I really think Alabama is a public sand trap

Question

I expected the line to open at least at 9 or more. This just sits pretty for the public to get ruined from start to finish here as the line will move.

jwheels86 · Answer

I expected the line to open at least at 9 or more. This just sits pretty for the public to get ruined from start to finish here as the line will move.

Cover34 · Answer

Agree, Why is line so low?...

jwheels86 · Answer

Alabama hasn&#x27;t faced a real opponent at all, their best opponent was lowly PSU and they beat Kent State 24-0? thats real badI know Bama is good but this is their first test, in conference game, and on the road against the best offense in the SEC by far.

jwheels86 · Answer

The line is 7 for a reason, and it certainly cannot be to get even action opening there.

Cover34 · Answer

Agree..1st real test, but still i see bama by 14&#x2B;..mallet&#x27;s good but that deff from ark is awful

jwheels86 · Answer

Then the question of the universe is why is the line at 7 if they have no defense?

jwheels86 · Answer

I know jimmy and I are going to have to agree to disagree on this at some point this week.

boozer19 · Answer

jwheels....how long have you benn gambln my friend?

jwheels86 · Answer

Long enough to know when vegas tries to dupe everyone, like they did all this weekend.

jwheels86 · Answer

List of dupage:Cal (-2.5)Iowa (&#x2B;2)ECU (&#x2B;20) even though this one was crazy but nevertheless as I thought all along, was fools gold and stayed away.UGA (-2.5)Washington (&#x2B;3) Just wowTexas Tech (&#x2B;3)

Mr. Insight · Answer

u should add colorado -12 to 13.5 in that list of last weekend&#x27;s shady lines and public killings

RJSizzle · Answer

You dont know what you are talking about. Vegas makes their money off the juice. All lines are set to get 50/50 action. Man, that sounds so stupid when you read it back to yourself.

RJSizzle · Answer

Houston was a sick suckers line too. Its almost as if people saw it too, but then still bet on Houston. UCLA

Falcon_Hog · Answer

New to this so maybe I am wrong here but what should it be set at to get even action? I too thought it would be somewhere around two touchdowns and 10 points at a minimum.

Some of the country just watched Arkansas win in Georgia and are probably thinking--wow, getting seven points at home with an offense this good is a gift.

Others watched the game and realized how lucky Ark was to play such a flimsy D and squeak out a W. I saw three touchdown passes due to horribly blown coverage.These folks, like me, will jump on the line at only 7 because they see a train wreck for the Hogs against a Saban coached, tight defense.

Time will tell but I'll take the most physical, disciplined unit in CFB right now until shown otherwise.

Good luck either way you decide.

jimmydafreak · Answer

&#xD;&#xA;I&#x27;m not going to tell you what to play, but if you think Bama is a sucker bet than my recommendation would be to lay off the game entirely.  Don&#x27;t just blindly bet Arky as a contrarian play.  As for me, I don&#x27;t think Vegas will be making any tackles or catching any passes in this game.  I have already placed a max bet on Bama.

RJSizzle · Answer

Your first paragraph you are correct. 10 or 13 wouldve generated true even action - but thats not what books are looking for in football. Your second paragraph is crazy. Its Alabama playing, current National Champions. You have people willing to throw money at them no matter what the line - see the other thread up at the top now. You have a poster saying he would take them up to 13.5

RJSizzle · Answer

[Quote: Originally Posted by jimmydafreak]As for me, I don&#x27;t think Vegas will be making any tackles or catching any passes in this game. &#xD;&#xA;   [/Quote]Why worry about how it gets done? I read the same things from Houston backers this past weekend against &#x27;lowly&#x27; UCLA. How Vegas wasnt playing the game yaddda yaddda yadda....

jimmydafreak · Answer

[Quote: Originally Posted by jwheels86] List of dupage:&#xD;&#xA;&#xD;&#xA;Cal (-2.5)&#xD;&#xA;Iowa (&#x2B;2)&#xD;&#xA;ECU (&#x2B;20) even though this one was crazy but nevertheless as I thought all along, was fools gold and stayed away.&#xD;&#xA;UGA (-2.5)&#xD;&#xA;Washington (&#x2B;3) Just wow&#xD;&#xA;Texas Tech (&#x2B;3)&#xD;&#xA;&#xD;&#xA;[/Quote]&#xD;&#xA;I&#x27;m not sure why Texas Tech is on that list.  I was on Texas, and they seemed like the obvious play to me.  In fact, other than being the home team, I couldn&#x27;t think of a single reason to bet the Red Raiders.  I thought Texas -3 was an absolute gift.&#xD;&#xA;With all due respect, none of the teams in this list is Alabama.  Right now Bama is probably the most consistent product in all of sports betting.  Don&#x27;t argue with it - profit from it.

Falcon_Hog · Answer

You might be right sizzle. I would rather put my money on a spot where I feel I get the best team at a discount, instead of conjuring up theories about Vegas trying to steal my money by setting a sucker line to trap me and the rest of the US.

Jimmy's point is a valid one here--BAMA is a known quantity when it comes to discipline and physicality. ARK may or may not show up and light the scoreboard. Just like Houston's prolific offense you cite earlier as a sucker's bet.

I'll take the best D and the better coach every time, especially when I see value in the line. Maybe after several more years I will develop a sense of the sucker bet but at this point I am not sold.

Good luck and I look forward to learning on this site.

RJSizzle · Answer

Most people never develop it. Look at this sites results from this past weekend.

jimmydafreak · Answer

&#xD;&#xA;I would also take Bama at -13.5, and the reason I do is because they will cover it.  In fact last week I said I would LIKE Bama at anything under 2 TDs, and I would LOVE them at anything under 10.  And I do so for many reasons, not the least of which is that Arky is larely a media driven unproven commodity.  Arky is this year&#x27;s Ole Miss from last season, and this game is just like the Bama @ Ole Miss game from last season).  Ole Miss was a product of the media, not a proven commodity on the football field, and that is exactly what I said in my writeup for that game.&#xD;&#xA;For most of the Bama players that will line up to play against Arky, playing in a hostile road environment is yesterday&#x27;s news.  These guys are for the most part battle-tested road warriors.  From Bama&#x27;s standpoint, that this game is being played in Arky will have absolutely no effect on the outcome of this game whatsoever.  Bama will dismantle the Razorbacks with surgical precision on Saturday and win by at least 3 TDs.

jimmydafreak · Answer

&#xD;&#xA;Stick to your guns.  You&#x27;ll be happy you did.

jimmydafreak · Answer

&#xD;&#xA;I say again, stick to you guns, and follow me to the winners&#x27; circle.

I really think Alabama is a public sand trap

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