Posted:
#101
@HooAlum
and like that, a game goes from a likely win to a push. Stupid Auburn
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Public Indicator Calculations 2024
Posted:
#103
@HooAlum
Wow so much for a good day. The afternoon has been a killing zone centered in Illinois over Michigan. Need a good finish and Kentucky is where to go.
Arkansas-LSU (No Bet) - low ticket favorite and sharp signal balances away favorite with high handle and bye week return.
CHANGE: Iowa State (2 units) - sharp signal and low handle favorite
West Virginia-Kansas St (No Bet) - away favorite with high handle balanced with sharp signal
Texas (2 units) - line movement and sharp signal
Kentucky (8 units) - line movement, low ticket and handle favorite and reverse movement
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Posted:
#104
@HooAlum
Well, looking like a losing week as all 3 games tonight are down.
Last gasp late night play is Utah with low ticket favorite and handle that is lopsided outweighing line movement and bye week return but that will not be enough to bring things to even assuming the 3 night games lose. That will leave us barely up for the season.
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Posted:
#105
@HooAlum
Well, that was weird and kind of awful as a week. As mentioned went out to tremendous undefeated start only to lose EVERY night game. As arsult the W-L was even and the money (the more important metric) was a loss. Lot of the indicators have taken a dip.
WEEKLY RECORD: 7-7
WEEKLY REVENUE: 31.5 on 41.5 units wagered
SEASON RECORD: 68-50
SEASON REVENUE: 403.7 units on 397.5 wagered (1.56% profit)
INDICATOR PERFORMANCE
Reverse Movement: 64.71%
Sharp Signals: 61.72%
SKS: 60%
Over/Under Squeeze: 56.52%
Low Bet Ticket Favorite: 56%
Steam: 53.85%
Line Movement: 51.72%
Bye Week Return: 47.22%
Lopsided Wagering 47.06%
Low Handle Favorite: 44.44%
**********************************
Early Week 9 analysis
UNLV (3 units) - lopsided wagering, high lopsided handle road favorite outweighs sharp signal
Notre Dame (3 units) - low ticket and handle favorite
Ole Miss (2 units) - low handle favorite and bye week return
Ohio State (2 units) - low handle favorite and bye week return
Alabama (3 units) - low ticket and handle favorite
Oregon (3 units) low ticket and handle favorite
Florida St-Miami (No bet) - No indicators
Michigan (1 unit) - sharp signal
Texas A&M (7 units) - low ticket favorite, lopsided wagering, sharp signals and SKS
Wisconsin (4 units) - lopsided wagering on road favorite with high handle
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Posted:
#108
@HooAlum
Going to get tonight in now and will send another update for Saturday in the next half hour
No bet occurred on BC-Louisville as it did make the handle level (balance between sharp and low handle)
UNLV (4 units) - sharp signal, high handle, lopsided wagering outweighs bye week return
Rutgers-Southern Cal (Not Bet) - no indicators shown
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Posted:
#109
@HooAlum
Well, this is the go big or go home week and will likely determine the season's profits with the high number of high unit games as well as the absolute number of games. I knew UCF-BYU was a big one but was waiting on the handle which is now there
Notre Dame (4 units) - low ticket and handle favorite and sharp signal
NEW GAME: Washington (5 units) - line movement, lopsided wagering, heavy sharp signal, reverse movement and bye week retain out west coast early start
Ole Miss (1 unit) - low ticket and handle favorite and bye week return outweighs steam, over/under squeeze and sharp signal
Ohio State (2 units) - low ticket favorite, sharp signal, and bye week return out weighs over/under squeeze
NEW GAME: Mississippi St (2 units) - lopsided wagering
NEW GAME:UCF (17 units!!) - line and reverse movement, steam, sharp signal, low ticket and handle favroite, lopsided wagering, SKS
Alabama (11.5 units!!!!) - line movement, steam, low ticket and handle favorite and sharp signal
Oregon (4 units) low ticket and handle favorite and sharp signal
CHANGE: Florida St (3 units) - lopsided wagering
Michigan (3 units) - low ticket and handle favorite, sharp signal outweighs line movement
Texas A&M (6 units) - low ticketing handle favorite, lopsided wagering, sharp signals and SKS outweighs line movement
Wisconsin (4 units) - lopsided wagering on road favorite with high handle
NEW GAME: Duke (6 units) - lopsided wagering, high handle on road favorite, reverse movement and sharp signal
NEW GAME: Kansas (5 units) - lopsided wagering and sharp signal
NEW GAME: Cincinnati (3 units) - lopsided wagering and sharp signal outweighs line movement.
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Posted:
#111
@HooAlum
Here is Saturday. the big plays are still big plays. This is decision weekend. Lot of choices.
Notre Dame (6 units) - low ticket and handle favorite and sharp signal
Washington (4 units) - line movement, lopsided wagering, sharp signal, reverse movement and bye week outweigh west coast early start
CHANGE: Oklahoma (3 units) - steam, over/under squeeze and sharp signal outweighs low handle favorite and bye week return
Ohio State (1 unit) - sharp signal, and bye week return out weighs over/under squeeze
Mississippi St (1 units) - lopsided wagering outweighs sharp signal
UCF (20 units!!) - largest play of the year, line and reverse movement, steam, strong sharp signal, low ticket and handle favorite, lopsided wagering, SKS
Alabama (10.5 units) - line movement, steam, low ticket favorite and strong sharp signal
Oregon (6 units) reverse movement, low ticket and handle favorite and sharp signal
NEW GAME: Texas (2 units) - low ticket favorite, sharp signal outweighs line movement
Florida St (1 unit) - sharp signal outweighs low handle favorite
Michigan (2 units) - low ticket and handle favorite outweighs line movement
Texas A&M (6 units) - low ticketing handle favorite, lopsided wagering, sharp signals and SKS outweighs line movement
Wisconsin (3 units) - lopsided wagering on road favorite with high handle outweighs sharp signal
NEW GAME: Kentucky (2 units) - low ticket and handle favorite outweighs line movement
Duke (5 units) - high handle on road favorite, reverse movement and sharp signal
Kansas (4 units) - lopsided wagering and sharp signal
CHANGE: Cincinnati-Colorado (No Bet) - lopsided wagering balanced with line movement.
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Posted:
#112
@HooAlum
Not a lot of change in the afternoon update.
UCF (20 units) - largest play of the year, line and reverse movement, steam, strong sharp signal, low ticket and handle favorite, lopsided wagering, SKS
Alabama (12.5 units) - line movement, steam, low ticket and handle favorite and strong sharp signal
Oregon (6 units) reverse movement, low ticket and handle favorite and sharp signal
Texas (1 unit) - low ticket favorite, sharp signal outweighs line movement
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Posted:
#114
I didnt go nearly that big on UCF but I'm already feeling like I got reverse faked somehow. I didnt understand why BYU opened as only a short fav and then UCF became favored and I thought they were trying to fake out people to bet BYU but it already looks like UCF bettors are the ones that got faked
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Posted:
#115
Quote Originally Posted by Yanasaur:
I didnt go nearly that big on UCF but I'm already feeling like I got reverse faked somehow. I didnt understand why BYU opened as only a short fav and then UCF became favored and I thought they were trying to fake out people to bet BYU but it already looks like UCF bettors are the ones that got faked
I didnt go nearly that big on UCF but I'm already feeling like I got reverse faked somehow. I didnt understand why BYU opened as only a short fav and then UCF became favored and I thought they were trying to fake out people to bet BYU but it already looks like UCF bettors are the ones that got faked
Game is still in play....I wouldn't call it till the clock hit 00:00 at the end of 4th qt.
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Posted:
#116
UCF was a killer but Bama + Oregon = that loss so still surviving and the evening will determine the outcome of the week as a whole. (Response to the above question, these are spread plays)
Florida St-Miami (No Bet) - sharp signal balances line movement
Michigan (2 units) - low ticket and handle favorite outweighs line movement
Texas A&M (5 units) - low ticketing handle favorite, lopsided wagering, sharp signals and SKS outweighs line movement
Wisconsin-Penn State (No bet) -road favorite with high handle balances bye week return
Kentucky (2 units) - low ticket and handle favorite outweighs line movement
Duke (5 units) - high handle on road favorite, reverse movement and sharp signal
Kansas (2 units) - sharp signal
CHANGE: Cincinnati (1 unit) - lopsided wagering
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Posted:
#117
@HooAlum
Well, despite losing the biggest play of the season, it was a winnign week thanks to winning the third biggest play of the season and several very strong plays, particularly late. Still not where the indicators need to be at this stage but at least they are bringing in a modest profit.
WEEKLY RECORD: 9-8
WEEKLY REVENUE: 84.6 units on 77.5 units
SEASON RECORD: 77-58
SEASON REVENUE: 488.3 unit on 475 wagered (2.80% profit)
********
Indicator Performance
Sharp Signal: 62.25%
Reverse Movement 61.9%
Over/Under Squeeze: 60%
Low Ticket favorite: 56.9%
Steam: 56.25
SKS: 55.56%
Early Start for Western Team: 50%
Line Movement: 50%
Low Handle Favorite: 46.03%
Bye Week Return: 44.19%
High Handle Road Favorite: 43.59%
Lopsided Wagering 43.21%
***********
Early Preview Week 10
Miami (5 units) - low ticket and handle favorite, lopsided wagering
Penn St-Ohio St (No Bet) - conflicting indicators lopsided wagering and high handle road favorite balanced by SKS
Georgia (2 units) - sharp signal
Michigan (2 units) - lopsided wagering and over/under squeeze
Louisville (1 unit) - lopsided wagering outweighs sharp signal
SMU (8 units) - low ticket and handle favorite, lopsided wagering and SKS
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Posted:
#118
@HooAlum
Friday Night Update as this promises to be a lower volume but possibly higher wagering weekend.
Boise St (1 unit) - Line movement (I know the game has started but line not overtaken yet on this small play)
Syracuse (4 units) - lopsided wagering on road favorite with high handle outweighs sharp
Miami (5 units) - low ticket and handle favorite with lopsided wagering
Minnesota (9 units) - classic SKS, low ticket and handle favorite strong sharp signal
Penn State (1 unit) - line movement, high handle road favorite, reverse movement outweighs SKS
Auburn (13 units) - this one seems inflated as the tells are working together to deliver the high unit number, line movement, low ticket and handle favorite with lopsided wagering, reverse movement and strong sharp signal
Florida (4 units) - line movement and steam
Michigan (8 units) - I am very worried about this one because I honestly think Michigan stinks and 2 TDs does not seem large enough - lopsided wagering, reverse movement, over/under squeeze, high handle road favroite with lopsided wagering
Louisville-Clemson (No Bet) - no indicators
Washington (4 units) - line movement, road favroite with high handle, reverse movement,
South Carolina (5 units) - lopsided wagering with high handle road favorite
Baylor (4 units) - low ticket and handle favroite with lopsided wagering outweighs sharp signal
SMU (7 units) - low ticket and handle favroite, SKS and sharp signal
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Posted:
#120
@HooAlum
I might not be near a computer for the noon runup and just have my phone during the day so wanted to get out a notice this morning. That means I will miss Patrick Everson's tweet storm later this morning. I fully endorse it as some info that I use here is parsed from it - particularly the handle qualifiers so a few games may pop up out of nowhere near kickoff but if they do you can almost bet they came from that source which you guys can see publicly - I am watching to see if the Army-AFA handle gets mentioned in particular as it is a pretty strong Air Force play at present. I also want to point out that many of the lopsided tells often go away close to gametime and even over night a few did. That is a good thing as that indicator has been pretty poor this season. Also, watch line movement. Everyone here can see it and if it occurs the information that I give here changes as it is an accelerant on some of these indicators. Auburn Vandy, whose unit number makes me very nervous, is a prime suspect in having the unit number come down. On Michigan, the lopsided number is on a knife's edge as well as the spread. Minnesota and SMU stand on firmer ground but still shop on those lines as 3 and 7 are key numbers. With that all said, here is Saturday at present.
Syracuse (2 units) - lopsided wagering on road favorite with high handle outweighs sharp
Miami (5 units) - low ticket and handle favorite with reverse movement
Minnesota (9 units) - classic SKS, low ticket and handle favorite strong sharp signal
Penn State (1 unit) - line movement, high handle road favorite, reverse movement outweighs SKS
Auburn (13 units) - line movement, low ticket and handle favorite with lopsided wagering, reverse movement and strong sharp signal
Florida (4 units) - line movement and steam
Michigan (8 units) - lopsided wagering (this imposed to go away), reverse movement (ditto), over/under squeeze, high handle road favorite with lopsided wagering
Louisville-Clemson (No Bet) - no indicators
Washington-Southern Cal (No Bet) - line movement balanced by low handle favorite
South Carolina (1 unit) - high handle road favorite
Baylor (4 units) - low ticket and handle favorite and sharp signal
SMU (8 units) - low ticket and handle favorite, SKS and sharp signal
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Posted:
#124
@HooAlum
A few notes on games that popped. A bit of a mixed bad with
Air Force 8 units (very good)
Arkansas 1 unit (bad)
Michigan St 1 unit (bad)
Iowa St 1 unit (Bad)
Arizona St (5 units) (very good)
Houston 4 units (good)
Wisconsin 2 units (looking bad)
South Carolina 1 unit (good)
Tennessee 7 units (Unknown)
Baylor 4 units (looking bad)
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Posted:
#125
@HooAlum
Made a mathematical mistake on sharp analysis for Michigan St-Indiana. Sharp were heavy on Michigan St so that was not a 1 unit loss but a 5 unit loss. Navy-Rice also came in as evidenced by Mr. Everson and unfortunately as opposed to the other service academy game did not deliver.
Regardless if it is good news or bad news I want to report so you can take the info and apply it,on. Nonetheless, great week for sharp analysis overall.
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