Opposite Public Plays

Here is early games update:

Noon

Georgia Tech (1 unit) - line movement

Georgia (1/2 unit) - lopsided wagering and sharps outweigh over/under squeeze and line movment

Tennessee (1 unit) - sharp

TCU (6 and 1/2 units) - lopsided wagering, steam, reverse movement and small charp

Wisconsin (8 and a half units) - these guys just kill me.  Still could win but could be a huge loss) line movement, big sharp, SKS and blowout response

12:30

Louisville-Wake (no bet)

2:00 

Southern Cal (2 units) - line movement and sharps outweigh lopsided wagering

2:30

Cincinnati (6 units) - SKS, bye week, low ticket favorite and line movement

3:30

Troy (1.5 units) - line movement and small sharp

Rutgers (1 unit) - sharp play

Nevada (2 unit) - line movement and sharp play

Stanford (2 and 1/2 units) - lopsided wagering and strong sharp play outweigh line movement

Alabama (1 and 1/2 units) - line movement, low ticket favorite ourtweighs bye and small sharp

Oklahoma (3 and 1/2 units) - line movement, low-ticket favorite, reverse movement outweighs over/under squeeze and sharp play

Texas Tech (1 unit) - blowout response

6:00

Kentucky (4 and 1/2 units) - line movement, reverse movement, solid sharp play

7:00

Baylor (1 unit) - sharp play

Texas A&M (1 unit) - low ticket favorite

UAB (2 units) - line movement and sharp play

7:30

Boston College (3 units) - line movement and over/under squeeze

Indiana (1 and 1/2 units) strong (and IMO questionable) sharp play and over/under squeeze outweighs steam a=nd line movement

9:00

Auburn (2 units) - line movement, lopsided wagering and reverse movement outweigh strong sharp play

10:30

Arizona St-UCLA (no bet)

Well, back on the winning ways (but just barely).  60 units and you win  . . . 0.9 - yes if $60 bet, you won $.90 cents  - woo-hoo!  I'd also like to thank Wisconsin for the 2nd week in a row crapping the bed.  Badgers are just a killer on the SKS.  They are the definition of an overrated team by the books (you would think it would be a name brand like Notre Dame, Southern Cal etc  . . but no the Badgers are the worst.  They stunk last year and they still stink this year for the system and it is all based on the oddsmakers giving more credence to them than the public does - guess what? The public knows best when it comes to the guys in Madison - rant over - though you will notice I was pointing this out all last week, including the last post).  Oh and while we are at it, TCU, you suck too.  1/2 point from the week being a huge winning one but the Horned Frogs could not capitalize on their early lead.  2nd week in a row the closest call cut against me as with Tennessee-Florida last week.  On the other hand, thank you Kentucky and most importantly my play of the week Cincinnati. While less units than Wisconsin  and similar to TCU, it was my personal play of the week and helped the other smaller wins get the week.

The good was the late surge by two "after dark" games going from 0 bet to 2 units apiece.  Arizona St finally allowed late line movement ot be a POSITIVE, and Hawaii you officially rock (and Patrick Everson in particular, it was his late call that led to sharp play tells that ran the numbers to Hawaii on a game that I did not even have on my board - thanks.  Of course Ohio St-Rutgers was added due to him to my detriment earliern the day but I'll take a 2 unit win over a 1 unit loss any day)

Here is where we stand

OVERALL RECORD

57-56 (weekly record 14-11)

275 units wagered 285.9 won (3.96% profit) (weekly as mentioned was 60 with 60.9 return)

TELL RESULTS/UPDATE

West Coast - 75% (glad I changed to 11am, not noon as the breakpoint or Colorado-Souther Cal would have been a miss not a nice 2 unit win)

Over/Under Squeeze - 74% (fell from its 80% clip after a 50% week)

Lopsided wagering - 58%

Steam - 57%

Reverse movement - 56%

Sharp plays - 55% (came back down to earth with 50% week)

(all of the above 4 are in line with historical trends - line movement and low ticket favorite have brought the broader data down)

SKS 50% (without Wisconsin it would be 70%!!!  Now you better understand my rant at the beginning)

Line Movement - 42% (was 8-8 this week so back to "normal")

Blowout Response - 40% (was 1-2 but now 2-3 after a 1-1 week so low data points - BTW guess who the L was . you got it Wisconsin - yeah I really hate those guys right now)

Bye Week  - 33% (remember it was 0% so a decent 2-1 week gets it going , thank you Cincinnati)

Low ticket favorite - 21% (remember this used to be low teens but was 50% this past weekend)

Tuesday Afternoon Update

Here is the initial week.  A lot of tells coming early and as always when you see lopsided wagering, DO NOT ACT NOW, let it play irtself out.  only about 3-4 of these games will remain that way.

6 units

Ole Miss (-5.5) - low ticket favorite, sharp action, SKS outweighs blowout response

5 units

Virginia Tech (+1.5) - lopsided wagering, sharp action and bye week

4 units

Tulsa (-3.5) - lopsided wagering, low ticket favorite and blowout response

3 units

SMU (-13.5) - low ticket favorite and lopsided wagering

Auburn (+14.5) - lopsided wagering and strong over/under squeeze outweighs sharp action

Oklahoma (-3) - low ticket favorite and lopsided wagering

Texas A&M (+17.5) - lopsided wagering and over/under squeeze

Iowa (-2.5) - low ticket favorite and sharp action

Arizona (+16) - lopsided wagering and bye week

2 Units

Tulane (+6) - lopsided wagering 

Arizona St (-11) - sharp play and line movement outweigh over/under squeeze

Florida St (+17.5) - lopsided wagering

Syracuse (+6.5) - lopsided wagering

Boise St (+5.5) - lopsided wagering

Texas Tech (+1.5) - lopsided wagering

West Virginia (+3) - lopsided wagering

1 unit

Utah (+3) - Bye week outweighs low ticket favorite

Nebraska (+4) - lopsided wagering outweighs sharp action

Nothing yet

Michigan St @ Rutgers (+5) 

Virginia @ Louisville (-2.5)

LSU @ Kentucky (-3)

You lose nearly all of your big plays every week, go .500 overall, then come back every week with "somehow, we got the profit. and btw I added multiple plays after the game that were posted as no plays before the game" lol. Come on guy this is pathetic. No one knows wtf SKS and all your shit even means. Made up lingo and contrived betting angles like "low ticket favorite". Sad

@BarrelledIn

 Perfect.  This comment is too funny/spot on.

Thursday night amuse bouche

Houston (-6.5) - 1 unit - line movement the only tell (and you know that tell is only 53% correct in its history so only bet if you REALLY feel the need.

I'll be back with a Thursday lineup of the weekend board late night.

Thursday play sheet.

6 units

Virginia Tech - SKS, sharp action, bye week

5 units

Arizona St - line movement, low ticket favorite, very strong sharp outweighs lover/under squeeze

4 units

Tulsa - blowout response, low ticket favorite and lopsided wagering

Ole Miss - SKS and low ticket favorite outweigh blowout response

3 units

Syracuse - basic line movement and reverse movement

SMU - low ticket favorite and lopsided wagering

Texas A&M - lopsided wagering and over/under squeeze

Arizona - bye week and lopsided wagering

2 units

Virginia - lopsided wagering

1 unit

North Carolina - low ticket favorite

Utah - bye week outweighs low ticket favorite

LSU - low ticket favorite

Baylor - low ticket favorite

No Bet (for now - sharp action will likely show itself)

Rutgers-Michigan St

Maryland-Ohio St

Boise St-BYU

Texas Tech-TCU

Auburn-Georgia

Texas-Oklahoma

Nebraska-Michigan

Penn St-Iowa

@HooAlum

Friday Update 

Here is our one game tonight.  A somewhat surprisingly high spread given Stanford's strong play and a below average over/under as of late.  Maybe that is the point

3 units Arizona St - sharp action, line movement outweighs a nice over/under squeeze

things starting to come together for the weekend but still la lot of ticket counts have not moderated, particularly among the non-power 5.  Likely by gamete there will be more flow and the "tell" for lopsided wagering will act like a mirage.  An unusual number of dogs this week so far

6 units

Virginia Tech - SKS, very high sharp action and a bye week

4 1/2 units

Syracuse - line movement, reverse movement and bye week

4 units

North Carolina -low ticket favorite, lopsided wagering, sharp action

Tulsa -low ticket favorite, lopsided wagering, blowout response (I am intrigued by this game)

3 and 1/2 units

Rutgers - blowout response, line movement and sharp action

Auburn - lopsided wagering, reverse movement, over/under squeeze outweighs line movement and small sharp

Nebraska - smoke of the most aggressive sharp tells, I have seen all year.  I personally do not see it but man it is strong. We will know much more tomorrow morning

3 units

SMU -low ticket favorite, lopsided wagering

Texas A&M - lopsided wagering and over/under squeeze

Arizona - lopsided wagering anf bye week (but they stink so watch out)

2 units

Virginia - lopsided wagering

Ole miss - SKS outweighs line movement & blowout response

Iowa - sharp action

1 and a 1/2 units

Utah - bye week and sharp action outweighs low ticket favorite

1 unit

TCU - line movement

LSU - line movement

West Virginia - line movement

Oklahoma - low ticket favortie

1/2 unit

Boise St - lopsided wagering and small sharp action outweigh line movement

No Bet

Maryland @ Ohio St 

Keep going.  Like Rutgers, Syracuse, and Nebraska myself.

Today's games by timeline.  I'll try to update during the day.  As one respected poster pointed out, it is not fair (and fishy) if I am giving items out like a reporter after the fact.  While I will be completely transparent with a "why" a spread changed (ASU and Hawaii last week), I still need to get it to the forum before gametime, and I apologize.  

Covers.com does limit the number of posts in a 24 hour period and many of these moves happen 20 minutes out from gametime so a Notre Dame 2:30 game and a 6pm SEC ESPN game are killers as they break up the collective start time.  However, one thing I will not do is ignore how a tell did just because it showed itself after a posting but before 10 minutes of the actual game.  More often than not they lead to wins (ASU and Hawaii last week) but they in full disclosure also led to losses (Rutgers-Ohio St last week).  Both results get posted.

Noon

Rutgers (+4) - 7.5 units - line movement, reverse movement, strong sharp and blowout response (sharp plays very high here - almost Nebraska-Michigan level)

Oklahoma (-3.5) - 1 unit - sharp action

Ole Miss (-4.5) - 1 unit - SKS & blowout response outweighs line movement and low sharp action

West Virginia (+1.5) - 1 unit - line movement

Maryland-Ohio St - no bet

3:00

Virginia-Louisville - no bet

3:30

Auburn - 7.5 units - reverse movement, lopsided wagering, over/under squeeze and sharp action

North Carolina - 2 units - line movement and sharp action

Syracuse - 5.5 units - line movement and reverse movement and solid sharp action

SMU - 1 unit - low ticket favorite

Boise St - 2 and a 1/2 unit - low ticket favorite and sharp play outweighs line movement

4:00

Penn St-Iowa - no bet

7:00

TCU - 2 unit - line movement and sharp

7:30

Virginia Tech - 5 units - SKS, heavy sharp action, bye week

Nebraska - 5.5 units - never have seen more sharp action on a single game

LSU - 3 units - line movement & Sharp play

8:00

Texas A&M - 3 units - lopsided wagering and over/under squeeze

Utah - 3.5 units - bye week, sharp action outweighs low ticket favorite

9:00

Tulsa - 1 unit - lopsided waging and blowout response outweighs line movement (I like this one personally more than the tells as the lopsided wagering is REALLY lopsided at this point in a weird manner)

10:30

Arizona - 1 unit - lopsided wagering and bye week outweighs line movement

@HooAlum

3:30 update.  

3:30

Auburn (+14.5) - 4.5 units - Line and reverse movement, over/under squeeze and sharp action

North Carolina (-17.5) - 2 units - line movement and sharp action

Syracuse (+6) - 7.5 units - line movement and reverse movement and high sharp action

Boise St (+6.5) - 1 and a 1/2 unit - lopsided wagering and sharp play outweighs line movement

Navy_SMU - No Bet

4:00

Penn St-Iowa - no bet

7:00

TCU - 3 unit - line movement, low ticket favorite

7:30

Virginia Tech - 6 units - SKS, heavy sharp action, bye week

Nebraska - 6.5 units - line movement and extremely high sharp action

LSU - 2 units - line movement & Sharp play

8:00

Texas A&M - 3 units - lopsided wagering and over/under squeeze

Utah - 4.5 units - bye week, sharp action

9:00

Tulsa - 1 unit - lopsided waging and blowout response outweighs line movement (I like this one personally more than the tells as the lopsided wagering is REALLY lopsided at this point in a weird manner)

10:30

Arizona - 1 unit - lopsided wagering and bye week outweighs line movement

Evening Game Update.  This is the one where things move close to gametime and I will not be able to update.  Hopefully the bets stay stable but I could see a unit move here or there.

7:00

TCU - 1 unit - line movement

7:30

Virginia Tech - 9 units - SKS, low ticket favorite, heavy sharp action, bye week - really coming on strong late

Nebraska - 7.5 units - line movement and extremely high sharp action (every single source is all over it)

LSU - 2 units - line movement & Sharp play

8:00

Texas A&M - 3 units - lopsided wagering and over/under squeeze

Utah - 4.5 units - bye week, sharp action

9:00

Tulsa - 1 unit - lopsided waging and blowout response outweighs line movement (I like this one personally more than the tells as the lopsided wagering is REALLY lopsided at this point in a weird manner)

10:30

Arizona - 1 unit - lopsided wagering and bye week outweighs line movement

Late Night

A lot riding on things in Blacksburg and Lincoln.  Need one of those to determine a winning or losing weekend.

Arizona numbers went to zero so no bet in that one and no late night heroics (or pain).  

I'm 2-0 today on huge public plays

@HooAlum

 Well, as pointed out, despite marginal wining weeks, fig you lose your big ones, it leads to down weeks and that is what happened this week.  The uber sharp plays on Nebraska and Rutgers and solid ones with other tells hurt Virginia Tech.  The Hokie and Cornhusker games were particularly harsh (people said buy the 1/2 point in Lincoln - probably should have said to do so) however Syracuse was a nice one.  If Rutgers - not deserved - Virginia Tech or Nebraska (toss-ups) had come home, we stalling a dramatic swing for the week and year.

On the tells themselves sharps had an off week and SKS hit the skids not based on Wisconsin going 0-2.  Once again, I mention the tells in each game.  If you do not like certain tells, ignore those games.  If you like some t4lls emphasize those games.  If you have questions, I am more than happy to give a glossary on terms.

TOTALS

SEASON RECORD

66-64 (9-8 for the week)

333 units placed 330.7 won (loss of 2.3 units or 0.69% loss)

West Coast early start - 75% (we are in teh conference slate, unlikely to see any more unless Hawaii has a 3pm EST start)

Over/Under Squeeze - 69%

Lopsided wagering - 61%

Steam - 57%

Reverse Movement - 53%

Sharp Action - 53%

Bye Week Prep - 50%

Blowout response - 50%

Line movement - 44.19% (was 8-6 this week so likely will find its way close back to 53% as a trip back to the mean after a hellish start)

Low Ticket favorite - 43.75% (winning week move it back to the mean but still way off historical averages which reflect the mid-50s)

SKS - 39% (SKS is when traditionally used public rankings the public sees regularly and the spread do not match up - AP poll is the most common)

Tuesday Update

First games of the week and a ton of early action.   I am actually surprised by the handle that is flowing but it is good as it stabilizes the lines early and telegraphs plays a little better.

Friday

Clemson 2 units - low ticket favorite, lopsided wagering and bye week outweighs heavy over/under squeeze

Cal-Oregon - no bet

Saturday

Noon

Indiana-Michigan St  - no bet

Minnesota - 1 unit - bye week

UCF-cincinnati - no bet

Missouri - 2 units - lopsided wagering

Texas - 1 unit - low ticket favorite, SKS outweighs sharp action and bye week

LSU - 2 units - lopsided wagering

Auburn - 1 unit - sharp action

3:30

Miami - 4 units - lopsided wagering and bye week

Pitt - 1 unit - bye week

Baylor  - 4 units - SKS

Purdue - 2 units - over/under squeeze and bye week outweighs low ticket favorite

Kentucky-Georgia - no bet

Evening Games

BC-NC State - no bet

Washington - 2 units - low ticket favorite and bye week

TCU - 1 unit - lopsided wagering outweighs sharp action

Mississippi St - 3 units - lopsided wagering and bye week

Ole Miss - 3 units - lopsided wagering and low ticket favorite

Kansas St - 2 units - lopsided wagering

Washington St - 2 units - lopsided wagering

@HooAlum

Thursday late afternoon update. I am still watching the games tonight but the handle and sharp tells are not there at present.  Maybe something comes late and I add one of the games but nothing right now.

Friday

Syracuse-Clemson - No bet

Cal - 1 unit - Heavy sharp play outweighs bye week and low ticket favorite

Saturday

Noon

Indiana - 5 units - lopsided wagering, reverse movement, bye week

Minnesota - 1/2 unit - bye week outweighs minor sharp action

UCF-cincinnati - no bet

Missouri - 2 units - lopsided wagering

Texas - 1 unit - SKS outweighs sharp action and bye week

Florida - 2 units - line movement, sharp action

Auburn - 1 unit - sharp action outweighs line movement

3:30

Miami - 4 units - lopsided wagering and bye week

Pitt - 1 unit - bye week

Baylor  - 4 units - SKS, solid sharp action, line movement, low ticket favorite (lot of tells on this one)

Purdue - 2 units - over/under squeeze and bye week outweighs low ticket favorite

Kentucky - 4 units - line movement, sharp action and over/under squeeze outweighs sharp action

Evening Games

NEW GAME: Army - 2 units - over/under squeeze (shocker a service academy is involved in one of these), sharp action outweighs line movement

Boston College - 1/2 unit - small sharp action

Washington - 3 units - low ticket favorite and bye week outweighs sharp action

Oklahoma - 1 and a 1/2 unit - sharp action

Mississippi St - 5 units - lopsided wagering, sharp action and bye week

Tennessee-Ole Miss - no bet

Kansas St - 2 units - lopsided wagering

Washington St - 2 units - lopsided wagering

late night catchup game

Arizona St - 1 unit - sharp action

@HooAlum

Programming note, I am on the road starting around 10am tomorrow and that is well before a ton of sharp action traditionally comes in from Vegas.  I will try to be meticulous and cite exact numbers if things change on particular games for recording purposes, including time stamps of when the information came in.  I know this will not make up for followers who use the information and I apologoze in advance.  I do hope to be pretty active tonight with a post in the two big games tonight right before kickoff if things change from what is listed below and likely will be back in time for the evening games tomorrow.

Late action in Clemson-Cuse game pulls that one back to Clemson thanks to the public ticket numbers going toward the home dog and a late modest sharp play along with the bye week factor overriding what is a very strong over/under squeeze.

The line slips to 13.5 at a number of shops so I'll take Clemson (-13.5) at 1 unit.

@HooAlum

Comprehensive Update since I do not know how much it will change tomorrow morning when I post for the last time around 10am

Cal (+13.5) - 3 units- still the call thanks to sharp action, late line movement and over/under squeeze outweighs bye week

Saturday

Noon

Indiana - 6.5 units - reverse movement (though it is a weak tell on it), bye week and solid sharp play.

Minnesota - 1/2 unit - lopsided wagering, bye week outweighs line movement and minor sharp action

Cincinnati - 1 unit - line movement

Missouri- 1/2 unit - lopsided wagering, small sharp action outweighs line movement

Oklahoma St - 1 unit -bye week, line movement, sharp action outweighs SKS

Florida - 1/2 unit - line movement, sharp action outweighs lopsided wagering

Auburn - 1 and 1/2 unit -sharp action outweighs line movement and low ticket favorite

3:30

Miami - 4 units - lopsided wagering and bye week

Pitt - 1 unit - bye week

Baylor  - 4 units - SKS

Purdue - 2 and 1/2 units - over/under squeeze sharp, and bye week outweighs low ticket favorite 

Kentucky - 2 and 1/2 units - line movement, and over/under squeeze outweighs low ticket favorite and small sharp action

Evening Games

Army - 2 units - over/under squeeze, sharp action outweighs line movement

NC State - 1/2 unit - low ticket favorite outweighs small sharp action

Washington - 3 units - lopsided wagering, low ticket favorite and bye week outweighs sharp action

Oklahoma - 1 and a 1/2 units - low ticket favorite, sharp action

Mississippi St - 6 units - lopsided wagering, sharp action and bye week

Tennessee - 1 unit - line movement

Kansas St - 2 units - lopsided wagering

Washington St-Stanford - No Bet

late night catchup game

Arizona St - no bet

Always good to start the week on solid footing.  Now let's see if we keep it up.  Once again, this will be the last update and that means the last hour which indicates key line movement and sharp action for betting will not be reported.  Any changes that will occur (and they will for good or bad) will be given exact cites and timelines of when and why.  I apologize but have a family matter that will keep me away from a computer for 7 hours or so.

Noon

Indiana (+4.5) - 7.5 units - reverse movement, bye week and solid sharp play. The "Bear" did name this one already this morning on Gameday, but I  really don't care.  I hope he wins as it means the indicators are true.  Maybe he is seeing the same sharp action I am seeing.  It is the only reverse movement on the board today (for now).

Nebraska (-4) - 1/2 unit - line movement and minor sharp action outweighs line movement (lopsided wagering went away)

Cincinnati (-21.5) - 1 unit - line movement

Texas A&M (-11.5) - 1/2 unit - line movement outweighs minor sharp action (lopsided wagering as it often does went away)

Oklahoma St-Texas - No Bet 

Florida (-12) - 1/2 unit - line movement, sharp action outweighs lopsided wagering

Auburn (+5) - 1/2 unit -sharp action outweighs line movement and line movement

3:30

Miami (+7.5) - 2 units - bye week prep

Pitt (-6.5) - 1 unit - bye week prep

Baylor (-4.5) - 4 units - SKS

Purdue (+11.5) - 4 and 1/2 units - line movement, over/under squeeze, sharp, and bye week outweighs low ticket favorite 

Kentucky (+22.5) - 3 and 1/2 units - line movement, small sharp action (was made at a higher number) and over/under squeeze

Evening Games

Army (+14) - 2 units - over/under squeeze, sharp action outweighs line movement

NC State (-3) - 1/2 unit - low ticket favorite outweighs small sharp action

Washington (-1.5) -1 unit - low ticket favorite and bye week outweighs sharp action

Oklahoma (-13.5) - 1 and a 1/2 units - low ticket favorite, sharp action

Mississippi St (+17.5) - 6 units - lopsided wagering, strong sharp action and bye week

Tennessee (+2) - 1 unit - line movement

Kansas St (+7) - 2 units - lopsided wagering

Washington St-Stanford - No Bet

late night catchup game

Arizona St-Utah -  no bet

I am back will update the day soon

Two late plays.  One huge.  

Utah (-1.5) from no bet now over Arizona St 7 units!!! - reverse movement the key along with sharp action  and line movement (it jumped the fence so sort of obvious).

Also as a nice smaller play Air Force has some nice sharp play and movement to them so a 2 unit play over Boise.

Have fun after dark!!

@HooAlum

 also for games happening right now and want to get this in while games are in doubt for transparency sake

Army remained the same (+14) :-l

NC State (sharp action from PointBet midday and MGM combined with low tickets on teh favorite aided the Wolfpack cause) to 2.5 units :-)

UCLA-Washington no bet (UCLa sharp action from PointsBet midday and MGM counteracted the staying power of the Low ticket favorite and bye week rest for the Huskies) :-l

Oklahoma now 1/2 unit not 1 1/2(Sharp action reported at pointsBet reduced Oklahoma advantage and 40% aggregated public bet at 11am went to 56% right before kickoff)  :-(

Mississippi St went to 4 units due to line movement from 17.5 to 18 right before kickoff :-)

Tennessee increased from 1 unit to 2 units due to sharp movement reported at PointsBet midday :-(

Iowa St now the call with a 1 unit (the aggregated public bet went from 83% at 11am to 50% by kickoff making it no longer a lopsided betting tell for Kansas St) :-)

Washington St from no bet to 3 units - everyone can see why as this jumped the fence around noon, combined with low ticket on the Cougars, very good tell game even if the game is very much in doubt :-l

Here are the noon & 3:30 changes since the morning with cites

Noon

Indiana (+4.5) - 7.5 units - no change still a big loser BY HALF A POINT!!!!!!! :-(

Minnesota (+5) - 1 and 1/2 unit - sharp action swung at 11:45am through MGM and Points Bet with high lopsided ticket counts with less money flowing to the Huskers at those high ticket counts at both books.  A clear sign of sharp action.  Minnesota had the bye week as well.  Nebraska still had line movement as evidenced by the line move from 4 to 5 but that was a tell in favor of the Huskers (but as I have mentioned a small tell) :-)

Cincinnati (-21.5) - 1 unit - stayed the same

Missouri (+12) - 1 and 1.5 unit instead of Aggies 1/2 unit thus a loss of 2 units. This one shows that tells CAN go the wrong way late.  this went from a winner to a loser due to sharp action increasing to the Tigers.  Thus, sometimes sharp action comes as it did for the Gophers, and sometimes it goes.  It comes more than it goes late so that is why I still apply it.

Oklahoma St-Texas - Still No Bet 

Florida (-12) - 1 and 1/2 unit - sharp action INCREASED for the gators so another unit lost late due to sharp action

Auburn (+5) - 1/2 unit  stayed the same

3:30

Miami (+7.5) - 2 units -stayed the same

Pitt (-6.5) - 3 units up from 1 unit - easy tell for you guys to see.  Steam action moved the line from 5 to 6.5 in a few minutes literally everywhere at 9:38am (9:42 and 10am at a couple).  If you want to see what Steam is check out the lines at your favorite shop.

Baylor (-4.5) - 4 units - stayed the same

Purdue (+11.5) - 5 and 1/2 units up from 4 and 1/2 -over/under squeeze, sharp, and bye week all continued.  Purdue lost its line movement as the line came back up a 1/2 point from 11 to 11.5 but Iowa lost its low handle at 3:19pm the composite handle was 53% up from 45% at 11am when it was last reported  

Kentucky (+22.5) - 3 and 1/2 units - stayed the same

Thus, late movement that was not reported at noon and 3:30 improved the betting by 2 units (5 gained 3 lost). 

I hope this is explainable.  This process is the same as what happened a few weeks ago when criticism was levied but hope the transparency satisfies folks this time around.

Now a lot rides on the Utes late.  A win there and it is a monster week.  A loss and it is still a solid week that puts me back in the winining column for the year.

Here is the weekly update.  Had the best week of the year W-L and total won.  Total would have been a lot more had the biggest game of the week not lost by a single point (make a 2 point conversion Hoosiers!!!).  However, late night Utah made up for it after dark.

OVERALL RECORD

83-69 (55%) 396.5 units placed 418.8 won (5.63% profit)

TELL PERFORMANCE

100% - Playoff Run the Score Up - (don't get too excited only 1-0)

75% - Over/under Squeeze (9-0 this week.  Should have emphasized this tell more to start the season - it is the first year it is applied after a provisional year last year))

75% - Early start for West Coast team

63% - Steam

54% - Lopsided Wagering

54% - Sharp Action

52% - Reverse Movement

52% - Power 5 coming off Bye Week

50% - Blowout Response

47% - line movement (slowly getting back to 53%)

41% - SKS

33% - Noon home start - (not included in the formula but still calculated)

30% - Low Ticket favorite (straight up it is at 47.5% so likely should have gone closer to that)