Public Indicator Calculations 2024

@HooAlum

 Friday Morning.  Not a lot of change. Some slight pullback but the favorites are still the calls across the board

Colorado (3 units) - low ticket and handle favorite

Minnesota (6 units) - line movement, steam, low handle favorite, and sharp signal

Ole Miss (3 units) - low ticket and handle favorite and style points outweigh line movement

Georgia (2 units) -  lopsided wagering and low ticket and handle favorite and style points outweighs line movement and over/under squeeze

@HooAlum

Friday Night Update 

Clemson (1 unit) - low ticket and handle favorite outweighs sharp signal and SKS

CHANGE: Vanderbilt-Tennessee (NO Bet) - low handle favorite balanced by sharp signal

Ohio State (3 units) - low ticket favorite, sharp signal and and style points outweighs over under squeeze

Baylor (3 units) - lopsided wagering, sharp signal and high handle on road favorite

Louisville (2 units) - line movement and sharp signal outweighs high handle on road favorite

North Carolina (3 units) - low ticket and handle favorite and lopsided wagering outweighs line movement 

Miami (3 units) - low ticket and handle favorite

Arizona (2 units) -  road favorite with high handle and sharp signal

Cal (2 units) - lopsided wagering and sharp signal

Arkansas-Missouri (No Bet) - low handle favorite and SKS balanced

Alabama (2 units) - low ticket and handle favorite outweighs line movement

Southern Cal (2 units)- road favorite with high handle and sharp signal

CHANGE: LSU (3 units) - low ticket favorite and sharp signal

Texas A&M (3 units) - sharp signal and high handle on road favorite

Saturday Morning (lot of new games but only one big play)

Saturday Morning (lot of new games but only one big play)

@HooAlum

Solid week where the big games hit.  Sort of opposite the results of the season but will take weekly wins where they can be found.

WEEKLY RECORD: 12-11

SEASON RECORD: 124-80 (60.78%)

WEEKLY REVENUE: 73.2 units won on 62 wagered

SEASON REVENUE: 868.4 units won on 787 wagered (10.34% profit)

*****************

Indicator Performance

SKS: 66.67%

Sharp Signal: 66.01%

Over/Under Squeeze: 58.97%

Steam: 58.62%

Reverse Movement: 57.89%

Low Bet Favorite: 55.21%

Line Movement: 53.70%

Style Points: 50%

Early West Coast Start: 50%

Bye Week Return 49.09%

Low Handle Favorite: 48.98%

Lopsided Wagering: 48.04%

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Early Game Report

Western Kentucky-Jacksonville State (No Bet) - No indicators

Tulane (3 units) - SKS outweighs high handle favorite

UNLV (2 units) - sharp signal

Iowa St-Arizona St (No bet) - no indicators

Ohio (No bet) - no indicators

Texas (4 units) - low ticket and handle favorite and sharp signal

Marshall-Louisiana-Lafayette (No Bet) - no indicators

Clemson-SMU (No bet) - no indicators

Penn State (1 unit) - lopsided wagering

@HooAlum

 Tonight.  Literally no changes, though I am watching to see if the handle count does fall below 50% in UNLV-Boise which would be only a 1 unit play on UNLV.  I'll Give an update for tomorrow later.

Western Kentucky-Jacksonville State (No Bet) - No indicators

Tulane (3 units) - SKS outweighs high handle favorite

UNLV (2 units) - sharp signal

@HooAlum

 While UNLV pulled back due to low handle appearing it still was a 1 unit loss so 4 units wagered and 4 units into the ether.  not a positive start but only one game is junking out as the Big XII will likely determine the weekend as most of the others are cat and dogs.

Iowa St (5 units) - reverse movement and sharp signal

Miami(OH) (1 unit) - sharp signal

Georgia (1 unit) - sharp signal

Louisiana-Lafayette (2 units) - sharp signal

Clemson (2 units) - sharp signal

Penn State (1 unit) - lopsided wagering

@HooAlum

 Well, after a run of great weeks definitely a disappointing end to the regular season (though maybe Army-Navy will turn up good).  There were some late adds that most saw but they were mainly negative.  Iowa State exploded as a 12 unit play (and then promptly exploded in the indicator's face).  You could see this as it jumped the fence so that is no surprise.  Penn State also had some late sharp movement that made that loss worse.  On the other hand Clemson got a nice play on the sharps late and Ohio-Miami went off teh board due to late sharp on the bobcats.  Here is how the season stand (lost the 10% profit level)

WEEKLY RECORD: 2-6

SEASON RECORD: 126-86 (59.43%)

WEEKLY REVENUE: 7.6 units on 25 wagered (ugh!)

SEASON REVENUE: 876 units won on 812 wagered (7.88% profit)

************

Indicator Performance

Sharp Signal: 65.04%

SKS: 61.22%

Over/Under Squeeze: 58.97%

Steam: 56.67%

Reverse Movement: 56.41%

Low Ticket Favorite: 54.64%

Line Movement: 53.7%

Style Points: 50% (50.77% 5 year weighted average)

Early West Coast Road Start: 50% (65.44% 5 year weighted average)

Bye Week Return: 49.09% (52.09% 5 year weighted average)

Low Handle Favorite: 48.51% (53.08% 5 year weighted average)

Lopsided Wagering: 47.57% (53.33% 5 year weighted average)

**********

Army-Navy early projection: Navy (1 unit) - lopsided wagering

Weekend Bowl

Western Michigan (3 units) - lopsided wagering with negative line movement

Sup Hoo .. love the posts way to stick w it and report to us ..

just wondering in all your experience tracking these do you find a certain profile of game where the indicators just seem to work better / worse?..  I'd kindof expect we'd find some value if we controlled for the magnitude and attention for a game like the BIIIG in season showdowns certainly conf champ games and also the relative uncertainty of some portions of the season week 1 / early non-cons, and probably even the late season dead spots teams missed their champ game lobsided or dual low motivation spots if its not a big rivalry game or something, and probably the entire bowl season just fraught with uncertainty too .. Just wondering if you've played around seems like the indicators would be better maybe just on yer run of the mill mid season conf game .. I get surprised when I look into things like that my hypothesis is often not only wrong but its the total opposite! lol .. anyway good luck rest of the way buddy!

@HooAlum

 Today's action

Navy (1 unit) - lopsided wagering (there used to be reverse movement on the line move from 6.5 to 6 but this morning it went back up to 6.5, if it moves back to 6 that would still be reverse movement and worth following)

CHANGE: South Alabama (3 units) - The betting patterns changed here now there is a low ticket and handle favrorite which favors USA.  The line movement also returned to normal. 

@Bridge1

 yes, I want the handle to reach a particular level before including it.  More attention, the more certain the indicators as there are more data points to draw from and helps eliminate outliers (plus the book makers care more about heavily wagered games than lesser bet ones so their tells will be more prevalent).  Bowls games have been solid performers the last few years.  it will be interesting if the new expanded CFP takes away some of the attention and wagering form the traditional bowl slate.

@HooAlum

 Well, a 2-0 weekend.  There were some changes.  \

One good - the Navy play was 4 units due to the reverse movement coming back as I hinted at and one that I completely blanked on until Gary Danielson mentioned it in game - Navy had a bye week compared to Army, so stupid to not mention that and add the unit before the game.

One bad - South Alabama had line movement drop to under a touchdown.  While that helped on the final spread it lowered the wager from 3 to 2 units. 

However, overall a good late change as opposed to championship game where Iowa State miss still leaves a mark.  Still, nice 1-0 bowl game start

Here is an early projection over the next week

West Virginia (2 units) - lopsided wagering and reverse movement outweighs line movement 

Western Kentucky (1 unit) - lopsided wagering

UNLV (3 units) - line movement, steam (jumped the fence)

Georgia Southern (1 unit) - low ticket favorite

Ohio (3 units) - low ticket and handle favorite

Tulane-Florida (NO Bet) - sharp signal balanced by heavy underdog

Coastal Carolina (1 unit) - heavy handle on away favorite

Fresno St (1 unit) - lopsided wagering

PLAYOFF

Notre Dame (3 units) - low ticket and handle favorite

Penn State (1 unit) - low ticket favorite

Texas (1 unit) - Line Movement

Tennessee-Ohio St (No bet) - No indicators

@HooAlum

 two hours out and Memohis-West Virginia is no play as the lopsided wagering and the line movement are at odds and balance each other out.  There are some hints of reverse movement so if you are really needing to make a call I would go Mountaineers.

please keep updating close to game time. thanks

@HooAlum

Sorry but no earth shattering updates in tonight.  It all stayed the same for the last few days.  1 unit on WKU and 3 units on UNLV.  Same indicators.  Sharps have been absent from these early games as it seems the CFP has taken away the daily cadence of wagering we have seen in previous years.  That changes starting Friday as the sharp are starring to flex their muscles.  I'll report later tonight.

As a note how about last night.  Spread was 5, the indicators said no bet and the final score?  you guessed it 5 points.  Not a usual number.

Love the work Hoo!  Been following all football season for my pool and it sure is nice to not need to pick anything and just follow you!  I’ve tried to look the info up myself but can’t seem to find the depth of info that you have access to.  Regardless, you put a lot of time in on this and I am grateful!

Now if you only had it for the NFL…

@HooAlum

 Here is an update for the next week including the CFP.  Unfortunately close loss to start the night but it was only 1 unit.

UNLV (3 units) - line movement, steam (jumped the fence)

Georgia Southern (1 unit) - low ticket favorite

Ohio (1 unit) -line movement

Tulane (7 units) - steam, reverse movement, heavy bowl underdog, P5 v G5 outweighs sharp signal

Coastal Carolina-UTSA (No bet) - heavy handle on away favorite balanced by line movement

Fresno St (1 unit) - lopsided wagering

South Florida-San Jose State (no bet) - no indicators

PLAYOFF

Notre Dame (1 unit) - sharp signal 

Penn State (1 unit) - low ticket favorite

Texas (5 units) - Line Movement, low ticket favorite, sharp signal

Ohio St (6 units) - low ticket and handle favorite, sharp signal

@HooAlum

 Will update if things change but the game tonight has flipped from Georgia Southern 1 unit to Sam Houston at 1 unit based on the dropping line and the greater ticket count on Georgia Southern

@HooAlum

 I will get a more detailed update later this afternoon but wanted to get the noon game in because Ohio has popped with steam and line movement over the last 24 hours.  Grab while still under a touchdown. It is now a 4 unit play

After winning their conference championship game Ohio players learned on the bus heading home that their head coach was leaving for Charlotte.  It wasn't from the coach either, but from social media.  To top it off, this same coach held exit meetings the very next morning.  The players were pissed.

The offensive coordinator is loved and the players went to the higher ups to show support for him.  That is why he is now the head coach, and no one has entered the portal.

I believe Ohio will be highly motivated today for their new coach, but also because Ohio has never had an 11 win season in the history of the school. 

@HooAlum

PLAYOFF First Round

Notre Dame (1 unit) - sharp signal and low ticket favorite outweighs line movement

Penn State (3 units) - low ticket and handle favorite

Texas (5 units) - Line Movement, low ticket favorite, sharp signal

Ohio St (6 units) - low ticket and handle favorite, sharp signal

BOWL GAMES

Tulane (8 units) - steam, reverse movement, heavy bowl underdog, P5 v G5

Coastal Carolina (1 unit) - heavy handle on away favorite and heavy bowl underdog outweighs line movement

Northern Illinois (3 units) - low ticket and handle favorite

South Florida (1 unit) - lopsided wagering

Toledo-Pittsburgh (no bet) - low ticket favorite balanced P5 v G5

Rutgers (1 unit) - lopsided wagering

Arkansas St-Bowling Green (No Bet) - No indicators

Navy (10 units)  - line movement, steam, low handle favorite, reverse movement, sharp signaling P5 v G5

Vanderbilt-Georgia Tech (No Bet) - No indicators

Texas Tech (1 unit) - lopsided wagering

Washington State (1 unit) - heavy bowl underdog

Southern Cal (1 unit) - lopsided wagering

Great info. Thank you for sharing. Gl

@HooAlum

 poor start to the day.  feel robbed in Ohio as they should have closed that backdoor.  Tulane was just a bad miss where I completely misread the steam.  Even with that the other factors made it a sizable play so it was a bad miss.  Tonight is no longer Irish and now a push given that the handle moved upwards.