Opposite Public Plays

@HooAlum

Hi @hooalum , thank you for posting!

Can you please tell me what SKS stands for and Over/Under Squeeze?

Ty ! GL 

@HooAlum

 remarkable pull back by the numbers on so many of the games.

Noon

Oklahoma St - 1/2 unit - line movement outweighs reduced sharp action

NIU-Kent St - no bet

3:00

USU-SDSU - no bet

3:30

Appalachian St - 1 1/2 units - SKS outweighs line movement and sharp

4:00

Houston-Cincinnati - no bet

Georgia - 1 unit - modest sharp action

8:00

Pitt - 2 units - sharp action

Iowa - 2 units - over/under squeeze

11:00

Cal - 2 units - line movement and low ticket favorite outweighs sharp

SEASON SUMMARY

Well, except for Army-Navy (no tells have shown early on) the regular season is over.  Tye regular season is always better than the unpredictable bowl season that reigns havoc down on most traditional analysis.  I'll do my best but last year I came out only with a 1 unit profit (and that was almost solely due to Oklahoma-Florida where it went really big). 

In the off-season I will refine and try to make it even better but here are the tells as it were and their performance.

OVERALL RECORD

166-142 (53.9%) 3-5 last week

Units Placed 878.5

Units won 938.3

6.81% profit

West coast early start - 82%!!!  This is always a great tell and was great again.  Unfourntely only a handful of games fir this profile every year.

Steam: 66.67% (really strong performance)

Lopsided Wagering: 64.58% This is the usual "sharp" special and it had its best year ever

Sharp Action Analysis 55.97% (55.88% deep analysis - the deep analysis means more money is spent so the fact it kept it percentage is a good thing - very pleased as it led to some gains from years past in the 2020 analysis)

Reverse movement: 53.49% (positive reverse 62.5%; negative reverse 48.15% - lopsided had its best year but reverse movement had easily its worst as it usually is around 60%; though positive -movement ot the favorite - continued to be more than underdog movement)

Over/Under Squeeze: 54% (deep analysis 53.42% - this really talked off at the end but is a good tell and will remain - for those wondering it is when a double digit underdog is present with a low betting total - the points have to come from somewhere)

Low Ticket Favorite: 51% analysis (54.95% straight up - this old reliable climbed back but it is clear I got too cute by half in some respects - look at line movement to the favorite and straight up.  Stop trying to make something out of nothing on the underdog)

Bye Week Return: 50.85% (jury is still out as it could be a COBID phenomemon)

Line Movement: 48.6% (45.8% toward favorite; 52% toward underog - this tell will likely be pulled back as an augmentation in future years.  It really is always close to 50-50 so this year is not unusual, but it can reveal things about lopsided wagering and low ticket favorite)

Noon Home Start - 48% - was removed as a tell this year for calculation pruproses.  Will not return

Blowout Response - 47% (60% in close lines - that is the way to do this tell going forward)

SKS - 46% (the tell that rates under ranked favorites usually is golden and hits about 2/3.  This year it was spotty at best - need to relook at this one)

@HooAlum

 Thanks for the help this season!

Here is the tells for the final regular season game. I'll update sometime tomorrow as well as I suspect that the betting will ramp up and sharp action tells will become even more prevalent.  Sort of surprised by the lack of them to date.

Navy 1 1/2 unit - line movement and the tiniest of sharp action.

@HooAlum

Navy got a nice win for me at the end of the year (I personally thought Army would be the pock but that is why you follow numbers not your head)

Now, it is Bowl Season.  I always feel unsure about these as my record compared to the regular season is spotty at best but let's see if I can improve after I cleared only about 1 unit in bowl games last year.  Bowls are just so much more of a crap shoot given who might sit out what team is motivated etc , . . My piece of advice is that if you know team A is going to be motivated, go with them.  If you think Team B is not going to take it seriously, avoid them.  I just don't have that inside intel or I would certainly incorporate it into my numbers.

Lot of games have no tells since the handle is just simply low right now (thus a lot of "no bets" right now).  Only the New Years 6 games have any sharp action worth noting as of today.

Here is the LONG rundown, and I will occasionally update this exhaustive list but really report the day of the games when bettors and books are focused on these games.

12/17

Middle Tennessee St - 1 unit - over/under squeeze, high spread outweighs low ticket favorite

Northern Illinois-Coastal Carolina - No Bet

12/18

Appalachian St - 2 1/2 units - Early time zone travel start and low ticket favorite

UTEP - 2 units - over/under squeeze and high spread

UAB-BYU - No Bet

Liberty  - 1 unit - low ticket favorite

Utah St-Oregon St - no bet

Marshall-Louisiana Lafayette - no bet

12/20

Old Dominion-Tulsa - no bet

12/21

Wyoming - 1 unit - low ticket favorite

UTSA - 1 unit - low ticket favorite 

12/22

Missouri - 2 units - lopsided wagering (I really think this is going to change towards Army, it has that feel)

12/23

UCF-Florida - No Bet

North Texas-Miami(Oh) - No Bet

12/24

Hawaii - 2 units - lopsided wagering

12/25

Georgia St - 3 units - lopsided wagering and low ticket favorite

12/27

Western Michigan - 3 units - early start with travel

East Carolina-Boston College - No Bet

12/28

Auburn - 2 units - SKS outweighs lopsided wagering

Air Force-Louisville - No Bet

Texas Tech-Mississippi St - No bet

UCLA- North Carolina State - No Bet

West Virginia - lopsided wagering

12/29

Virginia - 1 and 1/2 units - early start with travel

Virginia Tech-Maryland - No Bet

Clemson-Iowa St - 2 units - SKS

Oregon-Oklahoma - No Bet

12/30

South Carolina-North Carolina - No Bet

Purdue-Tennessee - No Bet

Michigan St - 1 unit - sharp action outweighs line movement.

Wisconsin - 1 unit - low ticket favorite

12/31

Texas A&M - 5 1/2 units - low ticket favorite, SKS, outweighs early start with travel

Miami - 4 units - low ticket favorite and early start with travel

Georgia - 6 units - low ticket favorite and SKS outweighs sharp action

Central Michigan-Boise St - No Bet

Cincinnati - 3 units - lopsided wagering and high spread

1/1

Penn St - 4 units - SKS

Oklahoma St - 3 units - lopsided wagering and sharp action outweighs 

Kentucky - 4 units - SKS

Utah - 1 unit - sharp action

Ole Miss - 2 units - heavy sharp action outweighs low ticket favorite

1/4

LSU-K State - No Bet

@HooAlum

 Just reading your post.  I have not bend around much this year.  

very interesting method.  BOL 

I have read but on the ‘over under squeeze” what side do you play ?

ty

Middle Tennessee covers BUT it moved to "no bet" (wins take credit when it did not happen and the "no bet" is why I did not post this morning.

Coastal Carolina has taken off though with all the tells.  I heard a rumor of COVID issues on CC but I am just going with the numbers

Coastal Carolina (-12) - 4 units - line movement, low ticket favorite and sharp play

@Area51

 over-under squeeze occurs when a team is a double digit underdog but the total is under 54 (The average total for cab over the last 5 years).  Theroy is there are only so many points to go around so if the underdog scores a minimal amount, they will either cover or blow the total.  You can play either (both the over and the dog is actually over the a good bet one time  - e.g. MTSU and the over would have been a double winner this afternoon)

@HooAlum

 Here is today's bowl game rundown.  I'll try to update during the game if numbers change. A lot of contrarian plays today with the handle and tickets really surprisingly out of whack.  I wonder if closer to gametime, they settle down a little bit.

Western Kentucky (+1) - 1 unit - line movement, steam outweighs early travel time zone start and tiny sharp action

South Carolina St (+11.5) - 2 units - sharp action

UTEP - 5 units - over/under Squeeze; double digit bowl underdog, line movement and sharp action

UAB - 4 1/2 units - really aggressive sharp action

Liberty - 3 1/2 units - line movement, low ticket favorite and small sharp action

Oregon St - 1 1/2 units - sharp action outweighs line movement

Marshall - 4 units - line movement and sharp action

@HooAlum

Here is a midday update.  Evening games have not changed but the afternoon ones have 1 big change

UTEP (+13) - 4 units - over/under Squeeze; double digit bowl underdog, and sharp action (line movement went away)

UAB 9+6.5) - 7 1/2 units - HUGE move here. Aggressive sharp action is joined by line movement and reverse movement.  Something seems to be going on here.  Lock in the 6.5 at FanDuel.  Everyone else has fallen to 6.

@HooAlum

 Evening Update after a nice profitable 5-0 day so far, including a really big number on UAB.

Liberty did pull back 1 unit so it will not be a 3 and a 1/2 point profit but 2 and 1/2 thanks to some conflicting action on the original sharp action.  Late moves like that now have cost 3 units of bet so I don't want to hear it if they move the right way in the future.

Oregon St remained at 1 and a 1/2 with the same tells (and may be the first loser of the day)

Marshall remains the call (+4) but the number of units slightly pulls back to 3 units from 4 thanks to a reduction in the surety of the sharp action.

@HooAlum

 Great info. Thans for the write up's.

@1217

ODU did have some late line movement toward them but was not enough to overcome the sharp action on Tulsa so it did go from "no bet" to Tulsa (-7.5) for 1 unit.  The line movement started a few days ago with the initial sharp call so I thought I had updated my list but had not.  Not a big deal given only a 4 point difference in a game with only 1 unit but wanted to post for transparency sake.

@HooAlum

 Here is the latest comprehensive update.  Bowl season to date has been solid at 5-3 (good lead in teh 4th quarter for 6-3) with the big plays coming home for a 27% profit (thanks mainly to UAB covering).  It likely will pullback to hopefully the teens (and not single digits or loss) but there is a lot of action left.  Here is the view at this time.  Many of the games (especially those far out in time) are likely to change.

12/21

Wyoming - 1 unit - line movement and low ticket favorite outweighs sharp action

San Diego St - 3 and 1/2 units - sharp action and line movement (lot of tells were wiped out when it jumped the fence)

12/22

Army - 2 units - sharp action

12/23

UCF-Florida - No Bet

North Texas - 4 units - lopsided wagering and sharp action

12/24

Memphis - 4 units - steam, sharp action and line movement outweigh lopsided wagering

12/25

Georgia St - 5 units - lopsided wagering, low ticket favorite and sharp action

12/27

Western Michigan - 3 units - early start with travel

East Carolina-Boston College - No Bet

12/28

Auburn - 1 unit - SKS outweighs lopsided wagering and line movement

Air Force - 1 unit - reverse movement and sharp action outweighs line movement

Mississippi St - 1 unit - low ticket favorite

North Carolina State - 5 units - reverse movement, low ticket favorite, and line movement

West Virginia-Minnesota - No bet

12/29

Virginia - 2 and 1/2 units - low ticket favorite and early start with travel

Maryland - 5 units - steam, line movement

Clemson - 2 units - SKS and low ticket favorite outweighs reverse movement

Oregon-Oklahoma - No Bet

12/30

South Carolina-North Carolina - No Bet

Tennessee - 6 units - line movement, low ticket favorite, reverse movement, lopsided wagering

Michigan St - 2 units - sharp action

Arizona St - 1 unit - line movement outweighs low ticket favorite

12/31

Wake Forest - 1/2 unit - line movement, steam early start with travel outweighs low ticket favorite, SKS

Miami - 4 units - low ticket favorite and early start with travel

Georgia - 6 units - low ticket favorite and SKS outweighs sharp action

Central Michigan-Boise St - No Bet

Cincinnati - 3 units - lopsided wagering and high spread

1/1

Penn St - 2 units - SKS outweighs lopsided wagering

Oklahoma St - 3 units - lopsided wagering and sharp action outweighs 

Kentucky - 4 units - SKS

Utah - 1 unit - sharp action

Ole Miss - 3 units - heavy sharp action

1/4

LSU-K State - No Bet

GOOD STUFF BRO 

@HooAlum

 Here is how today looks right now.  Solid plays

Wyoming (-3) - 4 units - line movement, low ticket count reverse movement outweighs sharp action

San Diego St - 4 1/2 units - line movement, steam, sharp action

Good luck today. Love this thread and breakdown 

@HooAlum

 guys following this probably know, the 3.5 consensus has pulled back top 3 erasing the line movement but on top of that low ticket favorite was also wiped out.  That means Wyoming is only a 1 unit favorite and it is based on weak reverse movement (I have a 24 hour rule and it held up for exactly 24 hours so keeping it).

Bottom line, beware

@HooAlum

 Any updates for today’s bowl game?

thank you!

@despo-parlay

 can speak for this system but looking at the public money sure looks like it flipped 

@Skobuffs

 cant sorry cant type ever

@HooAlum

One game tonight  

Army (-6.5 - at MGM) - 2 units - line movement and steam outweighs sharp action

(and San Diego St 4 and a half units did not change - thank good ness as I would love to have the original Wyoming 4 units back)

@HooAlum

 Here is another comprehensive update after Wake-TAMU off the board. Will try to post before games this afternoon and evening.

12/23

Florida - 2 units - line movement, low ticket favorite an d sharp action outweigh P5 vs G5 disappointment "trap"

North Texas - 2 units - sharp action

12/24

Memphis - 5 units - steam, sharp action and line movement

12/25

Georgia St - 8 units - lopsided wagering, low ticket favorite, sharp action, reverse movement

12/27

Western Michigan - 3 units - early start with travel

East Carolina - 1 unit - line movement

12/28

Auburn - 1 unit - SKS outweighs reverse and line movement

Air Force - 3 units - line movement , reverse movement and sharp action

Mississippi St - 5 units - line movement, low ticket favorite, reverse movement

North Carolina State - 5 units - reverse movement, low ticket favorite, and line movement

Minnesota - 1 unit - line movement

12/29

Virginia - 2 and 1/2 units - low ticket favorite and early start with travel

Maryland - 7 units - steam, line movement, low ticket favorite

Clemson - 7 units - SKS line movement, low ticket favorite, reverse movement

Oregon-Oklahoma - No Bet

12/30

South Carolina-North Carolina - No Bet

Tennessee - 6 units - line movement, low ticket favorite, reverse movement, lopsided wagering

Pitt-Michigan St - No Bet

Arizona St - 1 unit - line movement outweighs low ticket favorite

12/31

Miami - 2 units - early start with travel

Georgia - 4 units - low ticket favorite and SKS outweighs line movement and sharp action

Central Michigan-Boise St - No Bet

Cincinnati - 1 unit - lopsided wagering and high spread outweighs sharp action

1/1

Arkansas - 1 unit - SKS outweighs line movement and reverse movement

Oklahoma St - 7 units - lopsided wagering and sharp action and reverse movement

Kentucky - 5 units - SKS and low ticket favorite

Utah - 1 unit - sharp action

Ole Miss - 4 units - heavy sharp action and line movement 

1/4

K State - 1 unit - line movement