Vanzack bowl games picks thread.....

I will pick all bowl games and assign them between 1 - 5 units.

Here goes....

1.  Wyoming is a bad team.  Really bad.  Fun fact - This is their point total in their 6 losses: 0, 10, 0, 0, 10, 10 - at least they are consistent, but that is a pattern that is scary to bet on. 

Their 6 wins are against Colorado St, FAU, SD St, Weber St, UNLV, and New MExico.  4 of those 6 wins were by 3 points or less - so in other words this team is a FG away from being a 2-10 team.

Their computer numbers are horrendous - ranked about 90 out of 120, bolstered only by a decent strength of schedule because they played (and lost) to TX, TCU, AF, Utah and BYU.

They were outyarded in 8 of their 12 games. 

Get the picture?  Wyoming aint good.

Fresno on the other hand have issues of their own, mostly on defense.  Anyone who saw the game last week against Illinois knows that this team plays very little defense - especially against mobile QB's.

Fresno also routinely gets outyarded by mediocre teams. 

But given a choice between a team that have a legitimate offense and one that just doesnt have one - I have to take Fresno here.  Fresno puts up big numbers on the ground, and I just dont see how Wyoming stops the run.  Mathews is back off of his injury, and I think they will showcase him.

Im taking FRESNO -10.5 FOR .5 (one half) unit.  This is a shit game, and Im betting it very small.  Better things to come.

 

Always a great thread.  Good luck this bowl season, van.  No opinions to offer, but I'll chime in as the bowls go by (lucky for you). 

Here are my thoughts on this awesome bowl game. Wyoming is thrilled to be here and While they havent scored alot the teams they played were: TCU-10pts, @byu-0, @AF-0, Col-0 early in the year. No fresno Im not sure really cares about being here. They gave up 52 points to illinois!!! Wyoming can expose weak defenses which fresno has. Pokes have put 30 on sdsu, 17 csu, 37 new mex, 30 fau. I just think Wyoming will come to play and there offense may be able to put 20 up and i think fresno maybe 27. I like wyoming to cover but thats just me. Good luck either way!

Vanzack's annual bowl thread

On fresno also. Some more Wyoming stats...

• Wyoming has gone 0-5 against bowl eligible teams and have been outscored 170-30.
• They have 6 victories. One is over D2 Weber State. The other 5 teams have a combined record of 18-42. Going even furthur then this, 3 of their opponents victories have come against D2 teams. Also, 7 of the 18 opponent victories have come between 2 teams Wyoming beat playing eachother.
• Including Weber State, Wyoming's avg. winning margin is less then 7. They won by a combined 40 points, and 27 of those 40 came in a victory over 1-11 New Mexico
• In their 6 losses, their avg loss is a little over 27 points per game.

The only thing worse than watching Wyoming's offense is watching those brown and orange uni's..

I will be back with the rest when I get a few minutes later tonight or tomrorrow....

BOL Brother   May you Win every Wager and enjoy Every Day

Not sure if the Bulldogs don't leave the backdoor open  for the Cowboys  Double Digit Dog+ is slightly Apealing...

The Over is a worth a small Play IMNHO... how Many Points do you see being scored ?? 

GOOD JOB

are you actually betting every SINGLE bowl game vanzack???  I feel like that goes against everything you've ever preached!

I will pick all bowl games and assign them between 1 - 5 units.

Im taking FRESNO -10.5 FOR .5 (one half) unit. 

.5 < 1

 

And I thought you were a math guy??  Jus playing bro! Good luck this bowl season Van!

 

 

GL Van

gl van

All that infor for a 1/2 unit?

Well, knowing you, 1/2 unit may be a geezle!

Yes, and I am afraid I have blown my wad.  My writeups will be all downhill from here. 

To answer some questions above....

I dont bet every game.  I just post plays as if I do because it gets too difficult to track everything I do with buying, selling, in game betting, and line shopping - I try to make it simple by assigning a unit value.  If someone wants to be them all, fine - I have been asked many times to give my opinion on every game so that is what I do....

Im feeling frisky so some more games are coming soon...

Rutgers / UCF - this game should be dominated by defense - with one big play potentially deciding the outcome.  Both teams have positive turnover ratios - but turnovers are very hard to predict  - but in this game one turnover could decide the winner.

UCF playing close to home and excited to be an a bowl - Rutgers motivation questionable and might just see this as a snowbird vaca.

My stats model has Rutgers as a 3.5 point fav on neutral turf - but I am discounting for what I feel as a motivational disadvantage down to a PK.

I would take the points here just on principle as I dont see much of an edge either way - so UCF +2.5 for .5 (one half) unit.

This is the best thing I've seen all day. 

For what it's worth, Weber Stats is a playoff-caliber, 1-AA team.  They would probably have finished 6th in WAC.  So, its a real win, it's just not a real impressive win. 

FSU doesn't always look like the most motivated team in the country, but was surprised and impressed with its level of interest in a meaningless game, half-way across the country, on a cold day.  Illini offense had been pretty potent of late.   Bulldogs will give up more than they should, but it shouldn't matter.  38-20, or something like that.

Hit a lot of the same points in my write up. Am also going to be on UCF. One thing that stood out at me a lot was the first half. Although I do like UCF, it's hard to ignore these numbers for Rutgers in the first half.

Scoring by first half:
Rutgers outscored opponents 202-126
UCF OPPONENTS outscored UCF 120-133

Central Fla. may indeed be more motivated....according to their website, they have sold out their first two ticket allotments and are on the third.

vanzack-BOL this Bowl Season!                

Alright - I dont think Im going to have the energy or the time to write up all of these games, so Im going to list them.  Will be glad to discuss them - or even write them up if I do get some motivation - but wanted to make sure they were up in time....

All between .5 and 5 units - and all current lines:

1.  Fresno -2.5 (.5 units)
2.  UCF +2.5 (.5 units)
3.  BYU +2.5 (1.5 units)
4.  Utah +3 (2 units)
5.  SMU +15.5 (.5 units)
6.  Marshall +2.5 (1 unit)
7.  UNC +3 (4 units)
8.  BC +9 (1 unit)
9.  Kentucky +7.5 (3 units)
10.  Georgia -7 (1 unit)
11.  Miami -3 (5 units)

In order of confidence SO FAR:
1.  Miami -3 (5 units)
2.  UNC +3 (4 units)
3.  Kentucky +7.5 (3 units)
4.  All the rest are 1.5 units and below....

That takes it through the 30th, will be back with the rest - lots of big bets coming up through new years and the championship game....

Van,

Couldn't agree more with the UNC play, especially in light of the following trend:

Last 23 years FAVS off 2 or more S/U losses in a row are 7-21 ATS.

Considering Pitt's prospects two weeks ago, this game is a far-cry from what they were expecting.  UNC has the situational advantage, and on top of that, they match up very well with Pitt's run-first style of offense.


I would like to ask, though: How the hell are you so confident in Miami? Would love to pick your brain on that one.  And I'm not buying the Big 10 sucks argument here, either, because the ACC is equally shitty.  Personally, I love the Badgers in this spot, playing in the same bowl that they shit all over themselves in last year.  Harris particularly would scare me if I was a U backer.