Posted:
#5626
Liked the Reds also, lineup looked a little different..
We ride the Nats tonight..
🤢🥴💩_ Fubah's risky baseball bets _🥶😲🥵
Posted:
#5627
June 15:
HOT STREAK WARNING! 
BURNS, Cinci
This STARTER is riding a tenuous 9-game HOT STREAK, 
WITHOUT a BAD outing in that streak .....YET!
...but this should be anticipated to end at anytime!!! 
Make no mistake, this dude and others I will identify in the future are GOOD starters - some of them exceptional! HOWEVER, probability says "consecutive streaks won't last long" especially AFTER 7 straight w/o a "bad outing"....All GOOD pitchers will, from time to time, have an "off" day and get roughed up - sometimes mauled - before they resume their stellar pitching performances again. 
Best to avoid!
CAVEAT: even if the starter has a "bad outing" doesn't guarantee his team will lose! It just seriously weakens their chances! But his team's bats could come thru with a lot of runs to save the day.....maybe! You decide.
Posted:
#5629
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Angels +123 @pinn "value bet" ...might win but not expected to win!
Angels +123 @pinn "value bet" ...might win but not expected to win!
Reminder: my "value bets" are COIN-FLIPPERS! ~ 50/50 either side, but the value is in taking the PLUS $$$ to accumaulate profit over the course of the season -- but not any particular game.... 50% chance either way....
Posted:
#5632
Quote Originally Posted by googotts:
REDS are killing them
REDS are killing them
Yep 
Myers had a solid 1.08 WHIP stats as a RP but just *IMPLODED* allowing 7 on and 7 ER in only 1.3 ip
There goes my under.....
Gaaaadz I hate unders! Yet I have leans Cubs, Dbacks, and LAD games all staying under (a single/higher integer total)
Posted:
#5633
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Quote Originally Posted by googotts: REDS are killing them Yep Myers had a solid 1.08 WHIP stats as a RP but just *IMPLODED* allowing 7 on and 7 ER in only 1.3 ip There goes my under..... Gaaaadz I hate unders! Yet I have leans Cubs, Dbacks, and LAD games all staying under (a single/higher integer total)
Quote Originally Posted by googotts: REDS are killing them Yep Myers had a solid 1.08 WHIP stats as a RP but just *IMPLODED* allowing 7 on and 7 ER in only 1.3 ip There goes my under..... Gaaaadz I hate unders! Yet I have leans Cubs, Dbacks, and LAD games all staying under (a single/higher integer total)
But Cinci has signaled a reversal from their recent slump at the plate...
Posted:
#5636
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Cubbies -208 @pinn *BB ...Tailing NOT recommended! 
...I HATE "guesswork!" Hunches; gut-feel; guesses! It's a detriment to sound capping. When I guess, I usually LOSE. That said, I'm playing a hunch/guess here ...and it may well be HIGH RISK! Imanaga *was* a strong starter....then ran into 4 consecutive BAD outings before righting the ship (hopefully) last week against these same Rockies - who are otherwise batting fairly well recently btw, while the Cubs are not so great! Normally I would PASS on this BECAUSE of the suspect bats of the Cubbies - who may or may not show up for the game tonight!
But my gut-feel/hunch thinks Imanaga might be returning to his old self and same for the Cubs bats, while the Rockies are about to come back down to Earth.......Of course I could be wrong....and wouldn't be surprised if this blows up in my face to teach me a lesson about "guessing/hunches"
... sigh ... ....had a good night going ....BUT playing a hunch bet killed it.
Posted:
#5637
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Cubbies -208 @pinn *BB ...Tailing NOT recommended! ...I HATE "guesswork!" Hunches; gut-feel; guesses! It's a detriment to sound capping. When I guess, I usually LOSE. That said, I'm playing a hunch/guess here ...and it may well be HIGH RISK! Imanaga *was* a strong starter....then ran into 4 consecutive BAD outings before righting the ship (hopefully) last week against these same Rockies - who are otherwise batting fairly well recently btw, while the Cubs are not so great! Normally I would PASS on this BECAUSE of the suspect bats of the Cubbies - who may or may not show up for the game tonight! But my gut-feel/hunch thinks Imanaga might be returning to his old self and same for the Cubs bats, while the Rockies are about to come back down to Earth.......Of course I could be wrong....and wouldn't be surprised if this blows up in my face to teach me a lesson about "guessing/hunches" ... sigh ... ....had a good night going ....BUT playing a hunch bet killed it.
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Cubbies -208 @pinn *BB ...Tailing NOT recommended! ...I HATE "guesswork!" Hunches; gut-feel; guesses! It's a detriment to sound capping. When I guess, I usually LOSE. That said, I'm playing a hunch/guess here ...and it may well be HIGH RISK! Imanaga *was* a strong starter....then ran into 4 consecutive BAD outings before righting the ship (hopefully) last week against these same Rockies - who are otherwise batting fairly well recently btw, while the Cubs are not so great! Normally I would PASS on this BECAUSE of the suspect bats of the Cubbies - who may or may not show up for the game tonight! But my gut-feel/hunch thinks Imanaga might be returning to his old self and same for the Cubs bats, while the Rockies are about to come back down to Earth.......Of course I could be wrong....and wouldn't be surprised if this blows up in my face to teach me a lesson about "guessing/hunches" ... sigh ... ....had a good night going ....BUT playing a hunch bet killed it.
Well I'll be HORNSWOGGLED....the Cardiac Cubs did it in the bottom of the 9th, AGAIN! This turns around what I figured was a sure loss into snatching a win from the jaws of defeat.
Posted:
#5638
Monday, June 15:
W Philly -185 @pinn *BB
W Wash -127 @pinn *BB
W Cards -159 @pinn
W Cards TT ov 2.5 -325 @SIA
L NYM/Cinci un 9 -124 @pinn ...almost a *BB but I'm skittish with unders!
L Mets +121 @pinn "value bet" ...only about 46.3% chance to win
W KC/Wash both score 2+ YES -425 ...teeters on whether KC will score 2; Wash will
W Cubbies -208 @pinn *BB ...high risk; Tailing NOT recommended!
pending...Angels +123 @pinn "value bet"
Posted:
#5640
Quote Originally Posted by CAPPERCOM:
@fubah2 crazy unnecessary bottom of the 8th Cincy 3 run homerun to screw the O/9 push pooch that had lasted all the way back to the 2nd inning lol.. np thank u for solid capping
@fubah2 crazy unnecessary bottom of the 8th Cincy 3 run homerun to screw the O/9 push pooch that had lasted all the way back to the 2nd inning lol.. np thank u for solid capping
Yeaah lost a push after an unlucky start......but otoh gained a lucky win with the Cardiac Cubs in the bottom of the 9th, so it all evened out....
impossible to predict which team's bats will show up for game 2 so not even gonna bother trying to cap this (guessing would be heavily involved
Posted:
#5644
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Mets @Cinci ...confusing starters; impossible to predict which team's bats will show up for game 2 so not even gonna bother trying to cap this (guessing would be heavily involved and that is unwise)
Braves -157 @pinn *BB ...barely made the mark for *BB status
Mets @Cinci ...confusing starters; impossible to predict which team's bats will show up for game 2 so not even gonna bother trying to cap this (guessing would be heavily involved and that is unwise)
Posted:
#5645
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Mets @Cinci ...confusing starters; impossible to predict which team's bats will show up for game 2 so not even gonna bother trying to cap this (guessing would be heavily involved and that is unwise)Braves -157 @pinn *BB ...barely made the mark for *BB status
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Mets @Cinci ...confusing starters; impossible to predict which team's bats will show up for game 2 so not even gonna bother trying to cap this (guessing would be heavily involved and that is unwise)Braves -157 @pinn *BB ...barely made the mark for *BB status
That assumes the game gets played w/o a long rain delay...
Posted:
#5649
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Colorado +1.5 -120 @B365 ...missed the cut for a *BB; but Cardiac Cubs will likely win a close one
Colorado +1.5 -120 @B365 ...missed the cut for a *BB; but Cardiac Cubs will likely win a close one
On the ML this game would NORMALLY qualify as a "value bet" as I have Cubs pegged for only a small +0.3 run edge......However, that number is subject to wide variance. Cubs bats could finally show up for a game (or not)....OR....their beatdown of Feltner last time may or may not be repeated.... OR the Rockies bats could get to a below avg Cabrera.... I need less variance and more consistency in the numbers, hence not a "value bet" but a regular bet on the +RL...
No guarantees though!! Ya payz yer money and ya takes yer chances...
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