Vanzack bowl games picks thread.....

Quote Originally Posted by Swoop:

Nice hit on NC... great job getting on those early lines.  

Any thought on the line-movement in BC/USC game?  Still like BC +7?  How about a lean on the total?  

Thanks and BOL the rest of the way  

Thanks - but to be totally honest I won about 2.7 units on UNC because of that 2 point finish - I had most of it at +3, but enough on the ML to eat in to my profits.

In retrospect - a mistake to have that much money on a game like that - even though it kind of played out like I thought it would - I consider it a mistake if I am in a close game like that.

I will take it - a win is a win - but nothing to learn from or be proud of in that one.

Thanks, same to you.

And the other funny thing is that this game ended up almost exactly like last years UNC bowl game against WV.

WV won by a point, but was a 1.5 point fav by kickoff - and it all depended upon when you bet it and what line you got if you won or lost.

2 years in a row for same team in the same bowl where a 2 point spread mattered.

van...nice play to get the Heels at 3.   I was lucky enough to have one of my locals move the line this morning to 3, so I took a nickel on the heels and tried for a middle, as my other guy usually has the current lines right on the posted current number.  In this case pitt-1 ....It worked out great, and I have had a fair amount of success over the years trying these type of bets.  Bowl season seems to present the best opportunities.

Do you have any insight  on the math with these type of plays? 

Also, Kentucky is my fav. play of the bowls...I got 7 about a week ago...

Luckily, I got KY at +7.5 for almost all of my wager....

Middles are always going to be good when you have it on a 3.  Yesterdays game was obviously a home run though, landing right on the 2 you needed.

Lets see if we get a line move here towards the fav...

The Sunday night fav bailout might move it....

Updated results and games to come....  That KY loss is still eating at me - there were one or two plays that swung that game.

Tomorrow will be a BIG day for me - I will be going to the Citrus Bowl to root on the Canes in person, and heckle the Badgers whenever possible.

1.  Fresno -2.5 (.5 units) 
2.  UCF +2.5 (.5 units)
3.  BYU +2.5 (1.5 units)
4.  Utah +3 (2 units)
5.  SMU +15.5 (.5 units)
6.  Marshall +2.5 (1 unit)
7.  UNC +3 (4 units)
8.  BC +9 (1 unit)
9.  Kentucky +7.5 (3 units)
10.  Georgia -7 (1 unit)

11.  Temple +4 (2 units)
12.  Miami -3 (5 units)
13.  BG -1.5 (.5 units)
14.  AZ -1.5 (1 unit)
15.  Mizzou -6.5 (1.5 units)
16.  Air Force +4 (1 unit)
17.  Oklahoma -8 (1 unit)
18.  IAST +2.5 (2 units)
19.  TN +4.5 (3 units)
20.  AUB -7.5 (3 units)
21.  WVU -2.5 (.5 unit)
22.  LSU +2.5 (5 units)
23.  Oregon -3.5 (1 unit)
24.  FL -10.5 (1 unit)
25.  N Ill +6.5 (.5 unit)
26.  S Carolina -4.5 (2 units)
27.  Mississippi -3 (4 units)
28.  E Carolina +7.5 (.5 units)
29.  Tex Tech -8 (3.5 units)
30.  TCU -7.5 (2 units)
31.  G Tech -4 (3 units)
32.  C Mich -2.5 (.5 unit)
33.  Alabama -4 (2.5 units)

Hey Vanzack, gl tommorrow on your big wager w/ da Canes!

Could you share your thoughts on ARZ/NEB? I like ARZ too, but I see the line is getting all screwy now...my book has ARZ +1.5 now.

Thanks a bunch ahead of time

Yeah, but the difference between Neb -1.5 and AZ -1.5 is really not that much in terms of money or betting.  I think it has more to do with the Pac10 laying eggs so far, than these two specific teams.

My main thought is I dont know how Neb recovers from the Big 12 championship game.  Really.  Nebraska is an average team that had a shot at greatness, and blew it.

I see a defensive game, but as usual Nebraska wont be able to move the ball at all.  My math model has AZ at -4.5.

Its not a big play for me, but I still do like AZ to win.

Big move on Miami....

-3.5 everywhere now....

Quote Originally Posted by David_Payne:

Happy holidays, Van ... keep it up ... DP

Thanks DP - right back at you....

I have a feeling tomorrow night will go a long way in deciding whether it will be a happy new year or not.

GL on canes van like the play as well partner..

Lean the temple owls as well.. super bowl tomorrow for them