Vanzack bowl games picks thread.....

I wrote this a while back in response to the same question....  BTW - what I post is not EXACTLY how I bet - I keep it simple - I post current lines at the time I post, and dont break out percentage of ML vs spread etc - I just keep it simple.

I look at "buying points" in football a little differently than most.  When I decide I want to bet on a side in a game, I look at all possible wagers and lines with that side and evaluate which is the best bet for the prices available.  Sportsbettors often only consider a line and not the price - they want to win that bet and disregard the price they have to pay for it - to their longterm detriment.  Every bet has a line and a price, and each is just as important as the other.  For instance...

If I like Houston over GB, there will be a lot of standard options:

1.  Houston -3 -110 (Book A)
2.  Houston -3.5 +108 (Book B)
3.  Houston -2.5 -125 (Book C)
4.  Houston ML -138 (Book D)

The total O/U on this game is 39.

In those 4 examples, you arent officially "buying points", but in reality you are doing the same thing - increasing or decreasing the price as a line moves up or down. The key is being able to evaluate which of those 4 options is the best VALUE.  The simple answer is option 4.

The more complicated answer is how to get there.  Generally, I apply a 22 cent fair price to buy or sell off of the 3 in the NFL, and every other half point is generally worth about 7.5 cents.  But I vary off of these numbers depending on the total O/U of the game.  If the total is average (say 39), then I would use the numbers above.  If the total is 55, then the fair value becomes lower for those half points, and if the total is 32 it becomes higher.  My thinking is that a half point is worth more to me in a game that is expected to only have 32 points than a game that is expected to have 55 points.

So in the example above, I can recalculate all of the lines to -3, and assign a price so that I can compare apples to apples and see the best value:

1.  Houston -3 -110 (Book A)
2.  Houston -3 -114 (originally -3.5 +108, +22 cents for going to -3)
3.  Houtson -3 -103 (originally -2.5 -125, -22 cents for going to -3)
4.  Houston -3 +114 (orignally EV -138, -7.5 for 1st point, 34.5 for going to -3)

So now it is clear to see that with these options, Option 4 is the best price, Option 3 is next, then option 1 and 2.

I always bet the line / price combination that has the best value.  A lot of sportsbetters dont care about longterm, they want to win a bet TODAY and so they overpay to buy points.  But longterm, this is a losing proposition.  Selling points is often much better than buying points for longterm expected value, but it reduces your chances of winning that bet today, so most sportsbettors wouldnt consider it.  This is a major difference between "recreational" and "professional or profit minded" sports gamblers.

Generally, I would never buy points and pay 10 cents to get a half of a point.  This is because I value half points at about 7.5 cents.

I never bet basketball, so cant really comment on the value of buying there - but I am sure it is the same drill - you have to pay a premium to do it so it is probably not a good idea.

I know this is a little longwinded, and didnt answer your questions one by one - but I hope you can use this - I tried to explain it in as simple of terms as possible and keep it as short as possible - its just that I look at this concept differently than most so if I were to answer "do you buy points the traditional way" the simple answer would be no - but I do often buy or sell non-traditionally because the price determines how I bet.

I am officially off of Boise +7, sold it today at +7.5.  I think I had this one wrong, and would now lean towards TCU at -7.5.

So here is the updated list including TCU....

1.  Fresno -2.5 (.5 units) 
2.  UCF +2.5 (.5 units)
3.  BYU +2.5 (1.5 units)
4.  Utah +3 (2 units)
5.  SMU +15.5 (.5 units)

6.  Marshall +2.5 (1 unit)
7.  UNC +3 (4 units)
8.  BC +9 (1 unit)

9.  Kentucky +7.5 (3 units)
10.  Georgia -7 (1 unit)
11.  Miami -3 (5 units)
12.  BG -1.5 (.5 units)
13.  Temple +4 (2 units)
14.  AZ -1.5 (1 unit)
15.  Mizzou -6.5 (1.5 units)
16.  Air Force +4 (1 unit)
17.  Oklahoma -8 (1 unit)
18.  IAST +2.5 (2 units)
19.  TN +4.5 (3 units)
20.  AUB -7.5 (3 units)
21.  WVU -2.5 (.5 unit)
22.  LSU +2.5 (5 units)
23.  Oregon -3.5 (1 unit)
24.  FL -10.5 (1 unit)
25.  N Ill +6.5 (.5 unit)
26.  S Carolina -4.5 (2 units)
27.  Mississippi -3 (4 units)
28.  E Carolina +7.5 (.5 units)
29.  Tex Tech -8 (3.5 units)
30.  TCU -7.5 (.5 unit)
31.  G Tech -4 (3 units)
32.  C Mich -2.5 (.5 unit)
33.  Alabama -4 (2.5 units)

Pretty much if you can buy off the 7 for 10 cents it is going to be a no brainer 95% of the time.

Quote Originally Posted by jfio626:

That buying points article might be the best thing I've read on this site in 4 years.  Well done, van, very informative stuff.

Thank you.

Quote Originally Posted by jfio626:

That buying points article might be the best thing I've read on this site in 4 years.  Well done, van, very informative stuff.

You bet, Great stuff. I printed this one out.

Van,

I have a question. You're on UNC +3 for 4 units. What would grade the play at with the line at +1 ?

Still 4 units...

You a class act Van even if you do have a thing about elevators.

I totally agree with you most times even when I don't want too. I can't tell you how many times in 30 years of doing this shit I have bought a point or two because I thought I had an angle or the number nailed only to discover in review, when the hangover wore off ,I had cost myself money.

BOL with your pics I think you'll do just fine. Happy Holidays