A message to all rookies and "sharp" wanna-bes...

I am sorry to learn that you didn't understand the real purpose of this thread.

I am not misguiding anyone.  How is this thread misguiding?  I am just telling you guys that if you are good enough at picking winners, then the spread doesn't matter much.

Can you pick winners?  Only you can answer this question to yourself.

By what you wrote above, it sounds like you can't.

If you are so narrow minded to rule out the possibility that any team can beat anybody any given Sunday, then you don't need to read further in this thread because you are gonna lose money no matter what.

Also, will you bother explaining how I missed something in my analysis of the Bills-Jets game?  I picked Buffalo SU and I did the wrong analysis?  Is this a joke?

Maybe it's you who were missing something in that game, dont you think?

Anyways, this thread is not meant to go into technical details on how to pick winners or cap games.  Its purpose is to drive your attention to WHO IS GOING TO WIN THE GAME STRAIGHT UP.

You are missing a KEY FACTOR above, which is represented by betting on ML underdogs.  +400 odds are a bit different than -110, dont you think?

All I am saying is this:  many bettors are hooked by taking the points because they feel "safer"...because if the game is going to be close, they will be suffering less.  Those bettors will eventually leave a lot of money on the table because they won't benefit by betting the underdog on the ML.

Do this test to see for yourself:  log in your betting account and go to your betting history information.  Take all the dogs you bet at the spread and then check whether they won SU.  That will pretty much tell you how much the spread helped you in those games or how much money the "insurance" costed you.

You are on the right path when you talk about the "Beware of all the "sharp", "square", "books getting killed", "fishy lines", "trap games", "reverse-trap games" etc etc. Now you just need to learn probability and expected value and how it relates to gambling and you will be fine. It's more complicated than you make it seem is all I am trying to say.

 

It's misguiding because most that read it are going to take the approach that they merely need to select the winner of the game to make money.  That's not nearly as easy as you're making it out to be.

To answer your question, yes I can pick winners.  But only someone that can pick teams to cover a spread are the ones that will make money. 

Yes.  You missed something if you picked the Bills to win straight up.  You got lucky somewhere.  If you think that you're good enough to pick teams like the Bills to win out right you're telling me that you are clearly a better odds maker than the ones that set the lines in Vegas.  I doubt that.

I took the Bills +9.5 so I didn't miss anything.  I thought the game would be a low scoring contest and that the Jets running game would not be a factor.  And when you bet a team to keep a score within seven points you have to consider a garbage td late to back door the game.

I understand the thread completely.  Find teams that can win straight up.  But the numbers you are posting are extremely skewed. 

Just take this weeks games.  According to the way you look at things the teams that won and covered went 10-3.  But in order to go anywhere near that you would have had to select the following dogs to win their games out right...

Houston @ Cincinnati
Kansas City @ Washington
Oakland vs Philadelphia
Arizona @ Seattle
Buffalo @ New York

It's highly unlikely that anyone picks all 5 of these dogs to win straight up.  The public was only on the Chiefs and Cardinals out of those 5 games.  And that's just for taking the points.  All 5 games on the public was on the other side of these dogs.  So the average person is now 5-8 picking winners instead of 10-3.

I bolded above the most important statement in this whole thread.

Thanks for picking up the discussion (the several that did) for me.

The point is not that "if you pick winners you will win 80% of the time" - I dont think anyone is arguing that - the argument comes from the relevance and importance of that statement.  Does that statement actually help anyone? 

As twisted math is saying, would ANYONE have bet the Bills yesterday on the ML if it was even money?   Everyone who bet the bills yesterday did so because of the price.   And rightfully so!!

Yes, the original post is correct.  If you pick the winner of the game, you will win 80% of your wagers.  But is that really groundbreaking - something everyone should know - something that could help anyone?  Seems to me that it is just stating the obvious - and has no way of really helping anyone.

Like twistedmath says - NOBODY would EVER bet a 15 point underdog in the NFL using your theory because if the game was a pick (pick the winner) - EVERYONE would bet the favorite.

Now you are saying something different - and something that I will debate you on:

You are saying that IF YOU ARE GOING TO TAKE A DOG, YOU HAVE A HIGHER EXPECTED VALUE ON THE ML THAN THE SPREAD.

Wrong.  Period.

This is exactly what I thought you were trying to say initially, then you told me you werent, and now apparantly you are.

If you use a large enough sample size, you will find that if the vig is the same on the ML bet as the spread bet, they have virtually the exact EV.  There is not an edge with betting dogs on the ML in the NFL.

Im glad we got that straight, as that is exactly what I thought you were trying to say from the beginning.

As I say back 25 posts ago, go back some seasons, apply the VALUE to the bets, and you will see exactly what I am telling you.

Vanzack

I am not sure what you are trying to get at...however, as far as I can understand, you are still missing a HUGE POINT:

you got to have skills to pick winners.

I challenge you to quote me when I say you got to bet all ML dogs.  Where is that written?  And why are you trying to distort the simple concept of this thread?  Are you jealous because someone received a few compliments for stating the obvious?  Do you need attention yourself?

It's pretty damn clear to me that only a few moneyline dogs deserve careful attention.  That's when skills come into play.  It's not about betting ALL GAMES, but rather betting those games in which your skills and approach tend to perform better.

In conclusion, this thread is aimed at:

1) those who wrongly believe that public%, traps, reverse traps, square vs sharp and all that bullshit can actually affect the outcome of a game.

2) those who feel they can nail winners but sometimes are hesitant due to the spread...or are even put off by the spread itself.  A clear example would be the poster above who still claims I was missing something in my analysis of the Bills game simply because I bet the Bills.  Even if the Bills won the game SU, he still refuses to accept it.  And trust me, there are lots of bettors out there who are put off by large spreads and can't see further than their nose.  They see +10 and they are like "i'll take the points" because there is no chance this team can win...or see -14 and are like "mmm...i'll tease this game down to -7 because i dont wanna lay 2 TDs"...

I'll say this again:  if you are good at PICKING WINNERS, then making money shouldn't be difficult.

The question is:  are you good at it?

Please find any sentence in this thread in which I say you have to go 10-3 every weekend or where I invite others to bet on every NFL game.

I never bet more than 3-4 games myself...the stats you see in here are reported to back up a simple concept with strong mathematical evidence.

You don't have to pick Oakland to win SU vs Philly to make money.  Or better, if you do like Oakland to cover the 14, you are better off giving it a shot at the ML.  Who said you got to bet all dogs in all games?

Just do your capping and whatever else you do that gives you any form of hedge...and then don't worry about the spread.

Is it easy to pick winners?  NO, IT'S NOT.  But who said it was in the first place?

Van what he is saying is that if you can pick winners you can pick winners Great post!

[pinnochio emoticon]

P.S. Read the avatar
<-----------------------/

I think I had to retire that avatar.  Too much controversy around it.  I bestow the honor to you.

I couldnt make a single post without someone trying to pick a fight over my avatar.  After a year or so, it just got tiresome.

I think what was -ing about this post is that he posted a W-L record to represent how many games the spread affected, which wins and losses have nothing to do with.

Your question is incomplete.  It really depends on your skills and winning percentage.

If you can pick winners consistently then you'd be better off betting favorites ATS and underdogs on the ML.

There are spots and trends that greatly increase the odds of a dog winning straight up.  Does this mean you have to bet on all dogs?  NOPE.

Betting all dogs on the ML vs betting all dogs ATS would probably yield the same results in long term.  That's when skills come into play.  I am not looking for anything that mathematically makes me money betting on every game.  I am simply trying to prove that if you got skills, then you maximize the your expected results on the basis of the evidence provided in this thread.

Then by the same token, IF you are great at predicting when a favorite is going to win by more than the spread, you should sell points to maximize your payback on betting favorites.

You are saying nothing of value.  Basically what you are saying is that if you are good enough to pick the final score, bet the wager that is going to pay you the absolute most.  Big deal. 

If I know that SD is going to win by 14 tongiht, I should lay 13.5.  If I know Denver will win by 3, I should lay 2.5.

There is no inherent value in betting dogs on the ML vs the spread.  If you KNOW the dog will win outright, then of course you are bettter off betting the on the ML.

I give.  You have tired me out in to submission. 

I said it a few times in this thread...I am stating the obvious.  How can I be more clear than that?

I am sorry you wasted precious time of your life trying to figure out whether I was onto some great discovery only to realize that I have been stating the obvious since the beginning.

No problems, I dont feel like my time was wasted.

On the other hand, I am absolutely dumbfounded and amazed that the first 50 posters in this thread found this revolutionary and worthy of post of the year.

You are saying that if you know what the final score will be, maximize your return by buying or selling points.

Good luck.  I will be watching this system closely.

Yeah you really seem to hate the attention

Just kidding I'll wear it proudly.  A year from now people will be debating whether or not it's really me in the pic

#35

Thanks for stepping in and providing this thread with your insight.

I got your point and it makes sense to some extent.  However, when you say that the point spread eventually becomes the X factor that separates winners from losers, I can't agree with you.

The stats that I posted and that I constantly upgrade clearly point to how "easy" it is to make cash when you can pick winners.

Picking winners means being able to nail Buffalo or Oakland or Denver or Kansas City or Houston.  It takes plenty of skills to consistently nail winners.  If you can do that, then the point spread doesn't affect your bottom line.

Here is something I would like to add and perhaps this thread will make more sense:

lots of bettors make the mistake to first look at the point spread and THEN cap the game.  I never do that.  I never want to know the spread is before Thursday.  I usually take Tuesday and Wednesday off to digest the weekend games and internalize all the action I absorbed by watching 3-4 games.  Then I take a look at the matchups and try to identify strong/weak spots and games that draw my attention.  I select a bunch of games - usually no more than 5-6 - and examine them carefully.  I cap those games, look at lots of different stuff from injury reports to momentum, interviews, trends, angles, etc.  At that point, if a clear outright winner stands out to me, I circle it and move on to the next game.  If I am still slightly undecided, I delete the game from my list.  Only once I picked all my winners do I check what the point spread is.  Sometimes I am mind-boggled by soft lines, other times I believe the line is right where it should be.  Usually, if the line is a lot different than what I think it should be, I re-evaluate the whole game and try to find out if I am missing something.  If I can't find anything I am missing, I no longer bother about the line and go ahead and bet on the game.

This has been working for me so well since last season.  Especially focusing on a few games alone without being too eager to bet the whole card.

Something else that helps me big time is my teams BLACK LIST.  There are teams I just can't figure out or that are just plain horrible with horrible quarterbacks/coaching.  I either avoid those teams - like Skins, Lions, Chiefs, Browns, Rams, Jaguars - or fade those teams - Titans -

Once we get to week 5-6, I usually have a short card each weekend because every game involved with the above teams will be a NO BET.  This scraps out lots of junk and allows me to focus on more reliable games.

I'll be pooping on this system closely

That's a very insightful post.

By the way, do you know that what I am discussing in here is not a SYSTEM?  Or is it too difficult to understand for your damaged brain?

What are you trying to prove tough guy?  Are you constructively contributing in any way to this thread?  If all you can do is post smileys eating popcorn, I invite you to take your lousy ass somewhere else and troll around other threads.

I am sick of posters like yourself who provide ZERO CONTRIBUTION and want to look like smart asses all the time.