June Stock Talk V "Onwards and Upwards"

If you bought a basket of beaten down stocks and had a 5 yr horizon I am sure you would beat the SPX for sure, if you did homework.

I would think the KBE would be the best way to play the banking group safest.

GE is diversified enough but man do they have a TON of debt.

The banks may look bad and yeah you could lose on some, but these banks arent going away and if you had a sample of banks with different risks associated, you WILL beat the SPX over a 5 yr period.

I know you like the banks with no exposure but where is the capital gains on those? Or the dividend?

At our ages we need to take some risks versus hiding money in the mattress or buying stocks with no risk.

CC,

You are on the furthest edge of the scale..you have to admit that.

Taking risks is part of life, you cannot take the money with you and it wont grow sitting in a mattress.

This bounce doesnt look impressive so far..very weak.

The banks may look bad and yeah you could lose on some, but these banks arent going away and if you had a sample of banks with different risks associated, you WILL beat the SPX over a 5 yr period.
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if i told you a year ago that BSC would be under and sold for $2 you would have never in a million years believed me

the problem is, none of these banks even know their risks since the mkts they had traded in have stopped working. they cant price what the own

Koaj,

The practice of a stop loss would be part of purchasing any individual stock, add that the KBE takes some risk out of the transaction since it is diversified.

To be honest when Bear started to tank I really didnt know enough about it to make a decision outside a trading position, so a tight stop would have been in place and it would have been a losing trade.

Notice I am not referring to most ANY tech when discussing value. I dont see screaming value out there in tech yet, that might come later in the first part of next year.

GM could bounce to 20 and it wouldnt shock me.

It could also go to 6-7 and it wouldnt shock me.

That dividend looks interesting but man do I dislike owning a stock that I think is inferior in a sector..meaning Honda and Toyota are really the only car stocks I would want to own.

I would put out GE as the 10 yr stock..4.5% divi means a 10 yr return would almost be a 50% move based on the divi alone.

I really dislike GE..no question about it so the play is based on investing versus liking the company.

I would also put KBE on that list.

i have a question regarding bank cdo's have the banks sorted this mess out .. i assume the answer is no. i just dont know much about it. how are they going to know what there cdo's are worth..

how are they going to know what there cdo's are worth..
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they dont...those markets for the most part have ceased trading. there's no buyers

how much is something worth if there's no buyers?

 Wow,

 CC really shocked me when I read this, picking GM for  the ten year out bet...I think they are headed to bankruptcy, and they well deserve to be there.A textbook example of how not to run a company.

 If something has no buyers it is either priceless or worthless in the art world. In the financial world those instruments are worthless.

 In ten years, can we more or less agree that:

  The US will be a debtor nation, further in debt.
. The dollar will be worth less than it is presently, worth    much, much less than presently.
  The demand for commodities will rise exponentially.
  The need for energy will also rise exponentially
 The most rapidly developing nations will be in Asia while the slowest growth will occur in the US and Western Europe..
 

 What companies are poised to take best advantage of these trends? They need not be HQ'd in ny one area, but they had better be operating under those assumptions.

 



 

Now don't get touchy CC, hell you may be right bro, but I really do think GM is a miserably run company,and will remain so.Who knows.

Of WSC list I like VLO and that is about it.

 But I am not one who likes to determine which is the best of beaten up stocks...never have been able to do so consistently.

 

 PS

 I own some GE so I hope that has a shot, but frankly Koaj's reaction to it mirrors my own. I bought it a long time ago and just have kept it through this disaster.

 OK for 100 rocks in a currency to be determined later..

Claycourt,

I suggest you live in a single level home for the next 10 yrs.

 
 Personally I thought CC  was living in either a bunker in the Blue Ridge (maybe next to the old one they had for the Pres) or in a bomb shelter.

  The not so secret stach of post bomb Federal bills is housed in Culpeper off Rt 29 CC..we can bet them, but they are not printed like the old ones...