(34-15) +73.76 units in 6 days

What book are you using?

Heritage let’s you select whether you are laying action regardless, or if one team’s named pitcher starts, or the other’s, or both.

Mets game was just cancelled.

@playing4mylife

 Appreciate the referral on the book.  I will be setting up other book accounts soon as I'm seriously burnt by this situation.

If anyone wants to possibly get the referral bonus when I sign up, just private message me your referral link.

If I use it, then you get the bonus.

I will accept all friend requests so you can send me the DM.

@soccergal

 Well, that makes me very sad.

I was particularly looking forward to that game.

Cleveland at Boston.  Allen vs Sale.

Chris Sale is not the Sale of old times.  By old times I mean a year or two ago.  Which is an eternity in baseball.

He can't miss a bat anymore.  This year he has an 8.22 ERA and 1.74 WHIP despite a 30:10 K:BB through 23 innings.

His last 3 games he has a 6.60 ERA and 1.60 WHIP.

Allen is a rookie who had a nice first start.  He has a 1.50 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in that single game.  Not much to go on.

But the books seem to believe this game will be competitive.  Maybe because the Red Sox are a much better hitting team than the Indians.

The line opened at Boston -135 and has drifted down to -125 this morning.

I'm going to have to lean with the Indians here.  The Red Sox hitters have not seen Logan Allen before and that can be a problem at times.

Chris Sale will get hit today.  I'm pretty sure of that.

Again, just a lean for now.

Seattle at Toronto.  Marco Gonzales vs Chris Bassitt.

Mr. Gonzales is sneaky good.  2.16 ERA and 1.14 WHIP over his last 3.  Mr. Bassitt is also good with a 1.93 ERA and 0.91 WHIP over his last 3.

Bassitt has had some problems with left handed hitting batters this year with them hitting .300 vs him.

Toronto is the much better hitting team in this matchup.  But I have noticed this production comes in bursts.  They can lay an egg hitting at any time.

The Blue Jays do have a nice 6 game winning streak and Bassitt, in particular, pitches much better at home.

But this is a game where the Mariners should be competitive.  The value in this game lies with the ML at +170 and RL +1.5 at +115.

For now, this is a lean.  But I will be watching this one carefully.

I thought you played Cleveland overnight?

Ad- enjoy the breakdowns and transparency 

@Wingit

 Lol

Lol are you even betting real money? First you bet Cleveland overnight now it’s a lean? thanks for breaking down what a parlay is like this isn’t a sports bet page lmao. 

Los Angeles Angels vs Milwaukee Brewers.  Suarez vs Rea.

Mr. Suarez is just bad at this thing called "pitching".  I'm more than a bit amazed that they keep throwing him out there.  Like a bad penny, he always returns it seems.

He has a 9.49 ERA and 2.43 WHIP over his last 3 starts.  Even the Oakland A's beat him up hard.

Mr. Rea has a strange anomaly.  He is a right handed pitcher who is better vs left handed batters than right handed batters.  Lefties bat .154 vs him while righties .264.

Unfortunately for him, the Angels only have 2 lefties hitting today.

I'm expecting quite a few runs in this game today.  The OVER 9.5 is worthy of consideration.  The Brewers side would be a lean as well just because Suarez is just so terrible.

A couple of leans for now.  Nothing set in stone on this one yet.

@Wingit

whoops 

@Wingit

 Great catch!

And here I thought nobody was paying attention. LOL.

You are correct Sir!

No lean in that game, we are locked in.

Sale is going down today.

@Make-It-Rain

 Nothing wrong with being a "glass half empty" guy.

You are loved and wanted in this thread, my friend.

As the saying goes, mistakes were made.  And me, as a seasoned citizen, can make a few now and then.

I'm hoping my body of work makes up for the here and there error.

Appreciate your patience with me!

Working diligently at being more selective today.

Grinding.

I hated those 7 losses yesterday with a purple passion hotter than the sun.

So my focus is on that and not ancient history like what I posted last night.

So, my bad.  As the kids say.

Moving forward.

Kansas City Royals at Minnesota Twins.  Brady Singer vs Sonny Gray.

Mr. Singer had his best outing of the year at Arizona last start.  However, it only reduced his poor numbers a bit.

Last 3 starts he has a 7.88 ERA and 1.50 WHIP.  Righties are batting a massive .333 vs him this year. He does pitch much better on the road so there's that.

Sonny Gray is just elite.  Definitely top 3 starter in the game right now.  I could throw all the metrics at you but just one is the 18 whiffs he had vs the Yankees last outing. Stud.  Hitters just have a hard time making contact even.

Got to play this game and we're going to be a bit creative.

Minnesota Twins RL -1.5  -105 for 3 units

Minnesota Twins Team Total (TT) OVER 4.5  -105 for 3 units.

@AdVictoriam

 A little confused AV, so you forgot you locked in cleveland overnight is what it is?  it does sound and seem like you didnt bet anything overnight to then say only a lean on cleveland which inclines us bettors to believe you are not betting anything.....these sites make it impossible to discern who is legit and betting big money....how can one truly know so to have absolute confidence in following a poster as everyone is looking for a guy who knows how to pick winners, now that the mass hysteria is about to begin with followers about to come out of the woodwork.... a little concerning is all, but we all thank you immensely for your posts regardless of what we dont know what is truth from fiction but right now the truth is your picks are crushing, wether you bet 10-100 or 1000 or dont bet at all....

NYY at Texas Rangers.  Nestor Cortes vs Martin Perez.

I will just say up front that I have a bias against Martin Perez so keep that in mind.  He has burned me many times in the past so that flavors any analysis I give you. 

Even if I am not aware that I am doing it, it is there.

Mr. Cortes is very good.  He has yet to give up more than three earned runs in any of his five starts this year and has a 3.49 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and 28:5 K:BB over 28.1 innings.

His last 3 outings he has a 4.00 ERA and 0.94 WHIP.  The ERA is a bit deceiving here.  He is much more like his WHIP number.

Mr. Perez is 3-1 with a 2.60 ERA, 1.45 WHIP and 24:8 K:BB through his first five starts of the season.

Last 3 starts he is at a 2.65 ERA with a 1.41 WHIP.  Very good by any measure.

So why are the Yankees favored here?  And the line has drifted toward them slowly.

It's certainly not because of the Yankees hitting.  They have been slumping for quite a while now.  They are in the bottom third of the league as a team in almost every metric.

Texas would have to be the lean here at the +107 number.  Certainly has value.

Just a lean, for now.

@Emmaava1

 Your concerns are valid and understandable.

It was just a simple mistake as I have described.

And I certainly do wager real money on every one of these picks at a $100 = 1 unit rate.

If you have read all or most of my posts, I am hoping that it becomes clear over time that I am not like many who post on Covers.

I truly do the hard work.  I dig into the games.  I have an almost 50 year knowledge base of experience to draw upon that, in my opinion, can't be understated in its importance.

Understand that I am not investing all of this time and effort into this just to lose.  And certainly not to just "paper wager". 

But, it is up to each reader to discern whether or not I am a serious person or an idiot.

I'm certainly not charging for my services.

So there's that. LOL.

Thank you for your kind comments.

Great work AD. Just remember. Tons of degenerates in this forum wagweing mortgage money and will lay blame if ya lose. I see it already all these guys blind tailing and not doing any work on their own. Do your thing brother!!! Good luck

@Make-It-Rain

 Whi forced you to read this or play his plays. Relax karen and worry bout yourself

@AdVictoriam

 Sonny Gray didn't have 18Ks vs NYY, he had 8Ks in 7IP.  He's pitching great for sure.

Units won is very visible for everyone to see. Whether AD plays real $ or not should be no concern for us. AD is sharing his thoughts on the games and making solid picks. Last I checked this forum is free so why even care if he bets real $.  I was just confused about the lean, which was then explained later. 

@chitownjake007

 Got a very tough crowd in here it seems.

You make one little misstep and all of a sudden those 6 straight winning days and over +73 units don't mean sh... er... anything.

But you know what? 

That's fine with me.  Because I know how much this is helping people behind the scenes.

They don't all say something in the threads.

But someone got out of debt this week by tailing me.  Someone maybe even saved a marriage and their kids still have a father in the house.

That, my friend, is why I am here doing what I do.

Not for the degenerates.

Those stories will show up in here eventually.

They will fuel me to work harder and be better.

I will crush the books.  I guarantee it.

@bluecompass

 Ah.  Sorry for the typo there.

You are correct on the 8 strikeouts.