Public Indicator Calculations 2024

With the CFB season around the corner, it is about time for the reintroduction of the public indicator thread.  With the first games for Week 0 a little over a week out, I thought I would give refresher of last season and the indicator performance.  Most importantly not just on the final picks the indicator generates (like any thread you can value them at what you have paid for here) but how the "tells" themselves performed.  You may think a tell is not what it is valued at and find others more valuable.  That is how I strongly suggest to use the information.  I come up with my own Projections based on a formula from past performance.  You may love that formula or view it as flawed. The goal is to use the information as you see fit and hopefully, I help your wagering experience.

I'll share week 0 starting next week as I view way too early to give real numbers this far out from gametime.  It is why I usually will not post projections until starting Tuesday of a normal week.

First number though a reminder of 2023

2023: 139-106 (56.73%) Profit margin of 15.14%

2022: 158-129 (55.05%) Profit margin of 15.41%

2021: 192-152 (55.81%) Profit margin of 13.40%

2020(after a major regression analysis that really is a foundation of today's numbers): 187-141 (57.01%) Profit margin of 12.23%

2019(before 2020 changes): 157-144 (52.16%) Profit margin of -11.32% - Yes, a regression analysis is essential every year, especially on weighting certain criteria

I will post also indicator performance %s that I have measured, including some that I will not be utilizing due to poor performance.

@HooAlum

Indicator Performance (weighted%=newer years more influential)

Early Start for Western team

2023 80%

Weighted % 65.44%

Weighted W-L 74.39%

Overall W-L 74.42%

Steam

2023 74.19%

Weighted % 60.51%

Weighted W-L 63.54%

Overall W-L 61.14%

SKS (rankings out of sync with point spread)

2023 61.67%

Weighted % 56.58%

Weighted W-L 59.28%

Overall W-L 58.44%

Reverse Movement

2023 60%

Weighted % 56.56%

Weighted % W-L 58.4%

Overall W-L 57.33%

(positive Reverse Movement 68.77%; Negative Reverse Movement 53.02%)

Low Handle Favorite

2023 62.3%

Weighted % 54.78%

Weighted W-L 58.49%

Overall W-L 56.41%

(Low Bet & Handle 57.28%; Handle over 50%. for a Road Favorite 54.12%; Handle over 50% for Home Dog 46.22%)

Low Bet Favorite

2023 62.04%

Weighted % 54.33%

Weighted W-L 55.73%

Overall W-L 54.94%

(+Positive Movement 58%, + Negative Movement 46.5%)

Lopsided Tickets

2023 54.17%

Weighted % 54.11%

Weighted W-L 56.49%

Overall W-L 57.46%

(Lopsided tickets opposite movement 52.44%, lopsided tickets same as movement 55.17%, lopsided with no line movement 51.06%, Lopsided on road team 53.36%, lopsided wagering on large underdog 50.78%)

Sharp Signal (this is undergoing a major rehaul for 2024)

2023 52.08%

Weighted % 53.16%

Weighted W-L 54.98%

Line Movement

2023 53.98%;

Weighted % 52.16%

Weighted W-L 52.62%

(line movement to favorite is 52.6%; line movement to dog is 51.57%)

Lopsided Handle

2023 56.45%

Weighted % 52.77%

Weighted W-L 56.19%

(Lopsided Ticket+ Handle 55.42%; Lopsided Handle on Favorite 54.66%; on Dog 47.32%)

Bye Week

2023 54.17%

Weighted % 52.39%

Weighted W-L 52.41%

(Bye week home favorite, road narrow underdog 51.43%

Style Points (runup the score on large underdog for playoff ranking purposes)

2023 44.44%

Weighted % 50.58%

Weighted W-L 52.02%

Blowout Response

2023 36.36%

Weighted % 50.58%

Weighted W-L 45.3%

Low Over/Under w/ high point spread

2023 40%

Weighted % 50.38%

Weighted W-L 50.86% 

HooAlum,

I enjoy reading your write ups.

Have you ever considered extreme weather as an angle, similar to west coast / east coast angles?

Given conferences aren’t local anymore, there are more away teams playing in extreme heat or cold different from their normal home conditions.

Nice write-ups last season...thanks for sharing!

Appreciate your efforts. 

@matt--damon

 I bet that would be a good one but would need to find a way to measure it.  With West-East it is pretty simple.  Team that plays greater than an hour before noon their local time in a time zone east of them counts.  Pretty simple, just have to look at the schedule.  Would it be a team from teh sun belt playing in below 32 degrees?  I bet that would be pretty darn good, but I don't have readily accessible data to go back and run an analysis.  If you recorded something this upcoming season I would definitely like to analyze.

@HooAlum

 Here are the initial picks for Week 0.  SMU-Nevada may be pulled from the list as the Handle is still not there, but I am anticipating it getting there so including it for now.

Georgia Tech-Florida State (No Bet) - No indicators 

SMU (4 units) - low ticket and handle favorite and sharp signal

Hawaii (1 unit) - line movement and sharp signal outweigh lopsided handle

Would you mind giving a quick refresher / explanation on each of the categories? Or link to an old one with them? Just trying to mix & match with my own research here.

Thanks!

@HooAlum

 Friday night update.  Still not enough handle to comfortably count on SMU-Nevada so in reality no bets at present.  Looking SMU ion the wagering gets to an adequate level but it is not there yet.

Georgia Tech-Florida State (No Bet) - No indicators 

SMU (4 units) - steam, low ticket favorite and sharp signal outweighs high handle away favorite

Delaware St-Hawaii (No Bet) - line movement and sharp signal balanced by lopsided ticket & handle

@HooAlum

 Georgia Tech-Florida State unchanged on no bet.  Sorry would have loved got start the season off in 15 minutes, but I m very conscious to not overead indicators where they do not exist.  

SMU-Nevada still with not enough handle to bet and even so the wager has reduced to 2 units if it is activated thanks to the sharp signals going away.

Delaware St still has the strong lopsided betting which is a tell in their favor and the original moderate sharp signals have retreated somewhat (the sharps were all over Hawaii when Delaware St missed their initial flight) so now that late night game call is Delaware St (1 unit).  I'll update if SMU gets the handle up and the midnight Honolulu special.

@HooAlum

 late night and the first games of the season that counts.  Hawaii had line movement.  That was it as sharp signals went away.  A mere 1 unit play on the Rainbows at 39.5

Hawaii (-39.5) (1 unit) - line movement

@HooAlum

 Here is the first of week 1.  From what I have read wagering has not taken off yet as many sharps are holding their water but we do have a few games ready to go.

Thursday

Colorado (2 units) - Sharp Signal.  Sharps all over Coach Prime at present

Saturday

Clemson-Georgia (No Bet) - Over/Under Squeeze (instance where total is low but spread is high - there is a math problem to allow each to cover) and sharp signal are balanced

Texas A&M (1 unit) - Moderate SKS (line out of sync with rankings - in this case 3 points is home field - take that away and this is a push between #7 and #20 which does not make sense from a pure rankings perspective) outweighs sharp signal

Sunday

Southern Cal-LSU (No Bet) - No indicators

Monday

Florida St (2 units) - low ticket and handle favorite outweighs Over/Under squeeze

Here is Thursday Update.  two games tonight.  I anticipate TCU-Stanford tomorrow which will be a big Stanford play (maybe the biggest of the weekend) but like SMU last week (which would have been a loser) I am withholding the pick until the handle is adequate

Thursday

NEW GAME North Carolina (1 unit): low ticket favorite (barely) 

Colorado (1 unit) - Sharp Signal

Saturday

CHANGE Clemson (1 unit) - Over/Under Squeeze and lopsided wagering outweighs sharp signal

NEW GAME West Virginia (1 unit) - sharp signals outweigh low handle on favorite

NEW GAME South Dakota St-Oklahoma St (No Bet) - Lopsided wagering balanced by sharp signal

NEW GAME Miami (1 unit) - low handle on favorite 

Texas A&M (2 unit) - (my personal favorite even if tells are not that strong) small SKS and sharp signal

Sunday

CHANGE Southern Cal (1 unit) - sharp signal

Monday

CHANGE Florida St (7 units) - low ticket and handle favorite, lopsided wagering on large underdog and sharp signal outweighs Over/Under squeeze

Final Thursday update before 8pm EST starts.  Colorado coming up strong late

North Carolina (1 unit): low ticket favorite (barely) 

Colorado (6 units) - line movement, low ticket and handle favorite and Sharp Signal.  Grab it NOW at ESPNBet (-9.5) as other outlets have all gone to 10.5 or higher.  Some to 11 and 11.5.

Yes.  Lots of late buff $…. These NDakota team has not been a pushover…. Very dangerous wager in my opinion…. Gotta take points don’t cha.     I laid off.  

@Mskeets

Mskeets was spot on.

The calls went 1-1 last night, but that is not the headline.  BIG loss as the sharps (and the indicators) took a bath.   The Buffs looked like they were going to cover until they let a late touchdown ruin the day but truthfully NDSU probably "deserved" the cover so no reason to regret.  Meanwhile the UNC call got lucky with a FG miss(but as a modest win just the same) .  Both games could have gone either way so having a big amount on NDSU-CU did NOT play out well.  There is presently no action tonight but I am watching the Stanford-TCU game like a hawk.  The handle (much like SMU-Nevada last week) is just not there yet but if it comes over the line the call will almost definitely be Tree and possibly big. Game does not start until 10:30pm EST so plenty of time to let more data come in.

Also late tonight I will give a detailed post for Saturday action.

@HooAlum

Tree about to punch it in so good start for the indicators but the handle was not big enough to count.  Here are games that have qualified on the slate for tomorrow.

CHANGE Clemson (4 units) - Line movement, reverse movement, Over/Under Squeeze

West Virginia (3 units) - line movement, revere movement sharp signals outweigh low handle on favorite

CHANGE South Dakota St (1 unit) - Lopsided wagering outweighs sharp signal

CHANGE Florida (1 unit) - sharp signal outweighs low handle on favorite 

NEW GAME Miami(Ohio)-Northwestern (No Bet) - low handle favorite balanced by sharp signal

NEW GAME UNLV (1 unit) - sharp signal outweighs low handle favorite

Texas A&M (3 units) - SKS and sharp signal

NEW GAME Wyoming (2 units) - Sharp signal

@HooAlum

Last comprehensive update.  Will update games closer to gametime the rest of the day.  Some games are starting to pop so grab them (Clemson +11.5, WVU at +7.5) before all the good lines go away. May be a good idea if you can find Texas as low as possible too

Clemson (10 units) - Steam, Line movement, reverse movement, sharp signals, Over/Under Squeeze

West Virginia (6 units) - line movement, reverse movement sharp signals

South Dakota St (1 unit) - Lopsided wagering outweighs sharp signal

Florida-Miami (No Bet) - No Indicators

NEW GAME Texas (8 units) - Steam, low ticket favorite, reverse movement, sharp signal

Miami(Ohio) (1 unit) - sharp signal

UNLV (1 unit) - sharp signal outweighs low handle favorite

NEW GAME Michigan (1 unit) - sharp signal and low ticket favorite outweighs, line movement and over/under squeeze

Texas A&M (5 units) - low handle favorite, SKS and sharp signal

Wyoming (2 units) - Sharp signal

Southern Cal-LSU (No Bet) - No indicators

Florida St (7 units) - low ticket and handle favorite, lopsided wagering on heavy underdog, sharp signal outweighs over/under squeeze

@HooAlum

CHANGE: Oklahoma St (2 unit) I think we all have seen its but that steam is important.  Grab as low a spread as you can.  12.5 is still out there

@HooAlum

Won't blame anyone if they want to fade today.  Seesh what an awful start.  Pros are getting swamped today as Clemson is a surefire loser.  Here is where we sit going forward today.  I might be away until late night.

CHANGE Miami (1 unit) - low ticket favorite

Texas (10 units) - Steam, low ticket favorite, reverse movement, strong sharp signal

CHANGE Northwestern (1 unit) - low ticket and handle favorite outweighs sharp signal

UNLV (1 unit) - sharp signal outweighs low handle favorite

NEW GAME Alabama (4.5 units) - Steam, sharp signal outweighs lopsided wagering

CHANGE Fresno State (2 unit) - lopsided wagering, line movement, over/under squeeze out weighs sharp signal 

Texas A&M (5 units) - low handle favorite, SKS and sharp signal

@HooAlum

 Well a good afternoon but watching the Texas A&M-Notre Dame game closely.

Late night has a change

Arizona St (1 unit): low ticket favorite and handle outweighs sharp signal

As always, thanks for posting!

@HooAlum

  honestly have never seen a week where I was 5 games above .500 (9-4) and still was underwater.  That is what happens when the 4 losses are some of the biggest plays of the weekend.  Luckily there are two more chances to make that up and they look like players.

Southern Cal (3 units) - line movement (that is just barely not reverse movement)  and sharp signal.  As a note this has been a BAD weekend for sharps.  The sharps had Colorado, Clemson, West Virginia and Texas A&M as their biggest pros versus joes play this weekend and they were all losers.  Very interesting.

Florida State (7 units) - Florida St (7 units) - low ticket and handle favorite, lopsided wagering on heavy underdog, sharp signal outweighs over/under squeeze

@HooAlum

 Monday game has reduced in betting (and will determine whether it is a winning week or not)

Florida St (2 units) - low ticket and handle favorite outweighs over/under squeeze