Public Indicator Calculations 2024

@HooAlum

Week 3 was a replay of week 1 (and that is not good).  Not an awful record (9-9) but an awful unit allocation.  It actually would have been salvaged if not for the TCU-UCF debacle but hey I got an advantage from Oklahoma St last week so you cannot complain.  Every now and then I realize mistakes that were made (see sharp analysis in week 1).  To show the honest analysis I failed to include 2 units in bets that were losses (did not input Purdue and UCLA's bye weeks from week 2) thus the week was even worse than reported.  The result is that the season is now a loss in the vig range.  Texas State would have been nice as well. the indicators would be up for the season on that game alone.

WEEKLY RECORD: 9-9

SEASON RECORD: 25-19

WEEKLY REVENUE: 51.3 units on 65.5 wagered (loss of 14.3)

SEASON REVENUE: 150.6 units on 151 wagered (loss of 0.26%)

INDICATOR PERFORMANCE

Lopsided Ticket Wagering: 66.67%

Low Bet Favorite: 64.71%

Sharp Analysis: 64%

Reverse Movement: 57.14%

Lopsided Handle: 55.56%

Steam: 50% (this was the killer last week as you may remember last week this was 75%)

Line Movement: 50%

Over/Under Squeeze: 50%

Low Handle Favorite: 42.11%

Handle >50% on road favorite: 41.67%

SKS: 33.33%

Bye Week Return: 0% (0-3)

This week early projections

Nebraska (4 units): low handle favorite, lopsided ticket, Sharp signal outweighs line movement

NC St-Clemson (No bet): over/under squeeze balanced with bye week return

Michigan-Southern Cal (No bet): road favorite majority handle balanced with bye week return

Oklahoma St-Utah (No bet): No Indicators

Minnesota (3 units): lopsided wagering, road favorite majority handle, lopsided road favorite

Oklahoma (4 units): lopsided wagering, road favorite majority handle, lopsided road favorite outweighs sharp signal

Colorado (1 unit): low ticket favorite

@HooAlum

Great pick with Kentucky last week!  There’s no way I’d have chosen them if I hadn’t read your analysis first.

@HooAlum

 Here is the midday Friday report.  May update tonight later this afternoon and then likely will have a late night comprehensive submission

Nebraska (3 units): low ticket and handle favorite and small SKS outweighs line movement

NEW GAME: Kansas-West Virginia (No Bet) - No indicators yet but now has handle

CHANGE: Clemson (3 units): low ticket favorite, bye week return and sharp signal outweighs over/under squeeze

CHANGE: Michigan (2 units): lopsided wagering with road favorite, road favorite majority handle outweighs bye week return

CHANGE: Oklahoma St (1 unit): small SKS

NEW GAME: Northwestern (4 units): lopsided wagering and over/under squeeze

Minnesota (5 units): lopsided wagering, road favorite majority handle, lopsided road favorite

Oklahoma (3 units): lopsided wagering, lopsided road favorite, sharp signal outweighs SKS and low handle favorite

CHANGE: Baylor-Colorado (1 unit): No Indicator

@HooAlum

 Nebraska unchanged and still 3 units

@HooAlum

Kansas-West Virginia (No Bet) - Line Movement balanced by sharp indicator

Clemson (2 units): low ticket favorite, bye week return and sharp signal outweighs over/under squeeze

NEW GAME: Louisville (5 units): low ticket and handle favorite, sharp signal, bye week return

Michigan (3 units):  road favorite majority handle and reverse movement outweighs bye week return

NEW GAME: LSU (1 unit): low handle favroite and sharp signal outweighs line movement

CHANGE: Utah (6 units): steam, reverse movement (note weird line movement similar to UCF-TCU last week and we all may remember how that ended up)

Northwestern (3 units): lopsided wagering and over/under squeeze outweighs line movement

Minnesota (5 units): lopsided wagering, road favorite majority handle, lopsided road favorite

Oklahoma (3 units): lopsided wagering, lopsided road favorite, sharp signal outweighs SKS and low handle favorite

Baylor-Colorado (1 unit): No Indicator

@HooAlum

 West Virginia has popped up to 3 units overnight with low ticket and handle along with sharp outweighing line movement.  As a note the tells are identical to Nebraska which did not work out last night.

@HooAlum

 Yea i actually like Kansas a bit in that game though I didnt play them. I really really like the Minnesota play. 

I bet Baylor ml -115 at open and couldn't believe the line moved the other way

@HooAlum

 I’m running out the door for the early noon games but Ohio state Marshall just got enough handle. Those who follow the indicators can tell this is a decent play on the Herd.  Lopsided wagering and over under squeeze pop. Let’s talk over under squeeze here. Point spread is 40+ and total is 52.5. If Marshall scores a single touchdown in garbage time something has to give. 

@HooAlum

Quick additional noon game updates

Rice (3 units): lopsided wagering and sharp signal outweighs line movement

How often do the big(5 unit or more) games hit?

@HooAlum

Midday Report

Yay Clemson boo Rice

Virginia (4 units): low ticket and handle favorite and sharp signal

Louisville (4 units): low ticket and handle favorite and sharp signal and bye week return outweighs line movement

Michigan (3 units): Line movement, road favorite majority handle, reverse movement outweighs bye week return

UCLA-LSU (No Bet): sharp signal balanced by line movement

Utah-Oklahoma St (No Bet): No indicators but a lot of betting (all the indicators like steam and reverse movement went in teh trash after all this wackiness of jumping the fence several times)

@HooAlum

Hang on Wolverines!  Would be a nice win, but the indicators did get the nice Mountaineer last second TD that makes ups portion of the burn felt from TCU-UCF.  New games and one I just shake my head.  yes, Florida St will get the call for the fourth straight week.  The indicators are simply a button for punishment.

Evening Update

South Florida (2 units): majority handle on road favorite, sharp signal

Florida St (4 units): low ticket favorite, heavy sharp signal

Northwestern (1 unit): over/under squeeze and lopsided wagering outweighs line movement and sharp signal

Minnesota (5 units): lopsided wagering, majority handle on road favorite, lopsided way favroite

Oklahoma (5 units): majority handle on road favorite, reverse movement, sharp signal (point spread is dropping get as high as you can)

Michigan St-Boston College (No bet): No Indicators

Colorado (1 unit): low handle favorite

@HooAlum

Great call on Florida State!

@HooAlum

Weeks like last week are precisely what the indicators are about.  They are never meant to be 100% but to get you above the big and allow you to grind out weekly wins.  Last week was the prefect grinder week with a modest profit that was just putting solid games together (and got a nevi lucky break in Colorado-Baylor but that was only a 1 unit play).  Bottom line is back to positive revenue for the season after a pretty bad week 3.

LAST WEEK RECORD: 8-6

SEASON RECORD: 33-25 (56.9%)

LAST WEEK REVENUE: 45.6 units on 41 wagered

SEASON REVENUE: 196.2 units on 192 wagered (2.19% profit)

INDICATOR PERFORMANCE

Low Bet Favorite (68.18%)

Sharp Signals (62.5%)

Lopsided Wagering (58.33%)

Line Movement (55.8%)

Reverse Movement (54.55%)

Steam (50%)

Low Handle Favorite (50%)

SKS (50%)

Over/under squeeze (46.15%)

Bye Week Return (42.86%)

Handle majority on road favorite (35.29%)

Early Week 5 Game Outlook

Virginia Tech-Miami (No Bet) - No Indicators

Kansas State (2 units) - SKS

UNLV (1 unit) - Bye Week Return

Arkansas (3 units) - Lopsided wagering

Notre Dame (4 units) - sharp signal & SKS

North Carolina-Duke (No Bet) - No indicators

Penn State (3 units) - low ticket and handle favorite and sharp signal outweighs over/under squeeze

Alabama (1 unit) - sharp signal

Washington State-Boise St (No Bet) - No indicators 

(handle not there yet but pay attention to Baylor-BYU we have our first western early start of the season, plus Baylor has a nice SKS play - Bears looking good early)

Interesting thread and process and a good read each week.

Question, you update a lot and things move a lot through the week and up until the games kick.  How do you grade, the final plays at kick?

Just wondering given how much shifts over the days leading up to the game if there is much utility in the updates until then, how do you use it?

@Geauxtigers03

 great question.  I grade the final post and tells.  However, I will also correct input mistakes.  It is about the information performance that actually occurred so people can assess individual traits for themselves going forward (I try to help you learn to fish if you like the analysis, not just give you a fish).  The math has to be paramount.  If the math is wrong in its assessment then the math is wrong and a regression analysis may be necessary, thus,  it is not a guess but an incorrect output.  But if the calculations of the math are wroing it needs to be corrected (and public noted)

Two examples that are notable this year is that the algorithm was programmed incorrectly and went to the favRoite on one aspect of sharp signal analysis (I only noticed it when it came in 2-9 and I said what happened and realized the program itself was off and the tell was actually 6-5).  That was a benefit to the indicator performance.  On the other hand I did not input two bye week returns.  Total man euro but those were both losses.  They need to be recorded as losses going forward so people can make an honest analysis on the factor.  in this case it was to the detriment of that indicator.

 I like to have an assessment wrapped up between 15- and 30 minutes before kick but sometimes things break really late and I will try to rush it out.  I try to educate as I post so that others can see my methodology and if there is a late call they know why.  Sometimes the late call works (West Virginia last week) sometimes it does not (Rice last week).  On the whole late calls are more accurate because that is when sharps often play.  For example everyone can see a line jump late.  It will come as no surprise that the indicators will take a ride (but I really do try not to do it in the last 5 minutes before kick)

@HooAlum

 Midday Friday Update.  A lot of new games reaching handle status but two not yet to watch: Baylor as I mentioned before and Auburn with the jumping the fence and steam along with reverse movement.  

Early Week 5 Game Outlook

Virginia Tech-Miami (No Bet) - Low favorite handle balanced by sharp signal 

NEW GAME: Maryland (4 units) - lopsided wagering and sharp signal 

NEW GAME: Kentucky (4 units) - line movement, steam and sharp signal outweighs low handle favorite

Kansas State (2 units) - SKS, sharp signal outweighs lopsided wagering

NEW GAME: Minnesota (1 unit) - lopsided wagering outweighs sharp signal

NEW GAME: UCF (6 units) - low ticket and handle favorite, lopsided wagering and bye week return

UNLV (2 unit) - lopsided wagering and Bye Week Return outweighs sharp signal 

Arkansas (1 units) - Lopsided wagering outweighs sharp signal

Notre Dame (4 units) - sharp signal & SKS

NEW GAME: Wisconsin (1 unit) - bye week return

North Carolina-Duke (No Bet) - No indicators

Penn State (7 units) - low ticket and handle favorite, lopsided wagering, and sharp signal outweighs over/under squeeze

Alabama (1 unit) - line movement and sharp signal outweighs low handle favorite

CHANGE: Boise St (3 units) - low ticket and handle favorite

@HooAlum

 Friday night games (yes games as Washington-Rutgers was added)

Virginia Tech (2 units) - sharp signal

Rutgers (2 units) - low ticket favorite and sharp signal outweighs line movement

@HooAlum

Late Night Update.  I might update by time slot tomorrow depending on time.  Once again, I am waiting on the Baylor and Auburn calls as both are double digit unit plays of the handle gets there.  if you already like them feel free tp jump on it.  The entire weekend already is very expensive even if those two do not mature as we are going to have several "last chance" games late night tomorrow to help make up money.

Maryland (5 units) - lopsided wagering and sharp signal

NEW GAME: Purdue (2 units) - lopsided wagering, majority handle on road favorite outweighs sharp signal

Kentucky (4 units) - line movement, steam and sharp signal outweighs low handle favorite

Kansas State (3 units) - SKS, sharp signal outweighs lopsided wagering

Minnesota (4 units) - lopsided wagering and sharp signal

UCF (7 units) - low ticket and handle favorite, reverse movement sharp signal and bye week return

UNLV (3 units) - low ticket and handle favorite and Bye Week Return outweighs sharp signal

Arkansas (2 units) - Lopsided wagering

Notre Dame (4 units) - sharp signal & SKS

CHANGE: Southern Cal (2 units) - low ticket and handle favrorite outweighs bye week return

CHANGE: Duke (1 unit) - Sharp Signal

Penn State (6 units) - low ticket and handle favorite, lopsided wagering, and sharp signal outweighs over/under squeeze

Alabama (3 units) - line movement and sharp signal outweighs low handle favorite

Boise St (3 units) - low ticket and handle favorite

NEW GAME: Arizona (8 units) - line movement, steam, lopsided handle, sharp signal, bye week return

NEW GAME: Oregon (7 units) - low ticket and handle favorite, line movement, sharp signal, bye week return

Noon time slot with a note.  Oklahoma-Auburn (a big play) has made the handle and is reported here even though it is a 3:30 start.  still waiting on BYU-Baylor which will be a huge Baylor play (10 units).  I don't know if it will get there but want to note it as I am out before noon so want to note it for transparency purposes.

Maryland (3 units) - lopsided wagering and sharp signal

Purdue (4 units) - lopsided wagering, majority handle on road favorite and sharp signal flipped (lot of these numbers are on the edge it coiler go to 5 units or fall back to 2 like overnight I suggest people to look closely at the 10 point spread going to 9.5 or 10.5)

Kentucky (3 units) - line movement, steam outweighs low handle favorite

Kansas State (5 units) - SKS, sharp signal outweighs lopsided wagering

Minnesota (3 units) - lopsided wagering and sharp signal

Auburn (8 units) - line movement, steam, low ticket handle, SKS and sharp signal

Among the 2 games with big time potential I was watching Oklahoma-Auburn has now made the handle level and included here.  BYU-Baylor has not made it to the handle necessary yet but it is a 10 unit play on Baylor if it does so want to mention for transparency purposes since I am walking out the door.

Maryland (3 units) - lopsided wagering and sharp signal

Purdue (4 units) - lopsided wagering, majority handle on road favorite and sharp signal flipped (lot of numbers on teh edge here so the range is as high as 5 and as low as 2 like last night)

Kentucky (3 units) - line movement, steam and sharp signal outweighs low handle favorite

Kansas State (5 units) - low handle favorite, SKS, sharp signal outweighs lopsided wagering

Minnesota (3 units) - lopsided wagering and sharp signal

NEW GAME: Auburn (8 units) - line movement, steam, low ticket favorite, SKS, and sharp signal

Also as a note UGA-Bama is now a no bet

Afternoon and early evening games with that Auburn add being the big note

UCF (5 units) - low ticket and handle favorite, sharp signal and bye week return

Auburn (8 units) - line movement and steam, low ticket handle, sharp signal, SKS

UNLV (4 units) - low ticket and handle favorite and Bye Week Return

Texas A&M-Arkansas (No bet) - Low ticket favorite balanced with sharp signal

Notre Dame (3 units) - sharp signal & SKS

Southern Cal (2 units) - low ticket and handle favrorite outweighs bye week return

Duke (2 unit) - low ticket favorite, Sharp Signal

Penn State (5 units) - low ticket and handle favorite, lopsided wagering, and sharp signal outweighs over/under squeeze

Alabama-Georgia (No0 Bet)  - low ticket and handle favorite balanced by line movement and sharp signal

@HooAlum

Lotta tells for the late night games have gone away (wish I could claim Alabama had some late tells :-). Nope.  This is a shock plain and simple.  I can now directly report since it is up in the air but the lopsided wagering flipped in Penn st Illinois affecting the results there.

Washington St (4 units) - lopsided wagering and heavy sharp action

Arizona-Utah (No bet) - big reduction from last night's report as low ticket and handle are balance by line movement, bye week return and sharp signal

UCLA (1 unit) - steam outweighs sharp and bye week

@HooAlum

The weird pattern of this season where the big unit games lose but breakeven occurs because the smaller games come home.  I have rarely had a W-L this good but never have had such a bad record in high value games (which is not a good thing because I assume people following this thread pick out the high value ones).  Wish I had kept Arizona on that huge 7 unit play that was pulled late and essentially replaced by that Washington St loser.

WEEKLY W-L: 10-5

WEEKLY REVENUE: 55.2 units on 54 wagered

SEASON W-L: 43-30 (58.9%)

SEASON REVENUE: 251.4 units on 246 wagered (2.2% profit)

*******

INDICATOR PERFOMANCE

SKS 66.67%

Sharp Signal 62.65%

Low Bet Favorite 60%

Steam 55.56%

Line Movement 55%

Reverse Movement 54.55%

Lopsided Wagering 50%

Low Handle Favorite 50%

Over/Under Squeeze 50%

Bye Week Return: 41.67%

High handle on Road Favorite: 33% (this is a new tell and it is NOT performing as you can see - if it were not implemented this year profit margin would go from 2.2% to 4.75%)

*******

Early Projections (very  favorite friendly - we shall see if some of those low ticket and handle numbers continue)

Oregon (2 units) - low ticket and handle favorite outweighs over/under squeeze

UNLV (5 units) - low ticket and handle favorite, sharp signal

Louisville (3 units) - low ticket favorite, sharp signal

Boston College-Virginia (No Bet) - low ticket favorite balanced by sharp signal

Texas A&M (5 units) - low ticket and handle favorite SKS outweighs sharp signal

Georgia (2 units) - low ticket and handle favorite outweighs over/under squeeze

Ole Miss (5 units) - low ticket and handle favorite and sharp signal

Ohio State (3 units) - low ticket and handle favorite sharp signal outweighs over/under squeeze

Michigan (5 units) - low ticket and handle favorite and SKS

Florida (1 unit) - sharp signal outweighs low handle favorite

Cal-Miami (No bet) low handle favorite balanced by sharp signal

@HooAlum

 First year following and greatly appreciate the breakdowns.  Dumb question but needs answered.  Is Low Bet Favorite and Low ticket the same thing?