Opposite Public Plays

Evening Update

7:00

Kansas (+30) - 1 unit - sharp action outweighs low ticket favorite

Mississippi St (-1) - 11 units!!!! - this was a big sharp action late mover thanks to it jumping the fence and the line flows that go with it.  Line movement, low ticket favorite, sharp action and SKS along with a bye week return

Houston (+1.5) -2 1/2 units- It also jumped the fence but sharp action remained with the Cougars and outweighs the line movement 

Auburn (-2.5) - 7 units - Sharp action, SKS, bye week return and line movement

Colorado St (+2) - 1/2 unit - lien mov event and small sharp action outweighs bye week return (lopsided wagering went away)

7:30

Louisville (+6)- 1/2 unit - Line movement and small sharp action outweighs low ticket favorite (lopsided wagering went away thus the pick flip) 

Ohio St (-18.5) - 2 units - line movement and sharp action

North Carolina (+4) - 2.5 units - sharp action, bye week return

Afternoon update

Here were the revised as new tells came in.  I will try to cite them exact for transiency sake

2pm

Iowa St (-7.5) - 1 1/2 unit - stayed same

3pm

Arizona St (-16.5) - 2 units -stayed the same

3:30pm

Syracuse (+6) - 1 unit - stayed the same

CLEMSON (-9.5)  - 2 units - given the craziness and luck involved in this one here are the cites to this change.  The line movement went away as the spread went back up to 9.5 from 9 consensus at books at 2:19pm. That means the tell that was Florida St went to neutral.  Bigger was that with the ticket count so low for Clemson for the spread to go UP, it is classic reverse movement.  The lopsided wagering that favored Clemson also went away at the same line move at 2:19 (not a coincidence) but was a replaced by the more modest tell of a low ticket favorite 39%.  the sharp action for Clemson remained the same and of course the strong over/under squeeze remained as well in favor of Florida St.

Nebraska - 4.5 units - stayed the same

TCU-K State - no bet - stayed the same

Oklahoma - 2 units - stayed the same

Florida - 2.5 units - line movements and reverse movement went away on the consensus line at 2:49pm as (I think everyone knows) the line went to 14.5 from 14.  That wiped out the reverse move to 14 set last night at 7:49pm.  Thus, great late move for Georgia right?  Not so fast. lopsided wagering came in to support he Gators.  thus, as things all evened out it was a 1 unit reduction.  Over/under squeeze, and small sharp action still outweighed bye week return

One other morning note.  Miami-Pitt remained still Pitt 1 unit - so a loser - but the line ticket handle jumped but due to line movement thus it evened out and was still Pitt 1 unit.

Here is late night action.  If the 10:30 games change, I'll update as I think I have one move post available

10:00

Utah (-5 at DraftKings though I might want that 6 everywhere else with better than -125) - 3 units - sharp action and low ticket favorite

10:15

BYU (-1.5 at FanDuel -115 so not to bad for the 1/2 point)- 3 units - strong sharp action

10:30

Stanford (+3) - 1 and 1/2 units - lopsided wagering and small sharp action outweigh bye week return

Fresno St (-2) - 9 units!!!! - line movement, SKS and the some of the most aggressive sharp action I have seen.  This, Mississippi St and Auburn are classic pros versus joes.  I'll be watching this one like a hawk over the next 30 minutes.  Though a lot of books are moving from 2 to 2.5 so may be worth to go now.

two late changes.  DTR announcement immediately led to sharp play out of MGM so the bet is now 4 units Utah, not 3.

Likewise, the ticket handle flipped in BYU-Virginia so you add that tell and that  also brings that game to 4 units, not 3.

@HooAlum

 YOURE THE ?? 

How do you figure Kansas was a sharp play?

Great work on the larger unit plays!

@HooAlum

 If you have been following, you will know that this was a great weekend to measure against the public.  The books did extremely well this weekend and that was reflected in the results producing a solid week.  We also saw a 5-0 SKS record - lower/unranked team favored over ranked team - including Wisconsin for the second week in a row after being a thorn in the side the first part of the season, which brings that usually reliable tell back to respectability.  Historically it is almost 69% so definitely lost a lot early this year.  Also, I anted to apologize for a clerical mistake on my end.  It was small but wanted to call it out before someone else did.  Obviously you could not get Stanford (+3).  Its really was Washington (+3).  The best sign of proof was calling that a losing tell was a bye week return.  We all know Stanford had the bye week, not Washington so seeing that shows the clerical mistake.  It was only a 1.5 unit play, but I understand if people are perturbed. 

That being said, here is where we are:

OVERALL RECORD

105-89 - 54.12% (14-10 weekly)

534 units placed 574.9 won (7.66% profit)

TELL PERFORMANCE55

West Coast team travel east for early start: 75%

Over/Under Squeeze: 68.52%

Steam Movement: 67%

Lopsided Wagering: 60%

Sharp Action analysis: 55.14% (straight W-L 55.56%)

Reverse Movement: 53.33% (Positive reverse movement 55.56%. Negative 52.38%)

Bye Week Return: 50% (only 44% on historic close line tell e.g. the aforementioned Stanford this past weekend was a loss)

Blowout Response: 50%

Ranking Runup Incentive: 50% (i.e. Cincinnati, this will get a lot more active after tonight's CFP reveal)

SKS: 49% (one great week changes everything as I stated earlier)

Line Movement: 47.2% (toward favorite 42.5%, toward underdog 53%)

low favorite ticket count:  42% formula analysis (53.7% straight up without analysis - so probably should have kept it simple stupid though the movement to the favorite - my favorite analytical tool is 60%)

Home noon start: 40% (no longer a tell but still measured)

Here is a Tuesday Update.  Lot of week to go.  For now, it is probably best to ignore the "lopsided wagering."  It is so early those tells have a good chance of going away as more people wager and bring it closer to 50-50 in most cases.  However, as evidenced by its 60% hit rate, if it sticks around, it is a darn good tell.

I bet we have some MACtion tonight so be on the lookout!

Friday

Virginia Tech - 1 unit - low ticket favorite

Stanford - 2 units - lopsided wagering

11:30am

Army-Air Force - no bet

Noon

North Carolina - 9 units - OK, we have our first big play of the week, pros versus joe's happening - Sharp action, lopsided wagering, low ticket favorite, and SKS

Liberty- 1 unit - modest sharp action

Missouri-Georgia - no bet (this will almost certainly swing to Georgia after tonight's playoff reveal)

Nebraska - 2 units - lopsided wagering

12:30

Miami - 3 units - lopsided wagering and low ticket favorite

3:30

Tulsa-Cincinnati - No bet  

TCU - 2 units - lopsided wagering

Notre Dame - 1 unit - lopsided wagering and low ticket favorite outweighs over/under squeeze

West Virginia-Oklahoma St - no bet

Purdue - 4 units - sharp action and lopsided wagering

Texas A&M - 1 unit - SKS and bye week return outweighs sharp action

4:00

Florida St - 2 units - lopsided wagering

7:00

Tennessee-Kentucky - no bet

Alabama 1 unit -- bye week return and low ticket favorite (and likely will add playoff style point runup tonight) outweighs modest sharp action

7:30

Clemson 1 unit - low ticket favorite

Texas - 2 units - lopsided wagering

Washington - 2 units - lopsided wagering

10:15

UTEP - 1 unit - sharp action and over/under squeeze outweighs low ticket favorite and bye week return 

10:30

Southern Cal - 2 units - lopsided wagering

Toledo 3 units. Low ticket favorite and sharp action. Doing from my phone. Will get more detail when back in front of my computer

@HooAlum

Thursday

Georgia State (+13.5) - 3 units - lopsided wagering, sharp action, over/under squeeze outweighs line movement

Friday

Boston College-Virginia Tech - No Bet

Stanford - 1 units - lopsided wagering outweighs sharp action

11:30am

Army-Air Force - no bet

Noon

North Carolina - 7.5 units - Sharp action, low ticket favorite, and SKS

Liberty- 1 unit - modest sharp action

Georgia - 1 unit - line movement and sharp action outweighs lopsided wagering

Ohio St - 1 unit  - line movement

12:30

Miami - 2.5 units - lopsided wagering and low ticket favorite outweighs modest sharp action

3:30

Cincinnati - 1 unit - RunUp Playoff Incentive outweighs lopsided wagering and sharp action

TCU - 2 units - lopsided wagering

Notre Dame - 1 unit - low ticket favorite and sharp action outweighs over/under squeeze

West Virginia-Oklahoma St - no bet

Purdue - 4 units - sharp action and lopsided wagering

Texas A&M - 1 unit - line movement, SKS and bye week return outweighs sharp action

4:00

Florida St - 2.5 units - lopsided wagering and modest sharp action

Arkansas - 1 unit - low ticket favorite

7:00

Tennessee - 4 units  - line movement, SKS, and bye week return

LSU-Alabama - no bet 

7:30

Clemson 2 units - low ticket favorite and sharp action

Texas - 2 units - lopsided wagering

Washington - 2 units - lopsided wagering

10:15

UTEP - 3 units - sharp action and over/under squeeze outweighs bye week return 

10:30

Southern Cal - 2 units - low ticket favorite and sharp action

MACtion summary

Toledo (-9) - 5 units - missed the line movement at 6:49.  Unfortunately that led to a higher LOSING bet when combined with sharp action

Ohio (+7.5) - 1 unit - sharp action outweighed low ticket favorite

Akron (+20.5) - 2 units - sharp action and blowout response

Western Michigan (-9) - 1 unit - sharp action outweighed by line movement

Thus, a 2-2 record with a loss of 3.3 units, thus unfortunately worse than I posted Tuesday

Hoo - are you saying Tennessee -1 for 4 units which is the current line?

@JudgeBaylor

 actually now saying Tennessee 8 units (-1) now that the line has jumped the fence across the board. I'll give more updates tonight.

Speaking of tonight in case I do not update sooner (though that means lines can move and ticket and handle can as well)

Presently

Boston College (+2.5) - it is moving too 2 so if you feel it bet now) - 2 units - line movement and sharp action

Utah (-9) - go now on WynnBet as it will be at least 10 by game time) - 4 unit - steam, line movement and sharp action (lopsided wagering that favored Stanford went away)

@HooAlum

 Hey man - still rocking 4 units on Utah ATS?

@HooAlum

 Hope everyone saw the steam move right before 7pm EST on the BC-Virginia tech game.  That moved that game to 4 units

Late night also has added value as Utah had additional sharp action and an aggressive line movement that was almost classified as a steam move, joining earlier steam move.  It really is in the eye of the beholder as it jumped from 10 at books to 11.5, which I would classify as a steam move; however, 21 minutes later the consensus line pulled BACK and went to 11 thus blunting the steam (but not the movement).  It now sits at 6 units BUT if you want to say steam occurred on your own analysis a little after 9, then you should feel free to get even more aggressive as the book is definitely looking for a big Utes win.  Line is still getable at 10.5 (-110) at FanDuel.  It won't stay like that for long just as the 10 point line is now histor.  It is at 11 or more at every other book and 11.5 at most.

@HooAlum

Good Friday night!  Let's keep momentum tomorrow.  Here is the comprehensive list at present

11:30

Army  - 2.5 units - West Coast travel early start issue and bye week return

Noon

North Carolina - 6.5 units - low ticket favorite, sharp action and SKS

Liberty - 1 unit - sharp action

Georgia - 4 units - line movement and strong sharp action

Nebraska - 1/2 unit - lopsided wagering and reverse movement outweigh overall line movement and sharp play

12:30

Miami - 2 1/2 unit -- lopsided wagering, low ticket favorite outweighs small sharp action

3:30

Cincinnati - 1 1/2 units - runup style points outweighs lopsided wagering and modest sharp action

TCU - 2 1/2 units - lopsided wagering and modest sharp action

Navy-Notre Dame  - no bet

West Virginia - 1/2 unit - lopsided wagering and modest sharp action outweighs line movement

Purdue - 3 1/2 units - lopsided wagering and sharp action

Texas A&M - 2 units - low ticket favorite and SKS outweighs sharp action

4:00

Florida St - 1/2 unit - modest sharp action

Arkansas - 3 units - low ticket favorite and SKS outweighs line movement

7:00

Tennessee - 8 units - line movement, sharp action, SKS and bye week return

Alabama - 5 units - runup style points and bye week return

7:30

Clemson - 1 unit - sharp action

Texas-Iowa st - no bet

Washington - 1/2 unit - modest sharp action

10:15

UTEP-UTSA - no bet

10:30

Arizona St - 2 units - line movement and sharp action

@HooAlum

 Noon Update

Liberty 2 unit - line movement (unfortunately)

Georgia - 4 units - stayed the same

Nebraska - 2 and 1/2 units (sharp action flowed late to them)

Miami - 1/2 unit (lopsided wagering evened out and went away0

North Carolina - 8 1/2 units (line movement and low ticket favorite0

@HooAlum

 Midday comprehensive reprot

3:30

Cincinnati - 2 1/2 units - runup style points and line movement outweighs lopsided wagering and modest sharp action

Baylor - 1 1/2 units - line movement and modest sharp action

Navy-Notre Dame  - no bet

West Virginia - 1 and 1/2 unit - reverse movement and modest sharp action outweighs line movement

Purdue - 2 1/2 units - lopsided wagering and sharp action

Texas A&M - 2 units - low ticket favorite and SKS outweighs sharp action

NEW GAME - Colorado St - 1 unit - sharp action and low ticket favorite outweighs line movement

4:00

Florida St - 1 1/2 unit - sharp action

Arkansas - 1 unit - low ticket favorite and SKS outweighs line movement and sharp action

6:00

NREW GAME - Georgia Southern - 3 units - QB out for Coastal and a lot of sharps jumping on with the line movement

7:00

Tennessee - 6 units - line movement, sharp action, SKS and bye week return

Alabama - 7 units - runup style points, bye week return, line movement and sharp action

7:30

Clemson - 3 units - sharp action

Iowa st - 3 units - sharp action low ticket favorite

Washington - 1 and 1/2 unit - modest sharp action and lopsided wagering

10:15

UTSA - 2 units line movement low ticket favorite and bye week return outweighs sharp action and over/under squeeze

10:30

Arizona St - 2 units - line movement and sharp action

7/7:30 games

7:00

Tennessee (+1) - 9 units - line movement, heavy sharp action, SKS and bye week return

Alabama (-28.5) - 8 units - run-up style points, bye week return, line movement and sharp action

7:30

Clemson (-3) - 3 units - sharp action

Texas-Iowa st -no bet

Oregon (-7) -  1/2 unit - late modest sharp action

@HooAlum

 Late night games

UTSA - 2 units line movement low ticket favorite and bye week return outweighs sharp action and over/under squeeze

Arizona St - 2 unit - sharp action

Hawaii - 1 unit -sharp action outweighs low ticket favorite

Let's see off Hawaii comes in later

@HooAlum

 Here is the weekly summary.  Another solid week but this is simply the mirror of Week 8.  That week had I won the Iowa St pick, it would have been a winning week but alas I lost that heavy game by a field goal and the week itself was a loss.  This week was the same but this time Tennessee held on against Kentucky (boy did they try to blow it, how do you give up 4th and 25!!!!) and the big bet of the week was a winner.  Combined with north Carolina's comeback, this turned into a profitable week.

Here are how the tells performed as that is what you really care about.

OVERALL RECORD

121-102 - 54.26% (16-13 weekly)

621 units placed 676.7 won (8.97% profit)

TELL PERFORMANCE55

West Coast team travel east for early start: 78% (Air Force gave one last one this weekend when I thought it might be dormant for the year)

Steam Movement: 73%

Over/Under Squeeze: 64.41%

Lopsided Wagering: 62.79%

Sharp Action analysis: 55.89% (straight W-L 56.02%)

Blowout Loss Response: 55.55%

SKS: 53% (remember when this was in the 20%s, this is why you have to go with historical averages and not get caught up in a few bad weeks)

Bye Week Return: 52.94%

Reverse Movement: 51.52% (Positive reverse movement 55.56%. Negative 50%)

Line Movement: 47.2% (toward favorite 42.4%, toward underdog 54%)

low favorite ticket count:  43% formula analysis (51.51% straight up without analysis - movement to the favorite - 62.5%)

Home noon start: 42% (no longer an applied tell but still measured - COPVID has this tell all messed up on historical analysis)

Style Points Run-up Incentive: 25% (everyone knows that this weekend was pretty awful for this tell but like SKS, you should not abandon just because of a rough start)

@HooAlum

 Good work!

@HooAlum

No MACtion call tonight as the only game with any play is Ohio-Eastern Michigan and the tells are dead neutral.  Let's see if anything happens tomorrow.

Also, later tonight, I will post the initial plays for the week.  Cal-Southern Cal will no longer be one of them

Here is the first run through of games for the weekend.  Once again many of the plays (lopsided wagering and low ticket favorite may "mature" and no longer be a tell)

Thursday

UNC - 2 units - lopsided wagering

Friday

Cincinnati - 3 units - style points, low ticket favorite outweighs sharp action

Saturday

Noon

Penn St - 2 units - sharp action

Baylor - 3 units - lopsided wagering and sharp action outweighs bye week return

Mississippi St - 3 units - lopsided wagering, sharp action

SMU - 3 units - lopsided wagering, low ticket favorite

3:30

Iowa - 1 unit - low ticket favorite

Georgia Tech - 3 units - lopsided wagering and low ticket favorite

Texas Tech - 3 units - lopsided wagering and bye week return

Tennessee - 1 unit - sharp action

Ohio St - 7 units - style points, lopsided wagering, low ticket favorite

Florida St - 2 units - lopsided wagering

4:00

Maryland - 2 units - lopsided wagering

7:00

Washington-Arizona St - No Bet

Ole miss - lopsided wagering and sharp action

7:30

Wake Forest - 1 unit - lopsided wagering and low ticket favorite outweighs sharp action

Virginia - 1 unit - lopsided wagering and bye week return outweighs sharp action

LSU - 2 units - lopsided wagering

10:30

Washington St - 2 units  - sharp action and bye week return outweighs low ticket favorite