Villanueva keeps the anemic marlines bats in check, an improved BP of late adds great value as well, while the bats with Castro and Rizzo does enough for the W.
0
MikeTizzy 33-24-2 +1061$
CHI Cubs ML -113
Villanueva keeps the anemic marlines bats in check, an improved BP of late adds great value as well, while the bats with Castro and Rizzo does enough for the W.
Villanueva keeps the anemic marlines bats in check, an improved BP of late adds great value as well, while the bats with Castro and Rizzo does enough for the W.
Can't tail here...game already in Bot 1st...dang!
0
Quote Originally Posted by MikeTizzy:
MikeTizzy 33-24-2 +1061$
CHI Cubs ML -113
Villanueva keeps the anemic marlines bats in check, an improved BP of late adds great value as well, while the bats with Castro and Rizzo does enough for the W.
This should be a good point to do the RL discussion though... In my opinion we can find better values than those picks. I'm not advocating big ML's either, there are a lot of games and lines to choose from.
Maybe a better adjustment would be looking further in to the big ML's before taking RL's. Why is the line so high, does the match up merit it, do the line ups merit it, and so on. I don't like taking them after the team won the night before.
Let me know your thought.... Your 0-0 tomorrow so you can have a great day.
I saw this last night and wanted to respond. I hate betting RL. I understand why people do it, and when there is an apparent mismatch it can be the only way to get any value when betting on the favorite, but I typically stay away. It burns me when my team wins by one run, but I still lose. Teams don't strategize at the end of games how to protect a two-run lead. And if you're betting the home team you're betting they will outscore the road team by two runs in one fewer inning of work (since you'll lose the bottom of the 9th). If you really want to bet the favorite in situations like that one either pay the high juice or stay away altogether.
Ashylarrymp also asked about 5-inning wagers. I think these can be useful in certain spots. Because starting pitchers usually go 5-7 innings you're basically betting on (or against) the starting pitcher. Sometimes this can be used to an advantage. However, whenever you shorten the game you open the door to random stuff happening and mucking things up. One bad pitch can put a team in a 2-3 run hole, but they can easily come back and make it up later as the game plays out.
The better team usually wins a three-game series, but one individual game is less predictable. Shorten that one game to only 5 innings and it gets even harder to predict. [I think those one-inning wagers like "will there be a score in the 1st inning" are just plain stupid -- there's no handicapping at all, it's just betting on blind chance.] So the 5-inning wagers definitely have their place, in my opinion.
Sorry for the long-winded response, I just wanted to throw some opinions out there. Curious to know what others think...
0
Quote Originally Posted by Musicmatt1:
This should be a good point to do the RL discussion though... In my opinion we can find better values than those picks. I'm not advocating big ML's either, there are a lot of games and lines to choose from.
Maybe a better adjustment would be looking further in to the big ML's before taking RL's. Why is the line so high, does the match up merit it, do the line ups merit it, and so on. I don't like taking them after the team won the night before.
Let me know your thought.... Your 0-0 tomorrow so you can have a great day.
I saw this last night and wanted to respond. I hate betting RL. I understand why people do it, and when there is an apparent mismatch it can be the only way to get any value when betting on the favorite, but I typically stay away. It burns me when my team wins by one run, but I still lose. Teams don't strategize at the end of games how to protect a two-run lead. And if you're betting the home team you're betting they will outscore the road team by two runs in one fewer inning of work (since you'll lose the bottom of the 9th). If you really want to bet the favorite in situations like that one either pay the high juice or stay away altogether.
Ashylarrymp also asked about 5-inning wagers. I think these can be useful in certain spots. Because starting pitchers usually go 5-7 innings you're basically betting on (or against) the starting pitcher. Sometimes this can be used to an advantage. However, whenever you shorten the game you open the door to random stuff happening and mucking things up. One bad pitch can put a team in a 2-3 run hole, but they can easily come back and make it up later as the game plays out.
The better team usually wins a three-game series, but one individual game is less predictable. Shorten that one game to only 5 innings and it gets even harder to predict. [I think those one-inning wagers like "will there be a score in the 1st inning" are just plain stupid -- there's no handicapping at all, it's just betting on blind chance.] So the 5-inning wagers definitely have their place, in my opinion.
Sorry for the long-winded response, I just wanted to throw some opinions out there. Curious to know what others think...
not too much value with RL to, risk/reward ratio for deducting %'s on this outcome. Sox is doing nothing vs lefties, and Price on paper looks struggling but he is not, all those bats hes face prior to this game is like at least 2 grades better than the sox lineup. The depleted worn down pen of sox, will give up their share here. Price can get deep, and more talented pen shuts the door. Bats fair better vs Axelrod as well. And NO, Dunn wont hit another Homer or hit off a lefty of this caliber.
0
adding:
TB rays ML -135
not too much value with RL to, risk/reward ratio for deducting %'s on this outcome. Sox is doing nothing vs lefties, and Price on paper looks struggling but he is not, all those bats hes face prior to this game is like at least 2 grades better than the sox lineup. The depleted worn down pen of sox, will give up their share here. Price can get deep, and more talented pen shuts the door. Bats fair better vs Axelrod as well. And NO, Dunn wont hit another Homer or hit off a lefty of this caliber.
I saw this last night and wanted to respond. I hate betting RL. I understand why people do it, and when there is an apparent mismatch it can be the only way to get any value when betting on the favorite, but I typically stay away. It burns me when my team wins by one run, but I still lose. Teams don't strategize at the end of games how to protect a two-run lead. And if you're betting the home team you're betting they will outscore the road team by two runs in one fewer inning of work (since you'll lose the bottom of the 9th). If you really want to bet the favorite in situations like that one either pay the high juice or stay away altogether.
Ashylarrymp also asked about 5-inning wagers. I think these can be useful in certain spots. Because starting pitchers usually go 5-7 innings you're basically betting on (or against) the starting pitcher. Sometimes this can be used to an advantage. However, whenever you shorten the game you open the door to random stuff happening and mucking things up. One bad pitch can put a team in a 2-3 run hole, but they can easily come back and make it up later as the game plays out.
The better team usually wins a three-game series, but one individual game is less predictable. Shorten that one game to only 5 innings and it gets even harder to predict. [I think those one-inning wagers like "will there be a score in the 1st inning" are just plain stupid -- there's no handicapping at all, it's just betting on blind chance.] So the 5-inning wagers definitely have their place, in my opinion.
Sorry for the long-winded response, I just wanted to throw some opinions out there. Curious to know what others think...
exactly why i bet a lot of series bets! seems much more predictable than a game to game bet.. key just isn't to go overboard as you won't predict every series, BUT it can be profitable if you see one you can take advantage of..
but all in all i agree with your write up a lot! not a fan of 1st inning bets at all.. and learning -1.5 isn't worth it either, never feels good to lose by the 1 run.
0
Quote Originally Posted by washhead:
I saw this last night and wanted to respond. I hate betting RL. I understand why people do it, and when there is an apparent mismatch it can be the only way to get any value when betting on the favorite, but I typically stay away. It burns me when my team wins by one run, but I still lose. Teams don't strategize at the end of games how to protect a two-run lead. And if you're betting the home team you're betting they will outscore the road team by two runs in one fewer inning of work (since you'll lose the bottom of the 9th). If you really want to bet the favorite in situations like that one either pay the high juice or stay away altogether.
Ashylarrymp also asked about 5-inning wagers. I think these can be useful in certain spots. Because starting pitchers usually go 5-7 innings you're basically betting on (or against) the starting pitcher. Sometimes this can be used to an advantage. However, whenever you shorten the game you open the door to random stuff happening and mucking things up. One bad pitch can put a team in a 2-3 run hole, but they can easily come back and make it up later as the game plays out.
The better team usually wins a three-game series, but one individual game is less predictable. Shorten that one game to only 5 innings and it gets even harder to predict. [I think those one-inning wagers like "will there be a score in the 1st inning" are just plain stupid -- there's no handicapping at all, it's just betting on blind chance.] So the 5-inning wagers definitely have their place, in my opinion.
Sorry for the long-winded response, I just wanted to throw some opinions out there. Curious to know what others think...
exactly why i bet a lot of series bets! seems much more predictable than a game to game bet.. key just isn't to go overboard as you won't predict every series, BUT it can be profitable if you see one you can take advantage of..
but all in all i agree with your write up a lot! not a fan of 1st inning bets at all.. and learning -1.5 isn't worth it either, never feels good to lose by the 1 run.
Ogando and pen been off their game, bats cooling off while Correia is utmost consistent and matches up well vs TEX. superior pen adds value, and bats is very underated, they can hit.
0
last one:
MIN Twins -1.5 +230
Ogando and pen been off their game, bats cooling off while Correia is utmost consistent and matches up well vs TEX. superior pen adds value, and bats is very underated, they can hit.
I'm curious to see how this Twins / Rangers game plays out. I was very tempted to grab the Under 8.5. Everything seemed to be screaming UNDER. Two decent pitchers with solid GPAs, two teams who haven't been hitting well against each other, both teams resting guys on a Sunday afternoon...and a line that actually moved up from 8.0 to 8.5 It all seemed too suspicious so I laid off. Curious to see if I was on to something, or if I talked myself out of a solid play.
No score through 2 innings so far...
0
I'm curious to see how this Twins / Rangers game plays out. I was very tempted to grab the Under 8.5. Everything seemed to be screaming UNDER. Two decent pitchers with solid GPAs, two teams who haven't been hitting well against each other, both teams resting guys on a Sunday afternoon...and a line that actually moved up from 8.0 to 8.5 It all seemed too suspicious so I laid off. Curious to see if I was on to something, or if I talked myself out of a solid play.
such good value on lohse too, was definitely thinking about it.. he's capable of handling the dodgers hitters. tough betting against kershaw at home where he has a 1.32 era this year and 36-18 2.32 era all time at home.. sure under isn't good, albeit that low?
0
such good value on lohse too, was definitely thinking about it.. he's capable of handling the dodgers hitters. tough betting against kershaw at home where he has a 1.32 era this year and 36-18 2.32 era all time at home.. sure under isn't good, albeit that low?
Each contestant will state the time of his position converted to EST besides the copy of a trading position slip as to make it easy for those who follow - and will place it under the copy of the slip from his portfolio. Without the copy the position will not be entered.
After the trading position will be posted - in the following post the contestant will reason his trade.
We're doing this in order to better ourselves in trading binary options as we're doing in MLB and NBA.
First week will be a running the system week when we will learn together how to improve the format and the timing.
Each contestant will state the time of his position converted to EST besides the copy of a trading position slip as to make it easy for those who follow - and will place it under the copy of the slip from his portfolio. Without the copy the position will not be entered.
After the trading position will be posted - in the following post the contestant will reason his trade.
We're doing this in order to better ourselves in trading binary options as we're doing in MLB and NBA.
First week will be a running the system week when we will learn together how to improve the format and the timing.
This line seems a little inflated due to the first two games of the series going over. Two solid pitchers, some wind and inclement weather in Detroit, and two teams that haven't been hitting well lately are a recipe for a low scoring tight game.
Nice call on the Twins, Tizzy. If I hadn't over-analyzed I would have hit that Under.
0
washhead 7-8-2 -100$
Under 8.0 DET Tigers - ATL Braves -115
This line seems a little inflated due to the first two games of the series going over. Two solid pitchers, some wind and inclement weather in Detroit, and two teams that haven't been hitting well lately are a recipe for a low scoring tight game.
Nice call on the Twins, Tizzy. If I hadn't over-analyzed I would have hit that Under.
Mavin, I didnt post the reasoning as you know but since it was my first real post in this thread could you count these picks and my next picks will have reasoning. The reasoning might not be that good but my partner and I's system has been proven and did go 3-0 on my first post...And I did not post today because no plays cualified for my system and would not risk posting bad picks for everyone.
0
Quote Originally Posted by aleiverson02:
With that said if oyu take this:
aleiverson02 0-0
Over Yankees/Toronto 7.5 -110
Over SF/SD 7.5 -110
Over MIL/LAD 7.5 -110
Mavin, I didnt post the reasoning as you know but since it was my first real post in this thread could you count these picks and my next picks will have reasoning. The reasoning might not be that good but my partner and I's system has been proven and did go 3-0 on my first post...And I did not post today because no plays cualified for my system and would not risk posting bad picks for everyone.
and looks like the Sox pen did die as they were inferior in matchup.
and Yes, jus because Rangers havnt lost 2 all yr, doesnt mean a thing in this particular matchup. pen didnt matchup, neither did Ogando. Correia does what he does, and has the pen to back him. Rangers aren't in Arlington as well. But i missed the Under at gametime, i did remember earlier i had that on my notes.
0
thanks wash!
and looks like the Sox pen did die as they were inferior in matchup.
and Yes, jus because Rangers havnt lost 2 all yr, doesnt mean a thing in this particular matchup. pen didnt matchup, neither did Ogando. Correia does what he does, and has the pen to back him. Rangers aren't in Arlington as well. But i missed the Under at gametime, i did remember earlier i had that on my notes.
wow Kershaw really gets comfy at home. It seems like the top tier Aces when needs to be relied on badly,(King Felix lvl) cus of poor starts or bad/worn pen, or whatever reasons. They really step up big. This yr and last 2 years, he does really loves home. Im totally shocked and gotta tip my cap, Brewers been doin nothin but bash up lefties, i felt if they could get Kershaw out by 6th, hav a real shot vs that pen. But Kershaw's dominance changes all that. Nothing Lohse could do more this game. 2 solo shots to Crawford, GG.
0
wow Kershaw really gets comfy at home. It seems like the top tier Aces when needs to be relied on badly,(King Felix lvl) cus of poor starts or bad/worn pen, or whatever reasons. They really step up big. This yr and last 2 years, he does really loves home. Im totally shocked and gotta tip my cap, Brewers been doin nothin but bash up lefties, i felt if they could get Kershaw out by 6th, hav a real shot vs that pen. But Kershaw's dominance changes all that. Nothing Lohse could do more this game. 2 solo shots to Crawford, GG.
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