Another year .. waited a little longer this time we got so much action and moving parts, books don't seem nearly as bold putting numbers out and that makes sense very high degree of uncertainty on so many of these teams = wild variability in how the season could play out .. Books seem rather sheepish and should be lotta playin safe / moving to the mean .. lotta teams OVERLOADED w ret pro and some teams DEVOID .. you gotta know what's motivating a team to play and what's the goal of the program .. will we get some fight in the final weeks if its 'just to make a bowl' or will the good half of the team be on the injury list with both feet soaking in the portal pool next to their agents .. and .. which teams look like they're gunna finish strong no matter what goals have been shattered and complete the mission .. not many of those nowadays .. Big picture I think we can find a few we can find some teams that are wildly off just thinking this stuff thru ..
Nuff talk .. let's ride ..
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GENTS,
Another year .. waited a little longer this time we got so much action and moving parts, books don't seem nearly as bold putting numbers out and that makes sense very high degree of uncertainty on so many of these teams = wild variability in how the season could play out .. Books seem rather sheepish and should be lotta playin safe / moving to the mean .. lotta teams OVERLOADED w ret pro and some teams DEVOID .. you gotta know what's motivating a team to play and what's the goal of the program .. will we get some fight in the final weeks if its 'just to make a bowl' or will the good half of the team be on the injury list with both feet soaking in the portal pool next to their agents .. and .. which teams look like they're gunna finish strong no matter what goals have been shattered and complete the mission .. not many of those nowadays .. Big picture I think we can find a few we can find some teams that are wildly off just thinking this stuff thru ..
DUCK N BRIDGE collab .. Golden Eagles became Golden Showers last year easily my favorite fade, lined up the rifle on them early seeing em play FCS SE.LA and while they did win big there was just something about how they played that was irky jerky how they handle their FCS comp .. eventually pure talent diff would show up and struggles turned to points but it put em squarely on my FADEAR, grabbed S.FLA the next week even w Bulls in that BAMA/MIAMI Sandwich spot on the road, a horrifically bad start turned into an easy win .. we then took 2ND LT. HUFF -6 BIIIIG and JVILE didn't disappoint it was over in 5 minutes en route to a 1-11 season .. So what a shock surprise that SUN BELT CHAMP Marshall Coach Charles Huff not only let go but ends up there??!! .. lotta that roster was not happy that Marsh sent him off and also not only left but followed him to friggin Hattiesburg .. they wanna play for that coach and the seeds are baked in to turn around a 1-11 FBS Outlier ..
We have a year where G5 ret pro is at all time lows I clock the returning snaps at 45% on average, its in reality higher if I counted FCS guys snaps but actual FBS ret pro is way down there .. compare to P4 FBS ret pro snaps at 66% its twice the production and the quality behind it is probably 100x better .. no surprise the giant sucking noise from the upper ranks of CFB continues again this year with the free trade agreement .. the giant sucking on field production from the lower ranks should continue too .. Thus we find this opportunity that all the AI BRAIN 10000 models will have a tough time to see coming .. So Miss doesn't have MASSIVE ret pro numbers but they have at least one quality G5 player in each unit .. yer going from no QB to Braylon Braxton 19-2 ratio, gamer on the ground and has a SUN Belt championship to defend ..questionable depth at QB is a concern but Lyddy has some exp years back at la tech and uncertain but decently rated prospect in BC xfer Jacobe Robinson.. doubt we'd be in real trouble unless Braxton was totally OFY in fall camp or something drastic .. RB is propects but good ones, Matt Jones the famous 'Ole Miss Flopper' played 100 snaps not sure how many were flop att's but 44 rush 5/carry and played a very minor role L3Y there he's ready to be the lead horse on a small team real under the radar prospect .. WR room is loaded with production 5 marshall xfers all of BB's top targets maybe the best unit in the BELT .. Micah Davis from ole miss ready to play .. watch out .. he can KR/PR too .. OL has exp and some raw talent .. DL questions but legit dude Broadus Lewis returns and flanked by Marshall DUDE DE's .. some great prospects on the DL could make them a strength .. SAF/LB has a few questions not much back but a few prospects .. but CB has 3 solids including MAJOR DUDE Josh Moten and 5 decent prospects might be best unit on the team ..
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SSN WINS
SO MISS OVER 4.5 -115
DUCK N BRIDGE collab .. Golden Eagles became Golden Showers last year easily my favorite fade, lined up the rifle on them early seeing em play FCS SE.LA and while they did win big there was just something about how they played that was irky jerky how they handle their FCS comp .. eventually pure talent diff would show up and struggles turned to points but it put em squarely on my FADEAR, grabbed S.FLA the next week even w Bulls in that BAMA/MIAMI Sandwich spot on the road, a horrifically bad start turned into an easy win .. we then took 2ND LT. HUFF -6 BIIIIG and JVILE didn't disappoint it was over in 5 minutes en route to a 1-11 season .. So what a shock surprise that SUN BELT CHAMP Marshall Coach Charles Huff not only let go but ends up there??!! .. lotta that roster was not happy that Marsh sent him off and also not only left but followed him to friggin Hattiesburg .. they wanna play for that coach and the seeds are baked in to turn around a 1-11 FBS Outlier ..
We have a year where G5 ret pro is at all time lows I clock the returning snaps at 45% on average, its in reality higher if I counted FCS guys snaps but actual FBS ret pro is way down there .. compare to P4 FBS ret pro snaps at 66% its twice the production and the quality behind it is probably 100x better .. no surprise the giant sucking noise from the upper ranks of CFB continues again this year with the free trade agreement .. the giant sucking on field production from the lower ranks should continue too .. Thus we find this opportunity that all the AI BRAIN 10000 models will have a tough time to see coming .. So Miss doesn't have MASSIVE ret pro numbers but they have at least one quality G5 player in each unit .. yer going from no QB to Braylon Braxton 19-2 ratio, gamer on the ground and has a SUN Belt championship to defend ..questionable depth at QB is a concern but Lyddy has some exp years back at la tech and uncertain but decently rated prospect in BC xfer Jacobe Robinson.. doubt we'd be in real trouble unless Braxton was totally OFY in fall camp or something drastic .. RB is propects but good ones, Matt Jones the famous 'Ole Miss Flopper' played 100 snaps not sure how many were flop att's but 44 rush 5/carry and played a very minor role L3Y there he's ready to be the lead horse on a small team real under the radar prospect .. WR room is loaded with production 5 marshall xfers all of BB's top targets maybe the best unit in the BELT .. Micah Davis from ole miss ready to play .. watch out .. he can KR/PR too .. OL has exp and some raw talent .. DL questions but legit dude Broadus Lewis returns and flanked by Marshall DUDE DE's .. some great prospects on the DL could make them a strength .. SAF/LB has a few questions not much back but a few prospects .. but CB has 3 solids including MAJOR DUDE Josh Moten and 5 decent prospects might be best unit on the team ..
The big concerns are overall roster numbers lot of room freed up from PY roster which is actually a good thing, but there's a few guys I'd have hoped would still be around .. def a concern with special teams can't see a real punter/kicker in there yet .. staff will be busy filling the space maybe up to the fall but the DUDES that have to carry a team are definitely there and units have both experienced returners and decent number of rated prospects / guys from bigger school coming in that want a big year .. and potential conf elite units .. QB, WR, CB maybe DE could be all sun belt quality .. add on a ton of marshall prospects looking to defend their championship belt and it feels right ..
Depending on what they have on field I don't see many sure thing losses on the schedule outside of trip to starkville week 1 .. but honestly nothing would surprise me here .. So Miss will throw their best punch at in-state big boys and cow bell's havent been ringing much lately .. actually hear its really bad for them this yr RSW 3.5 .. eek better win this one lol ..
FCS Jackson State I think the talent diff is massive .. big BIIIIG home gm vs Appy, @La Tech lost alot, J-VIlle got gutted, UL Monroe maybe not improved, Troy same thing, .. those are the best winnable games and @G.SO, @ULL, @Ark St, @ So Bama, Tex State is the tougher slate .. tough to contend for the BELT with the hard stuff on the road but I think its at least 11 potentially winnable games and maybe we look back and see only 8 or 9 were .. but nonetheless lotta shots on goal this year and overall I don't think the BELT is improving we might see some total duds emerge outta that slate and hopefully S.Miss doesn't miss on those .. if not we cover 4.5 easy .. pull a (smi) shocker and beat the house in starkvegas week 1 and we're booking plane tix for the so miss bowl trip in early Sept ..
Good luck!
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^^SO.MISS CONT'd ..
The big concerns are overall roster numbers lot of room freed up from PY roster which is actually a good thing, but there's a few guys I'd have hoped would still be around .. def a concern with special teams can't see a real punter/kicker in there yet .. staff will be busy filling the space maybe up to the fall but the DUDES that have to carry a team are definitely there and units have both experienced returners and decent number of rated prospects / guys from bigger school coming in that want a big year .. and potential conf elite units .. QB, WR, CB maybe DE could be all sun belt quality .. add on a ton of marshall prospects looking to defend their championship belt and it feels right ..
Depending on what they have on field I don't see many sure thing losses on the schedule outside of trip to starkville week 1 .. but honestly nothing would surprise me here .. So Miss will throw their best punch at in-state big boys and cow bell's havent been ringing much lately .. actually hear its really bad for them this yr RSW 3.5 .. eek better win this one lol ..
FCS Jackson State I think the talent diff is massive .. big BIIIIG home gm vs Appy, @La Tech lost alot, J-VIlle got gutted, UL Monroe maybe not improved, Troy same thing, .. those are the best winnable games and @G.SO, @ULL, @Ark St, @ So Bama, Tex State is the tougher slate .. tough to contend for the BELT with the hard stuff on the road but I think its at least 11 potentially winnable games and maybe we look back and see only 8 or 9 were .. but nonetheless lotta shots on goal this year and overall I don't think the BELT is improving we might see some total duds emerge outta that slate and hopefully S.Miss doesn't miss on those .. if not we cover 4.5 easy .. pull a (smi) shocker and beat the house in starkvegas week 1 and we're booking plane tix for the so miss bowl trip in early Sept ..
I was kinda thinking take a stab 40-1 on these guys for the conf 40-1 made them the runt of the conf litter when the odds came out .. but I held off waiting for more, thought 50 or more coulda showed up.. welp someone had the same idea and/or something else spooked the books because they're sitting 18-1 .. this doesn't at all line up with 4.5 ssn wins not when they miss JMU on the schedule and have only one real likely loss vs Miss state a strong likely win vs Jackson State on there .. basically saying if the exact same team w same schedule wasn't wearing a S.Miss helmet they probably get 5.5 wins like the others in their conf odds tier .. Marshall has like30% ret pro and RSW at 5.5 which seems inflated with so little ret pro and change in coaching staff .. I'll just say that if So Miss changed its name to Marshall this year with so much quality ret pro and solid prospects looking to defend their title again then I can't see how the books aren't hangin their win total at 6.5 for this same team, JMU looks really poised to win the conf this year and maybe even go beyond that and thier AI Super Brain Model has them 7.5 wins, and that's in a conf that could be in real trouble this year .. that's what I mean by look for the weird stuff the odds wizards are putting out there .. So Miss number predicated on the helmet by at least a full game .. maybe 2 games ?.. maybe .. more?.. think about it ..
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^^ SO.MISS CONT'D
I was kinda thinking take a stab 40-1 on these guys for the conf 40-1 made them the runt of the conf litter when the odds came out .. but I held off waiting for more, thought 50 or more coulda showed up.. welp someone had the same idea and/or something else spooked the books because they're sitting 18-1 .. this doesn't at all line up with 4.5 ssn wins not when they miss JMU on the schedule and have only one real likely loss vs Miss state a strong likely win vs Jackson State on there .. basically saying if the exact same team w same schedule wasn't wearing a S.Miss helmet they probably get 5.5 wins like the others in their conf odds tier .. Marshall has like30% ret pro and RSW at 5.5 which seems inflated with so little ret pro and change in coaching staff .. I'll just say that if So Miss changed its name to Marshall this year with so much quality ret pro and solid prospects looking to defend their title again then I can't see how the books aren't hangin their win total at 6.5 for this same team, JMU looks really poised to win the conf this year and maybe even go beyond that and thier AI Super Brain Model has them 7.5 wins, and that's in a conf that could be in real trouble this year .. that's what I mean by look for the weird stuff the odds wizards are putting out there .. So Miss number predicated on the helmet by at least a full game .. maybe 2 games ?.. maybe .. more?.. think about it ..
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