Opposite Public Plays

This is your Saturday guide for tomorrow.  I'll likely try to update 11ish, 3ish, 6:30ish and 10pmish (thus getting my limit of 5 posts in, including this one).  Many of those will be just the games in that timeslot as things go fast and furious.  I'll try to be this expansive at 11am but no promises.  

Final note, sorry to everyone as I was trying to keep my posts at the 5 a day limit so did not add the strong Boise St sharp play (and that line movement did occur to for UTEP so it limited the bet) but the bet was 1 unit Boise.  Not a big deal but full transparency is key for credibility so feel free to not count that one if scoring at home but it really was caught and I'll be including in my personal totals.  

Also, Kansas 26.5 really was a kick in the shorts losing by a half point due to multiple extra points missed.

Interesting at the very least. Best of luck to you.

Love reading your posts.

"Great spirits have always encountered violent opposition from mediocre minds.  The mediocre mind is incapable of understanding the man who refuses to bow blindly to conventional prejudices and chooses instead to express his opinions courageously and honestly."

Albert Einstein

Good fortune today.

@HooAlum

How is tennessee reverse line move? Public is on tennessee. line is moving in favor of pittsburgh?

New Mexico st is one of the teams that didn't play 2020 season. Teams that sat out 2020 has looked pretty bad. 

@VeryBlueJay

 You answered the question.   Public is on Tennessee and line is moving to Pitt.  That's reverse line movement 

@HooAlum

early notes: Ohio St and Oklahoma St are likely losers (remained the same).  ECU is possible.  However, Tennessee-Pitt changed dramatically as late line movement and % betting dramatically changed after posting.  That moved it from a strong Tennessee play of a small (1 unit) Pitt play.  Game is still in doubt but I want to note it is Pitt (-4) - notice the extra point from this morning that is what caused the dramatic change along with ticket count swinging wildly the other way.  Hey you could still win with Tennessee as it is a 7 point game with a lot of time left so there is a part of me who hopes they win just so I didn't burn someone with a high play.

Also the play remained the same with Toledo but they lost a point and are only getting 16. (not 17)

3:30-/4:30 game update

2 units

Iowa St (-4) - low ticket favorite, small sharp play

TEXAS A&M!!!!! (change from this morning) (-17.5) - line movement and solid sharp play outweigh over/under squeeze

1 unit

Navy - (+6.5) - blowout response only tell left

CAL!!!!!! (change from this morning) - strong over/under squeeze outweighs line movement

Other later games of note

Stanford now at 4 units & Texas now has the advantage at 1 unit.  Holy War now a tossup

@HooAlum

Got to play catchup here.  Overall record decent but the big Ohio St loss is like an anchor.  Thus, going into the night, there are a handful of big games and I will need the majority of them to come home.  Eyeing Stanford (4 units right now) late night as the last ditch bet.

 7pm

6 units

Mississippi St  (+1.5) - Steam, reverse movement and line movement (a lot rides on this one for the weekend)

1 unit

Miami (-7.5) - blowout response

New Mexico (-19.5) - line movement

No tells

Texas @ Arkansas (6)

7:30

1 unit

Kentucky (-5) - line movement

8:00

4 units

Washington (+6.5) - all the tells have swung to the Huskies, lopsided wagering, reverse movement and sharps have gone away from Michigan to neutral

Alright final 4 games but Holy War with no action (7) 

4 units

Stanford (+17.5) - Where did this game come from?  Was not discussed all week but some reverse movement and an over/under squeeze makes this attractive

3 units

UNLV (+35) - Strong over/under squeeze and lopsided wagering but ASU has had some line movement to pull back the overall bet

2 units

Hawaii (+11) - bets have come on strong on the Beavers leading to lopsided wagers without a line movement to accompany it.

I would have thought Ohio State was the most public play, not the opposite public.  But you have your methodology.  Good luck on the rest of your card.  I was smart enough to not bet my picks this week, looking at 4-11 day on the picks I wrote down, so I am not trying to give anyone advice.  Can't wait for the real football (NFL) to start tomorrow...

@thorpe

 I would have thought Ohio State was the most public play, not the opposite public.  But you have your methodology.  Good luck on the rest of your card.  I was smart enough to not bet my picks this week, looking at 4-11 day on the picks I wrote down, so I am not trying to give anyone advice.  Can't wait for the real football (NFL) to start tomorrow...

agreed, i'm a little confused about this one for sure. i help out a local the old fashion way by writing it down to on a receipt to people and ohio state was as public as it got. but hooalum has his methods as you said. his miss. st. was on point though so i'm scratching my head...

@hooalum

you doing this for nfl as well?

@illuminatist

@thorpe

 Thanks, Ohio St Oregon single hardly created the week to be a loser so I am bummed but it just shows why you can't win them all.  I'll run through that game specifically as it is a great breakdown of how the numbers come to provide a result that I try to share.  it's always better to openly discuss a failure than to give excuses or change the game to a successful one.  That game was a miss and would be a miss going forward next year.  It just simply was.

How did Ohio St-Oregon come to be a contrarian play: the rolling average of ticket count was below 50% (39% to be exact) to show that most "bets" placed, regardless of amount, went to Oregon.  In addition, of the 4 reported books on handle versus ticket, handle was ahead of ticket count in all of them.  That means a smaller group of people supported Ohio St than the broader public (sharps action?).  There was also the home game at noon.  Over the years the public has not bet up noon hosts compared to other times of the day.  It is not a strong tell but it is positive (though I could easily pull this one back after a regression analysis if it performs poorly this year).  Finally, a great tell that just did not come home is the pre-11am body clock for the visitor.  It is tried and true and very good as a tell.  the record is 3-1 this year among games with a P5 team included (Hawaii-UCLA, Stanford-K State, Illinois-Virginia).  And in each off those games the reason they failed to cover was extremely evident - they didn't show up early and the winner ran out to a big start.  That simply did not happen in UO-tOSU but 75% is still a good tell.  It also was the reason I hyped up the game.  I guess I should have looked inward and gone with Illinois Virginia.

Here is a rundown of the week and year to date by "tell"

OVERALL

Record: year 22-20 (52%); week 9-11

Unit Totals: year 114.1 on 103 wagered (10.78% profit); week 36.2 on 48 wagered (-6.8%)

TELLS

Steam: year (100%); week (100%)

SKS (Somebody Knows something): year (100%); week (N/A)

Weighted Over/Under Squeeze: year (90%); week (88%) - love this new tell.  It is common sense as you saw me exclaim on UNLV-ASU

Pre 11am body clock: Year (75%); week (50%)

Weighted Sharp Indicators: year (60%); week (50%)

Lopsided Wagering: Year (50%); week (33%)

Noon Home Advantage: Year (50%); week (25%)

Reverse Movement: Year (43%); week (67%)

Line movement: (this one may need to be adjusted to only be for items it segments like low tickets and lopsided wagering instead of standing on its own - it is only 52.9% on its own): yearly 41% weekly 30%; upward movement toward favorite only 27%! for the season was an awful (14%) this week.  downwards movement to underdog is (71%) (67% this week).

Low ticket favorite year (17%); week 0-2 (0%) - This one is tried and true over time,.  Just have to be patient.  We all know one of the 2 losses (see above)

Blowout Response: year (0%); week (0%) (it was 0-2 in its inaugural week)

NOT YET APPLICABLE

P5 Bye Weeks

CFP Runup Incentive

Thanks for breakdown. Not questioning your method at all FYI. From a perspective of actually writing tickets by hand to old school people that don't know how or don't want to use online methods to wager, I know which guys are considered public bettors and some teams are automatic bets for them is the point i was trying to make. I still like the variables you use, its just some teams will always be a public bet according to Joe public. Do not get me wrong Joe public will win too.

Looking forward to your information this week. 

@illuminatist

Definitely no offense taken.  Glad you find it valuable.  That is my goal.  Just to deliver info and see if it helps people.  Not like I am making money off it. (except to the extent I personally win or lose using this method)

Here is the upcoming week.  We have TWO really interesting spreads that fall into the Lee Corso model that has been very successful.  Games like this occur maybe a dozen times a year and there are two this week.  Now, these spreads are VERY raw.  When you see tells like "lopsided wagering" "early sharp play" and "low ticket favorite" wait!!!  Likely that balances out.  It is really early on to say where those, which are "public" tells really are since the public has not engaged for the week yet.  

10 Units

West Virginia (-3) - Lee Corso special.  "Somebody Knows somethin."  I'll try to channel him.  You mean to tell me that a Virginia Tech team that is ranked 15th, looked great against North Carolina playing a West Virginia team that was a mess in College Park is an underdog of 3 points.  I don't care if its in Morgantown, that's a lot (in other words the teams are equal on a neutral field according to this line)???  Somebody knows somethin' and I am with the somebodies.  Mountaineers.  Plus, there is a suite of other tells of lopsided wagering, low ticket favorite, early sharp play and a noon home start.  All indicate early that it is a big play.

9 Units

Boise St (-4.5) - Another Lee Corso special - SKS. Ranked Oklahoma St goes to the blue turf against Boise St whose season stumbled out of the gate against UCF.  In addition, this is beyond the 3 point usual homefield so even with the blue turf bonus of another point it is high.  This one also has the same tells as VPI-WVU, lopsided betting , low ticket favorite, and solid Sharp numbers.  Just no noon start.  

(now let me address one thing - yes I see how Vegas came up with the line in each but this is not about Vegas or me, this is about the public reaction to things like "rankings")

3 units

UCF (-7) - low ticket favorite with lopsided betting

Indiana (+3.5) - early sharp play and home noon

Notre Dame (-7) - low ticket favorite and early sharp play

Wake Forest (-5) - low ticket favorite and lopsided betting

Georgia (-30.5) - low ticket favorite and lopsided betting

Penn St (-6) - low ticket favorite and early sharp play

North Carolina (-9) - low ticket favorite and early sharp play

2 units

Southern Cal (-8.5) - low ticket favorite and lopsided betting outweighs early home start

Memphis (+3.5) - lopsided wagering

Vanderbilt (+11) - lopsided wagering

Tulane (+14) - lopsided wagering

1 unit

Oklahoma (-22) - home noon start

Clemson (-28.5) - low ticket favorite

Florida (+15.5) - lopsided wagering outweighs small early sharp play

@BetFriends

I see people make this mistake all the time. This is a commonly misunderstood myth. In some instances, the books will, in fact, draw a line in the sand and if they are comfortable with their number, will gamble with their number as well. 

Yes, I don't understand your VA Tech W. Virginia bet. Boise St one I get. But you explain why VA Tech seems to be an equal team, yet you want to be on the other side of the bet because the price is too good to be true? Va Tech looks great, and if nothing else, forces a lot of sacks, interceptions, and fumbles. This game has a wide range of possible outcomes. 

Hoo, I still don't understand the low ticket count thing.  Are you talking about tickets sold to the game or betting tickets?  And either way, how does a low ticket count help one team?  And which team does it favor?  

@incognegro

 Finally someone who understands how lines are set.  Yes, much of the time there is an attempt at equal betting.  The vig is a nice return.  That is why boiling the ocean as I try to do for folks does not lead to undefeated weeks - sometimes it really is a 50-50 proposition, regardless of he numbers.  BUT incognegro is exactly right there are plenty of times that what you say is spot on.  FanDuel is an exception.  I think they go completely computerized.  While I still monitor their movements, that automated result makes them less interesting.

@PeAceMaKer7690

 If something is too good to be true.  It more often than not is.  There is no reason West Virginia should be a 3 point favorite.  Lot of documented sharp money is already coming in (or friend Patrick Everson reported it).  We shall see.  It is not 100% accurate but over the last 5 years it is 70%.  Easily the most comfortable tell out there for me personally. (of course teh west coast tell is also around 68% and we all saw how that worked out for Ohio st last week)

@Super_Chicken

Happy to answer the question.  Low number of tickets bet on the favorite.  The public traditionally likes the favorite.  Whenever that is not the case, it is a red flag that the line has been set for the oddsmakers, not the public in mind.  In addition, if line movement toward the underdog occurs, it is like reverse movement in that ticket count is low (public betting on favorite is low) and the line gets more attractive to the underdog and the books are shading you to bet that way.  Finally, can be a sign (albeit not always) that there is sharp play on the favorite and oddsmakers are simply evening out the handle (or anticipated handle) thus a good bet as well on the favorite.  Of course if the line is moving the other way with low favorite ticket count, it is an indicator.(though smaller than the favorite move) the opposite way given that oddsmakers are leaning into the favorite and possibly playing a bit of desperate catchup to a line that was set too high and has low public tickets bet for that reason, not sharp action or a predetermined opinion.  

@HooAlum

Here is the Wednesday night update.  Some movement and pullback from those early lopsided wagering lines but the big 2 of the weekend still remain.

10 Units

West Virginia (-3) -Well discussed above.  SKS, lopsided wagering, low ticket favorite, early sharp play and a noon home start.  

7 Units

Boise St (-4.5) - SKS, low ticket favorite, and solid Sharp numbers.  (FYI lopsided wagering went away and it ain't coming back) 

5 Units

Indiana (+3.5) - lopsided wagering, early sharp play and home noon

Vanderbilt (+11) - lopsided wagering, line movement and a strong over/under squeeze

4 Units

Florida (+15.5) - line movement, reverse movement, & lopsided wagering outweigh small early sharp play

3 units

Notre Dame (-7) - low ticket favorite and early sharp play

2 units

Southern Cal (-8.5) - low ticket favorite and lopsided betting outweighs early home start

Florida St (-5) - low ticket favorite with negative line movement

Memphis (+3.5) - lopsided wagering

1 unit

UCF (-7) - low ticket favorite

Oklahoma (-22) - home noon start

Georgia Tech - over/under squeeze 

Georgia (-30.5) - low ticket favorite and lopsided wagering outweigh strong over/under squeeze

Penn St (-6) - solid sharp play outweighs line movement

No Bet

Conflicting tells for 

Virginia @ North Carolina

Maryland @ Illinois

Michigan St @ Miami

Utah St @ Air Force

Tulane @ Ole Miss

@HooAlum

 Some interesting updates so though I would do midday today in case I did not get to it tonight.  Programming note :-)

I am out starting around noon Saturday on a planned trip where I am driving so unlikely to update during the day.  I will try to do my best to update Saturday morning but might miss some of the late sharp action and last second movement that can be invaluable  - off course that led to me bumping up Wisconsin over Penn St so it is not perfect.  I apologize in advance (it has done very well this year at 61% - even last week, a down week, it was 50%)

7 Units

West Virginia (-2.5) - Lost some of the tells but SKS, lopsided wagering, and noon home start outweigh line movement and the reverse augmentation on a low ticket favorite.

5 Units

Boise St (-3.5) - SKS and solid Sharp numbers outweighs line movement

4 Units

Indiana (+3.5) - lopsided wagering, early sharp play and home noon

Florida (+15) - line movement, lopsided wagering and (as you would guess given those prior 2 tells) reverse movement outweigh mild sharp action

Vanderbilt (+12.5) - lopsided wagering and strong over/under squeeze

3 units

Miami (-6) - low favorite, mild sharp action and over/under squeeze

2 units

Notre Dame (-7) - early sharp play

Florida St (+5) - low ticket favorite with negative line movement

Memphis (+3.5) - lopsided wagering

Penn St (-4.5) - Strong sharp plays outweigh negative line movement 

Arizona St (-3.5) - SKS and sharp action outweighs lopsided wagering

1 unit

UCF (-7) - low ticket favorite

Oklahoma (-22) - home noon start

Georgia Tech (+28.5) - over/under squeeze 

Washington St (+8.5) - early home start

Georgia (-31) - low ticket favorite and lopsided wagering outweigh strong over/under squeeze

San Jose St (-6.5) - low ticket favorite

No Bet

Conflicting tells for 

Virginia @ North Carolina

Maryland @ Illinois

Utah St @ Air Force

Tulane @ Ole Miss

bump for a good thread. appreciate the thoughts and effort put in 

@HooAlum

 Here is midday Friday look.  Once again, I apologize in advance for a lack of Saturday midday update as I will be on travel (trust me I would MUCH prefer to be in front of the TV for Bama-Florida, UNC-Virginia etc . . . ).  My goal is to post again tonight - this may be my last for tonight's games.  I hope they do not change (they are a "no" play and a light 1 unit play - though I could see some sharp reports come in closer to gametime given that Friday night games get attention from them but at present have no clue which way they will go). and post tomorrow mid-morning for Saturday's games.

8 Units

West Virginia (-2.5) - SKS, lopsided wagering, and noon home start & straight low ticket favorite. (line movement not there anymore) 

5 Units

Boise St (-3) - SKS and solid Sharp numbers outweighs line movement

4 Units

Indiana (+3.5) - lopsided wagering, early sharp play and home noon

Vanderbilt (+12.5) - lopsided wagering and strong over/under squeeze

3 units

Miami (-6.5) - low favorite, mild sharp action and noon start

Notre Dame (-7.5) - low ticket favorite and sharp play

Air Force  (-9) - Low ticket favorite and lopsided betting

Arizona St (-3.5) - line movement, SKS and sharp action outweighs lopsided wagering

San Jose St (-7) - line movement augments low ticket favorite

2 units

Washington St (+7.5) - early home start and line movement

Florida (+15) - line movement & reverse movement outweigh mild sharp action

Penn St (-5) - Strong sharp plays outweigh negative line movement 

1 unit

Illinois (+7.5) - blowout response

Oklahoma (-22.5) - home noon start

Georgia Tech (+28.5) - over/under squeeze 

Florida St (+4.5) - line movement

Mississippi St (+3.5) - low ticket favorite

Georgia (-31) - low ticket favorite and lopsided wagering outweigh strong over/under squeeze

No Bet

Conflicting tells for 

UCF @ Louisville

Virginia @ North Carolina

Tulane @ Ole Miss

@HooAlum

  I think MS State would be -3.5, not +3.5.  Would it still be a play at -3.5? 

@HooAlum

 Here is an update.  Both games are still in doubt for Friday as I post but sharp plays (as I predicted came in late).  I will break down now by start time for Saturday

Friday Games

3 Units

Illinois (+7) - blowout response and solid sharp play

1 Unit

Louisville (+7) - small sharp play

SATURDAY

NOON

10 Units

West Virginia (-2.5) - SKS, lopsided wagering, and noon home start & straight low ticket favorite. 

4 units

Indiana (+3.5) - lopsided wagering, early sharp play and home noon

3 units

Miami (-6.5) - low favorite, mild sharp action and noon start

1 unit

Oklahoma (-22.5) - home noon start

2:30

3 units

Notre Dame (-7.5) - low ticket favorite and sharp play

3:30

2 units

Washington St (+7.5) - early home start and line movement

Florida (+15) - line movement & reverse movement outweigh mild sharp action

1 unit

Georgia Tech (+28.5) - over/under squeeze 

Florida St (+4.5) - line movement & Low ticket favorite outweighs mild sharp play

4:00

1 unit

Mississippi St (-3.5) - low ticket favorite

7:00

1 unit

Georgia (-31) - low ticket favorite and lopsided wagering outweigh strong over/under squeeze

7:30

4 units

Virginia (+8.5) - reducing line movement augments underdog with low ticket favorite and solid sharp play

3 units

Air Force  (-9) - Low ticket favorite and lopsided betting

8:00

3 units

Vanderbilt (+12.5) - lopsided wagering and strong over/under squeeze outweighs line movement

9:00

7 Units

Boise St (-3) - SKS and strong Sharp numbers outweighs line movement

10:15

3 units

Arizona St (-3.5) - line movement, SKS and sharp action outweighs lopsided wagering

12:30am

1 unit

San Jose St (-7) - line movement 

No Bet

Conflicting tells for 

Tulane @ Ole Miss

Auburn @ Penn st

Liked both the dog plays last night.  Starting to really like WMU +14 at noon.