NCAAF Week 4

 

 

 

Two games in and after whooping up on inferior opponents Kansas State takes it's 57 points per game on the road to Cardinal Stadium for a Nationally televised contest against Louisville.

 

At first glance one would immediately say that Kansas State should kick the crap out of Louisville, right?  Wrong.  Beleive me when I say that putting up 45 on North Texas and 69 on Montana State amounts to nothing.  Josh Freeman has looked great against these two overmatched defenses going 34-45 and amassing 520 yards with 5 TDs and 0 picks, but c'mon it's North Texas and Montana State!  He has also put 58 yards and 4 TDs on the books with his legs, but again against North Texas and Montana State.  He has singl-handidly accounted for 9 TDs and 54 points in two games, should we even await the end of the season or just give him the Heisman now?  Look, there is no doubt that Kansas State has looked very, very impressive in their first two contest, but I personally feel that to make a team that is 7-19 ATS in their first road game of the year and I beleive 0-7 against the spread as a road favorite in the last couple years a 5.5 point favorite after whooping up on North texas and Montana State makes no sense.

 

I know that Louisville looked like crap against Kentucky, but if you look closely at the game it wasn't Louisville that looked like crap, it was the Louisville OFFENSE that was crap!  Despite 5, count 'em 5 turnovers against Kentucky, the Cardinal actually put only 5 less yards of total offense on the board in that one.  The Defense gave up 13 points on 210 total yards of offense.  They held Kentucky to 63 yards rushing on 33 attempts!  That's less than 2 yards a tote.  They followed that up byu allowing Tennessee Tech to gain only 33 yards on 22 totes!  Now I know that Tennessee Tech is like Montana State, but I throw that in there just to show that they did it two weeks in a row.

 

In my opinion, Kansas State is in for a rude awaking tonight offensively as they are about to face the best defense they have seen this year.  The question is how will they react to it?  Also, I feel that opening against Kentucky and getting hammered only to follow up with a huge offensive output against Tennessee Tech helps Louisville more than playing back to back scrub games like Kansas State has.

 

Listen, I am not trying to say that Louisville is some kind of powerhouse, or that Cantwell is some kind of quality Division I QB, nor am I saying that Kansas State is not a good team.  What I am saying is that Kansas State has to do alot more than beat up on North Texas and Montana State and Louisville has to do alot more than lose by 25 against Kentucky after 5 turnovers before I can back Kansas State on the road laying 5.5 points.

 

I could, as always, be way off on this, but I see a boatload of value in the home dog in this one tonight.