Opposite Public Plays

@HooAlum

 Only one game tonight in MACtion.  Kent St (+2.5) - 1 unit - small sharp action.  Yep, really small play but at least it beats zero from last night

well, for some reason the site was down (I assume others had the same issues).

No Big bet tonight:  Pitt (-6.5) - 1 unit - mild sharp action

Like I said, not very sexy

@HooAlum

 Here is the Thursday night update.  A LOT on the Buckeyes, making up about 1/4 of all wagering this weekend in value at present.

Friday

Cincinnati - 1 unit - style points outweigh reverse movement and line movement

Noon

Michigan - 2 units - sharp action, line movement outweighs lopsided wagering

Baylor - 3 units - lopsided wagering and sharp action outweighs bye week return

Mississippi St-Auburn - no bet

SMU - lopsided wagering and low ticket favorite

2:00

Georgia State - 1 unit - sharp action

3:30

Minnesota - 1 unit - line movement

Boston College-NC State - no bet

Texas Tech - 3 units - lopsided wagering and bye week return

Georgia - 1 unit - low ticket favorite

Ohio St - 11 units!!! - line movement, low ticket favorite, reverse movement, sharp action, style points

Florida St - 2 units - line movement and lopsided wagering

4:00

Maryland - 2 units - lopsided wagering

5:30

Stanford - 2 units - lopsided wagering, blowout response outweighs sharp action

7:00

Washington-Arizona St - no bet

Ole Miss - 3 units - lopsided wagering, sharp action

7:30

NC State - 3 units - line movement, strong sharp action outweighs lopsided wagering and low ticket favorite

Virginia - 2 units - lopsided wagering and bye week return outweighs sharp action

LSU-Arkansas - no bet

8:00

TCU - 1 unit - line movement

10:30

Oregon - 3 units - lopsided wagering, low ticket favorite, sharp action outweighs bye week return

@HooAlum

 Let's go Buckeyes!

One game tonight and it is a decent play due to Cincinnati's lofty ranking and relatively strong handle in turn.  This Kline has bounced all over the place this afternoon from 23.5 to 23 to 24 to back to 23.5.  In addition, the heavy betting on the bearcats has started to wane leaving us with just two tells.  Things could change over the next 2 hours for the 6pm start but this might be my last chance to post before game time so the call right now is Cincinnati (-23 at WynnBet only online house all others 23.5) - 4 1/2 units due to style points and sharp action.  If things change, I'll update and give the exact tells.

Here is the Friday night update.  As a note the loss of Cincinnati was not just 4 1/2 units but due to a late move at PointsBet went to 5 1/2 so a rough start to the weekend.  This weekend will likely depend on Ohio St as it for now is the biggest play of the year.  This will be the last comprehensive update due to the 5 post limitation in a 24 hour period.

Noon

Michigan - 1 unit - line movement

Louisville - 1 1/2 unit - lopsided wagering, low ticket favorite outweighs bye week return and mild sharp action

Baylor - 2 units - reverse movement (this could go back easily as a note) and sharp action outweighs bye week return

Mississippi St - 2 units - line movement and lopsided wagering

SMU - 3 units - lopsided wagering and low ticket favorite

2:00

Georgia St - 1 unit - sharp action

3:30

Minnesota - 1 unit - line movement outweighs low ticket favorite

Boston College - 1 unit - line movement outweighs low ticket favorite

Texas Tech - 3 units - lopsided wagering and bye week return

Georgia - 2 units - low ticket favorite and sharp action

Ohio St - 13 1/2 units!!!!! - line movement, lopsided wagering, low ticket favorite, reverse movement, heavy sharp action, style points

Florida St - 2 and 1/2 units - line movement, lopsided wagering and mild sharp action

4:00

Maryland - 2 and 1/2 units - lopsided wagering and minor sharp action

5:30

Oregon St - 3 and 1/2 units - (big change from yesterday) - line movement, low ticket favorite, sharp action outweighs blowout response

7:00

Washington - 2 units - lopsided wagering

Ole Miss - 1/2 unit - mild sharp action

7:30

NC State - 4 and 1/2 units - line movement, heavy sharp action outweighs low ticket favorite

Virginia-Notre Dame - no bet (probably best until you know if Brennan Armstrong plays or not - that announcement will affect bot the spread and the game outcome)

Arkansas - 1/2 unit - line movement outweighs minor sharp action

8:00

TCU - 1 unit - line movement outweighs low ticket favorite

10:30

Oregon - 2 and 1/2 units - lopsided wagering, minor sharp action and low ticket favorite outweighs bye week return

Noon

Penn St-Michigan - No Bet

Louisville (-3) - 3 1/2 units - line and reverse movement, low ticket handle outweigh bye week return and small sharp action

Baylor (+4) - 1 unit - line movement, sharp action outweighs bye week return

Mississippi St (+6) - 2 units - line movement, sharp action

SMU (-7) - 1 unit - low ticket favorite

2:00

Coastal Carolina (-12.5) (late change) - steam movement, line movement outweighs sharp action

3:30

Minnesota - 3 units - line movement and sharp action

Georgia Tech - 1 unit - line movement outweighs low ticket handle

Texas Tech - 3 units - lopsided wagering and bye week return

Georgia - 2 units - low ticket handle and sharp action

Ohio St - 5 1/2 units (game has pulled back from its highs last night) - low ticket handle, sharp action, style points outweighs line movement that erased the reverse movement reported earlier.

Florida St - 2 1/2 units - line movement, lopsided wagering and small sharp action

4:00

Maryland - 3 1/2 units - line movement and sharp action

5:30

Oregon St - 1 1/2 units - sharp action, low ticket favorite outweighs line movement

7:00

Washington - 2 units - lopsided wagering

Ole Miss - 2 1/2 units - lopsided wagering and small sharp play

7:30

NC State - 4 1/2 units - line movement and heavy sharp action

Virginia-Notre Dame - No bet

Arkansas - 1/2 unit - line movement outweighs small sharp action

8:00

TCU - 1 unit - line movement

10:30

Oregon - 2 1/2 units - lopsided wagering, low ticket favorite, small sharp play outweighs bye week return

That was a profitable morning.  Let's keep it up with bigger tests ahead.

3:30 update

Minnesota (+4) - stayed the same

Boston College (game change!!!) - 1 unit - game jumped the fence with line movement to BC

Texas Tech - stayed the same

Tennessee-Georgia (Game change) - no bet!!!!

Ohio St (-18.5) - stayed the same

Florida St (+2.5) - 1 and 1/2 units as lopsided wagering went away

4:00

Maryland (+12.5) - 6 1/2 units - I hate this pick personally but this is what the system says. Personally, I still like Ohio St as the play,expecially under 20 but my job is to report numbers. Lopsided wagering is hanging on by fingernails a (3%)  The units have increased due to reverse and line movement, lopsided wagering and sharp action.

A few mid afternoon notes: Over under squeeze came into play to lower Coastal from a 2 unit play to 1 along with Alabama sharp play with style points to counter heavy NMSU betting right at gametime (and line movement and over/under squeeze) to put it on the board for 2 unit at 49.5 at 11:47am.

Evening Update

5:30

Oregon St (-12) - 3 1/2 units - line movement, low ticket favorite and sharp action outweighs bye week return

7:00

Washington-Arizona St - no bet

Ole miss (+2) - 1 1/2 unit - line movement and sharp action

7:30

NC State (+2) - 4 1/2 units - line movement and heavy sharp action

Notre Dame (-7.5) - 1 unit - line movement and sharp action outweighs bye week return

Arkansas (-2.5) - 2 1/2 units - line movement, low ticket favorite outweighs sharp action

8:00

TCU (+11.5) - 1 unit Line movement

10:30

Washington St - 1 1/2 unit - line movement and bye week retrain outweighs sharp action

Late Night

Washington St (+13.5) - 3 1/2 units - line movement, sharp action, bye week return

San Diego St (-2.5) - 1 unit - line movement

Last week despite a record of only 17-15, the week brought home a nice profit due to hitting the big matchups.  This week the overall record was even better at 14-9 but misses on Cincinnati, Maryland (I was always skeptical) & NC State (by half a point) overshadowed a nice Ohio St win.  Overall a small profit was grinder put but it was only 1.3 units on 56 played so you aren't retiring on that.

WEEKLY UPDATE on tells

Overall record

136-113 (14-9 last week) 54.62%

Overall Profit

741.7 won on 683 placed (8.59%)

INDICATORS

Eastbound Travel early start - 78%

Steam Movement - 67%

Lopsided wagering - 65.22%

over/under squeeze - 61.9% (62.79% staraight up)

Sharp Action  - 55.45% (55.66% straight up)

SKS - 53%

Reverse Movement - 51.43% (60% positive reverse movement; 48% negative reverse movement)

Bye Week return - 50%

Blowout response - 50%

Low Ticket Favorite. - 48% (if took it straight with no analysis 54.93%)

Line movement - 46.9% (toward favorite 44.2%, toward underdog 51%)

Home noon Start - 45% (no input but still measured)

Style Points - 43% (reversed this week from its 25% overall figure last week)

@HooAlum

 You’re the goat sir

@HooAlum

 Only MACtion I have tonight is Bowling Green (+17.5) getting some modest sharp action for 1 unit. No other tells printed themselves on the slate.  

@HooAlum

 Want to get the one play in before Thursday night.  Later tonight, I will give a comprehensive for the week but as a preview guess who is once again the best early play????  if you said Ohio St, you would be right.

Duke (+20.5 at FanDuel) - 1 unit - blowout response tell (teams that lose by 28 the week before that also failed to cover  - e.g. Georgia beats Vandy by 28+ when the spread is 4+ touchdowns, that is not called a tell, that is called one team being significantly better than another team.  Often the team coming off the blowout is undervalued based on recency bias by the public).  

@HooAlum

Thursday evening Update

Friday

Houston - 3 units - line and reverse movement

Air Force - 3 units - line movement and reverse movement

Noon

Ohio St - 5 units - Style points, sharp action and low ticket favorite and lopsided wagering outweighs line movement

Texas-West Virginia - no bet

Florida St - 1 unit - line movement

Clemson - 6 units - SKS, line movement, low ticket favorite outweighs sharp action

Iowa St - 4 units - line movement and heavy sharp action

2:30

Georgia Tech-Notre Dame - no bet

3:30

Virginia - 1 unit - sharp action

SMU-Cincinnati - no bet

Maryland-Michigan - no bet

Nebraska - 2 units - line movement and bye week return

Alabama - 3 units - style points outweighs sharp action

4:00

Southern Cal - 1 1/2 units - lopsided wagering and bye week return outweighs sharp action

5:30

Kansas St - 6 units - SKS, low ticket favorite, sharp action

7:00

Cal - 2 units - sharp action naan bye week return

Auburn - 1/2 unit - small sharp action

7:30

Miami- 1 unit - low ticket favorite

Utah - 6 1/2 units - SKS, low ticket favorite, sharp action

8:00

Oklahoma St - 2 1/2 units - sharp action

10:30

Arizona St - 2 1/2 units - low ticket favorite and lopsided wagering outweighs small sharp action

@HooAlum

 Here are the pair of 9pm games tonight with some action.  The week started slow but it picks up tonight.

Memphis (+9.5) - 4 units - reverse movement and solid sharp action

Air Force (-1.5) - 3 1/2 units - reverse and line movement small sharp action

That's a lot of work, Thanks for the thread. 

Ok, so you took Duke last night and lost. Then you take Houston and you last post take Memphis? Hey buddy, you are guaranteed. Winner and a Loser on the same game. What is your logic after I followed your Duke pic?

@HooAlum

Last night u posted 3 units on Houston, then tonight u posted 4 units on Memphis.  Noticed a few similar instances in ur posts the last few weeks. Not bashing u at all I’m just curious. 

@HooAlum

Here are the games for tomorrow by gametime

Noon

Ohio St - 5 1/2 units - sharp action, style points, low ticket favorite outweighs line movement

Texas-West Virginia - No Bet

Florida State - 2 units - lopsided wagering

Clemson - 7 units - low ticket favorite, sharp action, SKS

Iowa St - 5 units - line movement and extremely big sharp action (largest liability against the public this weekend from the books perspective on top of that)

2:30

Notre Dame - 1/2 unit - line movement and small sharp action outweighs lopsided wagering

3:30

Virginia - 1 unit - sharp action

SMU - 1 1/2 units - line movement and small sharp action

Michigan - 1 unit - line movement

Nebraska - 1 unit - bye week return

Alabama - 4 units - style points

4:00

Southern Cal - 2 units - lopsided wagering and bye week return outweighs sharp action

5:30

Kansas State - 8 1/2 units - low ticket favorite, heavy sharp action, SKS

7:00

Stanford-Cal - No Bet

Auburn - 1/2 unit - small sharp action

7:30

Miami - 1 unit - low ticket favorite

Utah - 7 units - low ticket favorite, sharp action, SKS

8:00

Oklahoma St - 2 1/2 units - solid sharp action

10:30

Arizona St - 2 1/2 units - lopsided wagering, low ticket favorite outweighs small sharp action

How do you all not get this is based on the public bets which can flip at anytime. I’ve made so much money from this person I don’t do all the bets just the higher units. I literally just created an account to laugh at you call this guy out when you are just ignorant.

@Skobuffs

 Couldn't agree more. I am laughing with you all the way to the bank!! @HooAlum, thank you for all your hard work week in and week out. I have been playing this angle for years and we are usually in alignment every week!!

I’ve been tailing his larger plays too. I am just curious how a single play can flip 7 units in 24 hours when the line didn’t move more than a point at most books.