
This should be a good point to do the RL discussion though... In my opinion we can find better values than those picks. I'm not advocating big ML's either, there are a lot of games and lines to choose from.
Maybe a better adjustment would be looking further in to the big ML's before taking RL's. Why is the line so high, does the match up merit it, do the line ups merit it, and so on. I don't like taking them after the team won the night before.
Let me know your thought.... Your 0-0 tomorrow so you can have a great day.
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Quote Originally Posted by natalieportman9:
Burned by the run line in KC. Thanks Greg Holland. Rough week
Keep your chin up pal!
I PM'd AshyLarry to stay away from this game. This line had all the readings of a good game by Kazmir. The problem was the rain out that made me say stay away.
This should be a good point to do the RL discussion though... In my opinion we can find better values than those picks. I'm not advocating big ML's either, there are a lot of games and lines to choose from.
Maybe a better adjustment would be looking further in to the big ML's before taking RL's. Why is the line so high, does the match up merit it, do the line ups merit it, and so on. I don't like taking them after the team won the night before.
Let me know your thought.... Your 0-0 tomorrow so you can have a great day.
ouch is right, but 3-0 lead with 1 out left. Make the pitch u usually make Holland! nope, boom 2 run triple. we gotta be better about what merits RL choices i believe. i know i need to see it better as well.
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ouch is right, but 3-0 lead with 1 out left. Make the pitch u usually make Holland! nope, boom 2 run triple. we gotta be better about what merits RL choices i believe. i know i need to see it better as well.
what's other peoples take on first 5 inning bets? so far i've been money with it (last couple days).. in my opinion we tend to know starting pitchers well, this bet eliminates the bullpens. and their usually at slightly better value than the ML.. especially if you take the -.5. for instance i had royals -.5 first 5 innings
seemed scary at first thinking not a lot of innings to score runs, but if you trust your matchups to win out.. it's almost like a little league game length wise lol.. but it's still best team on that day wins.
0
what's other peoples take on first 5 inning bets? so far i've been money with it (last couple days).. in my opinion we tend to know starting pitchers well, this bet eliminates the bullpens. and their usually at slightly better value than the ML.. especially if you take the -.5. for instance i had royals -.5 first 5 innings
seemed scary at first thinking not a lot of innings to score runs, but if you trust your matchups to win out.. it's almost like a little league game length wise lol.. but it's still best team on that day wins.
2-1 on the day. I'm grateful. Thread has picked it up nicely today. but I would've loved that 3-0 with the run line value! I don't usually play home teams by -1.5 but I'd been getting results thus far. Will definitely look for better picks in the future. Run lines is not how I prefer to bet anyhow, and tonight it bit me.
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2-1 on the day. I'm grateful. Thread has picked it up nicely today. but I would've loved that 3-0 with the run line value! I don't usually play home teams by -1.5 but I'd been getting results thus far. Will definitely look for better picks in the future. Run lines is not how I prefer to bet anyhow, and tonight it bit me.
what's other peoples take on first 5 inning bets? so far i've been money with it (last couple days).. in my opinion we tend to know starting pitchers well, this bet eliminates the bullpens. and their usually at slightly better value than the ML.. especially if you take the -.5. for instance i had royals -.5 first 5 innings
seemed scary at first thinking not a lot of innings to score runs, but if you trust your matchups to win out.. it's almost like a little league game length wise lol.. but it's still best team on that day wins.
The games you didn't win, Would you have won the last 5?
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Quote Originally Posted by ashylarrymp:
what's other peoples take on first 5 inning bets? so far i've been money with it (last couple days).. in my opinion we tend to know starting pitchers well, this bet eliminates the bullpens. and their usually at slightly better value than the ML.. especially if you take the -.5. for instance i had royals -.5 first 5 innings
seemed scary at first thinking not a lot of innings to score runs, but if you trust your matchups to win out.. it's almost like a little league game length wise lol.. but it's still best team on that day wins.
The games you didn't win, Would you have won the last 5?
nope, i'll monitor that though, good stat to keep track of, games that i lost after 5 innings, but would have won if i just taken ML.. see if it eventually evens out
it's good to feel 1 step ahead lol
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nope, i'll monitor that though, good stat to keep track of, games that i lost after 5 innings, but would have won if i just taken ML.. see if it eventually evens out
Paying the juice to back Price against a struggling lineup. Chicago strikes out a lot lately and Tampa should be able to give Price a couple run cushion off of Axelrod.
TOR Blue Jays ML -105
Dickey is getting better with his strike throwing. Should be able to keep Yankee bats whiffing enough to win this one. Phil Hughes and sweep fade. Edge to Toronto bullpen.
SEA Mariners ML -120
Seattle is a dangerous team when their lineup gets hot, like it has the past week. Iwakuma will get plenty of K's in this one. Fading Vargas.
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natalieportman9 38-38 +43$
TB Rays ML -140
Paying the juice to back Price against a struggling lineup. Chicago strikes out a lot lately and Tampa should be able to give Price a couple run cushion off of Axelrod.
TOR Blue Jays ML -105
Dickey is getting better with his strike throwing. Should be able to keep Yankee bats whiffing enough to win this one. Phil Hughes and sweep fade. Edge to Toronto bullpen.
SEA Mariners ML -120
Seattle is a dangerous team when their lineup gets hot, like it has the past week. Iwakuma will get plenty of K's in this one. Fading Vargas.
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