A message to all rookies and "sharp" wanna-bes...

Hi all

I'd like to deliver a message to all newbies and inexperienced sports bettors or even those experienced gamblers who are still struggling to make any money at this.

Beware of all the "sharp", "square", "books getting killed", "fishy lines", "trap games", "reverse-trap games" hype.

If you start thinking in terms of casinos getting killed, fixed games, sharp money vs square money then you are on the way to lose your entire bankroll very quickly.

I am not saying that all the above concepts are utterly insignificant and virtually useless; I just believe it's part of capping a game, nothing more and nothing less.  Same as crunching numbers or analyzing teams momentum or considering how team A matches up with team B.

A few years ago I ran across various threads about sharp plays etc and got hooked by the cool concept and logic behind such plays.

Some years I made a shitload amount of money, especially in college BB.  However, 4 NFL seasons ago I got killed as favorites and public teams won and covered week in week out for many consecutive weeks.  The worst part of that is that I was so much engrossed into this whole Sharp vs Square argument that I totally ignored any logic behind my plays...I felt good about losing money along with the casinos and books.  I always thought I was playing with the house and that the house always wins down the road...which is true, but not necessarily true for each single sport!  A book/casino may get a beating in the NFL and kill it in NBA or college FB or European soccer or Irish darts or British dog races or Chinese Ping-pong...a book covers EVERY SPORT.  So books may get killed in one sport and make a killing in another sport.  The book always wins, whereas the sports bettor can't cover all sports disciplines and is forced into specializing into 2-3 sports max.  Accuracy is key if you want to make money with sports wagering.

Here are some stats that may help you figure out what I am trying to convey:

In week 1, teams who won the game and covered went 12-4,

In week 2, they went 15-1.

In week 3, again 15-1.

In week 4, 12-2.

Week 5 currently shows 10-3 with MNF pending.

The 2009-2010 season total is 64-11 or 85.3%,

So why should we even bother looking at the line to begin with?  Just pick the game winner and over 80% of the times it'll cover the spread.  Obviously, underdogs winners always cover the spread.

Last night I had 1 unit on the Titans.  I was 2-0 with the afternoon games and felt like the line was so fishy, looked like a trap to me...I broke some of my rules and Tennessee should have never been a play, but I wanted to be cute and pick Indy's first loss of the season and Tenn's first win of the season at the same time.

Thank god that I bailed out of my bet laying another unit on Indy +0 for the 2nd half.  I could have lost two units and be stuck in a nasty middle, but the Titans are such a horrible football team that made it impossible.  Good for me.

Now, for all those who bet the Titans last night, please answer this question out of your heart:

After capping the game and looking at the matchup, did you really believe Tennessee was going to win the game?  Or were you just sucked into the "sharp play" hype and wanted to get cute like I did?

If you believed - for whatever reason - the Titans were going to pull off a shocker, you are ok and didn't waste any money.  Just take the loss and move on.

On the other hand, if you believed the Titans had no shot at winning the game and only bet against Indy to fade the public or because over 70% of the people were on them or because the books had been getting killed, then you should seriously review the way you pick your bets.

Agree.

+1

Excellent job.  I'm a newbie at this, and I am bookmarking this post.

I agree 100%. People psych themselves out, and use stupid things like that as a substitute of handicapping. I can almost guarantee people who base their bets off of that shit have been consistent losers in this business. I was on the Colts, but I can see why some people may have taken the Titans. Its a divisional game, with a desperate titans team at home. If Tennessee could keep the game close, and establish a run game they could have kept Peyton off of the field. If the Colts jump out to a lead they are almost impossible to beat. They have an amazing pass rush, and you are not going to beat Peyton in a shootout. In the end that is why I thought the colts would win, and thats why I took them. If Tennessee was able to get a TD or two instead of fieldgoals in the first half, it may have been a completely different game.

Great post