I agree with you WSC.......the broad market, from this level where it closed on June 26, probably is flat to slightly down on Dec 31, 2008.
But..........there is a ton of negativity right now. Get a whoosh down open (like 700 points on Dow) with reports of people jumping out of windows, and manipulators (who have more ammo than one can imagine.....even still) could have a field day dropping nuclear weapons on short positions.
I agree with you WSC.......the broad market, from this level where it closed on June 26, probably is flat to slightly down on Dec 31, 2008.
But..........there is a ton of negativity right now. Get a whoosh down open (like 700 points on Dow) with reports of people jumping out of windows, and manipulators (who have more ammo than one can imagine.....even still) could have a field day dropping nuclear weapons on short positions.
Anyone ever listen to Coast to Coast AM late night? Used to be hosted by Art Bell, but now hosted by some bozo.
Anyway.........it's on right now, and the guest yapping is about as negative as a heroin addict about to jump out a window. It's quite funny how gloomy this guy is.
Anyone ever listen to Coast to Coast AM late night? Used to be hosted by Art Bell, but now hosted by some bozo.
Anyway.........it's on right now, and the guest yapping is about as negative as a heroin addict about to jump out a window. It's quite funny how gloomy this guy is.
I don't see much reason for any sustained pop. I will say there has been a return of activity in state (VA) testing/licensing activity in tradesmen and and contracting areas. When the absolute bottom hit there was absolutely no one coming through.So for whatever reason, there has been a partial recovery.Given this state, it is probably simply government/military funded.
Otherwise, no. Not to be a broken record, but we are paying the real tab for decades of energy illiteracy. Ignorance may be bliss, but bliss is very expensive.
I don't see much reason for any sustained pop. I will say there has been a return of activity in state (VA) testing/licensing activity in tradesmen and and contracting areas. When the absolute bottom hit there was absolutely no one coming through.So for whatever reason, there has been a partial recovery.Given this state, it is probably simply government/military funded.
Otherwise, no. Not to be a broken record, but we are paying the real tab for decades of energy illiteracy. Ignorance may be bliss, but bliss is very expensive.
The Morgan Stanley guy has exactly one week to clear 150 rocks a barrel. If it don't hit that target or go through it in 7 days, his ass is gonna' be canned.
Speaking of oil........
The Morgan Stanley guy has exactly one week to clear 150 rocks a barrel. If it don't hit that target or go through it in 7 days, his ass is gonna' be canned.
I think Mr Morgan Stanley Oil Man is going to be wrong. Oh yeah, oil will pass 150 in time, but the iceholes otherwise known as "US Congressmen" will yap all next week about "speculators" in oil and jawbone it all down.
A mideast blow up, though, would make cold the blow hard hot air from Congress, who I don't think, recesses until after July 4???? Whenever they do, it'd be best if they just stay permanently in recess. What a gaggle of incompetence is the US Congress. Cognitive dissonance running amok is what it is.
Today is going to be choppy, methinks. No real buying.......just "speculators" covering short positions and taking money off the table ahead of the weekend.
I think Mr Morgan Stanley Oil Man is going to be wrong. Oh yeah, oil will pass 150 in time, but the iceholes otherwise known as "US Congressmen" will yap all next week about "speculators" in oil and jawbone it all down.
A mideast blow up, though, would make cold the blow hard hot air from Congress, who I don't think, recesses until after July 4???? Whenever they do, it'd be best if they just stay permanently in recess. What a gaggle of incompetence is the US Congress. Cognitive dissonance running amok is what it is.
Today is going to be choppy, methinks. No real buying.......just "speculators" covering short positions and taking money off the table ahead of the weekend.
I think !50 is doable in a week, certainly in a month. I think 200 is a relatively fair price for oil.
You can't keep cheapening the dollar while increasing the demand for a diminishing resource and expect price stability.
Similarly, as fuel costs go parabolic, it is hard to envision any demand creation in other areas. People are too busy paying for non optional items like food and fuel, neither of which the Fed chooses to call "core" components to spend elsewhere.
But everyone knows this. I would not want to be taking a new long position into this weekend...
I think !50 is doable in a week, certainly in a month. I think 200 is a relatively fair price for oil.
You can't keep cheapening the dollar while increasing the demand for a diminishing resource and expect price stability.
Similarly, as fuel costs go parabolic, it is hard to envision any demand creation in other areas. People are too busy paying for non optional items like food and fuel, neither of which the Fed chooses to call "core" components to spend elsewhere.
But everyone knows this. I would not want to be taking a new long position into this weekend...
OK, tell you what, I'll make a "fake" 500 dollar wager with you that oil DOES NOT reach or break 150 rocks a barrel on or before July 4, 2008.
I don't know if Morgan Stanley will fire the joker over there......probably not------most likely he made that crime syndicate bewkew bucks in June with his incendiary rhetoric.
500 "fake" rocks, Vermeer. Want it?
Vermeer-
OK, tell you what, I'll make a "fake" 500 dollar wager with you that oil DOES NOT reach or break 150 rocks a barrel on or before July 4, 2008.
I don't know if Morgan Stanley will fire the joker over there......probably not------most likely he made that crime syndicate bewkew bucks in June with his incendiary rhetoric.
The Fed is simply unable to intervene on the dollar...you must factor in the likelihood of continuing deficits (increasing of course with a Democrat in the WH)...more dollars to be printed....ad nauseum. In other words, SNAFU...
The Fed is simply unable to intervene on the dollar...you must factor in the likelihood of continuing deficits (increasing of course with a Democrat in the WH)...more dollars to be printed....ad nauseum. In other words, SNAFU...
Well, MS Oil man said "specifically" by July 4, 2008.
No bet, then.
Today will also be filled with more lies and rumors than usual given the amount of short interest on the table and such a technically oversold SP 500. Manipulators will have a field day all day today. Best for the little guy to sit out today's trading......will be impossible to guage.
This would be funny today..........someone is able to start a rumor that Berkshire Hathaway started shorting oil futures at yesterday's close. That would send long positions heading for the exits.
Well, MS Oil man said "specifically" by July 4, 2008.
No bet, then.
Today will also be filled with more lies and rumors than usual given the amount of short interest on the table and such a technically oversold SP 500. Manipulators will have a field day all day today. Best for the little guy to sit out today's trading......will be impossible to guage.
This would be funny today..........someone is able to start a rumor that Berkshire Hathaway started shorting oil futures at yesterday's close. That would send long positions heading for the exits.
Well, I think to guarantee a date certain in any market is more for headlines than for fact, but I think the price will be met, sooner or later. As you know, I listen to Pickens, and it is the same number he suggested, without the date attached.
Lot of technically oversold stuff is true, however, from the charts I see, there is room to go further down, especially in the NASDAQ...so..who knows...I basically am off the table except adding to DRYS...which I will continue to do at these prices...
Well, I think to guarantee a date certain in any market is more for headlines than for fact, but I think the price will be met, sooner or later. As you know, I listen to Pickens, and it is the same number he suggested, without the date attached.
Lot of technically oversold stuff is true, however, from the charts I see, there is room to go further down, especially in the NASDAQ...so..who knows...I basically am off the table except adding to DRYS...which I will continue to do at these prices...
I tend to be as concentrated as you, on sectors. DRYS numbers remain compelling if mysterious to me. It is priced as if we were in a major depression, and we are not (yet)...and while the outlook for the US is very bleak, just the opposite is true in Asia. Naturally the US can drag everything down with it, but I think the dynamism of wealth creation going on in Asia is self sustaining for now.
I tend to be as concentrated as you, on sectors. DRYS numbers remain compelling if mysterious to me. It is priced as if we were in a major depression, and we are not (yet)...and while the outlook for the US is very bleak, just the opposite is true in Asia. Naturally the US can drag everything down with it, but I think the dynamism of wealth creation going on in Asia is self sustaining for now.
The only thing that could give us a break is a sharp break in crude oil prices. That will not happen, to me, until the Fed grows a pair and raises interest rates, and that Ben cannot do for now.
PS
The only thing that could give us a break is a sharp break in crude oil prices. That will not happen, to me, until the Fed grows a pair and raises interest rates, and that Ben cannot do for now.
I don't care for Scholar Ben, but, raising rates 1/2 basis point is not a bad thing to do right now, given all the needless bailout packages the FED gave to housing speculators a few months ago.
In fact, if that were to happen..........talk about a nice long trade!!!!! The knee-jerk peanut gallery reaction would be to jump out the window, then after that stuff capitulated in a few hours, the smart money would start buying stocks hand over fist as crude would go immediately down the toilet.
I don't care for Scholar Ben, but, raising rates 1/2 basis point is not a bad thing to do right now, given all the needless bailout packages the FED gave to housing speculators a few months ago.
In fact, if that were to happen..........talk about a nice long trade!!!!! The knee-jerk peanut gallery reaction would be to jump out the window, then after that stuff capitulated in a few hours, the smart money would start buying stocks hand over fist as crude would go immediately down the toilet.
I am puzzled about why he did NOT do it.sure, traditionally, raising rates would harm the market...but these are not traditional times as he well knows.Should he have done that, or as you suggest, surprise people by doing so, the short term effect would be to take the momentum out of the oil longs, and possibly crack the pressure. If it is seen as a serious policy move rather than a ploy. So rather than being a negative for stocks, I think the net result would be a positive.
As it is, everyone is thinking the upward climb in oil prices is inevitable, and inflationary pressures are locked in, whether or not our central banks choose to count them.
I am puzzled about why he did NOT do it.sure, traditionally, raising rates would harm the market...but these are not traditional times as he well knows.Should he have done that, or as you suggest, surprise people by doing so, the short term effect would be to take the momentum out of the oil longs, and possibly crack the pressure. If it is seen as a serious policy move rather than a ploy. So rather than being a negative for stocks, I think the net result would be a positive.
As it is, everyone is thinking the upward climb in oil prices is inevitable, and inflationary pressures are locked in, whether or not our central banks choose to count them.
This may be our only hope out of hideous inflation......to raise rates right now and let all the fools who bought McMansions and got overextended on credit to just take the ass-fcku.
To me, and to a lot of people, the number one goal of the FED is to MAINTAIN A SOUND CURRENCY.
The goals of the FED are not to bail out fools, or regulate the price of GE.
If Scholar Ben wants to see Great Depression Part Deux, he is well on his way to arranging it. "Jawboning" up the dollar didn't work.......no one bought it. Now, time to raise rates before the cost of oil destroys everything. Hey, for real, the rising oil (and this was back in January 2008) made me literally stop driving.
This may be our only hope out of hideous inflation......to raise rates right now and let all the fools who bought McMansions and got overextended on credit to just take the ass-fcku.
To me, and to a lot of people, the number one goal of the FED is to MAINTAIN A SOUND CURRENCY.
The goals of the FED are not to bail out fools, or regulate the price of GE.
If Scholar Ben wants to see Great Depression Part Deux, he is well on his way to arranging it. "Jawboning" up the dollar didn't work.......no one bought it. Now, time to raise rates before the cost of oil destroys everything. Hey, for real, the rising oil (and this was back in January 2008) made me literally stop driving.
It has changed behavior, no question about it.As it should. I live in an area that offers no mass transit to speak of. The entire country has chosen to model its development on the needs of the automobile.yet while in Europe, I never missed not having a car, and never thought about it really.
Our problems are much more long term and structural than people are willing to concede...and the rhetoric of the campaigns reflect the unreality of the electorate.
Like I said, not sure why Ben did not use a chance to possibly break the momentum. The market's performance yesterday was a show of disappointment regarding his failure to act, at least that is how I read it.
It has changed behavior, no question about it.As it should. I live in an area that offers no mass transit to speak of. The entire country has chosen to model its development on the needs of the automobile.yet while in Europe, I never missed not having a car, and never thought about it really.
Our problems are much more long term and structural than people are willing to concede...and the rhetoric of the campaigns reflect the unreality of the electorate.
Like I said, not sure why Ben did not use a chance to possibly break the momentum. The market's performance yesterday was a show of disappointment regarding his failure to act, at least that is how I read it.
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