Public Indicator Calculations 2024

@HooAlum

 florida st still a modest play thanks to low ticket and handle on the Noles balanced by over/under squeeze and sharp signal

@HooAlum

 Well, the good news is that the analysis went 10-5 ATS.  The bad news is that the values were off so much on those 5 that it was down a half a unit for the week (s essential the big cost it a profit)  The overall is so close it is as if we are starting over this week so hopefully the big plays come through this week.  I'll wait a week to breakdown tell performance bu the highlights are that steam continues its strong performance at 3-1 while line movement was 2-4.  Low bet % for the favorite was 4-2 as was weighted values for lopsided wagering.  Everything else was between 40% and 60%.  Much of it was 50% at 1-1 or 2-2. 

SEASON RECORD: 10-6 (includes 0-1 in week 0)

SEASON REVENUE: 56.1 units on 57.5 wagered (loss of 2.43%)

Week 2 Games

Syracuse (6 units) - Lopsided wagering, high handle on an away favorite (which favors the home underdog) and reverse movement

Texas-Michigan (No Bet) - lopsided wagering with high handle on away favorite balanced by sharp signal and SKS (line out of sync with ranking)

Oklahoma St (1 unit) - low ticket favorite

South Carolina (2 units) - lopsided wagering and over/under squeeze outweighs sharp signal

Iowa St-Iowa (No Bet) - low handle favorite balanced by sharp signal

Tennessee (5 units) - lopsided wagering, low ticket and handle favorite

Colorado-Nebraska (No bet) - lopsided wagering balanced by sharp signal

Appalachian st (1 unit) - lopsided wagering outweighs sharp signal

Oregon (2 units) - low ticket favorite and sharp signal

@HooAlum

 Friday night and neither game tonight of note has reached betting status as I suspect the NFL game in Brazil is taking away almost all action.  However, plenty of wagering on Saturday ready to go.

Syracuse (3 units) - Lopsided wagering, high handle on an away favorite and sharp signal

Michigan (1 unit) - high handle on away favorite and reverse movement outweighs sharp signal and SKS

SIGNIFICANT WAGER AMOUNT CHANGE: Oklahoma St (8 units) - steam, line movement, low ticket and handle favorite

South Carolina (2 units) - line movement and over/under squeeze outweighs sharp signal

CHANGE: Iowa St (2 units) - sharp signal

NEW GAME: Maryland (3 units) - low ticket favorite and sharp signal

NEW GAME: Illinois (2 units) - line movement, road favorite with high handle

CHANGE: NC State (1 unit) - sharp signal outweighs line movement

CHANGE: Colorado (2 units) -sharp signal

Appalachian St (2 units) - lopsided wagering and over/under squeeze outweighs sharp signal

Oregon (3 units) - low ticket and handle favorite

@HooAlum

 Do you have any insight to the big move in the OK state game? I have Arkansas +7.5 and felt good about it but not so good now that its moved to 9.5

@HooAlum

Late night calls.  Will have one more comprehensive likely tomorrow and then just individual updates throughout the day.  As for Yanasaur question, I do nto know but the big movement with steam is precisely the reason for the big play on the Cowboys

Syracuse (5 units) - Lopsided wagering, high handle on an away favorite and large sharp signal

Michigan (3 units) - high handle on away favorite and reverse movement and sharp signal outweighs SKS

Oklahoma St (7 units) - steam, line movement, low ticket and handle favorite

South Carolina (3 units) - line movement lopsided wagering and over/under squeeze outweighs sharp signal outweighs sharp signal

CHANGE: Iowa (2 units) - sharp signal flipped and low ticket favorite

Maryland (2 units) - low ticket favorite and sharp signal

Illinois (2 units) - line movement, road favorite with high handle

NC State (2 units) - strong sharp signal outweighs line movement

CHANGE: Colorado-Nebraska (No Bet) - no indicators

NEW GAME: Houston (7 units) lopsided wagering, strong sharp signal, over/under squeeze outweighs low handle favorite

CHANGE: Clemson (1 unit) - low ticket favorite and sharp signal outweighs over/under squeeze

Oregon (2 units) - low ticket and handle favorite outweighs sharp signal

Also, doing a housekeeping issue.  the sharp signal has been corrected as a small factor was spiting out everything for the favorite on that small portion of the analysis (I found it today while doing a regression analysis since it was 2-7 last week - well, not so much actually it was 5-4 after correcting the program).  The correction negatively affects Alabama-WKU but positively affects Fresno-Michigan ND-TAMU and SC-LSU. No game flipped on the pick but wanted to share for transparency purposes as it was an embarrassing coding error that affected the units played.

@HooAlum

Pretty big changes overnight.  Most notably the pullback of Oklahoma St from (-10) to (-9.5).  That eliminates the steam element that was driving the high return (remember steam over the last 5 years is an over 60% tell W-L it is an amazing 64%).  This combined with more tickets on Oklahoma St shows that they are no longer undervalued.  They are still the choice but at a much lower level of confidence.  After this update, I will update before each time slot.

Syracuse (4 units) - high handle on an away favorite and large sharp signal

NEW GAME: Tulane (1 unit) - line movement

NEW GAME: Bowling Green (4 units) - lopsided wagering, reverse movement and over/under squeeze

Michigan (3 units) - high handle on away favorite and reverse movement and sharp signal outweighs SKS

Oklahoma St (1 unit) - line movement, low handle favorite outweighs sharp signal

CHANGE: South Carolina-Kentucky (No Bet) - line movement balanced by sharp signal

CHANGE: Iowa St-Iowa (No Bet) - No Indicators

Maryland (3 units) - low ticket and handle favorite

NEW GAME: Sam Houston (1 unit) - sharp signal outweighs lopsided wagering

NEW GAME: South Florida (3 units) - lopsided wagering

Illinois (1 unit) - line movement

NC State (2 units) - strong sharp signal outweighs line movement

Colorado-Nebraska (No Bet) - no indicators

Houston (7 units) lopsided wagering, strong sharp signal, over/under squeeze outweighs low handle favorite

Clemson (1 unit) - low ticket favorite and sharp signal outweighs over/under squeeze

Oregon (2 units) - low ticket and handle favorite outweighs sharp signal

Good stuff, thanks for the update. On the same side for tulane, michigan, and houston. Only opposite of you on OK state. 

@HooAlum

 Noon Games

Syracuse (4 units) - high handle on an away favorite and large sharp signal

CHANGE: Tulane-K State (No Bet) - line movement balanced by low handle favorite

Bowling Green (4 units) - lopsided wagering, reverse movement and over/under squeeze outweighs sharp signal

Michigan (4 units) - high handle on away favorite and reverse movement and sharp signal

Arkansas-Oklahoma St (No Bet) - line movement balances sharp signal (wow that changed late)

@HooAlum

 Well, I had Bowling Green to cover with a solid number of units but never in my wildest dreams did I think they could pull off the money line.  We shall see.  Yanasaur, your instinct on Arkansas definitely is the better play to date.  

Here is the midday slate. 

South Carolina-Kentucky (No Bet) - line movement balanced by sharp signal

CHANGE: Iowa (1 unit) - Low Handle Favorite

Maryland (3 units) - low ticket and handle favorite

@HooAlum

 Im kicking myself on that bowling green. I kept looking at it all week and just never pulled the trigger. What an easy cover. 

Arkansas and Tulane looking great. I think all the steam on OK State was because of Arkansas center

@Yanasaur

 I don't think the line would've jumped from 7' to 10 because of an injury to a center.  I think it's more likely somebody dropped some serious loot on the Cowboys and forced the line move.  Glad I waited to bet that game. 

@Boisestateand8

 Right i mean maybe that news was the reason for someone going heavy on it

@HooAlum

Night games.  Still looking Houston as the key play

Sam Houston-UCF (No Bet) - sharp signal balanced by low handle favorite

South Florida (1 unit) - lopsided wagering outweighs sharp signal

Illinois (2 units) - line movement and heavy money on road favorite 

NC State (2 units) - strong sharp signal outweighs line movement

Nebraska (1 unit) - low ticket favorite

Houston (8 units) lopsided wagering, strong sharp signal, over/under squeeze outweighs and reverse movement

Clemson (2 units) - low ticket favorite and sharp signal outweighs over/under squeeze

Oregon (2 units) - low ticket favorite balanced by sharp signal

@HooAlum

 Late night game about to start has gone to no bet as the indicators have gone away

@HooAlum Great call on the Houston Cougars last night!  There was never a doubt!

Pretty good results for week 2 it looks like 

@HooAlum

Appreciate it bwestaustin (I assume by that handle you were in a good mood) and Yanasaur.  It was a solid week that pout the season on a good position.  Where did you get Oklahoma St Arkansas.  I know a lot of people all over that 8 point final.   I am just glad that the system went to zero at the end to avoid that altogether.

WEEKLY RECORD: 6-4

SEASON RECORD: 16-10

WEEKLY REVENUE: 30 units wagered 39.9 units won (+9.9 net)

SEASON REVENUE: 85.5 units wagered 99.3 units won (+13.8 net) 16.14% profit

Season Indicator Performance

Lopsided Tickets: 100% (1-0)

Steam: 75%

Lopsided Handle: 75%

Low Bet Favorite: 66.67%

Handle >50% on road favorite: 66.67%

Over/Under Squeeze: 66.67%

Reverse Movement: 57.14%

Line Movement: 50%

Sharp Signals: 47.37%

Low Handle Favorite: 41.67%

SKS: 33.33%

Early Week 3 Games

UNLV (3 units): Lopsided Wagering

Kansas State (7 units): lopsided wagering, low ticket and handle favorite, sharp signal

Wisconsin (1 unit) ; lopsided wagering, road favorite over 50% handle outweighs sharp signal

Florida St (3 units): low ticket and handle favorite

LSU ( 5 units): low ticket and handle favorite and lopsided wagering

Florida (4 units): lopsided wagering and road favorite over 50% handle

Washington-Washington St (NO Bet): low ticket favorite balanced by sharp signal

Oregon (5 units): low ticket and handle favorite lopsided wagering

Notre Dame (5 units): low ticket and handle favorite lopsided wagering

UCF (6.5 units): Steam, line movement, low handle favorite

Georgia (1 unit): line movement, low ticket favorite, sharp signal outweighs handle over 50% and over/under squeeze

Colorado (2 units): low ticket and handle favorite over line movement

@HooAlum

 I landed right on the push on that Arkansas game, thought i had the 8.5 at first and then saw the bad news. 

I already played oregon state unfortunately at 14. I really anticipated the line moving down not up. And Florida is one ive been watching for a better number. And in on the 7 on UNLV. And I just can never bring myself to bet on a road favorite. I dont think ive done it in at least 3 years.

@HooAlum

 Something is up today.  Handle is skyrocketing in ASU-Texas State.  It is now a 12 unit play (that is often the biggest play over several weekends).  That is based on the spread jumping the fence, both low ticket and handle underdog, major line movement that is reverse movement in a positive direction.  Grab while you can at FanDuel at (-2.5).  This is a really big play and has come out of nowhere today.  Very unusual.  You only see stuff like this a handful of times a season.

@HooAlum

 very disappointing result.  Basically blew the entire kitty on that game last night.  I follow the numbers but UGH!!!!  Here is what we have for tonight

UNLV (1 unit): sharp indicator and lopsided wagering outweighs line movement

Kansas St (4 units): low ticket and handle favroite as well as sharp signal

FanDual has the best odds on both with +9.5 UNLV and -6.5 K State  

@HooAlum

 I had Texas state too. I only play 1 or 2 units for 95% of my plays though, but they had every opportunity to win that game. 

Looking forward to seeing what you have for today

@HooAlum

Well the indicators are 2-1 this weekend but still well underwater since Thursday was such a big play (at least Kansas State got a decent amount back).  Here is the morning update for the day.  Remaining updates will be by time slot.

Wisconsin (3 units) road favorite over 50% handle, lopsided wagering and over/under squeeze outweighs line movement

Florida St (4 units): low ticket and handle favorite and bye week return

LSU (1 unit): low ticket and handle favorite  outweighs line movement and sharp signal

Missouri (3 units): low ticket and handle favorite

Florida (1 unit): road favorite over 50% handle

Washington St (3 units): lopsided wagering and sharp signal

Oregon (4 units): low ticket favorite, reverse movement & sharp signal outweighs road handle over 50% and over/under squeeze

Pitt (3 units): line movement, reverse movement, road favorite handle over 50% outweighs sharp signal

Tulane-Oklahoma (No Bet): low ticket and handle favorite balanced line movement, sharp signal & over/under squeeze

Purdue (4.5 units): line movement, steam, road favroite majority handle outweighs low ticket favorite and small sharp signal

UTSA (6 units): lopsided wagering and heavy sharp signal

TCU (4 units): line movement, low ticket and handle favorite outweighs sharp signal (I have never seen a game jump the fence multiple times  - not including bouncing quickly - this game is confusing so may just want to take things with a green of salt)

Kentucky (6 unit): lopsided wagering, handle over 50%, over/under squeeze and sharp signal

Colorado st-Colorado (No bet): low ticket and handle favorite balanced by line movement and sharp signal

@HooAlum

 Might be last update before noon games and just wanted to report one change.  LSU now has a majority handle on the road so that means South Carolina has the 2 unit advantage

@HooAlum

Great call on Kansas State last night!  Thank you!

@HooAlum

 A couple of new games.  We might be adding UVA-Maryland if the handle gets high enough.  If so, huge UVA play with the jumping of the fence and the steam as well as reverse movement.  I am hoping it gets there as it would be a great catchup game after Thursday night.  This may be my last update as I am out the rest of the night.  Other updates will be very short.  (one of the reasons I am highlighting UVA-UMD so a big play does not get dropped in unexpectedly - however it is still just short right now) bet you can self police late changes by watching line movements before gametime.  If there are changes reported it often affects lopsided wagering and where the spread sits.

Florida (2 units): line movement road favorite over 50% handle

Washington St (3 units): lopsided wagering and sharp signal

Oregon (4 units): low ticket favorite, reverse movement & sharp signal outweighs road handle over 50% and over/under squeeze

Pitt (1 units): line movement, road favorite handle over 50% outweighs sharp signal

Tulane-Oklahoma (No Bet): low ticket and handle favorite balanced line movement, sharp signal & over/under squeeze

Purdue (4.5 units): line movement, steam, road favroite majority handle outweighs low ticket favorite and small sharp signal

NEW GAME: Virginia Tech (1 unit): line movement and sharp signal over road favorite over 50% handle

UTSA (5 units): lopsided wagering and heavy sharp signal outweighs lien movement

TCU (4 units): line movement, low ticket and handle favorite outweighs sharp signal (I have never seen a game jump the fence multiple times  - not including bouncing quickly - this game is confusing so may just want to take things with a green of salt)

Kentucky (9 unit): line movement lopsided wagering, handle over 50%, over/under squeeze and sharp signal (this makes me nervous)

CHANGE: Colorado (2 units): low ticket and handle favorite outweighs line movement

NEW GAME: UCLA (1 unit): lopsided wagering and handle over 50% on road favroite outweighs line movement and sharp signals