And your inability to discern how meaningless this stat is will cost you money.
Why? You say Saban has run just a vanilla blah defense and Mallet won't know what's coming.. what makes you think Petrino isn't doing the same thing on the offensive side of the ball?
Why? You say Saban has run just a vanilla blah defense and Mallet won't know what's coming.. what makes you think Petrino isn't doing the same thing on the offensive side of the ball?
No because you can't get sacks when the opposing QB takes 3-step drops. Mallet is an immobile 5-7 step pocket passer. Huge difference. The real question is will Petrino try to change Mallet into a 3-step quick passes west coast-style QB overnight, or will he endure the same beating he took last year taking his 5 and 7-step drops? Either way, Arkansas won't hit 20 points in this game. That augurs ill for Arky when the opposing team is very likely to score in the 40s.
Arkansas is not a much different team. They are almost the exact same team Bama destroyed last season by 4 TDs except they have 1 more year of experience, which means they should be better.
Bama has proven pretty much everything there is to prove thus far. They won the national championship last season, and they've dominated every team on their schedule this year covering every 1st half, 2nd half and game spread. Not really possible to do much more than that.
Arkansas, on the other hand, beat Georgia on 3 gimme TDs on severely blown coverages. Had it not been for that they would have lost by 2 TDs to that disaster of a football team otherwise known as the Georgia Bulldogs. That team is a juggling act on a unicycle in rush-hour traffic, and Arkansas was extremely fortunate to escape with a road win.
Your inablility to discern the difference between a proven commodity like Alabama, and a media fiction like Arkansas will cost you money this week.
You mention Arkansas is not much different from last year? And then you go about saying they are better than last year? So you just contradicted your own statement? It is obvious Arkansas is better than last year. Just like its obvious Alabama is worse (now they are still a top team). So dont think im saying Alabama isnt good. Alabama is great. But they dont have the same defense moxy that they had last year. And going on the road is going to prove to be a tough test. Bamas defense is no better than Georgias. And Arkansas just put up 31 points and 450 yards on Georgia, AT Georgia. Ryan Mallet threw for almost 400 yds and 3 TDs, and get this... he doesnt turn it over. Arkansas defense is as good if not better than Penn States. A Penn State defense that held Alabama to 24 points at home. And that was with Alabamas defense getting turn over after turnover and the offense couldnt cash in. Now its only Tuesday so im not making any picks, but the line is 7 for a reason. Arkansas will score 30, do you really see Bama scoring 45 as you predicted they win by 15 plus? Dont discount Arkansas offense. They WILL score on Bama, now can Bama score on Arkansas? Thats where I have questions. McElroy doesnt impress me much and you cant just line up and run the ball over and over again on the road against in this SEC against this Arkansas team. Should be a great game. Definate upset potential.
Trust me on this..................Bama's Defense is way better than UGA's defense. I watch all UGA games and they lack toughness, discipline, and most improtant talent (name one UGA defender that jumps out to you)........Bama has a great defense and you will not see WR's having a cup of tea 30 yards downfield with NO ONE AROUND..................No one is talking about the X factor in this game and that is NICK SABEN....It has been a long time since I've seen a team this well prepared every week. This is a solid team from top to bottom. I probably won't make a play on this game but if I do it will be on Bama.
By the way - long time reader but first time posting - thanks for letting me play!
Another thing nobody talks about re: the Razorbacks except diehard fans of the team who know: the Hogs' run game. Now I can hear the chorus already yelling "What run game?" and judging simply from the stats or just the UGA game, you would be correct to ask that. But, just as was correctly stated before in this thread about Bama not seeking specifically in their defensive strategy to record lots of "SACKS" per se (it's a nice bene, but is not the goal), and instead seeks to disrupt the opposing QB to reduce his effectiveness and/or force mistakes -- so too are Arkansas' similarly deceptive objectives with respect to their running attack.
The Hogs don't specifically seek to have 100 yd per game rushers from their tailbacks - it's a nice bene if they get that, but it isn't the goal. The GOAL is to demand sufficient respect and resources from the opposing defenses to allow enough open field for Mallet & receivers to work their magic & to mitigate against a tendency to over-blitz the QB....this is why opposing teams CAN'T be and thus far have not been overly aggressive blitzing Mallett this year.
Defenses that do not devote sufficient respect/resources to Arkansas' rushing attack make no mistake will pay a price: Ronnie Wingo, Broderick Green, and Kniles Davis absolutely can and will gash any opposing DI defenses if teams' load up too much w/ blitz packages to get to Mallett & otherwise do not play honest, assignment football on the run game.
Look for Petrino to scheme plenty of delayed draws, middle screens, slant patterns or releases to backs in the flat, in addition to design plays to DJ Williams (the best TE in the SEC if not the country) to guard against this very thing. If Bama can pressure Mallet consistently w/ their down 4, they win: pure and simple, and it won't be that close. But if not, in Fayetteville - this is a game. There will be quite a chess match in the first half along these lines - look for it.
GWJTF
You mention Arkansas is not much different from last year? And then you go about saying they are better than last year? So you just contradicted your own statement? It is obvious Arkansas is better than last year. Just like its obvious Alabama is worse (now they are still a top team). So dont think im saying Alabama isnt good. Alabama is great. But they dont have the same defense moxy that they had last year. And going on the road is going to prove to be a tough test. Bamas defense is no better than Georgias. And Arkansas just put up 31 points and 450 yards on Georgia, AT Georgia. Ryan Mallet threw for almost 400 yds and 3 TDs, and get this... he doesnt turn it over. Arkansas defense is as good if not better than Penn States. A Penn State defense that held Alabama to 24 points at home. And that was with Alabamas defense getting turn over after turnover and the offense couldnt cash in. Now its only Tuesday so im not making any picks, but the line is 7 for a reason. Arkansas will score 30, do you really see Bama scoring 45 as you predicted they win by 15 plus? Dont discount Arkansas offense. They WILL score on Bama, now can Bama score on Arkansas? Thats where I have questions. McElroy doesnt impress me much and you cant just line up and run the ball over and over again on the road against in this SEC against this Arkansas team. Should be a great game. Definate upset potential.
I didn't contridict myself at all. You are struggling with reading comprehension. Here is exactly what I said.
"Arkansas is not a much different team. They are almost the exact same team Bama destroyed last season by 4 TDs except they have 1 more year of experience, which means they should be better."
In other words, 18 of their 22 starters are the same players that played last season, but because those 18 players have another year of experience, Arkansas should be a better team than they were last year. I really shouldn't have to explain it as it was clearly articulated the first time.
Now let me see if I have this straight. You are saying that the best defense in all of college football (Alabama) is equivalent to one of the worst defenses in College football (Georgia)? Do you really expect to win money gambling on football with razor sharp analysis like this? 
And here's a news flash: Arkansas's defense is just about as bad as Georgia's. In fact they gave up 24 points to an offense that could only muster 6 against a legitimate SEC defense.
Moreover, Bama's defense is better than last year's defense going into week 4. Last year's defense gave up 24 points to VT, 14 to FIU and 7 to a pitiful North Texas team for a total of 45 points.
The fallacy of your reasoning can be summed up in this statement "It is obvious Arkansas is better than last year. Just like its obvious Alabama is worse." This statement shows why you know absolutely nothing about football, and further shows why you should not be wagering money on college football games.
Last year was the last year of Shula's walkons 0* 1* and 2* recruits. Those marginal players have now been replaced by the 2008 and 2009 #1 recruiting classes in the nation. So no it is not "obvious [that] Alabama is worse." To people who understand recruiting, talent, and the college football game, it is obvious Bama is significantly better this year. It will also be obvious on Sunday morning that the gap between Arkansas and Alabama has gotten larger - not smaller. And that, my friend, is reality. You might want to wake up to it before you lose all your money.
Why? You say Saban has run just a vanilla blah defense and Mallet won't know what's coming.. what makes you think Petrino isn't doing the same thing on the offensive side of the ball?
No because you can't get sacks when the opposing QB takes 3-step drops.
Another thing nobody talks about re: the Razorbacks except diehard fans of the team who know: the Hogs' run game. Now I can hear the chorus already yelling "What run game?" and judging simply from the stats or just the UGA game, you would be correct to ask that. But, just as was correctly stated before in this thread about Bama not seeking specifically in their defensive strategy to record lots of "SACKS" per se (it's a nice bene, but is not the goal), and instead seeks to disrupt the opposing QB to reduce his effectiveness and/or force mistakes -- so too are Arkansas' similarly deceptive objectives with respect to their running attack.
The Hogs don't specifically seek to have 100 yd per game rushers from their tailbacks - it's a nice bene if they get that, but it isn't the goal. The GOAL is to demand sufficient respect and resources from the opposing defenses to allow enough open field for Mallet & receivers to work their magic & to mitigate against a tendency to over-blitz the QB....this is why opposing teams CAN'T be and thus far have not been overly aggressive blitzing Mallett this year.
Defenses that do not devote sufficient respect/resources to Arkansas' rushing attack make no mistake will pay a price: Ronnie Wingo, Broderick Green, and Kniles Davis absolutely can and will gash any opposing DI defenses if teams' load up too much w/ blitz packages to get to Mallett & otherwise do not play honest, assignment football on the run game.
Look for Petrino to scheme plenty of delayed draws, middle screens, slant patterns or releases to backs in the flat, in addition to design plays to DJ Williams (the best TE in the SEC if not the country) to guard against this very thing. If Bama can pressure Mallet consistently w/ their down 4, they win: pure and simple, and it won't be that close. But if not, in Fayetteville - this is a game. There will be quite a chess match in the first half along these lines - look for it.
GWJTF
Very, very nice writeup!!! 
I don't think Arkansas is the right side of this game, but the points you make are right on the money. Because of Mallet's lack of mobility, Bama will do exactly what they did last year which is pin their ears back and come after him. Last year that resulted in 8 TFL's, 8 QB Hurries, and 3 sacks. Petrino will need to find a way to counter that this year against Bama's very disciplined defense.
Petrino may use a lot more 3-step drops this year to avoid a repeat of last season'd debacle, but 3-step drops are not Mallet's game. 5-7 step drops is what Mallet does best.
Well considering Bama made that mammoth offense line look like swiss cheese last year (8 TFL's, 8 QB Hurries, 3 sacks and 1 Int), I think the impetus falls upon Arkansas to prove they can stop Bama's front 7 - not the other way around. If Petrino resorts to 3-step drops (and I don't know if he will or not), then simple logic finds that he would be pretty much conceding his o-line is not up to the task.
I didn't contridict myself at all. You are struggling with reading comprehension. Here is exactly what I said.
"Arkansas is not a much different team. They are almost the exact same team Bama destroyed last season by 4 TDs except they have 1 more year of experience, which means they should be better."
In other words, 18 of their 22 starters are the same players that played last season, but because those 18 players have another year of experience, Arkansas should be a better team than they were last year. I really shouldn't have to explain it as it was clearly articulated the first time.
Now let me see if I have this straight. You are saying that the best defense in all of college football (Alabama) is equivalent to one of the worst defenses in College football (Georgia)? Do you really expect to win money gambling on football with razor sharp analysis like this? And here's a news flash: Arkansas's defense is just about as bad as Georgia's. In fact they gave up 24 points to an offense that could only muster 6 against a legitimate SEC defense.
Moreover, Bama's defense is better than last year's defense going into week 4. Last year's defense gave up 24 points to VT, 14 to FIU and 7 to a pitiful North Texas team for a total of 45 points.
The fallacy of your reasoning can be summed up in this statement "It is obvious Arkansas is better than last year. Just like its obvious Alabama is worse." This statement shows why you know absolutely nothing about football, and further shows why you should not be wagering money on college football games.
Last year was the last year of Shula's walkons 0* 1* and 2* recruits. Those marginal players have now been replaced by the 2008 and 2009 #1 recruiting classes in the nation. So no it is not "obvious [that] Alabama is worse." To people who understand recruiting, talent, and the college football game, it is obvious Bama is significantly better this year. It will also be obvious on Sunday morning that the gap between Arkansas and Alabama has gotten larger - not smaller. And that, my friend, is reality. You might want to wake up to it before you lose all your money.
We shall see. Unlike you I will never bash someone for making an opinion. I have more class than that. I said in my post I had not picked a side. Was just offering an opinion on the game. As everyone knows you are an Alabama fan so your reasoning speaks for itself. You keep refering to last year, but this isnt last year. You keep picking out stats in your favor while totally discounting ANYTHING Arkansas has going for them. But your probably right. Playing on the road.... in the SEC..... against a top 10 team..... with the best QB in the nation is a cake walk. Those are great reasons to back Bama 
We shall see. Unlike you I will never bash someone for making an opinion. I have more class than that. I said in my post I had not picked a side. Was just offering an opinion on the game. As everyone knows you are an Alabama fan so your reasoning speaks for itself. You keep refering to last year, but this isnt last year. You keep picking out stats in your favor while totally discounting ANYTHING Arkansas has going for them. But your probably right. Playing on the road.... in the SEC..... against a top 10 team..... with the best QB in the nation is a cake walk. Those are great reasons to back Bama
Which stats did I cherry-pick in Bama's favor?
All I can tell you is watch the game. If after watching Arkansas get destroyed you still have questions, I'll be here to answer them.
We shall see. Unlike you I will never bash someone for making an opinion. I have more class than that. I said in my post I had not picked a side. Was just offering an opinion on the game. As everyone knows you are an Alabama fan so your reasoning speaks for itself. You keep refering to last year, but this isnt last year. You keep picking out stats in your favor while totally discounting ANYTHING Arkansas has going for them. But your probably right. Playing on the road.... in the SEC..... against a top 10 team..... with the best QB in the nation is a cake walk. Those are great reasons to back Bama
And remember, Petrino is just an offensive master mind and Saban is defensively so that matchup is a wash. What this game comes down to is Arkansas under rated defense, verse Alabamas offense. Razorback stadium will be rocking and give Bamas offense fits at the LOS (where McElroy likes to do a lot of checking for hot routes and pass protection). The crowd will cancel this out. So "your" defense better be as good as you "think" it is. Because if not, Arkansas will score on you. "Your" pass rush means nothing if the ball is out of Mallets hands quickly. Arkansas spreads you out and gets rid of the ball on point, just like the Saints offense. They are very comparable. And your secondary isnt deep enough to contain this for four quarters. Thinking you hold Arkansas in 11-19 pt range is crazy. Arkansas averaged 40 ppg last season against SEC opponents. Home field is everything in college football.
Petrino may use a lot more 3-step drops this year to avoid a repeat of last season'd debacle, but 3-step drops are not Mallet's game. 5-7 step drops is what Mallet does best.
Well considering Bama made that mammoth offense line look like swiss cheese last year (8 TFL's, 8 QB Hurries, 3 sacks and 1 Int), I think the impetus falls upon Arkansas to prove they can stop Bama's front 7 - not the other way around. If Petrino resorts to 3-step drops (and I don't know if he will or not), then simple logic finds that he would be pretty much conceding his o-line is not up to the task.
No because you can't get sacks when the opposing QB takes 3-step drops.
You should also know that Bama didnt solely face 3 step drops in their previous games to get that sick sack total. They faced plenty of 5 and 7 steps - still no sacks.
Figured I would bring that up....
Bama will score at will against the ARK defense. The improvement in Bama's offense is far greater than the improvement in ARK's defense. Bama hung 35 on them last year and will hang 40-ish this year.
Bama's defense is softer than last year and Mallet will exploit it some. They will score about 17-ish. ARK may have "averaged" 40ppg in the SEC last year, but they averaged 7ppg against Bama last year.
The HFA should not effect McElroy or anyone else. Max capacity is somewere around 80k...there are that many people at the spring games for bama...Bama's O is experienced and poised.
The home crowd will be out of the game by the second half anyway, as Bama's systematic dismantling of their weak secondary and smashmouth campaign against the front 7 make the Hog nation wish they were back in the Big 12, a league in which they were much more suited to compete.
Take Bama and stop drinking the ARK Kool-aid.
Bama will score at will against the ARK defense. The improvement in Bama's offense is far greater than the improvement in ARK's defense. Bama hung 35 on them last year and will hang 40-ish this year.
Bama's defense is softer than last year and Mallet will exploit it some. They will score about 17-ish. ARK may have "averaged" 40ppg in the SEC last year, but they averaged 7ppg against Bama last year.
The HFA should not effect McElroy or anyone else. Max capacity is somewere around 80k...there are that many people at the spring games for bama...Bama's O is experienced and poised.
The home crowd will be out of the game by the second half anyway, as Bama's systematic dismantling of their weak secondary and smashmouth campaign against the front 7 make the Hog nation wish they were back in the Big 12, a league in which they were much more suited to compete.
Take Bama and stop drinking the ARK Kool-aid.
One thing I do know is that Alabama's D had everything to do with how many points ARK scored...7. That's how many points the great Ryan Mallet was able to put up on Bama last year. Maybe they double it or triple it... they still lose. The reason??? Ark's D is the same from last year with one more year experience. Are we supposed to believe that they are all of a sudden an SEC caliber defense... I highly doubt it. A ROOKIE QB drove the feild on them last week (without AJ Green) for crist's sake!
And don't be so harsh. Fans are supposed to smack talk a little. That's what I am, I am a fan (aka Alabama homer). But I do know Bama football and Bama will win by at least 10pts.
I know what it is, Bama made Tebow cry 
and you're pissed at them... I get it.
I'm out fellas. Jimmydafreak... I'm with you on this. Can't wait for the ful write up.
I love how your so optimistic though. Your secondary may be one of the worst in the SEC and you face the best passing offense in football Saturday. Good luck
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