Public Indicator Calculations 2024

Thank you @HooAlum for the call on Navy at 8 Units.  There’s no way I’d have wagered on that game, much less sided with the Midshipmen, without your analysis.

@HooAlum

 Today's games.  Hope for a recovery today.  Not a lot of big plays.  Most fun is BYU-Colorado but strong reverse movement butts heads against SKS so a wash.

CHANGE: Connecticut (1 unit) -G5 v P5

Boston College-Nebraska (No bet) - No indicators

Louisiana-Lafayette (2 units) - P5 v G5 heavy bowl underdog

Iowa State (1 unit) - Playoff Snub outweighs line movement

Miami-Ohio (3 units) - low ticket and handle favorite

CHANGE: NC Stat (1 unit) -line movement and low handle outweighs G5 v P5

CHANGE: BYU-Colorado (No bet) - sharp signal, SKS balanced by lopsided wagering and reverse movement

Louisiana Tech (2 units) - over/under squeeze and heavy bowl underdog

FYI: Louisiana Tech line movement has turned into steam along with the over/under squeeze making it a strong play

@HooAlum

Modest big bowl day but closed on a loser with La tech that gave up a lot of the gains (though a late sharp play did come in on BYU & ECU to move it from no bet to 1 unit and 1 unit to no bet so while not hugely profitable makes the overall W-L look good, nice since we lost that Rutgers game).

CHANGE: Iowa-Missouri (No bet) - sharp signal balanced by reverse movement

Alabama (3.5 units) - steam, low ticket favorite, sharp signal outweighs heavy bowl underdog and playoff snub

Louisville (2 units) - low ticket and handle favorite outweighs sharp signal

CHANGE: Illinois (1 unit) -  double digit underdog

Baylor (11 units) - low ticket and handle favorite with lopsided wagering, line movement, reverse movement

Ole Miss (4.5 units) - line movement, steam, sharp signal outweighs  lopsided wagering and heavy bowl underdog

Texas State (4 units) - low ticket and handle favorite, reverse movement outweighs heavy bowl underdog

Virginia Tech-Minnesota (No bet) - No indicators

Buffalo (1 unit) - low ticket favorite

PLAYOFFS

Penn State (5 units) - low ticket favorite and big sharp signal

CHANGE: Arizona St (1 unit) - line movement and reverse movement outweighs sharp signal

Ohio State (5 units) - low ticket and handle favorite and SKS

CHANGE: Georgia (2 units) - sharp signal

Today had all indicators go away except line movement toward Iowa so a small 1 unit play on the Hawkeyes

Hey HooAlum,

Any chance your helpful weekly update can be produced soon but with bowl info only. Very helpful input for most of us each week  Thanks!

BOWL RECORD: 

WEEKLY REVENUE: 

BOWL REVENUE: 

*****************

Indicator Performance %’s  

@HooAlum

 Liked Baylor before love em now

Sorry to see you flip on the gamecocks tomorrow. Sellers is one of the best quarterbacks in the country and he will have a field day against Illinois.

love Baylor as well

Louisville....................may be an issue. Top two offensive players opt out. Backup QB has 6 passes this year.

Washington may be the play or a good game to pass on and play def / spec team TD

Louisville Opt-Outs

• QB Tyler Shough
• WR Ja’Corey Brooks
• WR Ahmari Huggins-Bruce V
• DE Ashton Gillotte
• CB Quincy Riley
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CHECK THAT 8 PASSES........................MY BAD

@HooAlum

Bowl season may depend on Baylor.  It has been persistent as I have expected the unit number to reduce but it stubbornly has not.  We shall see tomorrow morning.  Common theme on changes is that the ACC's poor bowl performance seems to be contagious to others I the league as sharps are starting to go against them.

Alabama (3.5 units) - line movement, steam, sharp signal outweighs heavy bowl underdog and playoff snub

CHANGE: Washington-Louisville (No bet) - low ticket and handle favorite balanced by sharp signal and line movement

Illinois (2 unit) -  reverse movement

Baylor (11 units) - low ticket and handle favorite with lopsided wagering, line movement, reverse movement

Ole Miss (5.5 units) - line movement, steam, sharp signal outweighs  lopsided wagering and heavy bowl underdog

Texas State (4 units) - low ticket and handle favorite, reverse movement outweighs heavy bowl underdog and lopsided wagering

CHANGE: Minnesota (1 unit) - line movement

Buffalo (1 unit) - low ticket favorite

PLAYOFFS

Penn State (5 units) - low ticket and handle favorite and sharp signal

Arizona St (2 units) - line movement and reverse movement outweighs sharp signal

Ohio State (5 units) - low ticket and handle favorite and SKS

CHANGE: Georgia (2 units) - sharp signal

Overnight movement is making this the day of big plays and what will decide the entire bowl season after a few ho-hum dayss.  A lot of spreads are moving quickly so try to get them now.  Washington jumped the fence this morning in particular

Alabama (3.5 units) - line movement, steam, sharp signal outweighs heavy bowl underdog and playoff snub

CHANGE: Washington (8 units) - low ticket favorite, line movement , steam, and sharp signal

Illinois (4 units) -  line movement and reverse movement

Baylor (9 units) - low ticket favorite with lopsided wagering, line movement, reverse movement

PLAYOFFS

Penn State (5 units) - low ticket and handle favorite and sharp signal

Arizona St (3 units) - line movement and reverse movement 

Ohio State (5 units) - low ticket and handle favorite and SKS

Georgia (3 units) - sharp signal

@HooAlum

 Mama showing that bowl snub is a real thing, unfortunately the other indicators mean it is staring at a 3.5 unit loss.  Wanted to make a quick note that RSPNBet moved Baylor to (-3).  That is the best I have seen so people should take advantage if they are inclined on the Bears who are still a strong play

well, this day is going down very poorly needless to say. wow!  

need a major washington comeback to salvage. 

@HooAlum

Yes, bad day.  If Washington gets that 2 point conversion it at least is almost break even today and a profit overall as a push in that game was needed but no dice.  Penn State and Illinois salvaged from a complete disaster with 2 nice wins.  Feel free to fade and upon request here is a comprehensive tell update.

Arizona St (3 units) - line movement and reverse movement 

Ohio State (5 units) - low ticket and handle favorite and SKS

Georgia (3 units) - sharp signal

Performance to date

Overall Bowl Record: 15-15

Overall Season record: 155-112

Bowl Revenue: 95 units on 102.5 wagered (loss of 7.32%)

Season Revenue: 980.5 units on 918.5 wagered (profit of 6.75%)

Indicator Performance Season/Bowl

Bowl Snub: 100%

Bowl G5 v P5: 66.67%

Sharp Signal: 65.04%/Bowl (65%)

SKS: 61.22%/Bowl (0% = 0-1)

Over/Under Squeeze: 58.97%/Bowl (50%)

Reverse Movement: 57.50%/Bowl (66.67%)

Steam: 56.67%/Bowl (50%) 

Low Bet Favorite: 54.64%/Bowl (60%)

Line  Movement: 53.7%/Bowl (38.01%)

Large Bowl Underdog: 50%

Style Points: 50%/N/A

Bye Week Return: 50%/N/A

Low Handle Favorite: 48.51%/Bowl (37.5%)

Lopsided Wagering: 48.08%/Bowl (0%)

@HooAlum

 Late surges in the line have mixed things up for 2 of 3 today.  Texas now back to 13.5 and with that the pick.  Notre Dame jumps the fence and now the favorite in teh consensus (but can still get +1.5 at Fan Duel and pick'em at Caesars)

CHANGE: Texas (1 unit) - sharp signal

Ohio State (6 units) - low ticket and handle favorite and SKS, sharp signal

CHANGE: Notre Dame (7 units) - line movement, steam, low ticket and handle favorite outweighs sharp signal

@HooAlum

 Ole Miss (5.5 units) - line movement, steam, sharp signal outweighs  lopsided wagering and heavy bowl underdog

Texas State (2 units) - low ticket and handle favorite,\outweighs heavy bowl underdog

Minnesota (1 unit) - line movement

Buffalo (1 unit) - low ticket favorite

PLAYOFFS

Notre Dame (9 units) - low ticket and handle favorite, steam,, line movement, SKS outweighs sharp signal

NEW: Ohio State (3 units) - SKS

You need to understand that in college bowls, you don't know who is playing,  and more importantly,  what their effort is. 

It is foolish to think you have an edge otherwise.  

https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaaf/2024-college-football-bowl-opt-outs-transfer-portal-updates-injury-tracker

Texas State Transfer Portal

• Starting RB Ismail Mahdi (committed to Arizona)
• Starting RT Alex Harkey (committed to Oregon)
• Starting CB Josh Eaton (committed to Michigan State)
• Starting DT Terry Webb (375 snaps)
• Starting DT Tavian Coleman (355 snaps)
• DT Dominique Ratcliff (318 snaps)
• DE Ben Bell (opted out earlier in season)

Texas State Potential Opt-Out

• LG Nash Jones

Starting TE Konner Fox didn’t play in the finale. DE Steven Parker (367 snaps) missed the final three games.

It looks as if starting quarterback Jordan McCloud won't play "significant snaps".

North Texas Transfer Portal

• Starting QB Chandler Morris (committed to Virginia)
• Starting WR DT Sheffield (committed to Rutgers)
• Starting TE Oscar Hammond (committed to Oregon State)
• Starting C Tyler Mercer (committed to Kansas)
• LG Leke Asenuga (585 snaps; been injured)
• WR Nick Rempert (257 snaps)
• RT MaKyi Lee (246 snaps)
• S Jayven Anderson (181 snaps)
• CB Kerry Williams (113 snaps)
• WR Jeremiah Aaron (97 snaps)
• RB Ikaika Ragsdale (58 snaps; injured Week 2)
• RB Shane Porter (listed on bowl depth chart)

Without Morris, the Mean Green will turn to true freshman Drew Mestemaker, who came in for Morris as the backup this season.

North Texas Injuries

Jett Duncan and Leke Asenuga suffered late-season injuries on the interior offensive line, but Duncan is back on the depth chart as the starting C. UNT also lost starting OT Larry Moore midway through the season. Starting TE Oscar Hammond didn’t play the finale and entered the portal. True freshman Brandon Young is listed as the starting TE on the depth chart. Another true freshman will start at one of the wide receiver positions as well (and left tackle).

@HooAlum

Today's action

Notre Dame (9 units) - low ticket and handle favorite, steam,, line movement, SKS outweighs sharp signal

Ole Miss (2.5 units) - line movement, steam, sharp signal outweighs lopsided wagering and heavy bowl underdog and large reverse movement.  (will monitor this in particular as it came in about 20 minutes ago, it. could easily toggle and go away.  Watch if the line drop further from 17.

so we flip flopped from Georgia to ND and now it is our biggest play?

@HooAlum

 As I suspected, the line toggled back to 17.5 eliminating the reverse movement pushing the play to Ole Miss 4.5 units.  You can still greet 17 at a number of books.

@BigPell

 yep, we had steam and a fence jump 2 days ago that also led to an SKS (lower ranked team favored over higher ranked team).  I did give lead time with a post about it noon January 1.  Sorry if you did not see it before wagering.

@HooAlum

after a disastrous New Year's Eve afternoon going 1-4 and losing an 8 and 11 unit game, things started to improve that night with Penn State taking 5 units and since that time a 4-1 record with the one loss only a single unit and the wins being 5, 6, 9 and 4.5.  As a result now things have changed overall for the record and revenue

BOWL/PLAYOFF RECORD: 18-16 (Playoffs 6-1)

SEASON RECORD: 158-113

BOWL/PLAYOFF REVENUE: 132.1 units on 123 wagered (7.4% profit)

SEASON REVENUE: 1017.6 on 939 wagered (8.37% profit)

**

INDICATOR PERFORMANCE

Bowl Snub: 100% (2-0)

Bowl G5 v P5: 71.43%

Sharp Signal: 65.04%/Bowl (62.5%)

SKS: 61.22%/Bowl (66.7%)

Over/Under Squeeze: 58.97%/Bowl (50%)

Reverse Movement: 57.50%/Bowl (66.67%)

Steam: 56.67%/Bowl (45.45%) 

Low Bet Favorite: 54.64%/Bowl (66.67%)

Line  Movement: 53.7%/Bowl (43.48%)

Large Bowl Underdog: 42.86%

Style Points: 50%/N/A

Bye Week Return: 50%/N/A

Low Handle Favorite: 48.51%/Bowl (50%)

Lopsided Wagering: 48.08%/Bowl (0%=0-4)

**

REMAINING BOWL GAMES

Texas State (2 units) - low ticket and handle favorite outweighs double digit underdog

Minnesota (1 unit) - line movement

Buffalo (3 units) - line movement and low ticket underdog

@HooAlum

 Well, the low ticket and handle went away for this afternoon’s game and new line movement came in. What does all this mean?  No bet as the line movement is canceled out by the heavy bowl underdog. 

tonight’s game is still Minnesota 1 unit due to line movement. A little more movement to the hopers and it will bump up to a 2 unit play.