Opposite Public Plays

Morning Update.  Four games have dramatically jumped out with Ohio St, Clemson, Utah and Kansas St all really showing themselves

Noon

Ohio St (-19)  - 11 1/2 units - sharp action, style points, steam, low ticket favorite

Texas-West Virginia - No Bet

Boston College-Florida State - No Bet

Penn State (- 14)- 3 1/2 units - low ticket favorite line movement and sharp action

Clemson (-3.5) - 9 units - low ticket favorite, sharp action, SKS

Iowa St (+4) - 4 units - line movement and sharp action 

2:30

Notre Dame - 1/2 unit - line movement and small sharp action outweighs lopsided wagering

3:00

Colorado - 1/2 unit - small sharp action

3:30

Virginia - 3 units - sharp action

SMU - 2 1/2 units - line movement and sharp action

Maryland - 1 unit  - lopsided wagering and sharp action outweighs line movement

Nebraska-Wisconsin - No Bet 

Alabama - 4 units - style points

4:00

Southern Cal - 1 unit - lopsided wagering and bye week return outweighs sharp action

Kansas - 1/2 unit - line movement outweighs low ticket favorite and small sharp action

5:30

Kansas State - 10 1/2 units - line movement, low ticket favorite, heavy sharp action, SKS

7:00

Cal - 2 units - sharp action and bye week return

Auburn - 1/2 unit - small sharp action

7:30

Miami - 1 unit - low ticket favorite

Tennessee - 1/2 unit - low ticket favorite outweighs small sharp action (the ticket could flip)

Utah - 10 units - reverse movement, low ticket favorite, heavy sharp action, SKS

8:00

Texas Tech - 2 1/2 units - reverse movement and small sharp action

10:30

Arizona St - 2 1/2 units - lopsided wagering, low ticket favorite outweighs small sharp action

@HooAlum

 Getting in games before the afternoon next round starts.  As always, I will report on large movement for 330 and 4 after this and try to cite exact sources for any changes.  One such cite.  There was a question why Houston-Memphis moved 7 units overnight.  Great question (and one that I wish had not happened given it went from a 3 unit win to a 4 unit loss - I'd love to have won 2.7 units and not lost 4 units) and over the week the spread had dropped from 9.5 down to 8.5 thus a Houston tell of line movement.  Yesterday morning the spread jumped immediately back to 9.5 thus erasing the Houston tell.  Also strong sharp betting action was reported on Memphis thus bumping up the Memphis side more.  All of this was in the 24 hours before gametime with the sharp action was acute in the mid to late afternoon.  Thus, why you saw such a swing.

2:30

Notre Dame (-17.5) - 1 and 1/2 unit - line movement and small sharp action

3:00

Washington (-6.5) - 1/2 unit - low ticket favorite popped up (but not by much) outweighs small sharp action - I personally like the buffs here as I think the sharp action is more than what is being reported by betting trends)

3:30

Virginia (+15.5) - 2 units - sharp action outweighs line movement

SMU (+10) - 2 1/2 units - no change from the morning

Maryland (+16) - 1 unit  -no change from the morning 

Nebraska-Wisconsin - No Bet 

Alabama (-20.5) - 4 units - no change from the morning

4:00

Southern Cal (+3.5) - 1 unit - no change from the morning

Kansas (+21.5) - 1/2 unit - no change from this morning (I hate this trend call as Kansas always tricks the system it seems except when it one a big one by a half point against West Virginia last year)

5:30

Kansas State (-1.5) - 10 1/2 units -no change from this morning (but I could see this pull back two units as the low ticket qualifies by a mere 1% at present after clearing it by 9% earlier this morning)

7:00

Cal - 2 units - no change from the morning

Auburn - 1 1/2 unit - small sharp action and low ticket favorite

7:30

Miami - 1 unit - no change

South Alabama - 1/2 unit - small sharp action

Utah - 10 units - no change from the morning

8:00

Texas Tech - 2 1/2 units - no change from this morning

10:30

Arizona St -1/2 units - low ticket favorite outweighs small sharp action

As a note, there was a late betting action on Texas West Virginia for 1 unit worth as a note out of MGM at 11:53pm as reported by our old covers friend Patrick Everson).  

Thanks for the clarification on Memphis/Houston.  Appreciate u sharing these angles with us. 

Evening update

7:00

Cal (-1.5) - 2 units - no change from the morning

Auburn (-7) - 1 1/2 unit -no change from the afternoon

7:30

Miami (-7) - 1 unit - no change from this morning

Tennessee (-28)  - 1/2 unit - new line movement outweighs small sharp action

Utah (-3) - 10 units - no change from the morning

8:00

Texas Tech (+10.5) - 2 1/2 units - no change from this morning

10:30

Arizona St (-2.5) -1/2 units - no change from this afternoon 

@HooAlum

 Late add - Utah St (-5.5) - 2 units - sharp action out of MGM very late. 

Arizona St (-2.5) - 1/2 unit - stayed the same from the afternoon.

Also, a few housekeeping elements.  

I did not catch that Rutgers has a over/under squeeze so the win by Penn St drops by 2 units from 3 1/2  to 1 1/2 for the Lions win.

That is balanced out by the Mounataineers mentioned earlier and the move from 14.5 to 15.5/16 late in Michigan Maryland that brought that game to no bet as it was a tell for Michigan with the line movement surge.  Thus, a net loss of .2 units in the adjustments column.  

Weekly Update

OVERALL RECORD

148-125 (54.21%) (weekly 12-12)

761 units wagered 829.3 won (8.98% profit)

TELL PERFORMANCE

West Coast Travel: 78% (I thought it was dormant for the year with OOC play ending, but it will actually have a play this week with Boise-San Diego St)

Steam: 69%

Lopsided Wagering: 64.58%

Over/Under Squeeze: 59.09% (60% straight up)

Sharp Action Analysis: 55.33% (55.51% straight up)

SKS: 55% (remember when this was in the 30s and subject to mockery - it has been a big driver of the recent productive big plays)

Reverse Movement: 52.63% (positive reverse movement 66.67%, negative reverse movement 46.15%) 

Bye Week Return: 50.85% 

Low Ticket Favorite: 48% (straight up 54.32% - for 2022 I will be using this as an adjustment in this tell, I tried to get cute based on COVID year results - a mistake)

Line Movement 47.4% (46.1% to the favorite; 49% toward underdog)

Noon Home: 45% (it will be removed as a tell next year)

Blowout Response: 45% (Duke was a stinker on this one last week)

Style Points: 44%

MACtion has been quiet all year long and ends with a doozy!  a whopping 10 units on western Michigan -7 - I missed out everywhere at 6.5, waited too long) as it has steam, reverse movement, regular line movement going into a low ticket favorite.  This is a huge tell and sorry I am giving it so late.  I'll come with the rest of the field for the week later this evening.  This is a crazy travel week with the Thanksgiving so will be bad about updates this week.  One early shout out is Penn St.  If they remain the favorite by a point or so, they are really going to be a big play.

Thursday

Mississippi State - 5 units - line movement, low ticket favorite, SKS

Friday

Noon

Boise St - 3 units - SKS outweighs west coast early start

Kansas St-Texas - no bet

1:30

Nebraska - 2 units -lopsided wagering

3:30

Cincinnati - 1 unit - sharp action

4:30

TCU-Iowa St - no bet

7:00

North Carolina State - 1 unit - low ticket favorite

8:00

Washington - 2 units - lopsided wagering

Saturday

Noon

Ohio St - 1 unit - line movement and sharp action outweighs lopsided wagering

Georgia Tech - 3 units - lopsided wagering and sharp action

Florida - 1 unit - low ticket favorite

3:30

Oregon-Oregon St - No bet

Alabama - 2 units - style points outweighs sharp action

Penn State - 9 units - line movement, sharp action, SKS

3:45

Virginia - 1 unit - line movement

4:00

Wisconsin - 1 unit - line movement

7:00

LSU - 2 units - lopsided wagering

7:30

Pittsburgh - 1 unit - low ticket favorite

Oklahoma St - 1 unit - line movement

South Carolina - 1 unit over/under squeeze outweighs low ticket favorite

8:00

Notre Dame - 1 unit - sharp action, style points outweigh lopsided wagering and over/under squeeze

10:30

Southern Cal - 3 units - lopsided wagering and blowout response

Wednesday night update (as I mentioned these may new more periodic this weekend)

Thursday

Mississippi State - 7 units - line movement, reverse movement, low ticket favorite, SKS

Friday

Noon

Boise St - 3 units - SKS outweighs west coast early start

Kansas St-Texas - no bet

1:30

Nebraska - 9 1/2 units units - (well that escalated quickly) line movement with a low ticket favorite reverse movement SKS and mild sharp

3:30

Cincinnati - 1/2 unit - minor sharp action

4:30

Iowa St - 1/2 unit - minor sharp action

7:00

North Carolina State - 3 1/2 units - line movement with a low ticket favorite and minor sharp action

8:00

Washington - 2 units - lopsided wagering

Saturday

Noon

Ohio St - 1 unit - line movement and sharp action outweighs lopsided wagering

Rutgers - 1 unit - sharp action

Georgia Tech - 3 units - lopsided wagering and sharp action

Texas Tech-Baylor - No Bet

Florida - 1/2 unit - low ticket favorite outweighs small sharp action

12:30

Miami - 1/2 unit - minor sharp action

3:30

Oregon-Oregon St - No bet

Alabama - 3 units - Low3 ticket favorite and style points outweighs sharp action

Penn State - 9 units - line movement, sharp action, SKS

3:45

Virginia-Virginia tech - no bet

4:00

Wisconsin - 1/2 unit - line movement outweighs small sharp action

Arizona St - 1/2 unit - low ticket favorite outweighs small sharp action

SMU - 1/2 unit - minor sharp action

7:00

LSU - 1/2 units - small sharp action

7:30

Syracuse-Pittsburgh - No bet

Louisville - 1/2 unit - small sharp action

Oklahoma St - 1 unit - line movement

South Carolina - 1 unit over/under squeeze outweighs low ticket favorite

8:00

Notre Dame - 4 units - sharp action, style points, low ticket favorite outweigh lopsided wagering and over/under squeeze

10:30

Southern Cal - 2 1/2 units - lopsided wagering and blowout response outweighs small sharp action

Mississippi St INCREASED its already hefty play to 11 units thanks to some big sharp action joining the line and reverse movement, low ticket favorite and SKS.  Shop the line. MGM (and others I personally do not have access to - thus why I cite MGM) is still at 2. 

Holiday travel nuts the next few days.  I will update when I can (I anticipate tomorrow night for Saturday will be the next one).  As always, things may change here and there and I will cite those changes as close to time stamps as possible but I fear this will be the closest to gametime for many of the games tomorrow and there are 4 games with very little info, that should come in with new info tomorrow morning (SDSU-Boise, K St-Texas, TCU-Iowa St, ECU-Cincinnati), thus those games in particular could swing wildly.  I'll try to be as transparent after the fact to any such changes.  I do anticipate Nebraska being the top game still tomorrow as data has flowed into that one highlighted by reverse movement and the line jumping the fence.

This is an amazing thread. Nice job.

Loving boise and Nebraska tomorrow!

Any updates?

Ive been following and your becoming one of my top follows. This info is great thank you its appreciated

Was able to post this morning in between trip segments an the data for today's games mentioned previously is in!  The result was nothing to write home about but here is an update.  It is all Nebraska today.  Tomorrow seems all Nittny Lions

Friday

Noon

Boise St - 3 units - SKS outweighs west coast early start

Texas - 1 unit - low ticket home favorite

1:30

Nebraska - 10 units  - line movement with a low ticket favorite reverse movement SKS and sharp

3:30

Cincinnati - 1/2 unit - minor sharp action

4:30

Iowa St - 1/2 unit - minor sharp action

7:00

North Carolina State - 1 1/2 units - line movement and minor sharp action

8:00

Washington - 1/2 unit - minor sharp action

BTW I appreciate the comments of support, but feel awful about last night.  I was more sure of the egg bowl given the tells  than almost any all year.  For example, I felt better on that one than Nebraska today even though both are similar in units and tells.  Just goes to show that no system is infallible.

You can have solace that I took the personal hit more than on any other game this year along with all of you that followed it.

Mississippi St and Nebraska (with Boise as a bad tasting add-on - and shows I need to tweak the formula for west coast early game tell and increase it) have provided two very off putting results as Western Michigan balanced it out on one leg.  Nebraska "should" have covered except they are, well, Nebraska so I cannot really feel bad about that but Thursday night haunts me.  I was so damn sure. Penn St desperately needs to come in to salvage the week.  And some steam movement happened this afternoon to ensconce them as the pick.  Before I do a rundown, let me urge folks to jump on as low a number while they can if they are inclined to go on this game.  I usually like to wait until right before gametime but this one can still be had below a FG in some places so try to grab it. (DraftKings being the most prominent at 2 which gives some OT push protection).  It will be at least 4 everywhere at gametime at this rate.

As a note, as usual there were some late changes but they actually netted out negative from this morning.  The units increased on the Boise loser, the pick flipped to small ECU from small Cincinnati.  Texas did increase to 2 units from 1 so made some of it back.  

Don’t get discouraged over the two big misses! Send that update! Anyone who has followed isn’t upset. Can’t win them all and that’s fine. First post here. Made account to let you know you’re awesome! 

@HooAlum

 OK was on travel all day.  The headline is that yes, Penn State was still a high play that lost 11 units.  That means the week is for sure a negative week.  However, a bunch of middle sized numbers were very good.  Southern Cal is one of those with a lot still there and as I type Oklahoma St at -4 seems to be a push.  As usual, any changes I will try to cite the exact moment so folks can see why a change was made.  Unlike yesterday the changes were very positive including two new games that went the right way.  Both were reports from Patrick Everson tweets that I will cite.

@HooAlum

 Well, when you lose 3 of your 4 "big" games it usually turns into a losing week and this one was not an exception. If you read the industry press you may note that it was also a bad day for sharps in particular so I can take solace that the numbers told what they were supposed to. The overall weekly record was above .500.  However, I'll take money over wins-loss any day. Before this weekend was approaching 10% profit 8.98% and it fell to 7.12%.   

WEEKLY TELL UPDATE

OVERALL SEASON RECORD

163-137 (54.33%) (15-12 week)

863.5 units placed 925 won (7.12% profit)

TELL PERFORMANCE

West Coast Early Start - 82%!!!! (really should have weighted this more for the San Diego St-Boise game last week)

Steam - 67%

Lopsided Wagering - 64.58%

Blowout Response - 62.5% on limited line (47% no line adjustment)

Over/under Squeeze - 55.71% analysis (56.25% w-l) - This has really tailed off after a hot start but I went back and noticed it is often simply on the losing end against other tells the last 3-4 weeks.  It just is not in isolation like it was earlier in the year.  Big test this week for Iowa-Michigan.

Sharp Analysis - 55.53% (55.77% straight up without weighting - though since weighting adds more money to the pot, it has been worth it because more betting at a 55% clip is a good thing)

Reverse Movement - 53.49% (positive reverse movement 62.5%; negative reverse movement 48.15%)

Bye Week Return - 50.85%

Blowout Response - 50%

Low Ticket Favorite  - 49% (54.55% straight up)

Line Movement - 48.8% (toward favorite 46.5%; toward underdog 52%)

SKS - 48% (awful week last week)

Style Points - 48% (its is likely done for the year unless Iowa-Michigan and/or Cincinnati-Houston lines grow dramatically)

Noon Start - 47%

Here is the midweek update on the 11 games for the weekend. Enjoy it while it lasts because this system has a very spotty bowl record in years past. 

Friday

7:00

Western Kentucky - 4 units - line movement, sharp action and SKS outweighs lopsided wagering (this has the potential to go much higher in units)

8:00

Utah - 3 units - line movement and SKS outweighs small sharp action

Saturday

Noon

Oklahoma St-Baylor - no bet

Kent State - 1 unit - line movement

3:00

San Diego St - 2 units - sharp action

3:30

Appalachian St - 4 units - SKS and low ticket favorite outweighs sharp action

4:00

Cincinnati - 2 units - low ticket favorite and sharp action outweighs over/under squeeze

Alabama - 1 unit - lopsided wagering outweighs sharp action

8:00

Pittsburgh - 3 units - strong sharp action

Iowa-Michigan - No Bet

11:00

Southern Cal-Cal - No Bet

Thursday Night Update

Here is the midweek update on the 11 games for the weekend. Enjoy it while it lasts because this system has a very spotty bowl record in years past. 

Friday

7:00

Western Kentucky - 5 1/2 units - line movement, sharp action and SKS 

8:00

Utah - 3 units - SKS outweighs sharp action

Saturday

Noon

Baylor - 1 unit - sharp action

Kent State - 1 unit - line movement

3:00

San Diego St - 1 1/2 units - sharp action

3:30

Appalachian St - 4 1/2 units - SKS and low ticket favorite outweighs sharp action

4:00

Cincinnati - 4 1/2 units - low ticket favorite, lopsided wagering and sharp action outweighs over/under squeeze

Alabama - 1 unit - lopsided wagering outweighs sharp action

8:00

Pittsburgh - 3 units - strong sharp action

Iowa - 1/2 unit - over/under squeeze outweighs sharp action

11:00

Southern Cal-Cal - No Bet

@HooAlum

 two plays for tonight.  I'll update the 9 games for tomorrow late night tonight.

7:00

Western Kentucky (-3 - Wynn, MGM Caesars William Hill others are likely to follow in the next 15 minutes) - 4 units - line movement and SKS outweighs some mild sharp action

8:00

Utah (-2.5 - MGM, FanDuel and WynnBet, -3 at others likely a mixed bag overall at gametime) - 3 units - SKS (lower rank favored) outweighs sharp action

Championship Morning update

I do expect a number of sharp reports before noon.  I'll try to pull away and give an update on them.