Opposite Public Plays

@HooAlum

 sharp action increased slightly over the last hour on North Texas so the call is now 3 units (not 2) on the Mean Green.  You can still get (=3) at Fan Duel.

@HooAlum

 Tells (particularly sharp plays_ are starting to conflict so the instate UF-UCF battle has gone to a "no Bet" a5 minutes out.

@HooAlum

We are at a decent play for Georgia St (-6)  of 6 units.  Line movement, low ticket favorite and reverse movement all in play.  The sharp action swung  back from Ball St to neutral.

This was the tell for awhile so I should have jumped this morning as DraftKings had Georgia St (-5.5) but now it has jumped to (-6.5) there.  There are a number of books at 6 but don't be surprised if they are on their way to 6.5.

@HooAlum

Time for a comprehensive update given the break in the bowl action.  So far bowl season has been solid (especially given how mediocre bowls have been compared to the regular season in years past) but a long way to go.  A few more tells came into focus since we are only a week or less out from most games.

Bowl Season to date:

9-5 (167-142 regular season 54.05%)

44.5 units placed, 60 units won (34.83% profit) (7.73% profit regular season)

12/27

Western Michigan - 5 units - early start with travel and sharp action

12/28

Auburn - 1 unit - SKS outweighs sharp action and line movement

Air Force - 2 units - line movement, reverse movement outweighs sharp action

Mississippi St - 7 units - line3 movement, low ticket favorite, reverse movement and sharp action

North Carolina State - 2 units - reverse movement, low ticket favorite, and line movement outweighs sharp action

West Virginia - 1/2 unit - sharp action outweighs line movement

12/29

Maryland - 7 units - steam, line movement. sharp action

Clemson - 4 1/2 units - SKS and low ticket favorite line and reverse movement outweighs sharp action

Oklahoma - 1 unit - sharp action

12/30

North Carolina - 1 unit - sharp action

Tennessee - 7 units - line movement, low ticket favorite, reverse movement, sharp action

Pitt-Michigan St - No bet

Arizona St - 2 units - line movement and sharp action outweighs low ticket favorite

12/31

Wake Forest - 1 unit - line movement

Miami - 2 units - early start with travel outweighs line movement

Georgia - 4 units - low ticket favorite and SKS outweighs sharp action and line movement

Central Michigan-Boise St - No Bet

Cincinnati - 1 unit - lopsided wagering and high spread outweigh sharp action

1/1

Penn St - 1 unit - SKS outweighs line movement, reverse movement

Oklahoma St - 5 units - Reverse movement, sharp action

Kentucky - 5 units - SKS and low ticket favorite

Utah - 1 unit - sharp action

Ole Miss - 4 units - line movement and heavy sharp action

1/4

K State - 1 unit - line movement

@HooAlum

 Table setting for a full slate of bowl games. Big early changes  from the update a few days ago. (Houston now the choice and Air Force increases as the line jumped the fence) and I could see some late charging tells later, especially among sharp action plays (e.g. Houston got a ton)

Noon

Houston (-1 - at Wynn and William Hill - it is 1.5 or 2 everywhere else) - 6 units- Line movement, reverse movement, heavy late sharp action

3:15

Air Force - 7 units - low ticket handle, line movement, reverse movement, sharp action

6:45

Mississippi St - 7 units - line3 movement, low ticket favorite, reverse movement and sharp action

8:00

North Carolina State - 2 units - reverse movement, low ticket favorite, and line movement outweighs sharp action

10:15

West Virginia - 1/2 unit - sharp action outweighs line movement

@HooAlum

 Great info!!! 

@HooAlum

 Many of you know UCLA-NC State is canceled but there is big changes in the other as Mississippi St has dramatically pulled back to a 2 unit play down from 7.

Mississippi St (-9.5 - Fan Duel - 10 at most others) - 2 units - line movement, reverse movement, low ticket favorite outweighs sharp action and double digit bowl line.

West Virginia - 2 1/2 units - lopsided wagering and sharp action outweigh line movement.

@HooAlum

 West Virginia sharp action edged back ever so slightly.  It is now 1 1/2 units

West Virginia (+6.5) - 1 1/2 units - Lopsided wagering and sharp action outweigh line movement 

@HooAlum

 Here is today's games.  Couple of spikes (you probably all saw the massive movement in Oklahoma-Oregon and it is reflected here).  

12/29

Maryland - 7 units - steam, line movement. sharp action

Clemson - 4 1/2 units - SKS and low ticket favorite line and reverse movement outweighs heavy sharp action (and line movement is starting to head back to the Cyclones - is there a late report of Tigers missing the game? This one comes with caution as the sharps are starting to line up with the public on Iowa St - books may need Clemson bad - and that is what is driving the unit total here)

Oklahoma - 6 units - steam, line movement, SKS outweighs modest sharp action

@HooAlum

A few sharp plays coming back to Clemson (-1.5 - Fan Duel).  Now it is up to 5 and 1/2 units.  Like wise, Oklahoma pulled some action back its direction and is up to 7.

Here is the rest of the bowl season as it stands presently.  Hope to stay hot for just 1 more week.  Once again, hope to update as we go along as the best sharp action tells often arise a few hour before game time.

OVERALL BOWL RECORD

15-7 

88.5 units placed; 48.5 won (54.8 profit)

December 30

Thanks for the awesome data and thread.

Was hoping your numbers would point to USC this morning. Good luck! 

Sorry Greasy fat. The Covid USC-E issues are keeping it at 2 unitsfor the Heels. I barely am not pulling the trigger on steam this morning as the line is climbing rapidly. That would double it. Grab the Heels while you can at the lowest number. Books are all over the place on that movement. 

You like Tenn a lot at 8 units

@byharleyjames

 and the Vols (-7.5) killed the nice run we were on.  BTW, didn't post but it went to 9 units, not 8, so the loss was even worse than reported.

Tonight's games

Michigan St (-3.5) sits at 2 units - line movement and sharp action.  This also could not be the best result as Pitt leads by 4 right before half.

But huge movement as Wisconsin bettors have come in hard, creating reverse movement, line movement, low ticket favorite and even a bit of sharp action all in about the last 12 hours pushing a remarkable 8 unit swing as Wisconsin now has 7 units as opposed to Arizona St.

NOT A BIG FAN OF LATE MOVEMENT ACTION NEVER A GOOD SIGN .. 

No need to be a DBag about it!

After the best day of the bowl season things came back down to earth.  Wisconsin running out the clock a 1/2 point short turned what would have been an almost breakeven day to a loss (of course the only win was the lucky -3.5 Michigan St interception so no room to complain but 7 units in Wisconsin meant more than 2 for Sparty).

On the comment on line movement, yes it is a tell that will be converted to an augmentation not a standalone for 2022.

OVERALL Bowl; Record 16-10

108 units risked 140.8 won (profit 30.37%)

Still favorite heavy  as we go this morning but a lot of movement left to go likely

11am

Wake Forest - 4 units - line movement, low ticket favorite, sharp action and lopsided wagering outweighs double digit bowl underdog (though that last tell is undefeated at 5-0 with some outright wins)

2pm

Central Michigan - 1 unit - sharp action (hey an underdog pick sighting!)

3:30

Alabama - 2 units - sharp action outweighs double digit bowl underdog

7:30

Georgia - 8 units - low ticket, sharp action, SKS

@HooAlum

 as a note, some late steam came in on Central Michigan bumping up their total to 3 units from 1

@HooAlum

 Just before kickoff the line has pulled back aggressively but Bama still the call for 1 unit if you feel you want to play.  Wait close to game time as DraftKings is down all the way to -12 from -14 early this morning.  More books will follow and it could go lower.

Nice job Hoo, 4-0 day...Stay hot!

@HooAlum

Here is a bowl rundown for today and the 2 others next week (very early so no true tells on national title game so it merely serves as a placeholder for now).  I always post with the caveat that tells can move aggressively, mostly for the good like Central Michigan's late steam yesterday, but sometimes for the bad when teams kneel on the ball inside the 10 yard line with 2 minutes left only needing a half point like Wisconsin -  not that I am bitter.  Nevertheless, this is a good guide even if some of the units change

BOWL RECORD

20-10

124 units placed 171.2 won (47.2 profit = 38.06%)

Arkansas - 7 units - Line movement, low ticket favorite, reverse movement, sharp action

Oklahoma St - 6 1/2 units - line movement, reverse movement, sharp action

Kentucky - 5 1/2 units - low ticket favorite, SKS, minor sharp action

Utah - 1 unit - sharp action

Ole Miss - 2 1/2 units - line movement, sharp action

Kansas St - 3 units - line movement, sharp action

Georgia - 2 units - SKS

@HooAlum

 Great job Hoo!!

@COLTRB21

 bump Arkansas and Kentucky even more of a notch as late tells are making the already strong plays stronger.  Though you are about lose a key half point on Kentucky

Thanks for the great work.

Any updates for the other games?