BRIDGE PRE-SSN 2025

^^^ NU / USC NOTE .. 

I have to note for USC that NU shows up in a really crowded spot for them .. @ILL, MICH, BYE, @ND, BYE, @NEB, .. NU .. IOWA, @OREG, UCLA .. They have a couple bye weeks and casual observer says NU looks like a free lunch in the middle of some HEAVY action. Welp, Trojans may very well be cookin up n eatin cat week 11 but there ain't no free lunch on the menu .. Cats will be off their a bye w Mich on deck a seemingly not bad ATS spot for them potentially with USC so busy with so many MAJOR teams. But way wayyy more to this spot than meets the eye.

To know this spot is to know the story of how BRIDGE and CFB met .. it starts in 1995 quarter mile or so from Dyche Stadium and the perennial MAJOR dog turd Wildcats flipping the switch into the most improbable Cinderella team of destiny in history and maybe still to this day.. Coach Barnett with Darnell Autry, Steve Schnur, Brian Musso, D'wayne Bates, FITZ was the heart n soul and the FOUNDATION recruited 4 years ago when Barnett showed up in '92. NU's identity had been of notorious LONG losing streaks, 24 yrs of losing seasons, hadn't won their conf since 1936 and no rosebowl since 1949. Biggest losers in CFB. All changed in 1995 when a new identity formed under most unfortunate circumstances with teammate Marcell Price killed a week before training camp, accidental shooting. Many players made the trip to attend his funeral in Nashville and BIG SIX patches memorialized Price on the jersey that year and was the tie to bind the Purple Pride IDENTITY .. Cats went on the most improbable run 10-1 Reg SSN, 8-0 B10 CHAMPS taking down ranked teams ND, Michigan, Wisco and Penn State along the way.. Early loss to a nobody Miami OH came after the big week 1 win vs ND in south bend. And that actually was key because from then on they left no doubt and fell for no down spot.. "Purple Fever" took over all of Chicagoland the little flags on cars everywhere, hanging on doorsteps on every block and sellout crowds. Cats clinched first Rose Bowl in 47 years when Tim Biakabituka rattled off 313 yds rushing to beat OSU in THE GAME.. greatest year in NU history BY FAR ....

1/1/96 Rose Bowl I remember it like Rose remembers the Titanic.. the flowers had just been picked, fresh, vibrant on the parade floats .. the captains march to mid field for the special coin toss helmets gleaned even on a fairly smaller old TV's set in an airport bar. A little luck with a plane delay was a welcome announcement .. Cats were stunned early down 24-7 in Q2 before Autry led the guttiest of comebacks taking one in for the lead early in Q4 up 32-31.. edge of my seat whole time .. but it wasn't meant to be .. #1 overall NFL draft pick Keyshawn Johnson's 216 yards stole the show while Captain Fitz looked on, injured vs Iowa late in the reg ssn .. It was the purest display of CFB Magic the kind money grubbin butt munching executives have steadily been sucking out of the game .. It's a rematch 30 years in the making and I got this spot CIRCLED, STARRED, TARGETED AND MARKED FOR REDRUM REVENGE OFF A BYE WEEK INTO LA, USC BUSY WITH THE BIG BOYS .. Won't be lost on anyone at NU what "USC WEEK" means for CAT NATION this year so .... "TRUST ME .. THEY'RE SHOWIN UP" .. - BRIDGE

BRIDGE PLAY

OREGON / PENN STATE -4 (BOL)

We get this week 5 and the spot is spot on for PSU lead in with Nevada, FIU, FCS Nova and a bye week before a Conf Champ Revenge Home WHITE OUT .. so much to say about how important this is for the Nittanys just a step or two behind the big boys on their best years and further behind often and while the whole paterno saga has blown over some time ago it does kinda feel like theres a curse brought on by that with the next coach that cant win big games .. not gunna dwell on it but 1-14 vs top 5 opponents the last / lone win was in 2016 vs OSU and won out from there beat Wisco in the b10 champ game 11-2 .... only to get passed over by the playoff committee for .. Ohio State lol .. then Buckeyes get DRUBBED 31-ZIP by Clemson you just can't make it up!! .. I mean if the world renowned football experts on the playoff committee knew the nitneys were in for a decades long top 5 opponent drought and that OSU would tank bad in the playoffs then gotta think they'd give PSU the nod there .. Gotta Beat Michigan guys they were ranked #6 should be right in their wheelhouse lol .. We did end up getting that cool BLOCK SIX highlight which was key to locking James Franklin into his first big extension.. Nitney fans have seen it from every angle for 10 years and its high time for a 2nd big highlight to add to the reel ..  What I'm saying is man you don't win this game in this spot like bankrupt the school if you have a big buy out just get that guy outta there lol sheesh.

PSU struggling with the WR position for years now and couldn't have been more apparent when a game they seemed to be on top of in the playoff to make the natty for the storybook demon exorcising shot the WR's don't come up w a single reception and for no other reason they blew a game they were winning and shoulda won. They paid top dollar for a new WR unit, RB tandem is tops in CFB, tough to go wrong w their OL, replacing THE VIKING at TE 1200 receiving 250 rush, never seen it before but TE unit is stocked up too. Defense has some questions replacing abdul carter there's no certainty there. Can't even moneyball it and replace him in the aggregate. But plenty of dudes on D and stealing Jim Knowles was a major coup. It was yr 3 at OK.ST and yr 2 at OSU before they became elite. PSU needs the belts to all click right away, and some concern PSU don't play nobody leading into this one. EPIC clash of the best OC Stein vs the best DC Knowles both top of CFB in their trade. I do like the PSU OC very innovative w Tyler Warren.. just hope the pass game can be a multi-trick pony this year.

Ducks breaking in a new QB before this showdown and have 3 P4 opponents, nothing super strong but F around trying to be coy and they might find out the hard way. Dante Moore is almost for sure not a 5 star but Ducks hitched to him if he's starting week 1, real wild move if they changed QB's after that. HUGE concern is WR, lost 2 stars in Tez Johnson and Traeshon Holden. Evan Stewart was the STEP UP DUDE and he's probably OFY from a spring injury. BIG questions for the WR unit, plenty of MAJOR TALENT .. plenty of soph breakout potential, stud true FR. Malik Benson from FSU 300 yds, Justus Lowe 200 yds last yr must take the lead for this unit to thrive.

Oregon D looks unbelievably stacked up, DL needs a couple to step up but everywhere else has the sure thing star or stars the quality backups the breakout sophs and stud true fr, they're gunna have plenty to work with .. If there's a BIG CONCERN its that PSU hasn't figured out how to pass yet and Ducks D just gets the best of em and OMG if that happens lol ..

Buckin the horrific trend and taking BIG GAME JAMES to win (another) BIG GAME.. It all comes together like Man, Moment, Machine .. Franklin makes it 2-14 .. lol sheesh.

This is Penn State's year to get the title under Franklin.

A small fun fact;

Throwing out the 2020 COVID season Penn State has covered ATS the last eight meetings with Maryland (2016-19, 2021-24). Seven of the eight meetings were covered by at least 10 points over the spread, six of the eight contests covered by 20 or more points over the spread. 2021 game was covered by 7.

Since 2018 it was a must play for me. In hindsight should have looked for alternate higher spreads. 

This year Maryland is not on Penn St's schedule. 

@UNIMAN

Yeah Penn state took MD and Mich took Rutgers to be their wippin boy .. 

@UNIMAN

 There is a rich history there from Maryland not honoring Franklin coach-in-waiting, to Maryland refusing to shake hands and getting a penalty at coin toss in Franklin's first year (a Terp win). Don't forget last year Locksley got pissed at Franklin running it up and Franklin responded by saying Locks was running cover 0 with starters in. 

If it were close, it would be a rivalry lol

@Bridge1

 Had the same thought. This is THE SPOT. Basically the same offense ran for 300 on the Ducks last year, sans WRs. PSU lost playing from behind, unable to handle Tez, and some bad turnovers. Also Tom Allen was in over his head in this "surprise" game. Ducks were lights out with Gabriel and the speed game on the track.

The question is which of those things can be repeated? I think you're onto it, though I'd love -3. 

Michigan and Rutgers is like an every other year thing. Last eight vs Penn St the Wolv's are 6-2 SU, 7-1 ATS, with three blowouts. 

I knew there was some bad blood between the two, couldn't remember what. Thanks.

2nd Franklin yr Terps out rushed Lions by a ton and lost by 1. After that Franklin owned them and the schedule seemed to workout for the spread as either Maryland was coming off of trouncing non-cons, Purdue, or it was last game of the season. Books were way off.

SEASON WINS

SAN DIEGO STATE OVER 4.5 -110 (MGM)

CONF FUTURES

SAN DIEGO STATE 60-1 (ESPN)

Aztecs are off a sure thing expected terrible year in '24, they'd taken multiple steps backward under Brady Hoke as a team and especially in conference .. throw out 4-4 covid year they had a 10 year bowl streak came to an end in '23 going 4-8 .. they sent Hoke out a winner in the Fresno finale but writing on the wall for '24 lot of xfers Maiden trying his hand in the pros declaring a year early .. Sean Lewis coming in installing Aztec Fast with true FR QB .. Danny O'Neil didn't have terrible stats 63% 12-6 .. but 31 sacks there and overall 95 TFL's ~8/gm tied with FSU for 5th worst in CFB .. Kent, Cal, Stan, S.Miss only worst, some stinky company .. The D was set back at the start going from their LONG TIME 3-3 schemes to 4-2 and typically that would leave a team with fewer quality DL's and it did here .. they were not particularly good ever vs the pass but we didn't see how bad that actually was because they got MOWED over on the ground .. thin units to start and injuries hampered what was already a bad team making lots of adjustments.

O'Neill is off to Wisco where he'll be totally out of his element if he's forced in there..  but in SD the QB spot looks potentially promising .. Not tons of info from Spring but the QB leader is pretty athletic decently rated Jayden Denegal xfer from Mich and Bert Emanuel from CMU and if Lewis can reconfigure some of his offense to take advantage of the athletic run abilities he'll have some weapons at QB .. we know Bert wasn't a great passer but Denegal could be .. also got a peek at JP Mialovski and he looked like a college QB playing in HS, strong future potential and wouldn't actually be too worried if he takes over at some point this yr .. Denegal is reportedly QB1 so at least can play and potential as a gamer in the offense is there. Emanuel we know can win a game if needed. For 4.5 wins that's not a bad profile to have.

RB lost a good one in Marq Cooper but better unit with the Coastal xfer Washington, Cal's Cardwell could be a breakout year for him, Lucky Sutton is projected starter not a bad unit on paper .. WR we have one sure thing solid in Napier, Bostic coulda helped at Iowa before injuries, TAMU saw action but very minimal not quite on that level .. last chance U time could be a breakout. 4 rates sophs incl Jerry McClure was a 4 star so likely some breakout potential .. TE iffy, if one breaks out this yr that would be a big help. OL sitch is much better like 8 guys into camp last year slim pickins inexperience .. Now we got 2 full yr starters and a half a year starter 3 more over 100 reps, 3 more with minor action, 3 247 rated sophs to compete with and lot of OL's have multi year playing experience.. going from 8 to 12 or so now and thats before you dip into true FR.. the injured guys are back competing with guys who filled in and prospects .. nice potential to bounce back and at a spot where they REALLY need it.

^^ SDSU CONT'D .. 

Defense similar thing going from very little exp to now experience runs deep in each units, they have 10 guys playing significant snaps over multiple years, got quite a few good and decent PFF ratings .. no unit looks like sure thing trouble in terms of experience or depth, CB might be very good, DE has a sure thing superstar in Trey White, surprised they kept him around w 13 sacks. New DC from Idaho did great in the FCS level .. great profile for a BIG turnaround and way beyond what we'd want to necessitate a 5 win season..

Also got a solid kicker 13/14 LY and 3rd tm AA FCS punter xfers in .. SDSU has a loooong history of playing good ST's very much their identity as a program and that got lost on them last 2 yrs with a notable dip in their ST rankings .. but the key parts are there for a big improvement and a ton of unsung ST players return too tacklers, blockers n such, lot to work with.. a 3-phase turnaround wouldn't surprise me.. 

Schedule has plenty of targets we get FCS Stony B, @N.Ill is a little tricky w conf on deck but NILLY one of the lowest ret pros and lost key coordinators.. @Nevada, Wyoming, @Hawaii .. Finale @NM is sneaky tough spot if we're needing a 5th win but at a min this sets up as SDSU potentially favored to give us some hedge protection if needed.. I'm not banking on us needing that one though. The tough stuff is not unwinnable and lot of em at home. They do go @Wash St @Fresno but home stints vs Cal, Colo St, SJSU .. we can call Boise a sure thing loss for any RSW analysis .. The couple tricky spots are vs the worst competition but decent set up vs the toughies. And Cal is in a tough spot after big Minny home game / BC on deck .. Wash St could struggle a bit this yr, major overhaul year for them .. I wouldn't call the MW mid section beyond boise all that solid, Fres probably needs to find itself again I like their future prospects w the coaches but it may not be there this yr... SJSU loses the two very good WR's and may not be put together this yr .. their run game stunk, run D was hit and miss, their pass D was awesome but 21 picks lost to grad/xfer, some legit dudes gone from what they were known for on D could be a tricky year 2 there ..

Think SDSU is pretty buttoned up as a roster, like the prospects of Lewis getting more from the O year 2, like the DC hire, schedule sets up well, competition is iffy and models put their rating in the ground grossly underrated IMO putting them at 4.5 wins here .. And can't predict if they have a BIG RUN in them but Lewis has shocked the MAC in pretty short order.. Had Colorado shockin early @TCU as 3TD dogs to the natty runner up so give Lewis some time and lighting can strike .. If Aztecs O can turn this year then lot of other 'likes' we can add up where we might see SDSU sneak into the MW Champ Game .. its a loooong way from that but you compare Wyoming's 5.5 RSW and look at their schedule just no doubt which one you'd rather have to make a run in the MW this yr... I grabbed em at 60 and think there's some 40's out there .. shop around because the likely end is playing the champ game @Boise and probably massive underdogs and a hedge could be a deflating experience. So def get the best number if tailing that totally ridiculous absurd Bridge Special..  

Michigan OC on Denegal in winter of 2024; "The big thing about Denny is he’s so big. He’s gonna thrive in live situations, breaking tackles like a Ben Roethlisberger type"

@UNIMAN

 This is true. Buttttttt ... Michigan knew their plays in 3 of them

It does add to the Franklin big game narrative for sure, regardless. 

Yeah, that's a black eye Michigan has to live with. Am sure all teams try to get the signals but that wolv asst. went over the top and didn't even try hard to cover his tracks. 

Always wondered how a guy could steal the play call, get it to the DC who then signals the defensive change before the ball is snapped? Or even if the DC was trained to read the call need to be pretty damn fast. Watched the 2023 game on dvr. Allar had wristband with plays on it. 

@UNIMAN

Ha yeah that guy had a whole operation and turned an art into a science lol .. Agree it was against the rules .. tampering is against the rules .. NIL money to play football for a team is too .. faking injuries is not allowed..  Maybe once they saw teams innovate to hide their signals they shoulda acted like mmm 15+ years ago we see teams using the giant cryptic picture boards .. i recall one team had their assistant coaches standing behind a bunch of shower curtains doing hand signals lol .. I mean at what point did it cross the rule makers' minds to try the radio thing?... only when the best in the sign stealin biz got caught ?.. welp .. I can't shame anyone for tampering .. can't shame anyone for injury flopping, even lane who makes it a point to say its defacto part of the rules so change the rules .. I can't shame NIL collectives for doing pay for play .. I def can't shame anyone who was trying to to get the drop on what the other team's signs were .. 

I don't why teams don't all go to wristbands with a number assigned to a play. You can get a hundred or more plays on a wristband. The bread and butter plays used repeatedly would have several different numbers assigned to the same play. And then you could have several different wristbands per game. Say wristbands A, B, C, D. Change them by quarter or series, each with different number for same play. And change them by game. DC would have a sheet for each wristband to syncronize.

No more giant signs, three different people flapping their elbows. 

Just hold up a number. 

Should have said I don't why teams didn't all go....

I like the Buckeyes rushing to the line of scrimmage, forcing the defense to be in position and ready, and then looking to the sideline for the play. Gives the coaches up in the booth time to see the D's alignment and personel before calling in the play.

BRIDGE ROUNDUP 6/22

BRIDGE PLAYS
UTAH / UCLA OVER 49.5
S.CAROLINA / VA TECH +9.5
MINNESOTA / BUFFALO +18.5
TENN / GEORGIA -5.5 WK3
OREGON / PENN STATE -4 WK5

SMALLER
TULANE / NWESTERN +7
KANSAS / FRESNO +14.5
MICH / OKLA -1.5 WK2
LSU / FLORIDA +7 WK3
UGA / FLORIDA +9.5 WK10
ALABAMA / LSU +6.5 WK11

FUN BETS
VA TECH ML/O45.5 +600
HAWAII ML / O52.5 +661
MICH -34.5 / U51.5 +407
PENN.ST -45.5 / U59.5 +466
MIZZ.ST +32.5 / O57.5 +320

SEASON WINS
PITT OVER 5.5 -150
TULSA OVER 2.5 -180
SO MISS OVER 4.5 -115
MISSOURI OVER 7.5 +130
NWESTERN OVER 3.5 -140
S.DIEGO ST OVER 4.5 -110
JAMES MAD OVER 7.5 -120
MARSHALL UNDER 5.5 -115
TENNESSEE UNDER 8.5 +100
S.CAROLINA UNDER 7.5 -110
KENT STATE UNDER 2.5 -120
TULANE UNDER 8.5 -110
BYU UNDER 8.5 -157

CONF FUTURES
PITT 80-1
UTSA 8.5-1 
BAYLOR 9-1
TULSA 300-1 
MISSOURI 50-1
VIRGINIA 200-1
SAN DIEGO ST 60-1

HEISMAN
DEVON DAMPIER 100-1
BEHREN MORTON 300-1
BLAKE HORVATH 500-1

SEASON FUN STUFF

WIN 6 GAMES PARLAY
SDSU, SMISS, VANDY, AF 18.3-1
TULSA, VANDY, SMISS, UVA, PITT 73-1

CONF CHAMP PARLAY
LIB, BOISE, UTSA, PSU 97-1
LIB, BOISE, JMU 22-1

CONF FUTURES

SOUTHERN MISS 24-1

Late to the party here thought about it at 40-1 when it came out and someone beat me to it early on .. been hovering in that 18ish range lately but local had 24-1 so took a stab at it .. 20-1 seems the optimal number and might have fun at a lower number too .. but for sure we missed out on the best stuff.. it happens. 

I like alot of the parts we'll see if they can take OL's from all over and whip em together but there's alot to like with the ammo they have coming in here and pretty manageable schedule especially if we think some parts of the SUN BELT are not so sunny this year .. Sun still does divisions so the key competition is beating or getting around ULL and Texas State to make the champ game .. the good part is both of them drew JMU in cross division play so Dukes might do us a big favor although that might be a double edged sword in the champ game .. the other nice thing is while SMISS goes @ULL they catch them right after playing their big JMU matchup .. and they catch Bobcats in a NASTAAAY spot playing JMU then going @ULL then @S.Miss .. Texas State is not a 'whose who' of exciting players this year its a bit more of a 'whose that' .. but their rep as a quality SUN team is driving their ratings way up and good to catch them in the nasty spot .. very possible JMU plows the road for us and maybe just need to split our toughest stuff .. possible they can win though .. @SO Bama might be trouble and also drew @G.Southern yeah could be trouble there too but like the roster and the good spots to play the tough teams IMO..

Not much to dislike about the team overall.. got good coaches, Marsh QB Braylon Braxton .. RB has some upstarts from bigger programs that could be very solid Matt Jones from Ole Miss can do more than flop around this yr .. WR looks great could end up being best group in the belt and best of the bunch maybe Micah Davis who had no real production at Ole Miss LY but is a sure thing dude and gives em a quality KR/PR great get for them .. OL is promising but it's gotta gel quick .. NT look promising with a good tandem Phil notes Bro Lewis as a 3rd tm all con as their backup, was not sure if he'd have help but his preview had the JC xfer as the starter so gotta like that .. and very good duo of DE's from Marsh xferred in .. LB is a little X your fingers but the secondary may end up being the best in THE BELT .. I knew 3 were quality but Phil notes that Huff has said their NB Ian Foster was "the best player on the team" so wow that's a nice surprise ..  Just too much to like to leave em off the card this year . 

I did pop JMU early on when I did the RSW OVER 7.5 for them .. Took them 4-1 for the conf think they're the best of the bunch .. But we always need 2 in there and JMU is not without some questions at a few positions .. we're obvi fawning over them getting Sluka and having quality backup QB who started for em last year and was pretty good .. they have a huuuge RB group and will be very tough to stop on the ground .. Gotta like JMU's chances and hope we end up with both sides of the coin on championship weekend .. once again!!!

BRIDGE PLAY

OLE MISS / GEORGIA -9.5 (BOL)

Another UGA game of the year BP spot .. Really like the turnaround potential for UGA this year .. QB is still a question but gotta believe if they weren't sure Gun Stock was the guy then no need to waste a season taking other xfers they'd find a QB in short order .. Guy played pretty well after being thrust into the champ game and wasn't great vs Texas but had some pretty solid shots downfield and kept his team in it .. UGA last year was dealing with all sorts of problems on offense they lost maybe the best TE in CFB history and an all world WR in McConkey .. those guys don't grow on trees and we saw when they were out UGA had been vulnerable when one or both were out of the lineup .. Last year the OL was projected tops in CFB or close to and injuries and underperformance hampered them .. they tried numerous guys at that left tackle spot where consequently ND's guy got the strip sack and TD that more/less sealed that game .. at RB I believe both Robinson RB's injured pre-ssn .. Andrew Paul had left to J-VILLE State .. Etienne only 8 games last year .. Nate Frazier did okay for them but solid pre-ssn unit got blasted .. top 2 RB's barely over 1k total .. WR Colbie Young the big xfer from Miami got hurt just 5 games, RaRa was OFY pre-ssn for the usual legal problems .. Oscar Delp and Yurosek combined for 350 yds only .. Beck was threw 12 picks vs 6 the year before .. Can't judge em too hard for injuries and depth issues in a year they were thin to begin with .. Lot of injured guys back competing with the backup/fill ins from LY plus lotta good xfer picks .. They have the recruits coming up too and roster looks like them taking another legit stab at holding onto that perennial natty contender status .. Defense needs guys to step up but there's talent and experienced .. Kirby gets alot of young guys in there in mop up duty and just a TON of big potential dudes ready to roll this yr on D .. 

Ole Miss looks like a team that missed their BIG SHOT last year .. breaking in a soph QB who sounds pretty good .. they did get some WR's in the door as usual but they had MAJOR DUDES in their last year .. lotta xfer OL's have to gel .. RB situation needs multiple to step up .. Defense was really good last year and the MAJOR firepower is mostly gone the real NFL gamechanger dudes .. surprised they couldn't get to the playoffs because LY's team was maybe the best quality roster Rebs ever had .. I don't see the D stepping up to replace what they lost, they have some good but lost quite a few GREATS .. 52 sacks and under 3 yds / carry in conf play is champ level D and now I got concerns at every position as to where the unit will rank in the SEC when all's said n done .. DE / SAF / CB in particular .. DT maybe steps up .. LB has the best chance .. it just doesn't add up to where they're being ranked right now IMO on either side of the ball .. Just a guess but like SCAR/TENN feels like mid-way thru the year we'll be seeing quite a few new faces trying to step up from the quality FR/Soph classes ..

This game in particular feels like major payback time Ole Miss straight up B!!!!TCH SLAPPED UGA in Oxford last year going +150 yards +4 sacks +2 TO's held em to 59 yds rushing under 2/carry .. 28-10 massive win for Lane coulda been bigger kicking 5 field goals incl one in the last minute .. Austin Simmons only TD for Ole Miss is def ready to go this year .. But maaan Kirby gott'em between the hedges with by far the better roster top to bottom and they ain't forgettin what happened last year .. 

CONF FUTURES

CINCINNATI 40-1 (ESPN)

Unlikely we're still at 40 there but should find 35x around town and think its a good price for a B12 longshot .. SP+ rates them as THE WORST B12 team and don't fret we've done pretty well with those lately lol .. I calc 5 wins even from SP+ odds and books worldwide say 6.5 taking some +odds.. def begging you to lay the juice and go under .. I suggest not doing that .. 

Lot to like on this team with Sorsby in his 2nd year with Satterfield and he's a legit dual threat with decent pass abilities .. RB unit has 1 sure thing in Walker and 2 potential breakout stars Pryor got hurt at OSU a few yrs back and never got back in the 2-deep but got him and Covey did well in limited action .. a few more prospects .. WR needs some guys to step up they got xfers in and prospects but we're fingers xx'd on the unit a bit .. the backstop though is TE Joe Royer is a legit NFL TE total weapon and won't take much production out wide to make this a dangerous group of targets .. OL had good PFF grades all over last starters / backups, they lose 3 good ones but and I just expect these guys to form a unit with the couple ret starters and decent group of step up prospects .. Offense needs some help but the big breakout potential is there.

Defense its 2nd year of their 3-3 install w the DC and despite the DL getting hit with injuries pre-ssn they did okay .. expecting better all around with the familiarity but also get 2 DL starters back .. Corleone had a pretty down year .. bloodclots problems pressn held him out of camp entirely, surgery couldn't work out lotta pain .. still played but this is the NFL showcase year .. they also add some potential stars the DL is a real potential B12 KILLER unit .. and everything else looks decent they don't lose too much and in good shape still in the spots they lost guys we liked .. 

ST stunk last year they get a good ST Coord was at ULL when they were great and coached up stars at every spot he's been .. they get a new K from Charlotte 11/11 FG's last year .. all con punter you just expect better all around and if so its a nice edge when needing to eek out wins to make a champ game.

^^ CINCY CONT'D .. 

Schedule sets up in kindof a sneaky way to make a run .. No team has a bye or FCS team before them outside of Bowling Green and only one opponent is not catching Cincy straddled in a conf sandwich and only 4 road games .. only 4 true roadies on the ssn with Neb opener neutral in Kansas City .. conf has @KU, @OK.ST @Utah @TCU .. not easy Pokes n Utes look like the toughest spots and @Frogs finale hope we're in a spot to just grit the teeth there .. Home vs IA.St, UCF, AZ, BYU, Baylor .. Bears are after TCU a real tough spot and I'd put AZ and BYU as very tough late ssn road games .. But miss some big boys K-State, T-Tech, ASU..  Lot of the other top B12 teams play a bit of a round robin w each other and will clear a path for someone to step up thru attrition .. Iowa St is maybe the best case to make for that .. But I could see this Cincy team hanging around late in the year and eeking in .. Potential 3-Phase turnaround, enhanced coaching and familiarity, lot of returning starters and breakout prospects, great schedule setup for Cincy vs pretty tough for most other contenders .. 35 / 40-1 .. sign me up .. 

I also don't think we're over our ski's going rogue like I did last year with ASU .. although that turned out well ... Phil's preview has Cincy on the most improved list and as I put in the 'phil steele note' somewhere in the blog the placement of this team at #9 in his conf ratings is essentially telling me he likes the prospects of a surprise year .. easy to put Cincy way down as his competitors probably will and #9 is basically saying they're the 'best of the rest' basically we know the teams ahead of them have a shot and gotta give them their due .. its basically the same sorta risk / reward projection that we key'd on with Indiana last year .. then we see most improved list and a preview write up that indicates a surprise year .. hoping to see a 6 and more normal odds on the season wins .. we don't like the uncertainty at QB2 and while I feel like they're improved injuries could also cause trouble and maybe they won't take advantage of the schedule .. but Cincy has 'Make a bowl and maybe way beyond' written all over em this yr .. Good Luck!

BRIDGE PLAY

NEBRASKA / CINCINNATI +7

Got at Bookmaker for -106 and you can find 7's out there but shop around lotta 6.5's now .. Like we say above we think Cincy can turn their situation around .. I realize we're leaving SP+ Line points on the table here but we also think the SP+ is just flat out wrong on this one as they'd put this as a 11.5 point nebraska edge on a neutral field .. love to get that but there's no chance, books seem well ahead of what Cincy has and this number came out at 7/7.5 to start and most shops got it 6.5 now .. I think this trend continues and possible we see this drop to 4.5 by gameday .. Nebraska has alot of talent on their roster but Cincy has solid proven players and think some players that make for a dangerous matchup .. TE Joe Royer for sure and the DL had a tough time last year with injuries and adjusting to their new scheme .. Bearcats DL and LB units might be a real surprise and I like some of the output from the secondary last yr too they have plenty to work with again .. Nebraska lost some major firepower on their DL last year but there's still alot to like lots of returning production too and got the big star xfer from mizzoo who didn't do much last year .. some of their units look iffy though and we'll see it could be a solid year and also could be lacking star power and a year away from a BIG YEAR which I think is the case for them .. We're catching 7 on a neutral with a team I think turns things up in all 3 phases this yr Off / Def and ST and like the kicker they got 11/11 ace last year and just feels like there's too many potential spots where Cincy could edge this team .. also nobody's totally excited to lay points with Nebraska in a neutral opener they got some proving to do there .. Def one I can find slipping into the ML Parlay card too .. - Good luck!

G5 MAKE PLAYOFF TALK 

Critical factors this year taking a long shot ..

 - Win Conference .. **KEY**
 - Boise must lose to ND and 1 more ... **KEY**
 - CFP Ratings / Media Attention .. Must have eventually ..
 - Win P4 Matchup .. Or ... Look Capable vs Strong Comp .. Very Desirable ..
 - Beat Leading G5 Leading Contender(s) .. Very Desirable ..
 - 10+ Wins Minimum .. Insane luck to get there w 9 IMO ..

Leading Contenders
BOISE 2-1
UNLV 18-1
TULANE 8-1
MEMPHIS 8-1
LIBERTY  11-1
J.MADISON 13-1
ARMY 15-1
NAVY 18-1
TOLEDO 18-1

MAKE PLAYOFF G5

UTSA 25-1

Easy to write them off with TAMU on the schedule but I don't think we really need a win there although that would be great .. The more likely path to the CFP is if S.Fla can beat Boise week 1 and week 1 in the florida heat that is certainly possible with Byrum back at the helm .. S.FLA would be pegged as a top contender and helps if they can hang in there with Miami or Florida as they did with Bama the last 2 years .. If they can carry the hype late in the season UTSA has a chance to steal it .. alternatively Memphis could beat the Bulls .. But one way or another if the top contender sits in the AAC then the champ of that league most likely goes .. S.FLA beating boise would be the HUGE KEY to unlock that scenario .. Memphis is also a really strong candidate and the RR's don't play them in season but possible to steal their thunder in the champ game .. Actually think this has a decent shot, one way or another they need Boise out of the way but a few good scenarios open if they can put a big win total up and win the conf .. 

SAN DIEGO ST 60-1

Feels like a potential BIG turnaround .. we really need Lewis to IGNITE this offense in a way we just haven't seen at SDSU in a long time .. they'd also need a year like we haven't seen ever in terms of the wins .. they've been close to what would be considered playoff material in years past but always a step behind .. would be one of the biggest turnarounds in G5 history .. But they get a chance to steal Boise's thunder and winnable games vs Wash State and Cal .. win those and the MWC its tough to leave em out barring a G5 team ripping a MAJOR P4 team and winning 11 total games .. Total long shot but by proving they can unseat boise they have a shot at massive leaping others and taking the inside track .. of course they also might have to prove it twice in the champ game .. 

SO.MISS 100-1

Love this team and winnable P5 team up front .. catch ALOT of their toughest competition in bad spots and while they aren't unassuming at this point, opponents will be mindful of their imported SUN BELT CONF CHAMP roster, they will almost certainly still catch teams off guard with quality breakout players etc .. Beating Miss St at home in the opener .. running thru very winnable and the hope is JMU somehow looks like the lead dog .. beat Louisville would be very helpful for that .. Most likely S.Miss can only play spoiler .. if JMU is win and yer in and S.Miss is win and you're maybe in, then you can bet there will be some critical champ game calls going against the eagles or for JMU .. Just my opinion but when there's THAT MUCH on the line for these conferences trying to stay relevant with playoff berths I think the big boys will tend to get a big call in a critical moment helping them to maybe avoid an upset.. I've seen it too many times now to not consider it .. that's a potential issue for SDSU or any upstart trying to dislodge what looks like a conf playoff candidate .. this one needs alot of help and surprises but for 100x I can roll the dice on it ..