COUNTDOWN

12 days / 4 hours boys ........ 

you're puttin too much PRESSURE on my old azz Winners ......

Think I'll post a few here - maybe start a week 1 thread later (8/30-31)

      * games where lines will only go the other way (IMO) - all extra small - (0.5 units or so) unless stated otherwise 

FLORIDA STATE +3  

  >> bad line / bad spot for LSU - totally starting over on both sides of the ball - total reversal in coaching style / philosophy - fresh off a blazing 11-12 record the L2Y - led by the great Jayden Daniels learning a new O......  Criminoles in 3rd year of HC - casual glance says they stink - closer inspection reveals they're much better (probably) and should compete very well here. They have a scrimmage week 0 vs Duquesne - and a BYE after this one. Should be a super ugly / low scoring game - line should, and probably will be closer to P.  LSU should be a team to play later in the year.                                                     

@CravinMorehead

 Razorbacks got a good squad.See if they can win some more close games.Huge wins over A&M and Miss St.

MICHIGAN ST  -19

  * 0.75 units

W Michigan ain't gonna be able to move the ball here - IF QB and great WR (2nd rd) were back - sure. Sparty is tough vs the run (WM strength) / weak vs the pass (WM QB has hardly played at all - whomever wins job).  Line is lower because of the WM road win over Pitt LY - but if you notice their history - Broncos always get destroyed in this spot, opening road P5 game (USC off PJ energy notwithstanding). FRIDAY nite game - Broncos roll in with probably THE nations worst ST. I would look to fade Sparty later maybe - but they have a great HC, and a lot of confidence/momentum, and shouldn't slip here - as match-up is very favorable.     

@bookieassassin

 Im just a happier person when fall CFB and NFL is here.SEC West is gonna be a battle.Hard to believe the National Champion doesnt come out of SEC, but Oklahoma, Oregeon, Ohio St might have something to say about that.

Ohio State yes... I don't see Oregon in the conversation for the CFP at the end of the year. Oklahoma is a wild card; lots of turnover and a new scheme all around but plenty of talent and an easy schedule.

@bookieassassin

Didn't play FSU yet but yeah I mean talk about season and program "were back" course setter with a side of coach's ass saving type of game for the Noles vs a "we gotta figure out who the hell we are and what the hell we can do before conf starts" game for LSU .. expect multiple QB's and gotta stretch that depth out in every unsure unit at some point this is a real good test to get the what do we even got (or don't got) questions out of the way .. We know Tigers talented DL and WRs could just force in a couple more big plays and maybe turn the game but advantage in readiness should be the Noles and we know they can run the ball and pretty much all their WTF struggles LY came w Milton, offense was much more capable w Travis at the helm LY .. 

Just have to listen to you on Mich State I was leaning that way but haven't heard much commentary on them yet .. talk about program that's steamin in the right direction .. def not old sparty that just slow play a lead and then potentially botch games vs weaker opponents .. Sparty can definitely outpace its power rating by beating up and covering on the 2 little guys than thrashing a rebuilding Wash on the road before Minny .. Thinking Wash def gets better over the course of the year so that game pans out right maybe set up a couple kills for us .. 

Good luck buddy!

Added to Sparty - before it goes up ....

PENN ST. -3

more later

TERPS  -21

I am looking into this one. I love early season home dog battles like this matchup.

@bookieassassin

 Has LSU named a starter at QB?  When I watched the spring game, LSU was auditioning 4 players including the transfer from ASU, Jalen Daniels.  None of them looked that great but it was only the spring game.  

Curious if a starter has been named.

Nope - Daniels or Nussmeier ...Brennan gone

Good to see you posting, BA!  Took a flyer with you on that FSU play.  I'd make it around PK.  Small play, but I'm in at +3.5 -115.

Here's to a great season!  

Checking out MyBookie this year ...1H / ML / props already up

adding

DUCKS  +10 1H

BA

@TRAIN69

  Why’s that?? Lol 

adding 

NW / Neb  1H under 24'

I think NW competes here - a homer / bounceback HUNCH play (love NW). A low scoring game is a certainty if so - weird venue too so an UGLY 1H is what I'm looking for .....NW always bounces back after a bad year, tho LY they were (really) bad. Huskers with a brand new O - won 56-7 LY (35-7 at the half).  I'll probably be on NW at 14 if it goes up.

that damn MyBookie has 2H lines up .....

yep I don't like that Franklin vs Brohm matchup just a whole lot ha....

forgot about my own thread .....

Penn St - both these teams play better on the B10 road. Despite the losses, PSU has a very tough back 7 on D - Purdue can't run AT ALL. Boilers lose too much, and overachieved LY - so I expect a slight drop off - lose all receivers, including Bell - DC Lambert (huge) and that bad azz DE Karlaftis. PSU is actually pretty good with a healthy Clifford - a hunch that they'll be much improved. Usually fast starters as well - they should win and cover here.

Terps - great disparity in returning production - Terps #40 / Buffs #106. Great spot for Maryland here, they usually kill these teams in this spot under Locksley (early NC). Buffalo has little returning, loves to give up chunk plays on D (a Terp specialty on O), and is a terrible road team - should get murdered here - Terps only : @ Charlotte > SMU 

thanks boys ........... 

Sparty -19  (1.25 units) 

Fla St +3   (0.5)
TERPS -21 (0.75)
Penn St -3 (0.75)
Ducks +10 1H (0.25)
NW/Neb 1H under 24'  (0.25)

forgot about these sites ....

 https://www.bcftoys.com/

 https://collegefootballdata.com/exporter/stats/season/advanced

https://www.sharpcollegefootball.com/beta-rank

NEVER listened to podcasts before - checking a few out this year (more time in the car/sitting on my azz)

    >> was surprised, these 2 are really good 

Action Network - BBOC 

    * Collin Wilson is a very knowledgeable guy - Stuckey slightly annoying and talking into a $2 mic / talks way too much - but objective/reliable/ data based info

  
Bet the Board - Payne Insider/ Todd Fuhrman

  * love this one - never heard of this Payne guy, but he's an absolute machine - advanced analytics on teams and key players - totally objective and ZERO nonsense - and speaks clearly / better than most any broadcaster. TF is really good too - kinda sets things up for Payne (like Stuckey (should) do for CW. They push their sponsors,  but he never mentions his service or website even. 

BTW - newsletters are up at those 2 sites I mentioned in links - VSIN has a really comprehensive preview. Not hard to find.  

Great stuff as always BA

cash them tickets this season 

Great stuff as always every year!

I was a homer looking at Might Colorado state line and I'm thinking how can't Michigan cover 4 tuddies.  Backups won't show a drop off especially on offense.   

Rams got a ton of transfers with new coach.   I just can't see rams staying in this for 4 quarters at anything less than 5 tuddies.  

Anyways I love the Mich State play.  I think they are gonna be really good.  Maybe top 10 good.   

What's this talk at Nebraska camp about the QB being coached up by Tommy Frazier?  Supposedly getting hype

@bookieassassin

Sharp college football's youtube previews are a good listen ... gives you the model breakdown, his is a much better breakdown than models usually give us, plus some non model things to think about, coordinator/personnel changes, etc .. 

mtp - hope all is well buddy .....

I have a poor feel for Michigan - seems they often do the opposite of what I expect .....  CSU HC brings many of his players from Nevada, including QB - so transition might be a bit faster than thought? Harbaugh doesn't seem to take these non-conference games too seriously - but they've done well in this spot (opening day at home as big favorite). Too many changes for me to back early - but not a bad idea.

Nebraska has too many voices on that O - not sure how that's gonna go - they might slaughter NW, or get their azz beat.

Thanks Bridge - I assume Rob Bowron, and not Warren Sharp - will check it out ....

I need a ONE STOP - go to -  advanced analytics site - curses to Bill C for leaving SB Nation...