Opposite Public Plays

@HooAlum

 Hope everyone ket that Half point for a push with the Wildcats.  Despite my warning this morning, most books never made the move to 3.5 as it turned out and the ones who did actually popped back to 3 before game time so hopefully not too many people were burned.

The afternoon remains Utah by a mere 1 unit even with new tells coming in but they canceled each other out.  In the evening there is a pullback towards Baylor among sharp action.  That line has popped all over and jumped the fence multiple times so it probably is for the best that the whole thing goes to as small margin.  Thus, your substantial betting were the early games (and if you followed here and got Kentucky at 3 you are very happy with your day)

Utah (+4) - 1 unit - line movement (sharp action now conflicted)

Baylor - 1/2 unit - new sharp action outweighs line movement

@HooAlum

 Sugar Bowl tonight has Baylor edging for more thanks to a reverse move play in the last couple of hours.  Also, way late but there was a basic Utah tell on steam (you guys who follow the line know this happened) but I just flat out missed.  Game/spread in doubt still so reporting it for 2 units worth but completely understand the skepticism that attaches.  I am sorry.  My bad 100%.  Just remember there were other ones in the past ()Wyoming - Tennessee - Northern Illinois that went the wrong way but were reported late and counted against this system's total)

More improtant

Baylor (+1.5 - FanDuel others are at +1)  - 2 1/2 units - reverse movement and sharp outweigh regular line movement.

Thanks Hoo!

Your data and input is awesome. Much, much appreciated. Congrats on a hell of a couple of days!

4-0 and 5-0 back to back days for Hoo, Yeah baby! Almost sad to see bowl season coming to a close!  Trying Capping some NFL Hoo...Thanks again bud...

Lean on LSU game ?

@MattRexs119

24 hours out it actually its pretty strong K State

Kansas State - 7 units - steam (aggressive midday today), line movement, sharp action

National title

Georgia - 3 units - low ticket favorite and SKS (underseed favored over higher seed)

Bowl season to date tell performance 

OVERALL RECORD: 24-10

WAGERING. PERFORMANCE: 153.5 risked 220.6 won (43.71% profit)

Specific Bowl game tell performance

Over/Under Squeeze 100% (4-0 weighted, 3-0 straight up)

SKS 100% (3-0)

Instate P5/G5 Matchup 100% (1-0) (new tell for next year not used this year P5/G5 matchup broader than just instate but not playoffs as the instate was really taken from college basketball (83.33% - 5-1)

Bowl/Playoff Snub 100% (1-0)

Steam 85.71% (6-1)

Reverse Movement: 75% (9-3)

Lopsided Wagering: 75% (3-1)

Double Digit Underdog 71.42% (5-2) (next year will not include playoff games as favorite has a ton to play for which cuts against the underlying theory thus Alabama Cincinnati would not count next year - but did this year)

Line movement 63.33% (19-11) - I'll admit this is fortuitous as I agree with the poster that said this tell can be fools gold.  While it is 19-11 in bowl season when combined in the regular season it was only 50.96% (108-102).  However, when combined with tells on lopsided wagering and low ticket favorite it was a good measurement accelerant to increase the units placed so it is still valuable

Sharp Action Weighting: 62.71% (37-22) (Straight up 19-13 = 59.38%)

Low Ticket Favorite: 57.14% (8-6) (augmentation with positive line movement 6-5)

Early Local Start Travel Eastbound: 50% (1-1) - but I remind folks this was the TOP tell in the regular season at 82%

@HooAlum

 hope folks jumped on K State in time.  Line has dramatically moved for K State due to teh LSU absences.  Still 7 units, tells haven't changed but the line is definitely catching up.

@HooAlum

National title game report and wow, I am completely surprised how large a play this is . Glad we are playing with house money right now.  Even with a loss of this amount, it will easily me the best bowl season I personally have ever experienced.  These late opt-outs have played into the system perfectly.

Georgia - 10 units (largest of the bowl season) - strong sharp action (that I bet tails off a bit), reverse movement, SKS, low ticket favorite with line movement.

@HooAlum

 Well, overt the last 24 hours things pulled back from the huge Georgia vote of confidence of 10 units back to "only" 6, so still pretty good.  The line movement and reverse movement went away but the other tells of underrated favorite, low ticket favorite and heavy sharp action still remain.

Will obviously update changes as things develop.

@HooAlum

 OK, so the 2.5/3 "toggle" is the difference between whether the low ticket favorite has a 2 unit accelerant or not.  In short, it appears Georgia is the play, and it will either be 5 units or 7 units depending on whether the consensus number is at 2.5 or 3.  My suggestion is to jump in at MGM and/or FanDuel now at 2.5 as the others are at 3 at whatever unit level makes you feel most comfortable between 5 and 7.

We may have more data come in but that is where things stand now.

Final call was Georgia at 7 units as expressed earlier as a possibility

Yes on Georgia

@HooAlum

 What a way to end the season!

Thank you!

Here is the final results from bowl season and the season as a whole.  Let me just say that this was the most successful bowl season BY FAR!  The system has usually been much spottier.  Now, I do a regression analysis every off season and even throughout the season and it is clear some of the improvements led to improvement in performance but I seriously doubt I will ever achieve the success documented here again.  However, to be that right, that often, while certainly lucky, definitely shows there was something to it.  

Here is a summary of where we ended up

SEASON RECORD/BOWL RECORD

192-152 (55.81%)/25-10 (71.43%)

1048 Units placed, 1188.4 units won (13.4% profit)/ 168 units placed, 247.2 won (47.14% profit!!!)

TELL BREAKDOWN

Bowl Season Disappointment Disincentive: 100% (while it is my favorite tell if you can identify don't get too excited here as I am conservative since there is a subjective component so only 2 games fit the bill)

Bowl Season G5 cover vs P5: 80% (83.33% if you now view BYU as a P5 team - I did not but also did not include the Bama-Cincy CFP game as the entire point of this tell is that the P5 team takes the G5 team lightly in a game that does not mean much.  CFP games mean a LOT.)

Eastbound pre-noon 11am start: Season 79%; Bowl 66.7%

Steam: Season 74%; Bowls 82.5%

Bowl Season double digit underdogs: 77%

Lopsided Wagering: Season 65.38%; Bowls 75%

Reverse Movement: Season 58.18%; Bowls 75%

Sharp Weighted Analysis: Season 57.10% (56.77% straight up no weight analysis); Bowl 65.08%% (61.76%% straight up)

Over/Under Squeeze Weighted: Season 55.84% (56.6% straight up); Bowls 100% (100% straight up as well obviously)

Low Ticket Favorite: Season 55.14%; Bowls 60.0%

SKS (lower rank over higher rank - just listen to Lee Corso at the beginning of Gameday last night and you know): Season 51.3%; Bowls 100% (and not an overly small sample size of 4 games)

Line movement: Season 51.2% (toward favorite 48.6%, toward underdog 54%); Bowls 64.52% (Toward favorite 63.64%. toward underdog 66.67%)

Bye Week Return: Season 50.85%

Blowout Incentive: Season 48%

Noon Home start: 48% this tell did not contribute but was measured for statistical observation, and 2020 showed, it is a dud and not just a COVID thing)