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Opposite Public Plays

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Posted: #1

I try to analyze games through the lens of going opposite the public if one can discern it through betting patterns and historical trends.  It has produced the last 2 years in my own private forums that I host so now wanted to take it to a more public forum.  Predictions change as more data becomes available so this is just a snapshot but decent guidance just the same.  UCLA for example was the play of the week all week.

Week 0 Results:

2-0

No Bet - Illinois-Nebraska: Conflicting low ticket favorite and early home start

6 units  - UCLA (-17.5) - Line move, early home start, West coast travel, sharp indicators (W)

1 unit - UTEP (-9.5) - Sharp indicators and SKS trends outweighed reverse movement 

 

Week 1 Wednesday Evening (will update periodically) 

Thursday

2 units - Minnesota  (+14) - Anti-Public

1 unit - Boise (+6) - Anti Public outweighs line movement

Friday

2 units - Virginia Tech (+5.5) - Negative Reverse Movement

1 unit - Northwestern (-3) - low ticket favorite

Saturday

3 units - Kansas St (-2.5) - West Coast travel and early home start outweighs anti-public & line movement

3 units - West Virginia (-3) - low ticket favorite, anti public

3 units  - Iowa (-3.5) - low ticket favorite, anti public

3 units - Purdue (-7) - low ticket favorite, anti public

2 units - Kent St (+28.5) - anti-public

2 units - UCLA (+3) - line movement w/ low ticket

1 unit - Oklahoma (-31.5) - early home start

1 unit - Penn St (+5.5) - anti public outweighs early home start

1 unit - Texas (-8) - low ticket favorite

1 unit - Clemson (-3) - low ticket favorite

1 unit - Arizona (12.5) - anti public outweighs line movement

1 unit - Nevada (+3) -line movement

1 unit - Utah St (+16.5) - anti-public outweighs line movement

No Bet - Miami-Alabama - (+19.5) - anti-public and steam cancel each other out

No Bet - Houston-Texas tech - (-1) - line movement with low ticket cancel out with anti-public

Sunday

No Bet - Notre Dame-Florida St (7.5) - No tells

Monday

1 unit - Louisville (+10) - anti-public outweighs line movement

 
Prospect
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Posted: #2

Best advice I could ever give to anyone..

Don’t worry about who the public/Sharps are on, bet the games according to what you know and your personal knowledge.

Only time it matters when a line moves is when someone has like insider info or some injury BS

 
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Posted: #3

@snakebite44

 Best advice I ever received is that they did not build those hotels in Vegas by losing money :-). Thus, why I try to follow time tested contrarian trends.

But you do have a very important point.  You can wrap yourself around an axle following "trends" that don't amount to anything at the end of the day.  I can say that I have run my cues through an annual regression analysis.  Some remain, some go away never to be seen again, some I search for more data.  That is not to say it is perfect - there will certainly be losing weeks - but it wins more than they lose.  

That leads to the foundation of what your post is.  Enjoy what you do when you play.  This is not a get rich quick scheme.  3.99% profit like this system did in college basketball feels great, and I dare say is better than most.  However, I made more money off my S&P 500 ETF.

 

 

 
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Posted: #4

ECU, APP ST, Pct of bets fairly evenly split, perhaps a hair more on the Pirates, line is now down to 9. This line was 11.5 at most places and as much as -13 at sum places back in July. Books need App St. Beware

"I'm afraid all we may have done is awakened a sleeping giant."
 
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Posted: #5

If you peruse this forum, most are on the Pirates. Of course big difference between +12 and +9.

"I'm afraid all we may have done is awakened a sleeping giant."
 
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Posted: #6

Week 1 Thursday Afternoon (will update periodically) 

Thursday

1 unit - UCF (-6) - line movement

No Bet - Ohio St @ Minnesota  (13.5) - No active tell

Friday

4 units - Virginia Tech (+5.5) - Negative Reverse Movement & anti-public

1 unit - Northwestern (-3) - low ticket favorite

Saturday

5 units - Nevada (+3) -line movement, negative reverse line movement & anti public

3 units - Kansas St (-2.5) - West Coast travel and early home start outweighs anti-public & line movement

3 units - West Virginia (-3) - low ticket favorite, anti public

3 units  - Iowa (-3.5) - low ticket favorite, anti public

3 units - Purdue (-7) - low ticket favorite, anti public

2 units - Oklahoma (-31.5) - line movement and early home start

2 units - Kent St (+28.5) - anti-public

1 unit - Penn St (+5.5) - anti public outweighs early home start

1 unit - Iowa (-3.5) - low ticket favorite

1 unit - Texas (-8) - low ticket favorite

1 unit - Clemson (-3) - low ticket favorite

1 unit - UCLA (+3) - line movement

1 unit - Utah St (+16.5) - anti-public outweighs line movement

No Bet - Miami-Alabama - (19.5) - anti-public and steam cancel each other out

No Bet - Houston-Texas tech - (1) - line movement with low ticket cancel out with anti-public

No Bet - BYU @ Arizona (12.5) - line movement cancels out over/under squeeze

Sunday

No Bet - Notre Dame-Florida St (7.5) - No active tell

Monday

1 unit - Louisville (+10) - anti-public outweighs line movement

 
 
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Posted: #7

I checked out Kent St/TX@A@M and looks like KSU has some offensive fire power also TAMU has to reload at the QB position so +28 for meclover

 
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Posted: #8

The latest on tonight's games

 

1 unit - UCF (-6.5) - lost that half a point if you waited on more movement

No Bet - Ohio St @ Minnesota (14) - No tells at present.  If change before gamete I'll try to post but looking like a pass.

 
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Posted: #9

Fairly easy pick anyhow but fading the huge line movement in the ECU/APP ST was just icing on the cake. Did you mention that game, don't believe I saw anything about that game. 2.5 to 4 point swing depending on when you bet of course.

"I'm afraid all we may have done is awakened a sleeping giant."
 
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Posted: #10

@HooAlum

Season

Record 2-1

Profit 5.3 units

 

Week 1 Friday Afternoon (will update periodically) 

Thursday

Loss - 1 unit - UCF (-6) - line movement (stupid 2 point conversion miss)

No Bet - Ohio St @ Minnesota  (13.5) - No active tell

 

Friday

1 unit - Northwestern (-3) - low ticket favorite

No Bet - UNC @ VPI (6) - No tells as prior reported reverse line movement completely reversed back upon itself (a reason why you wait - of course UCF-Boise shows why you don't)

 

Saturday

5 units

Nevada (+3) -line movement, negative reverse line movement & anti public

3 units

Kansas St (-3.5) - West Coast travel, early home start and line movement outweighs anti-public

Purdue (-7) - low ticket favorite, anti public

2 units

Oklahoma (-31.5) - line movement and early home start

Kent St (+29) - anti-public

Arizona (+12.5) - anti public and Over/.Under squeeze (the inaugural use of my newest data point just off a year of provisional status) outweighs line movement

1 unit

Wisconsin (-5.5) - anti public outweighs early home start

Iowa (-3.5) - low ticket favorite

Texas (-9) - low ticket favorite

Clemson (-3) - low ticket favorite

UCLA (+3) - line movement

Utah St (+17) - anti-public outweighs line movement

No Bet - 

West Virginia @ Maryland (2.5) - low ticket w/ underdog line movement cancels anti public

Miami-Alabama - (19.5) - anti-public and steam cancel each other out

Houston-Texas tech - (1) - line movement with low ticket cancel out with anti-public

 

Sunday

No Bet - Notre Dame-Florida St (7.5) - No active tell

 

Monday

7 units - Louisville (+10) - Steam movement and negative reverse movement

 
 
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Posted: #11

@mrusso

 didn't mention ECU-App St because total handle was low.  The numbers usually stay away from G5 games unless there are specific call outs from sharps or increased handle.  UTEP-New Mexico St last week was a great example of such an instance where a game comes out of the blue fast and heavy - and I wish I had hit UTEP more than 1 unit in retrospect.  Nevertheless, given the lack of "public" attention in the runup, the numbers weighted it more lightly than say Ohio St-Minnesota would have been with a similar number pattern.

Looking at ECU-App St by the numbers, the numbers would have actually suggested a very modest 1 unit bet on ECU due precisely to that line movement you mention; however, given the handle was so low the movement in question, which took place as a drip drip over time, was presumably caused by a lower number of Appie st bettors than originally anticipated by the books from the initial line, and thus not an indicator of the books chasing the public or a sharp.  They were just balancing their books out.  Also a reason why line movement is a minor tell and not a primary tell (it is only 53% accurate among P5-high TV G5 games the last 2 years - thus even more unpredictable outside that universe; however 53% does make money - just very slowly)

 
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Posted: #12

Nice work, so far.  Solid angle.   I am with you on Texas ATS and OU ATS.  I am against you on Mississippi ATS...Keep it up!  peace_5

LonghornHoosier
 
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Posted: #13

@HooAlum

 "didn't mention ECU-App St because total handle was low."

So, how much was the total handle?

"I'm afraid all we may have done is awakened a sleeping giant."
 
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Posted: #14

Just to confirm, when you say "low ticket favorite", what are you telling us?  Appreciate you posting your picks an analysis!  Good luck this year!

 
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Posted: #15

[Quote: Originally Posted by HooAlum]@HooAlum Season Record 2-1 Profit 5.3 units   Week 1 Friday Afternoon (will update periodically)  Thursday Loss - 1 unit - UCF (-6) - line movement (stupid 2 point conversion miss) 

The problem was not the 2 point conversion miss, the problem was the late interception UCF threw that allowed Boise to score a touchdown and make the score 31 - 30. If not for that, you would have pushed at 24-30 or would have won 37-24 because they would not have needed to attempt the 2 point conversion to make it a 7 point lead at 37 - 30 in case Boise scored a late touchdown to force overtime. My humble opinion, good luck to you

 
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Posted: #16

@HooAlum

 Here is a summary of the two big games tonight.  I will be on there road this afternoon so will not be able to have it out before UNC-Va tech.  If I go back and line changes tyhat game in particular for record keeping purposes all go with it (after all I am following numbers not gut)

Friday

1 unit - Northwestern (-3) - low ticket favorite

No Bet - UNC @ VPI (6) - No tells at present (but an anti-public Va tech play is right on the cusp so if you really want to bet this game, the Hokies would be likely where it heads if anywhere)

 

 
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Posted: #17

Quote Originally Posted by BetThenSweat:

Quote Originally Posted by HooAlum:

@HooAlum Season Record 2-1 Profit 5.3 units   Week 1 Friday Afternoon (will update periodically)  Thursday Loss - 1 unit - UCF (-6) - line movement (stupid 2 point conversion miss)  The problem was not the 2 point conversion miss, the problem was the late interception UCF threw that allowed Boise to score a touchdown and make the score 31 - 30. If not for that, you would have pushed at 24-30 or would have won 37-24 because they would not have needed to attempt the 2 point conversion to make it a 7 point lead at 37 - 30 in case Boise scored a late touchdown to force overtime. My humble opinion, good luck to you

Sorry at the end of my statement I misquoted the score the 2 point conversion would have made it 38 -31, but if the late interception did not happen, they would not have needed the 2 point conversion and the score would have been 37 - 24. 

 
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Posted: #18

and as soon as I hit send two sharp reports for tonight come in on the underdogs and had no idea Covers.com blocked over 5 posts in a 24 hour period.  Sorry guys.  good news for me and my direct recipients they knew to go Va Tech relatively big (5 units) the system blocked me on the input.  However, there is also sharp action on Michigan St so getting that pick in before kickoff. I'll be more careful with my posts and update next tomorrow morning.  

Friday

5 units - VPI (+6) - strong sharp play and anti public

2 units - Michigan St (+3.5) - sharp play 

 

Saturday

5 units

Nevada (+3) -line movement, negative reverse line movement & anti public

3 units

Kansas St (-3.5) - West Coast travel, early home start and line movement outweighs anti-public

Purdue (-7) - low ticket favorite, anti public

2 units

Maryland (+2.5) - low ticket w/ underdog line movement

Alabama - (-19.5) - steam move

Kent St (+29) - anti-public

Arizona (+12.5) - anti public and Over/.Under squeeze (the inaugural use of my newest data point just off a year of provisional status) outweighs line movement

1 unit

Wisconsin (-5.5) - early home start

Texas (-9) - low ticket favorite

Clemson (-3) - low ticket favorite

UCLA (+3) - line movement

Utah St (+17) - anti-public outweighs line movement

No Bet - 

Tulane @ Oklahoma (31.5) - line movement and early home start cancels out anti-public

Indiana @ Iowa (3.5) - low ticket favorite candles out sharp play

Houston-Texas tech - (1) - line movement with low ticket cancel out with anti-public

 

Sunday

2 units - Florida St (+7.5) - Sharp play

 

Monday

2 units - Louisville (+10) - negative reverse movement

 
 
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Posted: #19

Getting noon games before they start.  Western Michigan-Michigan on the board now in a big way.

 

Noon Games

5 units

Western Michigan (+16) - Reverse movement, line movement, sharp plays

3 units

Kansas St (-3.5) - West Coast travel, early home start and line movement outweighs anti-public

1 unit

Wisconsin (-5.5) - early home start

No Bet - 

Tulane @ Oklahoma (31.5) - line movement and early home start cancels out anti-public

 

3:30 will be updated again

3 units Bama

1 unit unit Indiana and Maryland (Maryland likely to increase in value)

 

 

 
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Posted: #20

@HooAlum

Have guests for Labor Day so slipping into backroom to post/.  Will give more detail later

 

 3:30

3 units  

Bama (-19.5)

2 units

Maryland (+2.5)

Indiana (+3.5)

 

 

 

 
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Posted: #21

@HooAlum

 Louisiana Lafayette (+9) - Sharp action (+ love William Hill moving up to 9 and grabbing it)

 
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Posted: #22

@HooAlum

 UCLA at 8:30pm.  We have a similar style.

 
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Posted: #23

@No_Gifts

 7pm

2 units 

Purdue (-7) - low ticket favorite & sharp

Houston (-2.5) - line movement and sharp

7:30

FAU (+23.5) - Sharp and over under squeeze

No bet Georgia v Clemson (3) - no tells

8:00/8:30

4 units

UCLA (+2.5) - line movement and sharps

3 units

South Alabama (-2) - line movement & sharp

2 units

Kent St (+29.5) - anti-public

 

Eraly for late games are 

Wazzu 3 unit

BYU 1 unit

Nevada 1 unit

 

 

 

 

 
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Posted: #24

@HooAlum

 Late night.  (sort of mundane, sorry for those wanting to play catchup)

1 unit 

Arizona (+13.5) - Over under squeeze and anti public outweighs line movement and small sharp play

Nevada (+2.5) - negative reverse movement outweighs low ticket favorite

Wazzu (-18) - line movement

 

 

 
 
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Posted: #25

@HooAlum

1 unit - Florida State (+7) - line movement.

 

Will give a summary of the weekend once complete.  

 

Solid week so far at 11-8, 26.66% return (57 units on 45 bet).  Not all weeks will be this rosy but I'd rather have a good one than a bad one.

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