Opposite Public Plays

Here is the Tuesday Update.  REALLY early as a number of these have lopsided wagering but that is simply because the ticket count has not matured.  I expect most of these to come back down and not be so lopsided).  I have never seen so many SKS plays, (and stupid Wisconsin is back so you can ignore them, I'll record but I will not be betting on them even though the numbers will likely say to do so)

Thursday

Tulane-SMU - no bet

Saturday

Noon

Michigan  - 2 units - bye week and sharp action outweighs Over/under squeeze

Navy - 2 units - lopsided wagering, over/under squeeze and sharp action outweighs playoff hopeful score runup

Kansas - 2 units - lopsided wagering

Kansas St - 3 units - lopsided wagering and low ticket favorite

12:30

Virginia Tech - 3 units - lopsided wagering and low ticket favorite

3:00

Wisconsin - 7 units (yeah right) - lopsided wagering, low ticket favorite, SKS

3:30

Pitt - 1 unit - low ticket favorite

Maryland - 4 units - lopsided wagering and bye week

Washington St-BYU - no bet

UCLA - 6 units - lopsided wagering, low ticket favorite, SKS outweighs early sharp action

Iowa St - 11 units!!!!! (largest bet of the year if it holds) - strong SKS, sharp action and low ticket favorite

Ole Miss - 3 units - lopsided wagering and low ticket favorite

4:00

Louisville - 4 units - lopsided wagering, low ticket favorite and bye week

Houston - 3 units - lopsided wagering and low ticket favorite

7:00

Tennessee-Alabama - no bet

Air Force - 6 units - sharp action, SKS

7:30

Indiana-Ohio St - No bet

NC State - lopsided wagering

TCU - lopsided wagering and low ticket favorite outweighs bye week

South Carolina - 4 units - lopsided wagering and over/under squeeze

Southern Cal - 2 units - lopsided wagering 

The love for the undefeated top 10 ranked public road dog Oklahoma State is going to lead to a Covers.com  blood bath...I am with you on Iowa State...

@LonghornHoosier

 They can't have that much love if they are a +200 dog. Book has to pay people 2-1 just to get them to take the bet.

@HooAlum

 Can you define the over/under squeeze? How does a play become that?

@HooAlum  Whats your thoughts on tonights game App St/C.Carolina?   Wagers are 80/20 for Coastal Carolina and line has moved from open -2 to -5.5 this AM down to -4.5 now  .. reverse line movement and fade heavy public money.  Is App State a ML play?

@PeAceMaKer7690

 The public is overwelmingly on Ok St...The Sharps are on Iowa State to 7...The public and a hell of a lot of touts are very misguided...This is not only going to be a comfortable win and cover for Iowa State, but in my opinion a DD beat down...GL on your picks! 

Friday Update. I would have one earlier with either the Coastal-App State game or SMU-Tulane but with games remained a "no bet."  sorry to those who asked but kept my powder dry as no "tells" popped (really strange as I'll even do Tuesday night MACtion  - I blame baseball taking some interest away)

Had a question on what an over/under squeeze is.  It is simple math.  The average score over the last 5 years has been a total of just over 54.  If a game's total is under that mark AND the spread is double digits then the books are squeezed.  They don't want to lose either bet but ifs the underdog scores just a modest amount of points then they can't have it both ways so something has to give.  75% of games are 49 or over, thus if the total is 49 it is a REALLY big squeeze.  Here is an obvious one from last weekend.  Georgia was favored by 23.5 over Kentucky but the over/under was around 45.  If Kentucky were to just score a couple of touchdowns either the total is busted or the underdog veered.  The final score was 30-13 thanks to backdoor touchdown BUT the oddsmakers had proved the backdoor into the total!!  Thus, it was not "lucky" but instead a natural expected occurrence to get the final total close.

While we have a few hours for this top change, likewise no games tonight are popping and appear headed to no bet (maybe the pac-12 game will change that but given awful Arizona is involved probably not - I'll post of it does).  But, I still wanted to deliver a rundown before the weekend getting a post outside the 24 hour 5 post limit for 7 pm window for tomorrow night.  Needless to say a lot of movement over the last few days

Saturday

Noon

Michigan  - 2 units -same as Tuesday

Navy-Cincinnati -no bet

NEW GAME!!! Army - 1 unit - modest sharp action

Kansas - 1 unit - lopsided wagering outweighs modest sharp action

Kansas St-Texas Tech - No Bet

12:30

Virginia Tech - 1 unit -low ticket favorite

3:00

Wisconsin - 8 units (I personally despise this pick-  Wisconsin just burns people) - lopsided wagering, line movement low ticket favorite, SKS - books will take a bath if they don't cover, and I blame the oddsmakers themselves if they lose.

3:30

Pitt - 1 unit - low ticket favorite

Maryland - 6 units - line movement, reverse movement, lopsided wagering and bye week

Washington St-BYU - no bet (same as Tuesday)

UCLA - 5 1/2 units - lopsided wagering, sharp action, SKS outweighs line movement

Iowa St - 12.5 units!!!!! (largest bet of the year if it holds) - strong SKS, strong sharp action and low ticket favorite. While weekend revolves around this game

LSU-Ole Miss - no bet

4:00

Louisville - 1 unit - lopsided wagering, low ticket favorite and bye week outweighs line movement

Houston - 1 unit - low ticket favorite

7:00

Tennessee - 1 unit - modest sharp action 

Air Force - 4 1/2 units - SKS sharp action outweighs line movement

7:30

Ohio st - 3 units - line movement, sharp action bye week outweighs lopsided wagering

NC State - 2.5 units - lopsided wagering and minor sharp action

West Virginia - 1.5 units - bye week outweighs minor sharp action

South Carolina - 2.5 units - line movement, over/under squeeze outweighs minor sharp action

Notre Dame - 1/2 unit - modest sharp action  

Are these moneyline plays or ATS?

@ScoutSha

@CrackerJackBets

Cracker Jack, these are ATS very important on games like Iowa St, Air Force, UCLA and Wisconsin (yuck) as the system is saying it will actually beat these numbers

ScoutSha

I reread and did research. I am shocked I missed the reverse movement (but I did).  That is classic reverse movement and you were proven correct to go with Appie State ML.  good eye.  It just had such low handle none of my sharp reports came in on this game so I stayed away and did not do a deep dive, but I should have read your post more closely and down exactly that (afetrall Coastal was ranked so it should ahem garnered interest at many books.  Your analysis was spot-on (and proven correct).

For everyone who wants to see what classic reverse movement is.  Check the data on that game about an hour and a half before game time is really textbook. Combined with the fact it happened while ticket counts were 3/1, man I definitely a missed opportunity on my part.  Really good find and analysis and sorry I did not deep dive until now.

Saturday morning.  Here is the whole list but I hope to update throughout the day.  Iowa St and Wisconsin are the system big plays (but the Badgers have really been a thorn in the side all year so I'll put an * there - follow the numbers and it is all Wisconsin at this point - Iowa St has a lot of points to go but still pointing there)

Noon

Michigan (-23.5)  - 3 units -solid sharp play and bye week outweigh over/under squeeze

Cincinnati (-28) - 2 units - line movement, score runup need outweighs over/under squeeze and lopsided wagering

Army (+3.5) - 2 units - sharp action

Oklahoma (-38) - 1 unit - modest sharp action

Kansas St (Pick'em) - 1 unit - line movement

12:30

Syracuse-Virginia Tech (3.5) - No Bet

3:00

Wisconsin - 10 units (it just goes up and up with reverse movement jointing as a tell)  - lopsided wagering, line movement, reverse movement, low ticket favorite, SKS 

3:30

Clemson-Pitt - No Bet

Maryland - 4 units - line movement, reverse movement, and bye week

Washington St-BYU - no bet (same as Tuesday)

UCLA - 3 1/2 units - sharp action, SKS outweighs line movement

Iowa St - 12.5 units - strong SKS, strong sharp action and low ticket favorite. A lot of faith this weekend in the Cyclones - makes up a quarter of the total handle on the system

LSU-Ole Miss - no bet

4:00

Louisville - 1 unit - lopsided wagering, low ticket favorite and bye week outweighs line movement

Houston - 5 units - low ticket favorite, lopsided wagering, reverse movement

7:00

Tennessee-Alabama - no bet

Air Force - 3 1/2 units - SKS, sharp action outweighs line movement

7:30

Indiana-Ohio st - no bet

NC State - 2.5 units - lopsided wagering and minor sharp action

West Virginia - 1/2 unit - bye week outweighs low ticket favorite, minor sharp action

South Carolina - 4 and 1/2 units - line movement, reverse movement, over/under squeeze outweighs minor sharp action

Notre Dame - 1 and 1/2 unit - sharp action  

@HooAlum

 I do not see the RLM on Wisconsin

Midday update as some late line moves.  I will report on further late line moves as I have to turn this in before Wisconsin but there are 3:30 and 4pm games as well on it.

3:00

Wisconsin (-3) - 8 units (it just goes up and up with reverse movement jointing as a tell)  - line movement, reverse movement (as a note it happened on 10/21 when it moved from 3 to 3.5 at a few books and ticket/handle ratios have continued on Purdue since) , low ticket favorite, SKS 

3:30

Clemson-Pitt - No Bet

Maryland (+4) - 6 units - lopsided wagering back, line movement, reverse movement, and bye week

Washington St (+4) - 2 units -lopsided wagering and reverse movement outweighs line movement

UCLA (Pick'em) - 5 1/2 units - sharp action, SKS outweighs line movement

Iowa St (-7) - 12.5 units - strong SKS, strong sharp action and low ticket favorite. A lot of faith this weekend in the Cyclones - makes up a quarter of the total handle on the system

Ole Miss (-9) - 4 units - late steam movement that also is reverse movement saloon with low ticket favorite outweighs line movement

4:00

Louisville - (-3.5)  1 unit - lopsided wagering, low ticket favorite and bye week outweighs line movement

Houston (13.5) - 3 units - low ticket favorite, reverse movement

@HooAlum

 quick update as some late line movement and % changed to affect some 3:30 games and BC-Louisville 

CLEMSON (+3.5) is now a 1 unit bet thanks to low ticket handle favorite going away

Maryland (+4) is now 5 units, not 6 due to lopsided wagering going away

4:00

BC-Louisville - No Bet - lopsided wagering went away

Houston (-13) - 3 units - low ticket favorite, reverse movement (note here is that line shopping at WynnBet at 3:31pm allows for a half point)

@HooAlum

 Where do you get your bet percentages and money percentages?  Thanks

updating all of this suck.  following would be difficult betting into good numbers  

@HooAlum

As you probably know, not a great week.  If Iowa State had come home, it would have been a nice winning week but 12.5 units is a lot and it is not like I can complain.  Oklahoma St deserved the cover.  Houston late as a loss was also not great.  Still up for the year but it is under 1%

OVERALL RECORD

90-80 (52.94%) (week 7-11)

457 units placed; 460.7 won (.81% profit)

TELLS

75% West Coast travel east early local start

71.43% Over/under squeeze

66.67% Steam

58.62% Teams coming off Bye week 

58.33% Lopsided wagering

51.85% Reverse movement (50% on reverse movement toward the favorite, 52.38% toward the underdog)

51.42% Sharp Action Assessment (53.62% regardless of strength of sharp play)

50% Score Runup for playoff positioned teams

50% Blowout response

49% Low ticket favorite (31% UGLY on application associated with no movement otherwise)

47.7% Line Movement (54% toward underdog, 42.2% toward the favorite) 

38% Home Noon start (not measured but tracked)

34% SKS (this is just awful and shocking - sole reason for a middling year, ironically Wisconsin of all teams delivered this weekend)

@HooAlum

 First slate of the week.  Usual notice applies in that lopsided wagering often evens out so don't jump on that tell yet.  One again, if you do not like or feel uneasy about certain tells feel free to ignore and only choose games that fit a profile you like.  I throw the kitchen sink at it so everyone can assess and make the decision with the most data available.  Wisconsin again is showing big.  It just is remarkable how much faith the oddsmakers have with the Badgers every week.  Last week they did finally deliver after several previous disappointments when a lot of others who the books backed (Iowa St) did not.

Thursday

Troy-Coastal Carolina - No bet

Saturday

Noon

Wisconsin - 7 units - the siren song of the system,  Should you believe in it? lopsided wagering, ;low ticket favorite, sharp action, SKS outweigh bye week advantage

Michigan - 1 unit - low ticket favorite and early sharp action outweighs bye week advantage

Miami-Pitt - no bet

Baylor - 4 units - line movement, low ticket favorite, reverse movement outweighs bye week advantage

3:00

Arizona St - 4 units - low ticket favorite, lopsided wagering and bye week advantage outweighs over/under squeeze

3:30

BC-Cuse - NO Bet

Florida St - 1 unit - over/under squeeze outweighs low ticket favorite

Nebraska - 3 units - low ticket favorite and bye week advantage

Oklahoma - 2 units - sharp action

Florida - 1 unit - Sharp action and over/under squeeze outweighs bye week advantage (both are coming off byes but Georgia is stronger due to being favored on a neutral site by greater than 7.

7:00

Mississippi St - 1 unit - lopsided wagering outweighs bye week advantage

Houston - 4 units - lopsided wagering, low ticket favorite, SKS and sharp action outweigh line movement

Auburn - 1 unit - SKS and bye week advantage outweighs sharp action

7:30

NC State - 3 units - lopsided wagering and low ticket favorite

Penn St-Ohio St - no bet

North Carolina - 1 unit - bye week advantage outweighs low ticket favorite

10:00

Utah - 3 units - lopsided wagering and low ticket favorite

10:15

BYU - 1 unit - low ticket favorite

10:30

Washington - 1 unit - lopsided wagering outweighs bye week advantage

Fresno St - 3 units - line movement,, sharps action, SKS outweigh lopsided wagering

Past start time so not really useful but posting anyway.  Both games sharp action are almost identical as the favorite took sharp action that had a ticket count below 50% and a handle above it.  Interesting dynamic favoring the favorite in each game.  However, Coastal Carolina and Troy balanced out with an over/under squeeze (17 point spread with a total of 50) and line movement dropping as the ticket count mounted.  East Carolina used similar sharp action dynamic but did not run into similar negative tells to the favorite so we are ECU 2 units at (-9.5).  Not a great start so far so we will see if the Pirates come back.

Respectful response here but Florida does not have the offensive line up front to cover the spread on paper.  Now if the Dawgs lose the turnover battle then a cover is potential.  We are at the mid point of season, 3 loss Florida team coming off a defensive collapse at LSU, and facing a Georgia #1 defense in country that WILL make adjustments to the Florida game plan,  I don't see Florida scoring more than 14.  Georgia should put up 28+ on this d. 

So no Iowa State play this week…A lot of us got burned by their late game conservative play calling…I am on them again this week…as I hope for the best.  

@HooAlum

Here is Friday night update for tomorrow when I will be very hit and miss on the updates.  Some will change and I'll cite how.  Longhorn, you are not alone on Iowa Set.  Single handedly cost me a solid week to my worst week of the season.  Handle and ticket count are really low.  That could change but off my board for now.

I am also personally not a fan of Florida but I just follow the numbers.  Pretty good reverse movement tell on the 14.5 going to 14 with only a quarter of bettors on them.

Noon

Wisconsin  - 8.5 units (one again, Vegas loves these guys but often they are a false flag unless they aren't like last week.  Lopsided wagering, low ticket favorite, SKS and very strong sharp action outweighs bye week return.

Michigan St-Michigan - No bet

Miami - 1 unit - line mo cement outweighs low ticket favorite

Baylor - 2 units - low ticket favorite, sharp action, reverse movement outweighs bye week return

3pm

Arizona St - 1 unit - bye week return, and line movement outweighs over/under squeeze and lopsided wagering

3:30pm

Syracuse - 1 unit - line movement

Florida St  - 3 units - line movement and over/under squeeze

Nebraska - 3.5 units - low ticket favorite, bye week return and small sharp play

TCU - 2 units - lopsided wagering

Texas Tech - 2 units - sharp action

Florida - 3.5 units - line movements, reverse movement, over/under squeeze, and small sharp action outweighs bye week return

7:00

Mississippi St - 8 units - SKS, low ticket favorite, line movement and bye week return

Houston - 4.5 units - lopsided wagering, SKS, sharp action outweighs line movement

Auburn - 6 units - Sharp action, SKS, bye week return and line movement

7:30

NC State - 1/2 unit - lopsided wagering and small sharp action outweighs line movement

Ohio St - 3 units - line movement and sharp action

North Carolina - 4.5 units - sharp action, bye week return

10:00

Utah - 3 units - lopsided wagering and low ticket favorite

10:15

BYU - 3 units - lopsided wagering

10:30

Washington - 1 and 1/2 units.lopsided waging and small sharp action outweighs bye week retirn

Fresno St - 1 unit - Line movement and SKS outweigh lopsided wagering staring sharp action

The morning update before a crazy day where I'll be away a bit so apologize in advance.  The key changes from last night is a number of games are added (Longhorn!!  Iowa St added!! Agreement in your direction) and Fresno jumped the fence which has always led to more attention to them and the unit rise reflected that.

Noon

Wisconsin (-2.5) - (FanDuel line shopping FYI) - 7.5 units (one again, Vegas loves these guys but often they are a false flag unless they aren't like last week.  Lopsided wagering, low ticket favorite, SKS and very strong sharp action outweighs bye week return.

Michigan St (+4) - 1 unit - sharp action, and a bye week return outweighs low ticket favorite

Pitt (-9) - 3 units - reverse movement late last night adds to low ticket favorite and outweighs line movement

Baylor (-2.5) - 1 unit - reverse movement outweighs bye week return

2pm

Iowa St - 1 1/2 unit - small sharp action and line movement

3pm

Arizona St - 2 units - bye week return, and line movement outweighs over/under squeeze

3:30pm

Syracuse - 1 unit - line movement

Florida St  - 1 unit - line movement and over/under squeeze outweighs lopsided wagering and sharp action

Nebraska - 3.5 units - low ticket favorite, bye week return and sharp action

TCU-K State - no bet

Oklahoma - 2 units - sharp action 

Florida - 3.5 units - line movements, reverse movement, over/under squeeze, and small sharp action outweighs bye week return

7:00

Kansas - 1 unit - line movement and sharp action outweighs lopsided wagering and low ticket favorite

Mississippi St - 8 units - SKS, low ticket favorite, line movement and bye week return

Houston - 4.5 units - lopsided wagering, SKS, sharp action outweighs line movement

Auburn - 7 units - Sharp action, SKS, bye week return and line movement

Boise St - 1/2 unit - lopsided wagering and bye week return outweighs line movement and small sharp action

7:30

NC State - 1/2 unit - lopsided wagering and small sharp action outweighs line movement

Ohio St - 2 units - line movement and sharp action

North Carolina - 2.5 units - sharp action, bye week return

10:00

Utah - 3 units - lopsided wagering and low ticket favorite

10:15

BYU - 3 units - lopsided wagering

10:30

Stanford - 1/2 unit - line movement and bye week return outweigh small sharp action and lopsided wagering lopsided waging

Fresno St - 7 unit -Big change as game jumps the fence Line movement, SKS and strong sharp action outweighs lopsided wagering

Hi.   Auburn and Fresno state are your 7 unit plays, correct?

Looks good and time to consider em as they are both later games.  Good luck!

3 pick parlay, Miss St/Auburn/Fresno St - seems like a smart play. Let's see what comes today..... I'm in