Opposite Public Plays

@HooAlum

 Your strategy should hold over time.  Tonight's game may be a little more difficult to read.  Looks like the line movement is going in the same direction as the public.

nicely done. what do u think of louiville total. im going under. i had florida st 1st half under. i lost that then i loaded up on live bet 2nd half over 66.5 i got the bet in literally right before notre dame touchdown. they had 66 after florida state td and 2 point conversion. i was geeting nervous even with 6 minutes left. because if florida state didnt score on the last touchdown they had it was have been nail biting watching a field goal kick

The 'public' is an intangible concept that bettors imagine they're against when their brains invent patterns in random noise.

A heavily bet favorite is a 'public' play until they cover easily; a dog is a 'sharp' play until it gets destroyed, then it's a 'trap' in hindsight. Pie charts fluctuating on TheSpread say whatever you want them to when you imagine you're outwitting some 'majority' 'sheep'.

The lines are designed to attract as close to even as possible numbers of bettors who can argue a play on either side. The books make their profit in the middle of the trade.

People who think Vegas makes its money 'trapping the fish' are, in fact, the fish. I don't know a single professional gambler who talks about the 'public' and the 'sharps' in their capping; I know heaps of casuals/amateurs who do, though.

None of which is an attack on anyone personally, just some perspective. Like the dude earlier in this thread said, focus on information, knowledge and calculated value in spreads -- don't waste time in the make-believe world of public vs books vs sharps, because that's Keno play.

Tonight's game looking Louisville .  The question is how strong.  Right now it is 4 units thanks to reverse movement and steam.  Reverse movement looks like it is here to stay but steam could pullback aggressively if the line over the next few hours goes back to 9.5-10 (it is 8.5 right now)

@HooAlum

 Agreed.  Only game on so it's where all the money is.

@HooAlum

 Is it really reverse line movement if the line went down because of the news? 

@TRAIN69

 Kiffin out with Covid.

why do people keep saying the public this and the public that.  Do all you not realize. there is no magical group called the public.  Each and every one of us is the public.  Theres sharp smart bettors then everybody else.  There isnt 3 groups  Sharps, bettors on forums and the public.  When you want to see who the public is on, go take a look in the mirror, cause we are the public

good stuff

Grind it out week that is typical as I try to be inclusive of games as people want to see the universe, at least on the P5, heavy bet level. Heavy bets did well a a whole (though late addition of WMU-Michigan = fail)

I am including a glossary of shorthand terms (and their record to date) after the overall update.  My goal is to be transparent in my thought process and analysis.  Then you can feel more comfortable deciding to follow or ignore what comes out.

Season W-L Record

13-9 (59%)

Week 1 W-L Record

11-9

Season units risked = 55

Season units won/lost = +15.3 (27.82% gain)

Weekly units risked = 48

Weekly units won/lost = +9 

Tell Performance

100% (2-0)

Pre 11am West Coast start = means a team traveling east is on early wakeup call body clock (Stanford-K State was an obvious one)

100% (2-0)

Over/under squeeze = my newest tool after a year long probationary period means the over/under is low but the spread differential is high - something usually has to give, and it is often the line

100% (1-0)

Steam - entire line jumps 1.5 points in a matter of minutes on an established spread

100% (1-0)

SKS = I call this the Lee Corso provision.  You know, "Somebody knows something (SKS) and I want to be with the somebodies."  If a line does not make common sense or cuts against reliable trends greatly, there is a reason.  And if you look at handle on these games it is NOT because they are trying to even bets out. This is the most subjective tell.

67% (18-9)

Sharp Analysis = To those that hate this, I don't care.  The stats back it up and that is what I care about.  it is a mix of measuring discordant handle to ticket counts when combined and emphasized by noted trusted reports - Patrick Everson gives excellent ones for example.

67% (4-2)

Road Noon - a weird trend in non-COVID years as oddsmakers do not properly give homefield advantage enough credit on early starts.  

60% (3-2)

anti-public - ticket count is very lopsided (most would peg this outside the 25-75% range).  The public obviously has jumped on one side and I do not want to be with the public.  That being said, heavy favorites often get the high % and it has nothing to do with a "bad" line.

50% (6-6)

line movement - weakest tell.  Lines move for a variety of reasons (even out bets on each side).  Occasionally they are trying to keep up with the sharps.  It is slightly up over years of doing this (53%).

25% (1-3)

Reverse movement.  It is the most cited tell and it really does produce.  It was an amazing 60% last year. 

25% (1-3)

low ticket favorite -  If a ticket count is low, it is a red flag.  Line movement as a note is an accelerant to this.  Slow start at 1-3 this year but it was 58% last year

Not yet used

Blowout Response - Teams coming off a blowout suffer from negative recency bias.  one note of caution.  It needs to be a competitive game thus under 10 point spread. 

CFP Blowout accelerant - Teams fighting for a top 4 playoff spot and heavily favored, typically runup the score in a more aggressive fashion.

Bye weeks - teams coming off a bye week, especially in the power 5 playing competitive games, have a good record covering. 

@HooAlum

 So when are you going to post week 2?   Nice work!  

Question on your units. Some of the games change Unit amounts. The most obvious is Louisville went from 1 to 7 to 2. I am guessing that you use the last number posted and this means you are waiting until closer to gametime to make your wagers?

@Bluenoser29

 you nailed it. I put in my own wagers 10-15 minutes before kickoff (aren't mobile apps wonderful) unless I know I have family obligations before kickoff times and then will act earlier, which was the case this weekend.  I also will sometimes rush to put in a wager if I see lines moving across the board to who I want to select, but they haven't reached everywhere yet.

I try to update throughout the week but the Louisville-Ole miss game is a great example of how you better watch as the data changes.  It did have reverse movement early that did not completely reverse itself so that was always a factor.  Thus a Louisville pick throughout the week.  The question was how much.  The early movement to Ole miss counteracted it but was wiped out when Steam entered the picture after the Kiffin news.  It then became one of the larger bets as long as the steam maintained itself on the new spread.  You'll notice I put a note of caution on chasing that one as I thought the line might resettle upward, which it did taking away most of that movement.  However, it was still a miss (maybe the worst of the weekend next to Western Michigan-Michigan), showing there is no perfect system.

I'll likely have something initial today.  Given the late end of week 1 and late beginning off week 2, it is a later start than normal.

Hey Hoo isn’t this used better with major power teams and prime time games or stand alone ones? Saturday afternoon there are so many games!!! Maybe Saturday night would show better. Have you monitored this? Thanks 

Here is the initial list of picks for the week.  Maybe as many as a dozen games will be added as more and more handle is created.

as a note, early in the week you see a lot of lopsided wagering calls (ie anti-public - let's call it "lopsided wagering" going forward since some people get their all twisted out of shape when referring to the "public.")

As the ticket and handle mature it often becomes less and less "lopsided" and that tell goes away.  That is why what survives to Saturday is a good tell.

Friday

3 units 

Kansas  (+25.5) - Over/under squeeze and lopsided wagering (you almost should ignore anti public plays with Kansas as people bet against them because we all know that they stink, not because the odds are set a particular way - however the over/under squeeze is real here so maybe the dumpster fire known as the Kansas Jayhawks are indeed a good bet . . . to cover)

Saturday

7 units

Ohio St (-14.5) - west coast early start, noon home game, line movement and low ticket favorite.  This checks a lot of boxes, Don't know if all will stay, but I will be shocked if they are not a solid play and likely the play of the week.  It might be smart to get o note train early as I see that line moving up with the Thibodeaux injury and the general feeling of goodwill about the Buckeyes playing in Columbus before a sellout crowd.  Already some books are at 15

3 units

Tennessee (+3) - noon home game and lopsided wagering

2 units

Mississippi St (+2.5) - lopsided wagering

1 unit

Notre Dame (-17) - low ticket favorite

Iowa St (-3.5) - low ticket favorite - movement is already up to 4.5 at Caesars, if you want the Cyclones grab them now

Colorado (+17) - Over/Under squeeze

Arkansas (+7) - lopsided wagering outweighs line movement

Washington (+7) - lopsided wagering outweighs line movement, you might be able to wait on this one.

Utah (-7) - low ticket favorite

No Bet

Air Force @ Navy (AFA by 6) - tells are all over the place and conflicting as lopsided wagering favors Air Force but line movement with low favorite ticket count (an accelerant to line movement) is a good tell for Navy  so they cancel each other out.  I have a feeling the Air Force tell will go away as the line matures, and we will be left with a solid Navy bet.  We just have to see.

@haymo

Yes.  Most definitely.  It is best on heavily bet games. (the system got the Bucs over KC right last year - albeit only for 1 unit).  Typically your P5 or nationally televised games will indeed get averages that make sense.  I always run my data through that lens and that is why you see my sheet list be composed almost solely of those sort of games as the handle is there to mature the betting patterns.  (also if there is lopsided betting on a low bet game - who really cares???  The House is not losing a lot of money on it even if it goes the wrong way). Occasionally you do see a non-P5 game pop with a lot of action (e.g. UTEP-New Mexico St) that requires attention.  Michigan-Western Michigan similarly came out of nowhere last weekend.  Of course, I wish I had just ignored that second one as I was flat out wrong.

However, this is not a hard fast rule.  You do need a little leeway.  The NFL is a lot tougher as tells are a lot harder to come by precisely because it is so heavily bet.  Notice Clemson-Georgia last weekend did not reveal almost anything all week.  That was easily the most heavily bet game and the initial line of 3 was intriguing and kept even bets throughout the week.  So IMO there is a happy medium but lean to the higher profile games for the reasons you are instinctually thinking.

Here is your Thursday midday update  with 8 additional games (as a note I am seeing some action on New Mexico-New Mexico St but I just do not want to include for now as I don't trust the handle yet)

Friday

1 unit 

Kansas  (+26.5) - Over/under squeeze (notice lopsided wagering tell went away from yesterday - this is often the case with that one)

UTEP (+26) - line movement

Saturday

5 units

Ohio St (-14.5) - west coast early start, noon home game, low ticket favorite.  Still my favorite pick of the weekend. Can't believe it is still at 14.5

Tennessee (+3) - noon home game, lopsided wagering, reverse movement. Lot to like for now.

3 units

Navy (+6) - negative line movement accelerates low ticket favorite along with a blowout response (notice lopsided wagering has gone away)

2 units

East Carolina (+2) - lopsided wagering and blowout response (hey first time trotting out this tell!) outweighs line movement

Mississippi St (+2) - lopsided wagering

UNLV (+34) - lopsided wagering and over/under squeeze out weighs line movement.  Think about this logically for a second.  Over Under is 54 (53.5 at FanDual and Draft Kings).  That means if UNLV scores ONLY TEN either the over hits or they cover (44-10 is the "magic" UNLV score and you still win the over at half the books and either push or cover at draftkings who has the spread at 34.5!!!!!)

Stanford - line movement and over/under squeeze

1 unit

Oklahoma St (-12.5) - low ticket favorite and home noon outweighs over/under squeeze

Notre Dame (-17) - low ticket favorite

Iowa St (-4.5) - line movement (now at 4.5 like I said it would yesterday) 

Cal (+11.5) - strong over/under squeeze outweighs line movement

Colorado (+17) - Over/Under squeeze

Miami (-8.5) - Blowout response (personally really like how this game shapes up for this tell)

Arkansas (+7) - lopsided wagering outweighs line movement (but be cautious as it may not stay lopsided)

Washington (+7) - lopsided wagering outweighs line movement, you might be able to wait on this one (see above, it will go away so this really will be Michigan for 1 unit by Saturday)

No Bet on two late night games ot pay attention to as last ditch bets

BYU @ Utah (7) - no tells

Hawaii @ Oregon St - no tells

@HooAlum

 Good luck. Thank you for posting. Very informative. 

@HooAlum

 Like the Mississippi State, Iowa State, and ECU plays.  Opposite of ND.

Where do you use to monitor your handle and ticket counts?  Thanks for sharing your knowledge! 

I’m enjoying this thanks for sharing!

@HooAlum

 Tonight's games.  I'll update UTEP-Boise if it becomes active.  If anything will likely go UTEP

2 units

Kansas (+26.5) - sharp play and over/under squeeze

No Bet

UTEP @ Boise (25.5) - line movement might trend UTEP at a later time tonight but it is not right now.