BRIDGE PRE-SSN 2025

G5 NATTY TALK

Couple more interesting ones ..

MAC

Toledo has that BIG opener vs Kentucky and they MUST steal some media attention and feels like they must go 13-0 MAC champs to have a shot here .. I suspect Calzada is not a bad QB for UK and I think the dream probably dies off the bat .. they were basically in this spot last year beating Miss State but bulldogs were total bulldog sh!t last year and I don't think UK is on that level of stink .. they were also in this position 2 years ago .. total choke job week 1 vs Illinois shoulda won .. then ran the table on their schedule but lost in the champ game .. lost their bowl gm .. too many ways to lose this one.

Buffalo at 40-1 .. very similar boat gotta beat Minnesota and very managable schedule .. Best bet for them is playing a co-undefeated Toledo team in the playoff and beating them .. The problem is if its not that exact scenario then you probably need Boise and at least 1 or 2 other contenders to get knocked out .. Toledo faces a tough spot on the schedule going @Wash State .. feels like decent chance Toledo won't totally come thru .. playoff gatekeepers fiending for ratings almost certainly look for a reason to leave a MAC team out .. Feels like Toledo at 30-1 and Buffalo at least 50-1 are the odds I'd want to play it ..

Ohio at 35-1 also too small but 2 winnable P4 games you can lose to ohio state and still gotta make a run .. feels like we'd want 50 or 60-1 there .. 

CUSA 

Liberty plays no P4 team and their best resume builder is vs JMU .. rest of the schedule is major dog sh!t and must beat JMU then go on the road to beat a very capable ODU team .. Virginia state pride says ODU will be off a bye and looking to kill this team .. JMU/ODU are very very dangerous spots with minimal spotlight upside outside of Lib still has a shot being undefeated .. 11-1 no thanks .. Can't see anyone else in this conf having a chance by mid ssn .. 

SUN BELT

JMU 13-1 .. Love the Dukes and imagine the attitude within the program is playoffs is where they belong, they have the media clout baked in if they go on a run and Sluka big year would be a big hit very easy sell to the playoff committee .. going for their first SUN BELT Champ Belt and along the way they could look like the team .. best bet is beat louisville but a loss along the way they still risk losing ground to another team .. the schedule is not easy but they can 100% get there I wouldn't fault anyone for takin it .. 13-1 could make it beating Ville and Boise can't tough ND .. but man that's a tall order .. and tough to get the inside track without that happening

Texas State 18-1 I don't hate the roster but they lost SO MUCH of last yrs team and they were very inconsistent .. go B2B @UTSA, @ASU .. later go JMU @ULL @SMiss .. finale vs So Bama .. every team in the sun belt looking to give them a goodbye punch .. Might need to beat JMU twice .. 18-1 is a bad bet IMO .. 

ULL .. 25-1 .. another pass .. beat Missouri is tough to imagine .. but still might end up needing to beat JMU twice .. also hard to imagine .. 

ODU 66-1 .. Most fun long shot .. I can't attest to them as a team but they are always better than expected and don't need to beat Indy IMO .. the problem is you lose there you need to go 11-1 @VT, LIB, @JMU @G.So .. they need to be 100% geared into this year no clue if they are close but would be really impressive and not impossible .. 

G5 PLAYOFF TALK

MTN WEST

The interesting part here is Boise is probably going to be the strongest contender with very few teams taking the inside track .. there is an issue for the Broncos in that even going 11-1 you still can't tank to ND or you probably cede the inside track to another contender that can beat a much more beatable P4 team .. recall Army last year absolutely woulda been a great candidate if Boise got tripped up .. Losing MASSIVELY to ND nearly pushed them behind UNLV and Memphis .. if UNLV beat Boise they'd have launched to the top spot easily .. Just saying there's a flaw in the Boise 1 loss logic here because I don't see a UNLV type team in the MW to pad their resume with .. Boise is also off a real peak season losing Jeanty the straw stirring the entire offense .. Tough  @SFLA .. @AF .. UNLV .. @SDSU (maybe!) .. Colo State .. App State .. lotta landmines on the schedule .. above that Boise leaving for the PAC gets them 4 'GOODBYE PUNCH' teams playing them for the final time as conf foes .. @AF .. and 3 in a row .. NM, UNLV, @NEV .. trip to Reno actually sounds like a dangerous spot.. and right after that stretch Boise gets ALL 4 of their new PAC12 Comrades to end the season .. Fresno @SDSU, Colo St and @Utah St .. None of them are changing conferences trying to be the little punk brother to those guys .. Its a schedule with NO QUIT on it and you got that ND game and App State.. Start the year in the heat @S.Florida .. I think really really good chance Boise is not the playoff team this year .. Boise not make it -300 I'd rather play that then Boise 2-1..  RSW at 9.5 even with the massive juice informs us this is not close to a sure thing and the win total likely not baking in all of the nuance of how much heat they're gunna get this year aside from almost certainly being worse overall than last year .. 

G5 PLAYOFF

SJSU 60-1 (ESPN)

Gunna lose to Texas and then need to run the table .. good news is this table is runnable and we're gunna rely a little on Phil Steele noting that we have a 3-phase improvement on the Spartans' offense / Defense and SP-Teams .. The tough part is they don't play heads up in reg ssn and if Boise and SJSU are 11-1 I I'd imagine Boise gets the HFA tiebreaker by being ahead in the CFP rankings .. And even with 2 losses you gotta wonder if the rankers will rank Boise ahead of a 1 loss SJSU .. Boise is the better ratings draw and they'll know they have the keys to possibly gift the broncos home field for the champ game and very tough for SJ to show up there and win IMO .. still .. SJSU's MW Champ Odds are 7.5-1 and playoff is 8X that number .. I suspect these odds will come down to 35x or so .. quite a discrepancy considering to win the 7.5-1 conf future they'll almost certainly have to kick Boise out of the playoff driver seat .. true they will need to win a string of games along the way but one way or another feel like its long odds for a pretty decent shot with good team and an offense that can jump onto media radar screens quick with Navy Ken at the helm .. 

G5 PLAYOFF TALK .. 

AAC

Memphis - really do like the idea of these guys taking the G5 spot .. But 8-1 feels like a bad bet you'd much rather just go 6-1 for the conference as that's one of the hurdles to grab the playoff spot .. 6-1 maybe not a bad deal I just can't say for sure how good the roster is and the odds are basically saying great shot to make the champ game and probably a fav if they do .. Memphis does get Arkansas at home and Hogs go on the road to face the Tigers off a roadie @Ole Miss and have Notre Dame on the other side of that.. one of the best setups in the G5 to take down a high quality resume building opponent.. however they were also in this spot last year taking out FSU in a similar UGLY spot and Memp was at one time looking like a strong contender next to Boise .. then lost @Navy the following game and @UTSA .. didn't matter they THUMP'D Tulane they were out of the conf race by then and nobody remembered they beat FSU anyway for obvious reasons .. 10-2 season and playoff poof-b-gone .. no doubt going for it again this year but no Henny this year and I think they will beat Ark in the horror show spot but even still there's just no real sure thing certainty at QB right now and it means they can def lose at a random point in their conf schedule .. They def have a schedule to make the champ game and possibly be in the driver seat playoff ranking-wise .. we're hoping so and that they face UTSA our 25-1 CFP and 8.5-1 Conf pick who can steal that thunder over championship weekend and catapult into the playoff .. 

Tulane 8-1 I think has alot of problems their schedule is so nasty and think they likely lose to both Duke and Ole Miss .. 2+ losses and best P4 win vs NU is not gunna cut it .. even if they pull another p4 win they'll be on thin ice and nothing easy lotta tough games in a row .. 2.75-1 to win the conference compared to 6-1 for memphis and both at 8-1 for the playoff .. Memphis def has the better potential playoff path IMO but at some pt just take em to win the conf .. I might do that actually, maybe in -ssn after a loss .. 

Most of the others you're better off just taking them to win the conference IMO .. ECU 25-1 conf vs 60-1 playoff .. eh .. N.Texas 22-1 Conf 50-1 playoff .. no .. FAU 100-1 Conf and also 100-1 Playoff at ESPN .. lol c'mon guys .... S.Fla 7.5-1 conf 35-1 playoff is really the only reasonable odds diff worth considering .. they gotta beat Boise and prob beat Miami or Florida or be very very competitive in both .. and then win the rest of their games finish 10-2 then win the conf .. very tough hard to see them have a 3rd loss and get in at some point the committee will forget they beat boise and Boise could just leap frog them again .. so no thx on S.FLA .. 

Happy with UTSA 25-1 not making any other CFP plays outta this conf .. Good Luck!

BRIDGE ROUNDUP .. ITS FILLIN UUUP 

BRIDGE PLAYS
UTAH / UCLA OVER 49.5
S.CAROLINA / VA TECH +9.5
NEBRASKA / CINCINNATI +7
MINNESOTA / BUFFALO +18.5
TENN / GEORGIA -5.5 WK3
OREGON / PENN STATE -4 WK5
OLE MISS / GEORGIA -9.5 WK8

SMALLER
TULANE / NWESTERN +7
KANSAS / FRESNO +14.5
MICH / OKLA -1.5 WK2
LSU / FLORIDA +7 WK3
UGA / FLORIDA +9.5 WK10
ALABAMA / LSU +6.5 WK11

FUN BETS
VA TECH ML/O45.5 +600
HAWAII ML / O52.5 +661
MICH -34.5 / U51.5 +407
PENN.ST -45.5 / U59.5 +466
MIZZ.ST +32.5 / O57.5 +320

SEASON WINS
PITT OVER 5.5 -150
TULSA OVER 2.5 -180
SO MISS OVER 4.5 -115
MISSOURI OVER 7.5 +130
NWESTERN OVER 3.5 -140
S.DIEGO ST OVER 4.5 -110
JAMES MAD OVER 7.5 -120
MARSHALL UNDER 5.5 -115
TENNESSEE UNDER 8.5 +100
S.CAROLINA UNDER 7.5 -110
KENT STATE UNDER 2.5 -120
TULANE UNDER 8.5 -110
BYU UNDER 8.5 -157

CONF FUTURES
PITT 80-1
UTSA 8.5-1 
BAYLOR 9-1
TULSA 300-1
SO MISS 24-1
MISSOURI 50-1
VIRGINIA 200-1
CINCINNATI 40-1
SAN DIEGO ST 60-1

HEISMAN
DEVON DAMPIER 100-1
BEHREN MORTON 300-1
BLAKE HORVATH 500-1

MAKE PLAYOFF
UTSA 25-1
SJSU 60-1
SO.MISS 100-1
SAN DIEGO ST 60-1

FUN STUFF

WIN 6+ GMS PARLAY
SDSU, SMISS, VANDY, AF 18.3-1
TULSA, VANDY, SMISS, UVA, PITT 73-1

CONF CHAMP PARLAY
LIB, BOISE, UTSA, PSU 97-1
LIB, BOISE, JMU 22-1

Great Prep work Bridge!

I like a number of your plays.   One that brought me pause was Cinci in week 1 over Nebraska ATS.   Nebraska seems to find creative ways to lose games.  I think this game is in Kansas City, which would imply a quasi home field for Nebraska.   I would think Nebraska would be very motivated to to start off the season with a convincing win over a somewhat depleted but well coached Bearcats squad that is expected to finish in the bottom third of the Big 12.  And I would think Neb would have an advantage at QB.  Thus I am leaning Nebraska -6.5.    I would appreciate your rationale for backing Cinci ATS.   If you have already posted it in this string, please let me know.   I wish you a successful college football season!  

@LonghornHoosier

I made that in tandem with Cincy B12 Conference Championship play another play I'd imagine you'll love lol .. check the writin up for that one too but I'll reiterate a few high notes for how I'm seein Cincy this year .. I agree on the location this was supposed to be played at Cincy and they moved to Indy then moved to Huskers back yard .. fingers xx'd a little bit theyre are actually some cincy fans .. Cincy might have blown a shot at a big competitive win for a little extra money .. pathetic .. its a little scary of a play for that reason alone, shoulda kept the game at Cincy and the kinda thing where you look back on the season and if Cincy loses a close one and are left 1 win away from a major milestone then I'd applaud them exterminating the backstabbin moneygrubbin vermin out their athletic dept .. same at Arkansas every year you look at their schedule and say OMG you scheduled THEM??? .. IN THAT SPOT?!???! .. did it again this year .. B2B radies into @Memphis is the meat of a MONSTER GAME SANDWICH .. just begging for another G5 loss, not a wonder why they can't get their feet under em ..  

Anyway Neb has been so hit n miss in recent years early in seasons easy team to land as a little overrated by the books .. took down UTEP big LY .. barely covered needed final drive w all the super backups .. and for so many years squashed smaller easy bugs in openers but the bigger teams recently Minny, NU, ILL BYU were ATS losses so on the one hand the books might be lending us a little value .. Hard to imagine they're lending Cincy considering the venue and Neb has a general upward trajectory expected .. nobody likes Cincy since they moved to the B12.. 

The big buy sign for me w Neb is when they make a real move in the portal .. Good core class of true Sophs, added the Soph Mizzoo DE .. But we see they lost quite a few guys to the NFL and Portal some major dudes .. Some guys in the door but it doesn't look like a team really taking their shot this year spending big bucks .. very tough to reload all of what they lost while still developing the class that's gunna be the core of the BIG year which I expect we see next year .. They def have the talent on the roster and hope at some point they look like 'next year is the big year' team .. hopefully after week 1 lol .. So tendency to be overvalued early on and just unlikely we're running into a massively upgraded BRICK WALL week 1 are a couple things to consider w the Huskers ..  

@LonghornHoosier

Cont'd cincy talk .. 

As far as Cincy goes you can peep the write up but big picture quite a few good indicators for improvement which are kinda easy for models to overlook .. think they improve in all 3 phases based on the roster breakout guys last year coming back .. Injury-wise they had 2 proj starters OFY last year on the DL .. AND Don Corleone had a really serious situation pre-ssn, he played but it was a pretty down year for him, the DL wasn't good .. lot back and feels like DL and LB improve dramatically .. part of the bad LY was a new DC w a 3-3 install last yr .. can't quantify the impact but just intuitively I'd expect the team to be better coached into the scheme and enough guys returning on the back end w a few xfers in I don't think they'll be a liability and could be pretty good .. SpTms stunk LY they got a good K/P this year .. I like the returning QB Sorsby good dual threat and big improvement from '23 to LY with not the greatest team .. RB unit I like w Walker and 2 more w strong potential and a few prospects beyond that .. lose a few goods at OL but some reason to think they can be coached into a decent unit lotta good PFF ratings last year not just from the starers.. OL and WR are the questions . they do have a MAJOR weapon in Joe Royer at TE so prob don't need tons of help at WR to make the rec tgts a dangerous group overall but we'll see, couple big breakout WR's would be a big help I think  .. 

Books seem to agree w me too SP+ RSW adding up to ~5 but you see them open 6.5 hasn't moved.. It's juiced heavy under 6.5 I'm sure they'd love us to lay that, I'm prob an OVER player at 6.. Phil's most improved list I think they look like a big improver we'll see if they are .. The kicker to play em in conf is I like the schedule setup where a team w multiple improvement indicators could find themselves hanging around late in the year, catch alot of teams in tough spots, no byes before them all year, got one tough roadie to Utah, one tricky road spot @OK.State I think is the other one .. catch quite a few at home in I think good spots .. big picture though you have a wild league where the bad teams were good the good teams stunk last year. I took ASU last yr really just because of wide variance league and just no chance they weren't improved .. I like Baylor this year expected improvement for sure .. Cincy same thing 60-1 longshot I think they can at least eek their way in w a little luck .. I would say if there's a truly HIGH CEILING in Texas Tech .. can't take 4-1 conf but I did hit #Barron4Heisman 300x and I think their natty odds could at least allow us to eek out a decent payday if the LARGE MASS of high performance individuals can it together as a team, potential is massive, wide variance 6-6 meltdown or 13-0 lookin dangerous first round bye playoff team wouldn't surprise me w them .. 

NATTY

TEXAS TECH 175-1 (BM)

Of all the B12 teams this is the one with the highest ceiling .. very wide variance where they could show up at year end .. 6-6 meltdown the BIG MONEY roster just isin't performing with the incentives offered .. they don't gel as a team .. too many individuals .. etc etc .. But B12 has no sure thing roadblocks preventing a 13-0 conf champ run its a rigmarole for sure a real grind .. T-Tech did get unlucky w 3 tough roadies .. but 4-1 for the conf and if they land in the playoffs I think decent chance they get a first round home game .. you can still get it thee 160x which is the best odds I found .. lotta places tap out at 100-1 think FAN has 120x which is okay .. We start having some fun with this play if they can make the playoff looking dangerous and they bought some pretty dangerous dudes so .. maybe DOUBLE BANGER and man o man great chance to 300x the fun if they can lock n load a monster year seeing we have our #BEHREN4HEISMAN play prob lookin good if we ever get this play into a good position .. 

It's really not dissimilar to what we did last year with SMU 500-1 we knew the spot in the playoff landed horribly @PSU and we ended with a decent cash out / hedge option of a few units profit which was taken thru some bets on PSU to win / in-game etc .. If SMU coulda made the 2nd round we'd have had a bonanza on the cash out /hedge option .. very close to a monster banger .. hard to imagine T-Tech actually winning the natty so finding a payday seems like the angle we gotta take and I think they could be in that spot .. first round game in Lubbock could make them a fav .. home teams did very well week 1 of CFP and the final 4 were all teams playing in that play-in week .. if we land a first round bye no prob love that too .. all I got here .. playing the high potential ceiling .. wing and a prayer maybe but odds say take a stab .. Good luck!

A "Spidy Senses" point of view on Neb vs Cinci.

Without tearing deep into both rosters the 1st inclination is;

1 Oooooo, grab that -6.5 before it gets to 7 or more. Then the second inclination;

2. Wait a minute, it's almost July 1 and it's still at -6.5 (DK)

Seems a line sitting at -6.5 is begging for fav play. Not that the books get it right all the time but it's not moving yet. 

Clemson sure is getting a lot of flowers for backing into a playoff spot and hanging around @Texas.

Look at these lookahead lines 

-3.5 vs LSU

-8.5 @ Ga Tech (our boiz)

-5.5 @ Lville

-16.5 vs FSU

-4.5 @ USCe

I'm not particularly high on Louisville, FSU or South Carolina. But I think we've got a bolster to the Clemson power ranking that I'm not sure I see even with the returning production. It's not like LSU is gonna show up and wither against the developed 4 stars. What's your read on this? I see this as different than OSU juggernaut returning everyone last year (and Michigan grit style team before them), or even PSU who really only lost to top 5 teams, closely.

I'm thinking they could get clipped early. Will look hard at that +3.5 pending some LSU investigation and I think Georgia tech will roll Colorado and be live (edit: all over Tech -3.5 vs Colorado.. hate the key number but I think there is too much firepower). 

@UNIMAN

I cant remember but feel like it was one of those very very early openers on Fan and was at 7.5 but could be mistaken .. yeah I thought same thing off the bat like Cincy stinks Neb all the way ... I can't say they won't run into a brick wall here Neb maybe well positioned to breakout this yr lotta talent on the roster .. I'm just saying Cincy looks better and maybe legit scrappy team not one I'd blindly hand a free TD to .. but still might have the value sucked out SP+ is +9 neutral and if we're thinking defacto Neb edge with the fans / proximity then you'd think Cincy +11.5 or so .. but went the other way .. books still offering a great deal vs SP+ on that game and the 6.5 RSW under if Cincy stinks as we're used to they maybe eek out 5 .. So yeah might be over my ski's making them a Bridge Play but feels every year I get in this habit of finding teams I kinda like pre-ssn and puss out playing em because the line wasn't big enough .. fingers xx'd I got the right read .. books got their fingers xx'd for me too I can imagine the money is drawing heavily to the huskers at -6.5 .. 

@JozKnows

I see the ACC as having a good number of teams solid, good, scrappy capable .. I'm peggin BC as a team that can throw a punch leaving me with likely just 3 bad eggs in Stan Cal and Wake out of 17 .. As for Clem we'll see if they are head n shoulders above the ACC but if not lotta punches thrown around the conf this yr ..

As for those games yeah I'm gunna pick my spots later I wanna see how they put it together on the field first but certainly profiles as a team with a major ceiling the DL could be like Mich last year taking things over .. no prob taking 3.5 w LSU but I'm not in a rush to play it .. but yeah not ready to jump head first in front of a potential freight train with all the GOY plays ..  Would have considered laying -4.5 vs S.Car if it was in the early noncon slate, final week GOY no thx .. 

Just saw this…

Jake Retzlaff has reportedly told BYU teammates, staff he plans to transfer Sean Walker, KSL.com

Posted - Jun. 29, 2025 @ 3:53 PM

BYU quarterback Jake Retzlaff (12) watches as a play unfolds during the opening day of BYU football spring camp held at the Zions Bank Practice Fields of the Student Athlete Building on the campus of Brigham Young University in Provo on Thursday, Feb. 27, 2025.

(Isaac Hale, Deseret News)

KEY TAKEAWAYS

• Jake Retzlaff plans to transfer from BYU, informing teammates and staff.
• Retzlaff faces a civil lawsuit alleging
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@Bridge1

 This is wise. I'll probably consider LSU week 1 and see how it shakes out. I buried my actual play in that post. I'm already sunk into it but what do you think about Georgia tech -3.5 vs Colorado?

Wise as in WiseGuy that I knew way back when...of Las Vegas?  If so, great to see you posting...I like Indiana, Nebraska, TCU, and Georgia Tech as leans ATS in week 1...Ga Tech playing at elevation...and Coach Sanders will have the home crowd fired up...I have bet against the Buffs ATS a few times since that joker arrived on campus, and for the most part I have lost...Playing devils advocate...here...Haynes King was a highly regard recruit when he signed with Fisher and TAMU...CU has the transfer from Liberty and a highly regard fish QB.   Will it be plug and play, or will there be growing pains in week 1 for CU.   King had a great year at GT last year...

@LonghornHoosier

On a few of these as well.

Nebraska -6.5  I just don't see how UC can compete in the trenches. I see a low scoring 24-10 type game here. 

GT -3.5  Going with the veteran QB and O-line in week 1 is normally a great idea especially against a gimmick team who lost their two star players. 

Interested in your thoughts on TCU vs NC. I haven't looked into this one yet.  

@LonghornHoosier

 Can't claim to be Wiseguy, sorry, just was using the word "wise" on Bridges Clemson comment 

FWIW I am also on TCU and took that ML much lower, -120. Earlier in the thread I posted above 6.5 on their RSW, they would be burdened not to win against this clownshow at Carolina... Who will be buttomed up, have a good transfer QB, but... Are they really gonna jump in and stop a legit air raid week 1? That would be Billy magic. 

Ga Tech - Colorado has beefed up the trench but I think the replacement levels at QB/WR that essentially carried the team are not there. Tech may improve on D, though losing DC was tough. Again I think they will control clock and have too much on offense between King, Haynes, Rutherford and the O Line for Colorado. 

Colorado is going to expose the weaker Gtch secondary.  
CU is going to give the appearance that nothing has changed with this win but in fact thinks have changed and the overvalue at 9-4 last season will show itself. 

All those mediocre opponents last year and nice lines will take down a CU team still with holes big time at linebacker and running back.  

CU still possesses an improved offensive/ defensive lines. 

Yes CU lost 2 big time players but the 2 biggest losses will be both starting linebackers Bentley and Hill-Green.  Those guys esp Hill-Green to Alabama.  

Pkaying a much harder schedule this season with lesser linebackers? See if they have issues stopping the run. 

Even with Marshall Faulk coaching the RB’s there isn’t a lot of depth in the RB room.  They got an undersized guy transferred in From Incarnate Word. He should be good.  Size and durability always an issue.  Dallas Haden hag leg and injury issues last season and Mican Welsh wasn’t given many opportunities last year.  

I think as far as the running game goes, when teams run the ball a lot.  The lineman pick up clues and tendencies from not only their team mates but the other team as well.  The offensive line is brand new again and they might be behind the 8 ball until they start gaining success and momentum.  It’s going to be a brand new offensive focus?  Growing pains coming then.  

With lack of depth at linebacker and Running back injuries can be an issue.  Keep on top of these positions because if this does happen a WR could have to run the ball and an undersized secondary player might have to sub in at linebacker. 

https://youtu.be/kSy-HTwED-Q?si=aVRbJSyeREWTUCa-

As far as Nebraska 7-6 year last season but something like 35-55 since 2017. The portal and talent will of course make a difference but in game 1 laying a TD or close? Cincy folding up after a win vs playoff team ASU.   Cincy won that game.  

The way I see it this line should be -3 because the way Cincy finished last season has added a few points to this line.  Yes I have don’t the past data searches on teams that finished the previous season excellent terribly.  The data on the home dogs after finishing so poorly is real good if the home dog line is less than 10. 

I am waiting to take an alternate spread for GT. I want them -10.5. 

I personally think this is a blowout and GT wins by 20+.

@spottie2935 / 

@JozKnows

Yeah the GT D as a whole has to be looked at closely .. of course we all know what's to like there on offense and how they control the ball and such .. -3.5 or so was the opener I don't think the move here is to lay toooo too many on the road big home game elevation etc unless you can put a pin on where the D is and its better than projected .. 

GT's DL is maybe not as stout / back end .. Phil's got the units pegged #74 and #44 respectively .. #44 secondary would be a big improvement Phil had em #100 LY so should be a solid climb up the PDR (lol).. DC Santucci was under Elko at TAMU then his DC at Duke got them in a great spot, came to GT one year even w poor secondary felt like they were at least on the bubble of being a good D and helped in some of their wins .. hurt them in losses .. but still a huuuuge jump from where they were in '23, he's off to do LB's w the Ravens they don't just take anybody .. Texas Safeties guy can coach walk ons into all americans so could be in good hands there .. 

Huge keeping buster at OC turned them into a machine with the run game and just alot of ways to move the ball, very few QBs you trust with the ball in their hands, King is one of em .. RB group is very good .. they lose the really really good game changing dude WR but still have some guys in the unit ..

TE had a really great duo Avery Boyd / Jackson Hawes they were both productive receivers every game 500 yds total, Hawes one also one of the best blk TE's got him 5th round to the Bills that's significant losses, easy to overlook ..

OL Phil had em #13th pre-ssn unit last year really eyebrow raising prediction PFF credits them w only 3 of the 6 reg ssn sacks LY and only team to get'em twice was ND, King was out that gm they lost 3 very strong pro grade OL's, the two guards remaining are very good both guards .. same OL coach same Run coord from LY .. I'd have expected Phil to give the OL the benefit of the doubt with his OL unit ranking after such a big bold call last year and one he can hang his hat on .. #46 OL in the mag this year is not what I'd have expected given the 2 decent OL's return and proven coaches can coach em up, got a run game and QB that picks up the slack in a major way makes the OL look real good .. so that's another surprise .. going from sure shot proven 5 OL returning with good blocking TE's LY to lot of uncertainty must be heavily weighting down this unit ranking, but uncertainty doesn't mean bad for sure lot going for them still .. I'd def wanna know this unit is in good shape before layin points on the road week 1 tho, same for TE .. we're just expecting GT to be long driving grinding out first downs constantly successful the blocking is gunna be so key and very tough to be as good again, its the main reason I didn't jump on them at like the 15x conf odds its gotta be a sure thing for King to work the magic .. 

^^^ GT/Colo talk .. cont'd .. 

As for the Buffs I'm not well versed on them I know some of the commentary in the bet-o-sphere and lot being made out of Prime's situation which maybe can be interp'd that his mind is not really geared into the team w out his 2 or 3 sons there and health issue just won't be effective this season .. its a risk for sure .. we've seen coach situations not go well in the past and Prime's best attribute is motivating his guys to play like stars .. we also know he will churn a roster into the ground trying to find guys that can play and clearly rubbed some guys the wrong way trying to revamp the roster .. but nobody can say he didn't revive a massive dud team that was in the ground dead n buried for many years .. now .. what happens after the big year .. it feels like they could normalize quickly but still wayyyy ahead of where they were and be playing for another big turnaround next year .. I'd want to know more of his issue, if the players heads aren't in the game or not feelin it I'd be worried for their season .. big money big social media = egos can get too big and jealousy follows, won't take much to turn a locker room on itself if players have issues with other players or coaches etc .. all that said I don't know all the issues or if they're real or kinda made up narratives we've kinda heard already and prob will every year he's at CU lol ..  

Run game issues were so bad LY .. but better OL this time?.. are we throwing the towel in on Salter because Lib had a sorta predictable down year ?.. recall Salt behind worse offense / OL last year and ankle injury really hurt his game .. if he had the big LIB year last year the markets wouldn't be turning on CU like they have I don't think .. IDK the run game sitch but horrible again idk we'll see but in the right offense when he's on he's on .. FIRE .. very tough to bring down can make some great plays .... Phil projects the true fr to play .. that's a surprise and think it gives us a floor for where the unit is assuming Salter isin't a dud in practice or has some other issues going .. 

It probably is game over for the offense for this ssn if they can't get a run game going .. but they did produce in a few games, its unclear to me that GT's front will lock them down .. possible boomerang in lower sack numbers with a much more mobile QB, Salt went off schedule plenty but was magic finding ways out of trouble and also design run QB you can draw it up for him and trust to pick up yards (when healthy) .. just extremely one dimensional LY to maybe very dynamic if things can click .. too much uncertainty there and all over the place for both teams and for this spot generally big BIIIIG home opener so if you got -3.5 then I'd say good call ahead of the market for sure .. but yeah nothing I'm dying to lay points against right now .. too many questions for both teams and some seem unknowable until we see them play .. 

My only real take here is if one team goes APE on the other with a big surprise monster win it could just be a big misnomer, wouldn't clear a runway in the power ratings and move up / down right away we have 2 teams I think well outside top 25 for now, CU very high level uncertainty, GT has some too .. would be easy to over/under value either of them after a big early game like this .. good game plan / catching the other tm off guard / turnovers could make things turn lobsided easily, I'd rather find a better opp to play or fade them after this game .. good luck!

^^ Buffs note .. 

Last thing there .. we have a MONTH LONG PORTAL WINDOW opening on Monday .. wtf .. you know how prime rolls w the portal .. wouldnt shock me if the garbage truck backs up and we see quite a few guys leave .. if we see that again markets will eat this team up .. but gotta know if he's dumping 10 pieces of garbage and getting a couple pieces of gold in this cycle .. market always frowns on the mass exodus teams and maybe this cycle is not all garbage player losses, something to watch closely becasue think its fair to say at this point Buffs have come out on top or at least better'd their roster overall to this point when clearing out the clutter .. to this point that wasn't all that hard to do lol .. just another reason to wait n watch IMO .. 

@robtri

Yeeep .. ole Jake is movin on .. can we bank under 8.5 now do you think?! .. Jake was clearly the best option for a 9+ win season although this happened with enough time to prep one of the other QB's to take over think this issue was on the radar thru spring and they like Bachmirer and the other guy and it would be a reason for the team to rally "let's go win the natty it for jake guys" .. "yeahhhh!!!" .. that said I do like our position .. might take a bite if we saw RSW over 6 for not absurd odds but its settled 6.5 and odds over so doubt we'll get there .. cheers