Starting the new thread for Sunday a bit early as the Colorado game has not finished yet.
However, I believe it's safe to say the Rockies will not be coming back to win that game. Terrible pick on my part.
Work has begun on the Sunday card.
Per usual, some gems will be found that must be bet on the overnight line.
I see a lot of you gentlemen are staying up late, burning the midnight oil.
As am I, pouring over stacks of baseball information.
I'm going to start with 4 plays that I believe we need to get locked in tonight.
Mainly because, the wrong team is favored.
A bold statement, but I think I will back it up with a high percentage of winners tomorrow.
As always, there are no guarantees and variance will again take away some of our winners.
But as long as we post that lovely (+) sign on our units at the end of the day, life will remain golden.
Lets get to it.
Cleveland Indians ML +110 for 3 units.
Washington Nationals +122 for 3 units.
Detroit Tigers +131 for 3 units.
St. Louis Cardinals +126 for 3 units.
You might have noticed this resembles some of the postings for the overnight plays from early in the week.
That is because I am getting back to basics. The home run shot was today. It went "OK" but I really didn't like seeing that big number 7 in my loss column.
11-7 just made me feel "dirty".
So, no more of that. Going back to what got this off to a great start. The overnight DOG parade!
Let's lock these in tonight and sleep well. Faves will come tomorrow and we have some rock solid ones looking good.
I've decided to play a lottery ticket tomorrow.
Otherwise known as a "parlay" wager.
You may or may not be familiar with this type of wager. This is where you combine 2 or more teams into one wager and you get increased payouts and odds since you are attempting to predict multiple winners on one ticket.
These can pay quite well. But, as you may imagine, they are VERY difficult to win.
So I'm going to advise you up front to treat it as a lottery ticket.
Don't put a large amount of money on it.
Since I have had a good week, I'm going to put $100 on this lottery ticket. You definitely don't have to do that to enjoy it.
A $20 bill on this, if it hits, will absolutely be a ton of fun for you and your bankroll. Even $10.
6 team MLB parlay. $100 wager pays $2,862.
Chicago Cubs -165
Tampa Bay Devil Rays -198
Atlanta Braves -172
Minnesota Twins -217
Detroit Tigers +135
St. Louis Cardinals +125
The first thing you might notice is that is has a lot of big chalk favorites. 4 to be exact.
One of the ways, other than the RL, to play big favorites is to parlay them together to improve the payout and reduce your out of pocket money.
The thinking being that since they are highly favored to win, they are solid parlay picks with high chances of all winning on the ML.
But you can't have ALL huge chalks in a 6 team parlay or it won't pay much and won't be nearly as fun when you hit it.
So you throw in a couple of dogs to raise up the payout.
And since I believe those are probably the two strongest dogs tomorrow, they made the list.
Now, a word of caution. Maybe more than a word of caution. Lol.
Don't take these huge favorites and think "Oh, he has them in that big parlay so they MUST be plays for tomorrow as well."
Not so fast my good man!
They may or may not be plays tomorrow. If I do play any of them, it will be on the RL most likely.
But a parlay like this is a good way to get action spread out across the card that you might not automatically play as a straight wager.
And, the OTHER word of caution. Again, this is money that you HIGHLY likely will never see again. Parlays are -EV and bad wagers. The books LOVE parlay players and encourage them big time.
I want to make it clear that I am NOT making a habit of this and not encouraging YOU to make a habit of it.
Once a week or so, I allow myself an indiscretion like this. Maybe once every 2 weeks. It literally is like lighting a $100 on fire and watching it burn.
But, I am a secret action junkie and the tiger has to be let out of the box now and then. Lol.
@AdVictoriam
Hey AV, thanks so much for sharing.....i wanted to give you some info that could maybe help you, not that you need it.... for example type in your google bar....logan allen pitch types....then some sites will pop up and theres one site that i really like called Baseballsavant.com ....when you click on that it gives so much info on the pitcher as you scroll down.....i thought if nothing else it may or may not give you some added advantages with your baseball knowledge....
@cbbanalysts
The starting pitchers for SF/SD yesterday were much worse statistically than the two starting today, Cobb and Darvish.
Of course, there will be an overreaction to the huge over yesterday and recency bias will push the public to hit the OVER button again today.
I would lean under.
Probably not playing it though.
Time to get to work.
Probably should have hit this favorite last night as the line has moved up.
But that's not a bad thing necessarily.
Chicago Cubs ML -166 for 3 units.
Chicago Cubs RL -1.5 +100 for 3 units.
Steele vs Hoeing. Steele has been pitching at an elite level this season and he has been very steady. Hoeing not so much, however, he is a rookie making his 2nd start so not unexpected he would have some troubles.
I could quote a ton of stats but its not necessary. Simply put this is a massive mismatch. F5 would also be worthy of consideration.
You may remember from yesterday my sad story regarding my book voiding the winning totals wager on the Cincy/Oakland OVER because it auto posts as a listed play.
If you have a pitching change, they void the wager and you have to be watching to put it back in under the new pitchers.
A complete angle shoot in my opinion. Totally a ripoff.
You should be able to select action or listed just like on a straight wager, but they won't allow that.
Welp, had that exact thing happen AGAIN with the RL wager in the Tampa Bay Devil Rays game.
Apparently the RL is also on that same BS rule. And because they changed from Cherinos starting the game to Faucher, my winning bets were voided.
I actually knew about that before the game, but didn't realize that rule applied to the RL wagers as well.
So I have lost over 10 units this week to this rip off rule.
Be aware. Also, help this old man out if you spot a pitching change before the game starts.
I have so much going on. Its easy to miss those changes.
Established in 1995,
Hot Forum Topics
