🤢🥴💩_ Fubah's risky baseball bets _🥶😲🥵

  Detroit's VALDEZ . . . 

had a good outing vs Boston, followed by a BAD outing vs Cinci, 

then a good outing vs Atlanta, followed by a BAD outing vs BoSox, 

then a good outing vs Mets, followed by a BAD outing vs Cleveland, 

then a good outing vs Orioles, followed by a BAD outing vs CWS, 

then a good outing vs Seattle, followed by a BAD outing vs Minny in his last start.

Today vs Houston . . . 

Brewskies -144 @pinn   *BB      ...I have them for a solid +1.2 run edge today.

Texas -136 @pinn  *BB                ...I have them for a solid +1.1 run edge today.

Quote Originally Posted by ramco:

@ramco

BoL with your bets today! 

Starter Logan GILBERT (Seattle) has an excellent 1.04 ERA on the ROAD 

... but a 5.60 ERA at HOME in Seattle  

Today he is at HOME in Seattle vs the #7 team in MLB for runs scored.

Angels/ Dbacks bats are about even at this venue....Angels have the better starter, but much worse bullpen.  Coin-flipper = PASS

Pitty +123 @pinn  "value bet"     ... not expected to win; only ~47% chance 

Tiggers +133 @pinn  "value bet"    ... NOT expected to win; only about 45% chance

Detroit Eh hmmm I dont see it but you the Man fub! 

I cant trust this pitcher ok GUESS will find out g.l Boss

@fubah2

 Thanks, I just might put a little jingle on the Brewskies today..  

Ok......Jingle all the way      

Yep....I don't see it either, as they only have a 45% chance to win (55% chance they will likely lose)

Would love to see you post more unders, you did pretty good last night. Best of luck tonight!

Tracking my leans yesterday I had 3 unders circled (which I did not bet) that stayed under (one other bet that was posted lost)  Tonight I am leaning (for tracking purposes only; not a pick/bet though) to SF/ATL probably staying under 9......

BoL with your bets today 

Thanks! Nice, two unders I'm looking at the moment are Padres/Cards and Rays/Dodgers, maybe 1st 5 even. BOL!

I have no skin in the game so I wish you luck ....My stats suggest TB/LAD might have a slightly better shot at staying no worse than 8 runs (though neither looks particularly strong for an under......Could consider Toro/BOS as well but must be 8 or better....though I am tracking it, I won't bet it...

Today, I have 3 "value bets" in play but no diea which will win or if any will win.

Marlins, Tiggers, Pitty

Rockies +RL bet is laying significant negative juice so not a value bet for me but I only show the Cardiac Cubs with a very small edge tonight and I prefer to opt for the extra cushion with a +1.5 RL than risk a SU win...

GASSER (lefty for Ole Milwaukee) has only had 4 starts.

He personally pitched well in game #1, then followed that with a BAD outing in game #2 vs the powerful Dodgers. But followed that with another GOOD performance against GIANTS, only to follow that with a BAD outing on the road in his 4th game.

#1 GOOD

#2   BAD     vs Dodgers

#3 GOOD

#4   BAD

#5   ?

So far his stats show he is much stronger facing RIGHTY bats (a bit unusual for a lefty) though this is a very small sample size.  Nevertheless, 3 things:

1/ he is facing a weak team which is 5th from the bottom in ability to score runs 

2/ Cleveland in a slump at the plate recently, and

3/ Cleveland is sending up a lineup to face him which is mostly RIGHTY

THAT  and Brewskies avg around 5.5 rpg - which is tops in MLB for a home team

Do you play to risk 1 unit on favorites  ? Or win 1 unit ?

@Rockytoptn4life

 My actual bet sizes vary quite a bit, but ~ 2% - 3% of my BR is most common, and I usually but not always LAY the negative juice on favs.

However, for recording my handicapping skills (or lack thereof)  all favs are scored to win one unit (loses are counted at whatever the juice was)  and all plus $$ picks are scored to win that amount (or lose one unit).

That is generally regarded as the "consensus standard" for scoring one's record.

@fubah2

 Thanks very much sir 

@fubah2

@fubah2

 Great Night Thank You

@fubah2

 Cool, thanks again.. Nabbed it w/ the Brewskies! 

Eto ochen' khoroshaya igra..!