Public Indicator Calculations 2024

@HooAlum

Strong week that puts us back on a better profitability pace

WEEKLY RECORD: 13-7

WEEKLY REVENUE: 104.5 units on 82 wagered

SEASON  RECORD: 91-64

SEASON REVENUE: 594.7 units on 557 wagered (6.77% profit)

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INDICATOR 2024 PERFORMANCE

SKS: 70.37%

Sharp Signal: 63.95%

Steam: 58.82%

Reverse Movement: 57.69%

Low Bet Favorite: 57.58%

Line Movement: 52.7%

Early West Coast Start: 50%

Low Handle Favorite: 46.48%

Lopsided Wagering: 45.83%

Bye Week Return: 44.19%

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Initial games for the week

California (2 units): low ticket and handle favorite outweighs lopsided wagering on the road favorite

UCLA-Iowa (No Bet): low handle favorite balanced by sharp signal

Texas (4 units): low ticket and handle favorite and bye week Return and style points outweigh over/under squeeze

West Virginia (1 unit): lopsided wagering

Ole Miss (1 unit): lopsided wagering

Michigan-Indiana (No Bet): lopsided wagering balanced by sharp signal

Colorado (1 unit): sharp signal and bye week return outweighs lopsided wagering & road favorite with high handle

South Carolina (4 units): sharp signal and SKS outweighs majority handle on favorite

Notre Dame (2 units) sharp signal, bye week return and style points outweigh over/under squeeze

Alabama (2 units): sharp signal outweighs high handle road favorite

Utah (1 unit) - lopsided wagering and high handle on road favorite

Updating tonight pre game time.  Nothing special except a modest Pac-12 revenge

Cal (1 unit) - sharp signal outweighs high handle road favorite

UCLA (1 unit) - high handle road favorite and on the edge of sharp signal on the Bruins that could bump up slightly

@HooAlum

 Nice small wins to start the weekend.  Wish it was a higher bet but always better top start with low wins than low bet losers.  No, the sharp action that was going to raise to UCLA number did not arrive so it remained at 1 unit.  Here is tomorrow's slate:

Texas (5 units): low ticket favorite, bye week Return, heavy sharp signal and style points outweigh over/under squeeze

West Virginia (5 units): lopsided wagering, reverse movement and sharp signal

NEW GAME: Georgia Tech (8 units) - line movement, lopsided wagering, reverse movement and strong sharp signal

NEW GAME: Kansas (7 units) - line movement, lopsided wagering, reverse movement, sharp signal

Ole Miss (3 units): line movement, lopsided wagering on road favorite

Michigan-Indiana (No Bet): line movement, lopsided wagering on road favorite

NEW GAME: Virginia Tech (1 unit) - lopsided wagering with road favorite, road favorite with high handle outweighs sharp signal

Colorado (1 unit): sharp signal and bye week return outweighs lopsided wagering & road favorite with high handle

South Carolina (2 units): line movement, sharp signal and SKS outweighs majority handle on favorite and high handle on road favorite

NEW GAME: TCU (2 units): lopsided wagering, low ticket and handle on the favorite outweighs reverse movement

NEW GAME: Maryland (3 units): line movement, reverse movement

Florida St-Notre Dame (No bet)bye week return and style points balanced by heavy over/under squeeze

CHANGE LSU (3 units): high handle road favorite, reverse movement

NEW GAME: Virginia (1 unit): sharp signal

NEW GAME Washington (2 units): sharp signal

Utah (4 units) - lopsided wagering and high handle on road favorite reverse movement outweighs sharp signal

@HooAlum

 Won't be able to update during the day.  Big new add  as I anticipate the handle to make it in Missouri-Oklahoma.  Watch line movement on all these games.  This week has more reverse movement than any other this season.  Remember if the betting stabilizes or it reverses those tells go away.  As always late line movement will inevitably change these numbers.

Texas (5 units): low ticket favorite, bye week Return, heavy sharp signal and style points outweigh over/under squeeze

West Virginia (5 units): lopsided wagering, reverse movement and sharp signal

Georgia Tech (8 units) - line movement, lopsided wagering, reverse movement and strong sharp signal

Kansas (7 units) - line movement, lopsided wagering, reverse movement, sharp signal

Ole Miss (3 units): line movement, lopsided wagering on road favorite

CHANGE: Michigan (2 unit): reverse movement and over/under squeeze outweighs harp signal

Virginia Tech (3 units) - lopsided wagering with road favorite, road favorite with high handle outweighs sharp signal

Colorado (1 unit): sharp signal and bye week return outweighs lopsided wagering & road favorite with high handle

South Carolina (2 units): line movement, sharp signal and SKS outweighs majority handle on favorite and high handle on road favorite

TCU (2 units): lopsided wagering, low ticket and handle on the favorite outweighs reverse movement

Maryland (3 units): line movement, reverse movement

Florida St-Notre Dame (No bet)bye week return and style points balanced by heavy over/under squeeze

LSU (3 units): high handle road favorite, reverse movement

Oklahoma (15.5 units): line movement, steam=, low ticket and handle favorite, reverse movement, SKS

Virginia (2 units): sharp signal

Washington (2 units): sharp signal

Utah (4 units) - lopsided wagering and high handle on road favorite reverse movement

Thanks Hoo!

@HooAlum

 Easily won loss one of the best week's ever.  However, one of the biggest plays failed after Oklahoma was looking good they could not do the job.  It follows a trend this season of the very biggest play of the week failing but all the others coming in well.  Still. A very strong week.

WEEKLY RECORD: 14-4

SEASON RECORD: 105-68

WEEKLY REVENUE: 87.4 units on 69.5 wagered

SEASON REVENUE: 682.1 units on 626.5 wagered (8.87% profit)

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INDICATOR PERFORMANCE

Style Points: 66.67% (2-1 - I start to apply this only after the CFP rankings come out)

Sharp Signal: 66.49%

SKS: 65.63%

Reverse Movement: 60%

Over/Under Squeeze: 58.06%

Low Bet Favorite: 57.97%

Steam: 55.56%

Line Movement: 55.56%

West Coast Early Start: 50%

Lopsided Wagering: 48%

Bye Week Return: 47.83%

Low Handle Favorite: 46.58%

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Early Weekly Game Report

UCLA (1 unit): lopsided wagering

Arizona (1 unit): sharp signal

Arkansas (1 unit): bye week return

Navy-Tulane (No Bet) - Low ticket handle balanced by sharp signal

Clemson (1 unit) - sharp signal

Colorado (1 unit): low handle favorite 

Michigan State (3 units): Lopsided wagering and sharp signal

Stanford-Louisville (No bet): No indicators

Southern Cal (1 unit): low handle favorite

Boise State (1 unit): low handle favorite

Georgia (1 unit): sharp signal

Wisconsin (2 units): lopsided wagering on road favorite  and bye week return

Kansas-BYU (No Bet): No indicators

public loading up on ILL -3... See how that line moves towards Sat..

Any inclination toward tonight’s board? 

@HooAlum

Friday Night Update.  Will give another tomorrow morning.

CHANGE: Washington (1 unit): Sharp Signal

Arizona (2 units): low ticket and handle favorite outweighs line movement

Arkansas (3 unit): line movement, sharp signal and bye week return outweighs low handle favorite

Navy-Tulane (No Bet) - No indicators

Clemson (3 units) - low ticket and handle favorite

Colorado (5.5 units): line movement and steam

Michigan State (5 units): Lopsided wagering, reverse movement and sharp signal

CHANGE: Louisville (3 unit): low ticket and handle favorite

CHANGE: Nebraska (1 unit): line movement and steam outweighs low ticket and handle favorite 

NEW GAME: Arizona State (4 units): steam, reverse movement outweighs bye week return

CHANGE: San Jose State (1 unit): heavy sharp signals outweigh low handle favorite

Georgia (3 units): low ticket and handle favorite

Wisconsin (6 units): lopsided wagering on road favorite, reverse movement, sharp signal and bye week return

Kansas-BYU (No Bet): line movement and sharp signal balanced by low ticket and handle favorite

@HooAlum

Morning Update

Arkansas (4 unit): line movement, sharp signal and bye week return

Navy (1 unit) - Low handle favorite

CHANGE: Pitt (1 unit) - high handle road favorite

Colorado (6.5 units): line movement, steam, and sharp signal

Michigan State (6 units): Lopsided wagering, reverse movement and sharp signal

NEW GAME: Penn State (2 units): line movement, sharp signal, style play outweighs over/under squeeze

Louisville (3 unit): line movement, low ticket and sharp signal outweighs high handle favorite

NEW GAME: Virginia (1 unit): steam, sharp signal and over/under squeeze outweighs low ticket and handle favorite and style play

Nebraska (3 units): line movement and steam reverse movement outweighs low ticket and handle favorite 

Arizona State (2 units): steam outweighs bye week return

San Jose State (4 units): very heavy sharp signals outweigh low handle favorite

Georgia (8 units): low ticket and handle favorite, sharp signal, SKS

Wisconsin (6 units): lopsided wagering on road favorite, reverse movement, sharp signal and bye week return

CHANGE: Kansas (6 units): line movement, sharp signal, and SKS

@HooAlum

 Another strong week easily making this the best W-L we have seen (just as a note the success in the last 3 weeks came after a regression analysis - needless to say I will stick with that formula for now).  Revenue not quite as strong as some big plays have not come home but overall  still a healthy profit.

WEEKLY RECORD: 12-4

WEEKLY REVENUE: 73.2 units on 54.5 wagered

SEASON RECORD: 117-72 (61.90%)

SEASON REVENUE: 755.3 units on 681 wagered (10.91% profit)

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Indicator Performance

SKS: 70.27%

Sharp Signal: 65.73%

Style Points: 60%

Low Bet Favorite: 58.11%

Reverse Movement: 57.89%

Over/Under Squeeze: 57.58%

Steam: 56.52%

Line Movement: 55.68%

West Coast Early Start: 50%

Lowe Handle Favorite: 49.37%

Bye Week Return: 48.98%

Lopsided Wagering: 48.04%

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Early Preview for Week 13

Georgia Tech(3 units)  - low ticket and handle favroite

Virginia (1 unit) - high handle on road favorite

Ohio State (8 units) - line movement, low ticket and handle favorite, reverse movement

Colorado (1 unit) - low ticket favorite and sharp signal outweighs high handle on road favorite

Penn State (2 units) - low ticket and handle favorite outweighs over/under squeeze

Arizona State (5 units) - SKS low ticket and handle favorite

Texas (6 units) - lopsided wagering, low ticketing handle favorite, sharp signal and style points out weighs over under squeeze

Pittsburgh-Louisville (No bet) - no indicators

Notre Dame (4 units) - lopsided wagering, low ticket and handle favorite, style points out weighs over/under squeeze

Auburn (1 unit) - lopsided wagering

Alabama (1 unit) - sharp signal outweighs high handle road favorite (especially when that high handle comes from sharps)

Duke (2 units) - lopsided wagering, high handle on road favorite

UCLA (2 units) - lopsided wagering, high handle on road favorite

@HooAlum

No Friday games for the Friday game and as it turned out no Thursday game either due to late sharps and the low ticket favorite going away.  There are some plays but this might be a quiet weekend.  One game that could pop is Rutgers-Illinois as the betting patterns are all over the red hot ATS Scarlet Knights but people have not yet jumped on as a whole to get an adequate handle.

Virginia (3 unit) - high handle on road favorite and sharp signal

NEW GAME: Ole Miss (2 units) - line movement and bye week return

BIG CHANGE Indiana (2 units) - line movement reversed to the Hoosiers with steam (injury to Buckeyes center and IU QB playing) and bye week return outweighs low ticket favorite and sharp signal

CHANGE: Kansas (2 units) - sharp signal and high handle road favorite outweighs low ticket favorite

CHANGE: Minnesota (1 unit) - over/under squeeze, bye week return and road favorite with high handle outweighs low ticket favorite and sharp signal

Arizona State (4 units) - SKS and sharp signal

NEW GAME: Cal (11 units) - line movement, low ticket and handle favorite with lopsided wagering, reverse movement and sharp signal

Texas (6 units) - lopsided wagering, low ticket and handle favorite, sharp signal and style points out weighs over under squeeze

CHANGE: Louisville (7 units) - low ticket and handle favroite, lopsided wagering, sharp signal

Notre Dame (1 unit) - low ticket and handle favorite outweighs over/under squeeze and bye week return

CHANGE: Texas A&M (1 unit) - low ticket favorite, sharp signal outweighs high handle road favorite

CHANGE: Oklahoma (4 units) - high handle road favorite, sharp signal bye week return 

Duke (3 units) - high handle on road favorite and reverse movement

UCLA (1 unit) - high handle on road favorite

@HooAlum

Any update sir or is this the final drop?

I'm now terrified of betting the line on OSU.  

Do you think Over 52 is a good bet? 

@HooAlum

Morning Update

@HooAlum

Did you mean to post Hoo?

@HooAlum

Crap morning update did not take.  Only 1-3 so far but Rutgers-Illinois came alive.  Sorry it did not take but you got similar numbers and the alert on Illinois Rutgers (obvious SKS play)

Here is midafternoon

Lackluster start to the day.  Not a lot of changes but a few games pulled back slightly . Shaem Rutegrs-Illinois did not make the handle level.  It was a big Rutgers play had it.

@HooAlum

 0-4 start and Cal hurting in teh afternoon.  We shall see if this crazy Arizona St-BYU goes our way.  Only night change os that Duke-Virginia Tech is now a push

what alert on illinois - rutgers game?  you didnt have it in any of the groups of plays

Arizona this week

@HooAlum

 The week started off really poor.  0-4 in the noon early games.  No winner appeared obvious until Kansas started putting Colorado away around the 6pm EST mark.  And then things got a lot better.  Louisville, ASU came home with big wins and Auburn and Oklahoma won outright at night along with Vandy to salvage the week.  It was a down week as you just cannot climb out of such a hole but it was by no means a killer and did not hurt the overall season stats too bad.  (oh and too close on getting UCLA which would have actually produced a winning week - and imagine if Duke had remained the pick, combined with the late Rutgers add the Saturday morning update was actually a winner for the week. ugh!)

WEEKLY RECORD: 7-8

WEEKLY REVENUE: 39.9 units on 44 wagered

SEASON RECORD: 124-80 (60.78%)

SEASON REVENUE: 795.2 units won on 725 units wagered (9.68% profit)

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Indicator performance

SKS 70%

Sharp Signal 66.67%

Over/Under Squeeze 58.33%

Reverse Movement 57.89%

Steam 56.0%

Low Bet Favorite 54.88%

Line Movement 54.17%

Style Points 50%

Bye Week Return 49.09%

Lopsided Wagering 48.04%

Low Handle Favorite 47.13%

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Early Week Outlook (lot of games are already at the handle level - this promises to be a big wagering weekend)

Memphis-Tulane (No Bet) - No indicators

Colorado (4 units) - lopsided wagering and low ticket and handle favorite

Ole Miss (3 units) - low ticket favorite and sharp signal

Georgia (4 units) -  lopsided wagering and low ticket and handle favorite

South Carolina-Clemson (No Bet) - low handle favorite blanched by sharp signal

Tennessee (3 units) - low ticket favorite and sharp signal

Ohio State (3 units) - low ticket and handle favorite

Kentucky-Louisville (No bet) - low handle favorite blanched by sharp signal

NC State-North Carolina (No Bet) - No indicators

Miami (2 units) - low ticket and handle favorite outweighs sharp signal

Arizona (1 unit) - lopsided wagering

Cal (1 unit) - lopsided wagering

Arkansas-Missouri (No Bet) - No indicators

Alabama (1 unit) - sharp signal

Notre Dame (1 unit) - sharp signal

Oklahoma-LSU (No bet) - No Indicators

Texas A&M-Texas (No Bet) - No Indicators

@cd329

 I tried posting and for some reason the post did not take late morning with an update that Rutgers came in with a pretty big play.  Needless to say wish it had never made it and probably should have pretended I never posted as it was a 6 unit LOSER.  Week would have been a winner had I not made that late addition, but you have to follow the numbers even on a loser you could technically ignore due to a mispost.  If you did not then you are getting a false read going forward and the numbers become somewhat meaningless.  I like that the numbers are providing winning results but what you are witnessing is me constantly conducting a grand experiment to see if it actually works.  So far it has but I am sure that AI at some point will come along and make my computations passe`.  In the meantime I'll enjoy seeing if I can at least partially crack a code of sorts.   

@HooAlum

Thursday Update (No play on Memphis-Tulane)

Colorado (4 units) - lopsided wagering and low ticket and handle favorite

NEW GAME: Minnesota (8 units) - line movement, steam, low ticket and handle favorite

Ole Miss (3 units) - low ticket and handle favorite and style points outweigh sharp signal

Georgia (2 units) -  lopsided wagering and low ticket and handle favorite and style points outweighs line movement and over/under squeeze

Clemson (1 unit) - low ticket and handle favorite outweighs sharp signal and SKS

Tennessee (1 units) - low handle favorite

Ohio State (3 units) - low ticket and handle favorite and style points outweighs over under squeeze

NEW GAME: Baylor (2 units) - lopsided wagering and sharp signal

CHANGE: Louisville (2 units) - line movement and low handle favorite

CHANGE: North Carolina (3 units) - low ticket and handle favorite and lopsided wagering outweighs line movement 

Miami (2 units) - low ticket and handle favorite outweighs sharp signal

Arizona (3 units) - lopsided wagering, road favorite with high handle and sharp signal

Cal (2 units) - lopsided wagering and sharp signal

Arkansas-Missouri (No Bet) - sharp signal and SKS balanced

Alabama (3 units) - low ticket and handle favorite

CHANGE: Southern Cal (3 units)- road favorite with high handle and sharp signal

Oklahoma-LSU (No bet) - No Indicators

Texas A&M (2 units) - harp signal and high handle on road favorite outweighs low handle favorite