I really think Alabama is a public sand trap

[Quote: Originally Posted by jimmydafreak] Im not going to tell you what to play, but if you think Bama is a sucker bet than my recommendation would be to lay off the game entirely.  Don't just blindly bet Arky as a contrarian play.  As for me, I don't think Vegas will be making any tackles or catching any passes in this game. I have already placed a max bet on Bama. /Quote]   DA FREAK!  Amen brother! I had Bama over 23.5 first half over for the game large, and watched the game! I stated last week that there is not a team in the country that could have the number two spot and be close to the Bama team! I am thinking it is going to be hard for Bama NOT to win it all this year! I watched them, so Im a witness!!! <lol.> Very impressive! So, DFReak, vehemently concur my friend! PG   Good call too! Im riding Bama til they fall, and by falling I only mean "dont cover"! I just dont see a team that could play with this sqad! The are perfectly balanced and have speed, and are extremely talented on both sides of the ball, and should go undefeated this year! And I dont like them, and Im a Horns fan ? Good Call and BOL Jimmy ! PG   

I agree. Every week that some strange lines or games occur, posters panic and pick contrarian picks the following week to try to guess what Vegas is doing. Games aren't fixed! Does the public take a beating when a fraud gets exposed (Miami/FSU), sure they do. It has nothing to do with Vegas fixing games. Vegas makes juice. If they win the side oppo the public, then that's gravy! If you think Arkansas is for real, bet them. Don't over think it! It still comes down to 18-22 year olds and whether they handle the pressure. 

Alabama held Penn St to 3 points.

Arkansas allowed 24 to a georgia team with no AJ Green.

Saban will have D focusing on Mallet.  Alabama will not look ahead or underestimate Arkansas.  Alabam wins this game. If you don't like the points, then bet ML. Taking Arkansas is simply trying to guess an upset that isn't going to happen.  I'm not a fan of either, but I bet on Alabama alot!

This game really comes down to Alabama's ability to 'harass' 'disrupt' 'effect' - whatever you want to call it - Ryan Mallett, if not outright sack him. If Alabama does that, and controls the clock on offense by keeping him off the field, the Tide wins by double digits. WILL they do that in Saturday's game?  Entirely different question.

But if they cannot get consistent pressure and he makes them pay when they blitz - Bama's secondary, though talented, is inexperienced and they have not seen a QB anywhere close to Mallet's quality nor the receivers that Arkansas has.  In this scenario (one where Mallett is not constantly harrassed/sacked) Mallet & receivers will win most of those battles & Arkansas can stay in the game and even pull off the upset.  Fayetteville is also a great home field in these kinds of big games. 

I agree with not over-thinking this game, because I really think it comes down to this one aspect, especially when considering which team covers 7-7.5....we'll see which is the case on Saturday....

GWJTF

I like your analysis about the game, maybe because i'm an Alabama fan. But i do believe the Razorbacks will run into a wall at times throughout the game, with Mallet getting through the secondary of Alabama some setting up field goals.

Alabama already knows what to expect, the Razorbacks don't. Saban has not put everything on the playing field for film to be watched. This week i believe he will unleash some and Alabama comes out 3 TDs +.

So give us (me) a link so i can read your write-up.

Roll-Tide

Arkansas is not a much different team.  They are almost the exact same team Bama destroyed last season by 4 TDs except they have 1 more year of experience, which means they should be better.

Bama has proven pretty much everything there is to prove thus far.  They won the national championship last season, and they've dominated every team on their schedule this year covering every 1st half, 2nd half and game spread.  Not really possible to do much more than that.

Arkansas, on the other hand, beat Georgia on 3 gimme TDs on severely blown coverages.  Had it not been for that they would have lost by 2 TDs to that disaster of a football team otherwise known as the Georgia Bulldogs.  That team is a juggling act on a unicycle in rush-hour traffic, and Arkansas was extremely fortunate to escape with a road win.

Your inablility to discern the difference between a proven commodity like Alabama, and a media fiction like Arkansas will cost you money this week.

Locking in on bama!

This thread has really come upon a great question: all opinions are sought....when do you know that a line is set because of a true desire to get equal action on both sides & moved accordingly, versus when 'Vegas' or 'books' decide to take a chance on one side or another to set a 'trap' line to fleece the public (and simultaneously expose themselves to loosing $$ to sharp money/syndicates recognizing the bad line and/or the sometimes not too occasional cover of a team that shouldn't have at that particular number) versus a situation when early money comes in on a side skewing the line such at it appears to be a 'trap' instead of true movement in response to a betting anamoly? 

Unless you're in the biz...how do you know? Simply because the line is X off of yours?  How do you know?...All opinions appreciated....

GW

PS

I understand why folks want to take Bama here.  Beware.  They're going into a hornets nest this week in more ways than one...not to say they're going to lose (though it could happen) but it will be a tough, tough game between two extremely determined teams each possessing of the capability to win.....

And your inability to discern how meaningless this stat is will cost you money.