Public Indicator Calculations 2024

@HooAlum

 Consensus spread hit double digits about 20 minutes ago making qa VPI play as a large underdog balance line movement and as a result thew game tonight is "no bet."

@HooAlum

 Thank you for posting all this info. Very interesting to see how it lines up with the outcomes. 

@HooAlum

 Last bowl game of the year (btw sloppy job yesterday on sharp action in the Minnesota game as it was apparent but was on my phone and not my computer so missed a key numbers update on the handle.  It was only a single unit but still not good reporting by me.  The handle also reached the level I the early game but there was sharp signal.

Buffalo (1 unit) - line movement

love the info. any early indicators on the two big games coming up

@HooAlum

 We are down to the CFP semifinals and not a lot of action in terms of indicators yet.  But it is a common refrain on both as the favorites in each game are lower ranked (and Ohio State by more than a FG).  That. means SKS is the sole indicator.  It is a good one as SKS is 61.82% this season and 2-1 in bowl season, including 2-0 in the playoffs (ironically the 2 wins were last round with Notre Dame and Ohio State).  I am sure we will see some more action whether it is sharp signals or line movement but for now this is what we got.

Notre Dame (2 units) - SKS

Ohio State (3 units) - strong SKS

@HooAlum

 Anything on the FCS championship game tonight 

@HooAlum

 I'd love to give new numbers since it is gamely for one of the semis but for now both have stayed constant.  I am sure more helpful info will come before game time so watch line moves just in case but sort of quiet right now.

Notre Dame (2 units) - SKS

Ohio State (3 units) - strong SKS

@HooAlum

 Still no change.  Call tonight is Notre Dame 2 units.  We could se line movement toward Penn State though as a few books have it down to 1 so watch that angle.  If going with teh Irish I would grab the -1 at MGM, Caesars and ESPNBet

@HooAlum

 Well, that was a big development.  I think the big fish have weighed in on the Nitty Lions.

Line just jumped the fence.  That swings all sorts of things to Penn State.  Line movement, steam, favorite under 50% ticket count and the SKS disappears.  It is now a 6 unit play for PSU.  I will monitor but maybe you can catch a few books napping (MGM PSU +1, Caesars and ESPNBet at -1.  Everyone else steamed their way to PSU (-1.5).

@HooAlum

 Well, that was a killer last night as I really do think PSU was the better team and should have won.  Oh well.  Yesterday when I posted nothing changed within 20 minutes we finally saw some movement that had a huge impact (too bad it turned a 2 unit Irish play to a 6 unit Penn State play thus an 8 unit negative swing).  Same for tonight as now indicators have popped so the 3 unit SKS play is all there is.  Unlike last night the SKS will not reverse and likely stay.  In addition, for line movement to matter it needs to grow to outside the toggle zone of 5.5-6.5.  If you want to pull the trigger for the buckeyes now, FanDuel sits now at 5.5 while everyone else is at 6.  I guess if the overall spread drop there is a chance for reverse movement in the horns favor but we need to monitor all the factors when that occurs and besides FanDuel nobody else is showing that.

@HooAlum

 Very early a week out from Championship Monday and the Buckeyes are an early heavy call bu the line movement that is starting to go to the Irish makes it interesting and not yet a done deal.

Ohio State (7 units) - Strong SKS, low ticket and handle favorite

@HooAlum

 A little sharp action has come in on the Buckeyes as the spread remains a little over a touchdown.  That means we remain with a pretty strong Buckeye play at present:

Ohio State (8 units) - Strong SKS, low ticket and handle favorite, sharp signal

@HooAlum

 lol I think you are reading it backwards dude… low tickets on OSU?? Hahaha what are you talking about?  The whole world is on Ohio state and the line has gone from 9.5 to 8.  That, to you, indicates sharp Ohio state money?  Just lol dude…

@HooAlum

 The low ticket count went away on Ohio State but it still remains a solid 6 unit play due to low handle favorite, sharp signal and SKS.

Don’t overthink this varsity vs junior varsity 

OSU 37

ND   13

BOOK IT!

@HooAlum

 Sharps are starting to make their call on the Buckeyes.  Now a 7 unit play with low handle favroite, SKS and sharp signal

Great stuff and solid year Hoo!  Thanks for the work you put in on this, and look forward to next season!

@HooAlum

 I wanted to let dust settle from college basketball settle and time to go through a nice summary of the season.  I will begin my regression analysis in an attempt to improve the system for 2025 but here are the results for the season on overall record and specific indicators.

SEASON W-L RECORD

140-97 (59.07%)

SEASON REVENUE

1038.5 units won on 956 wagered (8.64% profit)

BOWL RECORD

21-17

BOWL REVENUE

153 units on 140 wagered (9.29% profit) - Thanks to the Buckeyes on that one.  Huge 7 unit play in the championship game was the difference between a profitable bowl season and a loss due to the vig (would have been a 0.3 loss).

INDICATOR PERFORMANCE (drill down not just the broad categories I list weekly) over the last 6 years both weighted % and 2024 performance

West Coast team, early East coast start: 65.44% (50% in 2024 - only 2 games qualified in 2024)

SKS (Somebody Knows Something - the original tell) 61.96% (66.13% in 2024)

Steam: 61.30% (weighted average); 52.38% in 2024

Reverse Movement: 59.45% (58.7% in 2024); Positive Reverse Movement 67.26% (only 45.45% in 2024); Negative Reverse Movement 57.31% (62.86% in 2024)

Low Bet+ Low Handle Favorite: 58.93% (54.43% in 2024) 

Sharp Indicator Power Formula: 58.56% (64.85% in 2024 - there was a major overhaul last year so hopefully this is a sign of things to come); Sharp Indicator straight up on signal 57.7% (64.84% in 2024)

Low Bet Favorite: 56.15% (55.45% in 2024); Positive Movement Low bet 52% (32% IN 2024); Negative movement 49.37% (58.62% in 2024); No Movement 59.75% (64.91% in 2024)

Low Handle Favorite: 53.3% (49.11% in 2024)

No Line Movement on lopsided wagering: 53.06% (56% in 2024) 

Over/Under Squeeze: 52.98% (57.14% in 2024); Extreme Over/Under squeeze (lower O/U) 57.28% (66.67% in 2024)

Line Movement: 52.77% (51.85% in 2024) Line movement to favorite 51.65% (47.14% in 2024), Line movement to underdog 53.88% (56.92%)

Lopsided Wagering: 52.73% (45.87% in 2024); Lopsided Handle 50.57% (46.15% in 2024); Favorite Lopsided Handle 49.83% (46.2% in 2024); Underdog lopsided Handle 58.75% (70% in 2024); line Movement same as lopsided wagering: 64.43% (77.78% in 2024); Line Movement opposite lopsided wagering: 42.12% (19.05% in 2024!!!); Lopsided Wagering on heavy underdog 62.58% (66.67% in 2024 - only 3 games); Lopsided wagering in road favorite 52.48% (47.37% in 2024)

Bye Week Return: 52.39%

Handle on road favorite: 52.1% (46.48% in 2024)

Style Points: 50.58% (50% in 2024)

Lopsided wagering + Low Bet favorite: 49.86% (33.33% in 2024 - only 3 games)

Handle on road underdog: 46.22% (50% in 2024)

Bowl Specific Tells

Bowl Snub: 100% in 2024 (also 100% in 2023, 50% in 2022; 100% in 2021, 60% in 2020 - so yeah, a pretty gapped tell but usually only 2-3 a year)

P5 v G5 (bet on G5): 71% in 2024 (but only 22% in 2023)