Another year .. waited a little longer this time we got so much action and moving parts, books don't seem nearly as bold putting numbers out and that makes sense very high degree of uncertainty on so many of these teams = wild variability in how the season could play out .. Books seem rather sheepish and should be lotta playin safe / moving to the mean .. lotta teams OVERLOADED w ret pro and some teams DEVOID .. you gotta know what's motivating a team to play and what's the goal of the program .. will we get some fight in the final weeks if its 'just to make a bowl' or will the good half of the team be on the injury list with both feet soaking in the portal pool next to their agents .. and .. which teams look like they're gunna finish strong no matter what goals have been shattered and complete the mission .. not many of those nowadays .. Big picture I think we can find a few we can find some teams that are wildly off just thinking this stuff thru ..
Nuff talk .. let's ride ..
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
GENTS,
Another year .. waited a little longer this time we got so much action and moving parts, books don't seem nearly as bold putting numbers out and that makes sense very high degree of uncertainty on so many of these teams = wild variability in how the season could play out .. Books seem rather sheepish and should be lotta playin safe / moving to the mean .. lotta teams OVERLOADED w ret pro and some teams DEVOID .. you gotta know what's motivating a team to play and what's the goal of the program .. will we get some fight in the final weeks if its 'just to make a bowl' or will the good half of the team be on the injury list with both feet soaking in the portal pool next to their agents .. and .. which teams look like they're gunna finish strong no matter what goals have been shattered and complete the mission .. not many of those nowadays .. Big picture I think we can find a few we can find some teams that are wildly off just thinking this stuff thru ..
DUCK N BRIDGE collab .. Golden Eagles became Golden Showers last year easily my favorite fade, lined up the rifle on them early seeing em play FCS SE.LA and while they did win big there was just something about how they played that was irky jerky how they handle their FCS comp .. eventually pure talent diff would show up and struggles turned to points but it put em squarely on my FADEAR, grabbed S.FLA the next week even w Bulls in that BAMA/MIAMI Sandwich spot on the road, a horrifically bad start turned into an easy win .. we then took 2ND LT. HUFF -6 BIIIIG and JVILE didn't disappoint it was over in 5 minutes en route to a 1-11 season .. So what a shock surprise that SUN BELT CHAMP Marshall Coach Charles Huff not only let go but ends up there??!! .. lotta that roster was not happy that Marsh sent him off and also not only left but followed him to friggin Hattiesburg .. they wanna play for that coach and the seeds are baked in to turn around a 1-11 FBS Outlier ..
We have a year where G5 ret pro is at all time lows I clock the returning snaps at 45% on average, its in reality higher if I counted FCS guys snaps but actual FBS ret pro is way down there .. compare to P4 FBS ret pro snaps at 66% its twice the production and the quality behind it is probably 100x better .. no surprise the giant sucking noise from the upper ranks of CFB continues again this year with the free trade agreement .. the giant sucking on field production from the lower ranks should continue too .. Thus we find this opportunity that all the AI BRAIN 10000 models will have a tough time to see coming .. So Miss doesn't have MASSIVE ret pro numbers but they have at least one quality G5 player in each unit .. yer going from no QB to Braylon Braxton 19-2 ratio, gamer on the ground and has a SUN Belt championship to defend ..questionable depth at QB is a concern but Lyddy has some exp years back at la tech and uncertain but decently rated prospect in BC xfer Jacobe Robinson.. doubt we'd be in real trouble unless Braxton was totally OFY in fall camp or something drastic .. RB is propects but good ones, Matt Jones the famous 'Ole Miss Flopper' played 100 snaps not sure how many were flop att's but 44 rush 5/carry and played a very minor role L3Y there he's ready to be the lead horse on a small team real under the radar prospect .. WR room is loaded with production 5 marshall xfers all of BB's top targets maybe the best unit in the BELT .. Micah Davis from ole miss ready to play .. watch out .. he can KR/PR too .. OL has exp and some raw talent .. DL questions but legit dude Broadus Lewis returns and flanked by Marshall DUDE DE's .. some great prospects on the DL could make them a strength .. SAF/LB has a few questions not much back but a few prospects .. but CB has 3 solids including MAJOR DUDE Josh Moten and 5 decent prospects might be best unit on the team ..
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SSN WINS
SO MISS OVER 4.5 -115
DUCK N BRIDGE collab .. Golden Eagles became Golden Showers last year easily my favorite fade, lined up the rifle on them early seeing em play FCS SE.LA and while they did win big there was just something about how they played that was irky jerky how they handle their FCS comp .. eventually pure talent diff would show up and struggles turned to points but it put em squarely on my FADEAR, grabbed S.FLA the next week even w Bulls in that BAMA/MIAMI Sandwich spot on the road, a horrifically bad start turned into an easy win .. we then took 2ND LT. HUFF -6 BIIIIG and JVILE didn't disappoint it was over in 5 minutes en route to a 1-11 season .. So what a shock surprise that SUN BELT CHAMP Marshall Coach Charles Huff not only let go but ends up there??!! .. lotta that roster was not happy that Marsh sent him off and also not only left but followed him to friggin Hattiesburg .. they wanna play for that coach and the seeds are baked in to turn around a 1-11 FBS Outlier ..
We have a year where G5 ret pro is at all time lows I clock the returning snaps at 45% on average, its in reality higher if I counted FCS guys snaps but actual FBS ret pro is way down there .. compare to P4 FBS ret pro snaps at 66% its twice the production and the quality behind it is probably 100x better .. no surprise the giant sucking noise from the upper ranks of CFB continues again this year with the free trade agreement .. the giant sucking on field production from the lower ranks should continue too .. Thus we find this opportunity that all the AI BRAIN 10000 models will have a tough time to see coming .. So Miss doesn't have MASSIVE ret pro numbers but they have at least one quality G5 player in each unit .. yer going from no QB to Braylon Braxton 19-2 ratio, gamer on the ground and has a SUN Belt championship to defend ..questionable depth at QB is a concern but Lyddy has some exp years back at la tech and uncertain but decently rated prospect in BC xfer Jacobe Robinson.. doubt we'd be in real trouble unless Braxton was totally OFY in fall camp or something drastic .. RB is propects but good ones, Matt Jones the famous 'Ole Miss Flopper' played 100 snaps not sure how many were flop att's but 44 rush 5/carry and played a very minor role L3Y there he's ready to be the lead horse on a small team real under the radar prospect .. WR room is loaded with production 5 marshall xfers all of BB's top targets maybe the best unit in the BELT .. Micah Davis from ole miss ready to play .. watch out .. he can KR/PR too .. OL has exp and some raw talent .. DL questions but legit dude Broadus Lewis returns and flanked by Marshall DUDE DE's .. some great prospects on the DL could make them a strength .. SAF/LB has a few questions not much back but a few prospects .. but CB has 3 solids including MAJOR DUDE Josh Moten and 5 decent prospects might be best unit on the team ..
The big concerns are overall roster numbers lot of room freed up from PY roster which is actually a good thing, but there's a few guys I'd have hoped would still be around .. def a concern with special teams can't see a real punter/kicker in there yet .. staff will be busy filling the space maybe up to the fall but the DUDES that have to carry a team are definitely there and units have both experienced returners and decent number of rated prospects / guys from bigger school coming in that want a big year .. and potential conf elite units .. QB, WR, CB maybe DE could be all sun belt quality .. add on a ton of marshall prospects looking to defend their championship belt and it feels right ..
Depending on what they have on field I don't see many sure thing losses on the schedule outside of trip to starkville week 1 .. but honestly nothing would surprise me here .. So Miss will throw their best punch at in-state big boys and cow bell's havent been ringing much lately .. actually hear its really bad for them this yr RSW 3.5 .. eek better win this one lol ..
FCS Jackson State I think the talent diff is massive .. big BIIIIG home gm vs Appy, @La Tech lost alot, J-VIlle got gutted, UL Monroe maybe not improved, Troy same thing, .. those are the best winnable games and @G.SO, @ULL, @Ark St, @ So Bama, Tex State is the tougher slate .. tough to contend for the BELT with the hard stuff on the road but I think its at least 11 potentially winnable games and maybe we look back and see only 8 or 9 were .. but nonetheless lotta shots on goal this year and overall I don't think the BELT is improving we might see some total duds emerge outta that slate and hopefully S.Miss doesn't miss on those .. if not we cover 4.5 easy .. pull a (smi) shocker and beat the house in starkvegas week 1 and we're booking plane tix for the so miss bowl trip in early Sept ..
Good luck!
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^^SO.MISS CONT'd ..
The big concerns are overall roster numbers lot of room freed up from PY roster which is actually a good thing, but there's a few guys I'd have hoped would still be around .. def a concern with special teams can't see a real punter/kicker in there yet .. staff will be busy filling the space maybe up to the fall but the DUDES that have to carry a team are definitely there and units have both experienced returners and decent number of rated prospects / guys from bigger school coming in that want a big year .. and potential conf elite units .. QB, WR, CB maybe DE could be all sun belt quality .. add on a ton of marshall prospects looking to defend their championship belt and it feels right ..
Depending on what they have on field I don't see many sure thing losses on the schedule outside of trip to starkville week 1 .. but honestly nothing would surprise me here .. So Miss will throw their best punch at in-state big boys and cow bell's havent been ringing much lately .. actually hear its really bad for them this yr RSW 3.5 .. eek better win this one lol ..
FCS Jackson State I think the talent diff is massive .. big BIIIIG home gm vs Appy, @La Tech lost alot, J-VIlle got gutted, UL Monroe maybe not improved, Troy same thing, .. those are the best winnable games and @G.SO, @ULL, @Ark St, @ So Bama, Tex State is the tougher slate .. tough to contend for the BELT with the hard stuff on the road but I think its at least 11 potentially winnable games and maybe we look back and see only 8 or 9 were .. but nonetheless lotta shots on goal this year and overall I don't think the BELT is improving we might see some total duds emerge outta that slate and hopefully S.Miss doesn't miss on those .. if not we cover 4.5 easy .. pull a (smi) shocker and beat the house in starkvegas week 1 and we're booking plane tix for the so miss bowl trip in early Sept ..
I was kinda thinking take a stab 40-1 on these guys for the conf 40-1 made them the runt of the conf litter when the odds came out .. but I held off waiting for more, thought 50 or more coulda showed up.. welp someone had the same idea and/or something else spooked the books because they're sitting 18-1 .. this doesn't at all line up with 4.5 ssn wins not when they miss JMU on the schedule and have only one real likely loss vs Miss state a strong likely win vs Jackson State on there .. basically saying if the exact same team w same schedule wasn't wearing a S.Miss helmet they probably get 5.5 wins like the others in their conf odds tier .. Marshall has like30% ret pro and RSW at 5.5 which seems inflated with so little ret pro and change in coaching staff .. I'll just say that if So Miss changed its name to Marshall this year with so much quality ret pro and solid prospects looking to defend their title again then I can't see how the books aren't hangin their win total at 6.5 for this same team, JMU looks really poised to win the conf this year and maybe even go beyond that and thier AI Super Brain Model has them 7.5 wins, and that's in a conf that could be in real trouble this year .. that's what I mean by look for the weird stuff the odds wizards are putting out there .. So Miss number predicated on the helmet by at least a full game .. maybe 2 games ?.. maybe .. more?.. think about it ..
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^^ SO.MISS CONT'D
I was kinda thinking take a stab 40-1 on these guys for the conf 40-1 made them the runt of the conf litter when the odds came out .. but I held off waiting for more, thought 50 or more coulda showed up.. welp someone had the same idea and/or something else spooked the books because they're sitting 18-1 .. this doesn't at all line up with 4.5 ssn wins not when they miss JMU on the schedule and have only one real likely loss vs Miss state a strong likely win vs Jackson State on there .. basically saying if the exact same team w same schedule wasn't wearing a S.Miss helmet they probably get 5.5 wins like the others in their conf odds tier .. Marshall has like30% ret pro and RSW at 5.5 which seems inflated with so little ret pro and change in coaching staff .. I'll just say that if So Miss changed its name to Marshall this year with so much quality ret pro and solid prospects looking to defend their title again then I can't see how the books aren't hangin their win total at 6.5 for this same team, JMU looks really poised to win the conf this year and maybe even go beyond that and thier AI Super Brain Model has them 7.5 wins, and that's in a conf that could be in real trouble this year .. that's what I mean by look for the weird stuff the odds wizards are putting out there .. So Miss number predicated on the helmet by at least a full game .. maybe 2 games ?.. maybe .. more?.. think about it ..
BRIDGE N DUCK with another gem .. man what were we smokin?...
Crux of the play is we have a potentially vastly improved Cavs squad that sees to be making a major point to bring quality players into the program this year .. seems like the final shot for Tony Elliot to show he can get things turned around and he's got a squad that will prove him out as an HC one way or another .. Besides vast potential improvement we have a schedule that is not exceptionally daunting and even after SP+ dropped updated spring ratings we still have these guys in the basement tier of the ACC rated within 1 point or so of Wake and Stanford and a full 4 points behind Cal and BC .. ESPN gave us the best odds for this by far 200-1 .. don't think that'll be around long but if we hit some paydirt you won't feel bad at 150x think there's enough to like that its worth a lotto play ..
The hope here is they scored a gem in chandler morris whose been all over oklahoma, TCU, N.Tex last year and guy was a legit awesome gamer .. Colandria was fun to watch last 2 yrs but 61% comp, 13TD's 11 INT's 6 fumbles .. 39 SACKS! .. Morris doesn't have the highest comp rate 63% but 31-12 and 3% sack rate to AC's 10% .. A stat I like is how often when a QB drops back does he get out an aimed pass or pick up pos yds on a scramble and Morris was one of the best 94% limited fumbles, throw aways, sacks, and other junk really a gamer that gives his team a chance moving the chains .. Solid upgrade if he can translate that back into the P4 ranks with more reliable receivers ..
UVA's Off has been plagued for years by bad OL's .. they lose 4 starters which might not be the worst thing .. they bring in a bunch have 7-8 lotta solid PFF block ratings .. they did lose the gem of their class Monroe Mills from Ville in spring ball .. OFY ... but this is a potential huge upgrade if they can't make it work this year then coaches gotta go ..
RB looks potentially strong with Augustave from the Buffs and Waylee from Wyo who RS last yr 4 gms but is proven in '22/23 at WYO and N.ILL .. watch for J'Mari Taylor FCS NC Cent RB a real potential run/rec/break tkls yds after contact and can pass block .. potential X factor to complement the 2 high planes horses ..
WR lost a MAJOR DUDE in Malachi Fields .. but the unit top to bottom looks like a capable solid unit w 3 solid portalers in and a few others playing behind fields, lot of proven solid starter grade targets but this is a key unit we need a couple guys to now emerge as legit stars with Morris.. potential is there .. we'll see.. TE also looks fine albeit limited production back with Twitty and Ennis need them to break out too ..
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CONF
VIRGINIA 200-1 (ESPN)
BRIDGE N DUCK with another gem .. man what were we smokin?...
Crux of the play is we have a potentially vastly improved Cavs squad that sees to be making a major point to bring quality players into the program this year .. seems like the final shot for Tony Elliot to show he can get things turned around and he's got a squad that will prove him out as an HC one way or another .. Besides vast potential improvement we have a schedule that is not exceptionally daunting and even after SP+ dropped updated spring ratings we still have these guys in the basement tier of the ACC rated within 1 point or so of Wake and Stanford and a full 4 points behind Cal and BC .. ESPN gave us the best odds for this by far 200-1 .. don't think that'll be around long but if we hit some paydirt you won't feel bad at 150x think there's enough to like that its worth a lotto play ..
The hope here is they scored a gem in chandler morris whose been all over oklahoma, TCU, N.Tex last year and guy was a legit awesome gamer .. Colandria was fun to watch last 2 yrs but 61% comp, 13TD's 11 INT's 6 fumbles .. 39 SACKS! .. Morris doesn't have the highest comp rate 63% but 31-12 and 3% sack rate to AC's 10% .. A stat I like is how often when a QB drops back does he get out an aimed pass or pick up pos yds on a scramble and Morris was one of the best 94% limited fumbles, throw aways, sacks, and other junk really a gamer that gives his team a chance moving the chains .. Solid upgrade if he can translate that back into the P4 ranks with more reliable receivers ..
UVA's Off has been plagued for years by bad OL's .. they lose 4 starters which might not be the worst thing .. they bring in a bunch have 7-8 lotta solid PFF block ratings .. they did lose the gem of their class Monroe Mills from Ville in spring ball .. OFY ... but this is a potential huge upgrade if they can't make it work this year then coaches gotta go ..
RB looks potentially strong with Augustave from the Buffs and Waylee from Wyo who RS last yr 4 gms but is proven in '22/23 at WYO and N.ILL .. watch for J'Mari Taylor FCS NC Cent RB a real potential run/rec/break tkls yds after contact and can pass block .. potential X factor to complement the 2 high planes horses ..
WR lost a MAJOR DUDE in Malachi Fields .. but the unit top to bottom looks like a capable solid unit w 3 solid portalers in and a few others playing behind fields, lot of proven solid starter grade targets but this is a key unit we need a couple guys to now emerge as legit stars with Morris.. potential is there .. we'll see.. TE also looks fine albeit limited production back with Twitty and Ennis need them to break out too ..
The D is also interesting and finally has some potential with a decent group returning and some solid Xfers. The big like here is DC Rudzinski, he's proved he can do it with less at Air Force and pitched a couple good years when he arrived at UVA.. and this group looks good with legit 2-deeps competing for spots, some good dudes at the G5 and FCS are looking ready for this level so units could be more than 2-deep and thats so huge for making a big improvement .. Looks like the best D that DC RUDZI has had at UVA maybe by far and hard to imagine he doesn't pitch a real solid season and potential is there for the surprise gem we'd really want ...
SP-Teams ... my favorite part .. Legit Kicker, legit punter, brought in a high rated L/S from Kennesaw A+ specialists unit sans the KR/PR's .. they do get JMU Xfer cam ross was decent KR housed one last year ..be great to have him and a PR weapon emerge too ..
Schedule is not impossible to make the champ game .. @NC.State, Stan, FSU, @VILLE, @UNC, @CAL, Wake, @Duke, VT at home for the big finale rivalry ... Tricky spot going @UNC and then X-Country to Cal .. @Ville need to find a way.. FSU at home on a FRI night crowd will be rockin ... not impossible but alot gotta come together just right and hope to make the champ game and also not be just a massive underdog. Clem or Miami could turn unstoppable but we're really not living in the era of super teams anymore and feels like if UVA can get to the CCG and not look flukey then we'll hit a decent enough payday hedging some and have plenty left over for a victory party ..
Good luck!
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^^ VIRGINIA CONT'd ..
The D is also interesting and finally has some potential with a decent group returning and some solid Xfers. The big like here is DC Rudzinski, he's proved he can do it with less at Air Force and pitched a couple good years when he arrived at UVA.. and this group looks good with legit 2-deeps competing for spots, some good dudes at the G5 and FCS are looking ready for this level so units could be more than 2-deep and thats so huge for making a big improvement .. Looks like the best D that DC RUDZI has had at UVA maybe by far and hard to imagine he doesn't pitch a real solid season and potential is there for the surprise gem we'd really want ...
SP-Teams ... my favorite part .. Legit Kicker, legit punter, brought in a high rated L/S from Kennesaw A+ specialists unit sans the KR/PR's .. they do get JMU Xfer cam ross was decent KR housed one last year ..be great to have him and a PR weapon emerge too ..
Schedule is not impossible to make the champ game .. @NC.State, Stan, FSU, @VILLE, @UNC, @CAL, Wake, @Duke, VT at home for the big finale rivalry ... Tricky spot going @UNC and then X-Country to Cal .. @Ville need to find a way.. FSU at home on a FRI night crowd will be rockin ... not impossible but alot gotta come together just right and hope to make the champ game and also not be just a massive underdog. Clem or Miami could turn unstoppable but we're really not living in the era of super teams anymore and feels like if UVA can get to the CCG and not look flukey then we'll hit a decent enough payday hedging some and have plenty left over for a victory party ..
I looked over quite a few of the 'worst of the worst' teams this year to get a handle on what the bad outlier situations were and this I think is by far the worst roster-wise and coaching ..
HC Kenni Burns was fired pre-spring, im sure for quite a few reasons, but this kept the portal open longer and the Kent Corpse which was already a skeleton got picked apart a little longer .. the OC now takes over HC and as of now I believe he's on double duty this year ... It's a really realllllly tough position to be in to try to attract any star portal players who just couldn't get re-homed at a better situation, I can't imagine any money they have would be burned on a very possible 1 or zero win season and with their coach situation TBD .. eek .. There was no info on their spring practice I could find very little beat reporter action outside of national story on the coach .. But surfing the roster my assessment had major questions about
The one saving grace was that Kargman who won the job last year would be healthy and have a good year .. He got inj couple plays into PSU gm LY and xferred post-spring in the HC Fired portal windows .. CJ Montees was on the team for spring but he transferred out to FAMU, I assume lost out to Kargman? and he now boomeranged back in .. Montees had a great year for FCS Fordham in '23 but horrible start in '24 before ssn ending injury 3 gms in .. maybe gives Kent a shot to win a few but he's gotta overcome ssn ending injuries do alot with very little and can't get hurt .. That's as enthusiastic as it gets for the Zips units this year ..
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SSN WINS
KENT STATE UNDER 2.5 -120 (CZR)
I looked over quite a few of the 'worst of the worst' teams this year to get a handle on what the bad outlier situations were and this I think is by far the worst roster-wise and coaching ..
HC Kenni Burns was fired pre-spring, im sure for quite a few reasons, but this kept the portal open longer and the Kent Corpse which was already a skeleton got picked apart a little longer .. the OC now takes over HC and as of now I believe he's on double duty this year ... It's a really realllllly tough position to be in to try to attract any star portal players who just couldn't get re-homed at a better situation, I can't imagine any money they have would be burned on a very possible 1 or zero win season and with their coach situation TBD .. eek .. There was no info on their spring practice I could find very little beat reporter action outside of national story on the coach .. But surfing the roster my assessment had major questions about
The one saving grace was that Kargman who won the job last year would be healthy and have a good year .. He got inj couple plays into PSU gm LY and xferred post-spring in the HC Fired portal windows .. CJ Montees was on the team for spring but he transferred out to FAMU, I assume lost out to Kargman? and he now boomeranged back in .. Montees had a great year for FCS Fordham in '23 but horrible start in '24 before ssn ending injury 3 gms in .. maybe gives Kent a shot to win a few but he's gotta overcome ssn ending injuries do alot with very little and can't get hurt .. That's as enthusiastic as it gets for the Zips units this year ..
OL - 6/7 guys to choose from and 2 true fr .. Way past crush depth even if they have 5 legit starters on there this could ruin any offense .. DL - 4/5 total in the unit depending on if OL Maddox is also NT for them .. robbing the poor to pay the really poor here .. and lost some actual decent ones in this unit and guys they have played ~100 snaps total LY .. depth non existent .. DE - Lost 2 guys to Indy and Kentucky one guy was pretty solid .. 2 exp returners that werent anywhere near as productive .. maybe a capable couple guys but maybe not .. LB, SAF, CB - have at least 1 guy in the unit who can play, need them to dominate and find 2-3 more even just low quality players, very unlikely w what they have ... WR possibly has 2 capable guys and bring in a 3rd butler CC Juco .. he had 7 catches 63 yds in 10 games for them and is 5'10 150 lbs .. man .. they have a KY xfer but didn't play much even LY 7 gms 20 yds total .. needless to say if everyone doesn't work out solid its trouble and depth?.... forget it .. that's a common theme all over the roster .. TE - Add Davidson Xfer who ourlads has at the starter but he committed in Dec and wasn't on the team spring roster, maybe a late joiner but maybe goes AWOL .. Either way he had 4 Rec for 41 yds last year, Kent might need him to have 10 or 15X that .. eesh.. RB - Best news is while their Top guy Ky they maybe getting Gavin Garcia back at RB he was OFY last year and a surprise for them in their '23 RB rotation .. they do have Jordan Nubin and Jaydan Harris their 2 backups step up into a major RB role .. SP-Tms needs to get lucky with very few inexerienced players .. 1 inexp P on roster .. eek
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KENT ST CONT'D ..
Roster Unit Notes .. ugly at every turn ..
OL - 6/7 guys to choose from and 2 true fr .. Way past crush depth even if they have 5 legit starters on there this could ruin any offense .. DL - 4/5 total in the unit depending on if OL Maddox is also NT for them .. robbing the poor to pay the really poor here .. and lost some actual decent ones in this unit and guys they have played ~100 snaps total LY .. depth non existent .. DE - Lost 2 guys to Indy and Kentucky one guy was pretty solid .. 2 exp returners that werent anywhere near as productive .. maybe a capable couple guys but maybe not .. LB, SAF, CB - have at least 1 guy in the unit who can play, need them to dominate and find 2-3 more even just low quality players, very unlikely w what they have ... WR possibly has 2 capable guys and bring in a 3rd butler CC Juco .. he had 7 catches 63 yds in 10 games for them and is 5'10 150 lbs .. man .. they have a KY xfer but didn't play much even LY 7 gms 20 yds total .. needless to say if everyone doesn't work out solid its trouble and depth?.... forget it .. that's a common theme all over the roster .. TE - Add Davidson Xfer who ourlads has at the starter but he committed in Dec and wasn't on the team spring roster, maybe a late joiner but maybe goes AWOL .. Either way he had 4 Rec for 41 yds last year, Kent might need him to have 10 or 15X that .. eesh.. RB - Best news is while their Top guy Ky they maybe getting Gavin Garcia back at RB he was OFY last year and a surprise for them in their '23 RB rotation .. they do have Jordan Nubin and Jaydan Harris their 2 backups step up into a major RB role .. SP-Tms needs to get lucky with very few inexerienced players .. 1 inexp P on roster .. eek
The ALL IN number for this one in my mind was RSW 3.5 and still woulda been a MASSIVE play at 3 as I can't see them winning 4 this year .. Books put 1.5 out early clearly seeing what I'm seeing .. CAESARS comes thru for us again with a playable number .. There is maybe a universe where this team gets 3 wins because of the easiness of the schedule / Wacky Mac does give way to wacky results ..
Start off with Merrimack, this is a must win .. I look at Kent as maybe a bad FCS level team so nothing would surprise me .. If the Merri Men of Merrimack pull a 'so called' stunner then we're collecting a check early .. wouldn't put it past Kent to lose this one but for analysis sake we gotta say Kent will have a lock down win on their schedule ..
After that Kent is @T-Tech, @FSU, @Oklahoma in the first 5 weeks .. huge injury risk for this team both physically and mentally coming outta that stretch .. they also get Buffalo at home and I like the Bulls roster this year idk if they're 17 pt favs like SP+ says but not worried at all on that one ..
Back end conf schedule is ... UMASS, @TOL, BG, @Ball St, @Akron, CMU, @N.ILL ...
UMASS has alot of questions on their roster but I really like their QB sitch and I think they got quite a few 'last chance U' players to fill gaps that Kent didn't .. SP+ says its about a pick I think Umass has a good shot to Wax em ..
The other winnable stuff potentially is on the road B2B @Ball St and @Akron .. neither roster is very good but Ball St has a QB and Akron if there's one game they show up for its this one .. beat em by 3 TD's last year and Kent is undoubtably much worse while Akron might be about the same .. CMU seems potenitally improved and finale @N.ILL well I hope its not a dead spot for them .. for a team w very low ret pro N.ILL had alot of quality backups filling the roster, good coach and unless they pull a no show at home its tough to imagine they lose this one .. SP has Huskies as 16 pt dogs ..
SP+ originally came out with Kent State -27 a supreme outlier 3 points worse than the next worse team .. The new version seems to have compressed the bottom of the model scrunching the bad teams a little closer and projects 2.8 wins for the Zips .. Models using assumptions that are statistically valid over 130 FBS teams relies on basic assumption .. but deep in the garbage pile you gotta look at the situation close and trust yer gut .. mine says 1-11 or maybe 0-11 if Montees can't handle being a QB in this bad situation or gets hurt or anywhere else has any sorta starter injuries ..
Good luck!
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^^ KENT ST CONT'D ..
The ALL IN number for this one in my mind was RSW 3.5 and still woulda been a MASSIVE play at 3 as I can't see them winning 4 this year .. Books put 1.5 out early clearly seeing what I'm seeing .. CAESARS comes thru for us again with a playable number .. There is maybe a universe where this team gets 3 wins because of the easiness of the schedule / Wacky Mac does give way to wacky results ..
Start off with Merrimack, this is a must win .. I look at Kent as maybe a bad FCS level team so nothing would surprise me .. If the Merri Men of Merrimack pull a 'so called' stunner then we're collecting a check early .. wouldn't put it past Kent to lose this one but for analysis sake we gotta say Kent will have a lock down win on their schedule ..
After that Kent is @T-Tech, @FSU, @Oklahoma in the first 5 weeks .. huge injury risk for this team both physically and mentally coming outta that stretch .. they also get Buffalo at home and I like the Bulls roster this year idk if they're 17 pt favs like SP+ says but not worried at all on that one ..
Back end conf schedule is ... UMASS, @TOL, BG, @Ball St, @Akron, CMU, @N.ILL ...
UMASS has alot of questions on their roster but I really like their QB sitch and I think they got quite a few 'last chance U' players to fill gaps that Kent didn't .. SP+ says its about a pick I think Umass has a good shot to Wax em ..
The other winnable stuff potentially is on the road B2B @Ball St and @Akron .. neither roster is very good but Ball St has a QB and Akron if there's one game they show up for its this one .. beat em by 3 TD's last year and Kent is undoubtably much worse while Akron might be about the same .. CMU seems potenitally improved and finale @N.ILL well I hope its not a dead spot for them .. for a team w very low ret pro N.ILL had alot of quality backups filling the roster, good coach and unless they pull a no show at home its tough to imagine they lose this one .. SP has Huskies as 16 pt dogs ..
SP+ originally came out with Kent State -27 a supreme outlier 3 points worse than the next worse team .. The new version seems to have compressed the bottom of the model scrunching the bad teams a little closer and projects 2.8 wins for the Zips .. Models using assumptions that are statistically valid over 130 FBS teams relies on basic assumption .. but deep in the garbage pile you gotta look at the situation close and trust yer gut .. mine says 1-11 or maybe 0-11 if Montees can't handle being a QB in this bad situation or gets hurt or anywhere else has any sorta starter injuries ..
Big picture this total seems low considering the potential major turnarounds for both offenses from change at QB .. Nico is a headliner that SP+ appears to be adjusting for in their recent ratings .. Utah bringing in Jean Claude VAN-DAM PIERRE from new mexico, one of my favorite QB's of last year is an absolute under the radar dude and it would make sense the models are still smelling the HORRID offense the Utes had last year and not recalculating for this dude, not to mention him with a quality group of offensive transfers .. Don't need to pick every unit but think MAJOR diff Utes offense this year starting week 1. DAMP is very VERY good at avoiding presssure and hitting deep down field and making D's pay on the ground. Very low sack rate while being chased all year last yr .. 5 sacks on 545 total run/pass att's = <1% .. and PFF pressure to sack on over 100 drop backs Damp 4.1% is #1 by .. the top 10 starts at 9% the mean is ~17% .. outlier type sack avoidance numbers .. Could be more accurate, not as many picks but pure brute strength by the QB carried NM from a team w an RSW of 1.5 LY to very near a bowl game and it was literally all 1 guy. it just adds up to a potential Juggernaut QB in P4 ranks that keeps the chains moving and no shock if the model gets run over by this dude... Model calls for 2 average offenses here and man I just don't think so!
UCLA's D is taking a major step up from last year .. they have a few guys and some portalers but they lost 2 guys to the draft and some quality NFL potential in each unit beyond them is gone .. plenty of decent prospects they could be a decent group .. The thing to like is the offense looks strapped with more proven players at RB / WR and of course the QB Nico might find himself right at home a year older and kindof a level down .. model calls for top 40 def and it could be ..
Utah's D also loses some major pieces they always reload sure and have such a sticky scheme and there's a chance that they frustrate Nico in this one .. But game's in LA and just feels like Nico & Co will find points in their own ways .. a 28-21 or so game would be a surprise .. SP+ Model gives Utes the benefit of the doubt with the top 16 Defense and it could be but they have pieces to find yet ..
Last thing to like is UCLA has an absolute ACE kicker and we love those because its so oft the diff .. Utah loses a major dude kicker but guy they have in is VERY highly rated from the kicking camps Chris Sailer Kicking has him a 6 which is the highest prospect rating and don't think we'll be botching many PAT's or other makable FG's on either side.. just another thing the model probably doesn't pick up ..
1
BRIDGE PLAY
UTAH / UCLA OVER 49.5 (CZR)
Big picture this total seems low considering the potential major turnarounds for both offenses from change at QB .. Nico is a headliner that SP+ appears to be adjusting for in their recent ratings .. Utah bringing in Jean Claude VAN-DAM PIERRE from new mexico, one of my favorite QB's of last year is an absolute under the radar dude and it would make sense the models are still smelling the HORRID offense the Utes had last year and not recalculating for this dude, not to mention him with a quality group of offensive transfers .. Don't need to pick every unit but think MAJOR diff Utes offense this year starting week 1. DAMP is very VERY good at avoiding presssure and hitting deep down field and making D's pay on the ground. Very low sack rate while being chased all year last yr .. 5 sacks on 545 total run/pass att's = <1% .. and PFF pressure to sack on over 100 drop backs Damp 4.1% is #1 by .. the top 10 starts at 9% the mean is ~17% .. outlier type sack avoidance numbers .. Could be more accurate, not as many picks but pure brute strength by the QB carried NM from a team w an RSW of 1.5 LY to very near a bowl game and it was literally all 1 guy. it just adds up to a potential Juggernaut QB in P4 ranks that keeps the chains moving and no shock if the model gets run over by this dude... Model calls for 2 average offenses here and man I just don't think so!
UCLA's D is taking a major step up from last year .. they have a few guys and some portalers but they lost 2 guys to the draft and some quality NFL potential in each unit beyond them is gone .. plenty of decent prospects they could be a decent group .. The thing to like is the offense looks strapped with more proven players at RB / WR and of course the QB Nico might find himself right at home a year older and kindof a level down .. model calls for top 40 def and it could be ..
Utah's D also loses some major pieces they always reload sure and have such a sticky scheme and there's a chance that they frustrate Nico in this one .. But game's in LA and just feels like Nico & Co will find points in their own ways .. a 28-21 or so game would be a surprise .. SP+ Model gives Utes the benefit of the doubt with the top 16 Defense and it could be but they have pieces to find yet ..
Last thing to like is UCLA has an absolute ACE kicker and we love those because its so oft the diff .. Utah loses a major dude kicker but guy they have in is VERY highly rated from the kicking camps Chris Sailer Kicking has him a 6 which is the highest prospect rating and don't think we'll be botching many PAT's or other makable FG's on either side.. just another thing the model probably doesn't pick up ..
BRIDGE PLAY UTAH / UCLA OVER 49.5 (CZR) Big picture this total seems low considering the potential major turnarounds for both offenses from change at QB .. Nico is a headliner that SP+ appears to be adjusting for in their recent ratings .. Utah bringing in Jean Claude VAN-DAM PIERRE from new mexico, one of my favorite QB's of last year is an absolute under the radar dude and it would make sense the models are still smelling the HORRID offense the Utes had last year and not recalculating for this dude, not to mention him with a quality group of offensive transfers .. Don't need to pick every unit but think MAJOR diff Utes offense this year starting week 1. DAMP is very VERY good at avoiding presssure and hitting deep down field and making D's pay on the ground. Very low sack rate while being chased all year last yr .. 5 sacks on 545 total run/pass att's = <1% .. and PFF pressure to sack on over 100 drop backs Damp 4.1% is #1 by .. the top 10 starts at 9% the mean is ~17% .. outlier type sack avoidance numbers .. Could be more accurate, not as many picks but pure brute strength by the QB carried NM from a team w an RSW of 1.5 LY to very near a bowl game and it was literally all 1 guy. it just adds up to a potential Juggernaut QB in P4 ranks that keeps the chains moving and no shock if the model gets run over by this dude... Model calls for 2 average offenses here and man I just don't think so! UCLA's D is taking a major step up from last year .. they have a few guys and some portalers but they lost 2 guys to the draft and some quality NFL potential in each unit beyond them is gone .. plenty of decent prospects they could be a decent group .. The thing to like is the offense looks strapped with more proven players at RB / WR and of course the QB Nico might find himself right at home a year older and kindof a level down .. model calls for top 40 def and it could be .. Utah's D also loses some major pieces they always reload sure and have such a sticky scheme and there's a chance that they frustrate Nico in this one .. But game's in LA and just feels like Nico & Co will find points in their own ways .. a 28-21 or so game would be a surprise .. SP+ Model gives Utes the benefit of the doubt with the top 16 Defense and it could be but they have pieces to find yet .. Last thing to like is UCLA has an absolute ACE kicker and we love those because its so oft the diff .. Utah loses a major dude kicker but guy they have in is VERY highly rated from the kicking camps Chris Sailer Kicking has him a 6 which is the highest prospect rating and don't think we'll be botching many PAT's or other makable FG's on either side.. just another thing the model probably doesn't pick up ..
This is one caught my eye too and it's moving up. But I got PTSD from that Hawaii vs Ucla opener last year over 52.
1
Quote Originally Posted by Bridge1:
BRIDGE PLAY UTAH / UCLA OVER 49.5 (CZR) Big picture this total seems low considering the potential major turnarounds for both offenses from change at QB .. Nico is a headliner that SP+ appears to be adjusting for in their recent ratings .. Utah bringing in Jean Claude VAN-DAM PIERRE from new mexico, one of my favorite QB's of last year is an absolute under the radar dude and it would make sense the models are still smelling the HORRID offense the Utes had last year and not recalculating for this dude, not to mention him with a quality group of offensive transfers .. Don't need to pick every unit but think MAJOR diff Utes offense this year starting week 1. DAMP is very VERY good at avoiding presssure and hitting deep down field and making D's pay on the ground. Very low sack rate while being chased all year last yr .. 5 sacks on 545 total run/pass att's = <1% .. and PFF pressure to sack on over 100 drop backs Damp 4.1% is #1 by .. the top 10 starts at 9% the mean is ~17% .. outlier type sack avoidance numbers .. Could be more accurate, not as many picks but pure brute strength by the QB carried NM from a team w an RSW of 1.5 LY to very near a bowl game and it was literally all 1 guy. it just adds up to a potential Juggernaut QB in P4 ranks that keeps the chains moving and no shock if the model gets run over by this dude... Model calls for 2 average offenses here and man I just don't think so! UCLA's D is taking a major step up from last year .. they have a few guys and some portalers but they lost 2 guys to the draft and some quality NFL potential in each unit beyond them is gone .. plenty of decent prospects they could be a decent group .. The thing to like is the offense looks strapped with more proven players at RB / WR and of course the QB Nico might find himself right at home a year older and kindof a level down .. model calls for top 40 def and it could be .. Utah's D also loses some major pieces they always reload sure and have such a sticky scheme and there's a chance that they frustrate Nico in this one .. But game's in LA and just feels like Nico & Co will find points in their own ways .. a 28-21 or so game would be a surprise .. SP+ Model gives Utes the benefit of the doubt with the top 16 Defense and it could be but they have pieces to find yet .. Last thing to like is UCLA has an absolute ACE kicker and we love those because its so oft the diff .. Utah loses a major dude kicker but guy they have in is VERY highly rated from the kicking camps Chris Sailer Kicking has him a 6 which is the highest prospect rating and don't think we'll be botching many PAT's or other makable FG's on either side.. just another thing the model probably doesn't pick up ..
This is one caught my eye too and it's moving up. But I got PTSD from that Hawaii vs Ucla opener last year over 52.
Big picture is the usually decently Sun Belt might struggle to find legit G5 teams this year .. We noticed last year with a very tight battle to the the champ game between GA-SO, SO.Bama, JMU, Marsh, G.SO, ULL, TX.State .. this league even made ULM look good for a hot minute .. ULL was solid enough and Marsh kinda snuck into the champ game and to everyone's shock Marsh walks off with a BLOWOUT WIN at Cajun field .. Fast forward to now where ret pro started off fairly low and post-spring the average is ~45% conf-wide .. S.Miss leads the way with 58% .. GO Eagles .. South Bama lost their DUDE QB/RB combo, ULL lost alot of really good players, Marshall basically moved to Hattisburg, etc nobody really has a sure thing roster that looks poised to step up big this year, tough to even know for sure who alot of the starting QB's are ..
JMU is not the team it was when they stormed the league but even last year after losing Cignetti to Indy who trusted his DUKES DUDES taking many of them along .. even with throttled production they turned in a really solid squad last year winning 8 games .. notable ones 70-50 bomber vs UNC and it wasn't even that close .. 63-7 v Ball St, lost @App St and a Squeeker to eventual champs Marshall and @G.SO and even @ULM.. very competitive in the conference but to them a MAJOR disappointment .. JMU loses some guys again this year but this is much more managable with their feet under them and the rest of the league so iffy... The goal is no doubt to win their 1ST BELT when it seems like they should have 2-3 in hand already .. MAJOR GOAL .. and the schedule lines up in a way with not the most difficult conf schedule but a couple big non-cons @Liberty, @Louisville and Wash State .. JMU is a proud program that believes they should be in the G5 playoff convo and that's not impossible this year .. the goals are way bigger than 7.5 ..
Bob Chesney is a great coach and reunited with Matt SLUKA at QB and retained their pretty solid QB from last year and added Richmond QB who won't collapse the position if called upon .. great to have 2+ reliable QB's playing ssn win overs .. RB room is 3 maybe 4 MAJOR dudes deep .. OL had quite a few injuries last year but ton of guys played and all landed very good PFF run and pass protection ratings which is not often seen, hat tip to the coaches .. Defense may not have the MAJOR dudes this year but its a decent group back and JMU always has a way of making guys better than expected just like last year with Eric O'neill 13 sackaholic and Khari Manns 11 sacks was a nobody till he arrived.. Definitely an element of trust with a team thats taking a number of FCS guys to fill gaps but Chesney knows what he's lookin for at that level and its just a program we can trust.
Toughest stuff on the schedule is @Louisville, @Lib @TX.State Wash State .. and they play the whose who of the conference but again conf seems pretty down and think its a lock down nationally ranked run game heading toward a bunch of bowling pins in The Belt this year .. GO DUKES
1
SEASON WINS
JAMES MADISON OVER 7.5 -120 (ESPN)
Big picture is the usually decently Sun Belt might struggle to find legit G5 teams this year .. We noticed last year with a very tight battle to the the champ game between GA-SO, SO.Bama, JMU, Marsh, G.SO, ULL, TX.State .. this league even made ULM look good for a hot minute .. ULL was solid enough and Marsh kinda snuck into the champ game and to everyone's shock Marsh walks off with a BLOWOUT WIN at Cajun field .. Fast forward to now where ret pro started off fairly low and post-spring the average is ~45% conf-wide .. S.Miss leads the way with 58% .. GO Eagles .. South Bama lost their DUDE QB/RB combo, ULL lost alot of really good players, Marshall basically moved to Hattisburg, etc nobody really has a sure thing roster that looks poised to step up big this year, tough to even know for sure who alot of the starting QB's are ..
JMU is not the team it was when they stormed the league but even last year after losing Cignetti to Indy who trusted his DUKES DUDES taking many of them along .. even with throttled production they turned in a really solid squad last year winning 8 games .. notable ones 70-50 bomber vs UNC and it wasn't even that close .. 63-7 v Ball St, lost @App St and a Squeeker to eventual champs Marshall and @G.SO and even @ULM.. very competitive in the conference but to them a MAJOR disappointment .. JMU loses some guys again this year but this is much more managable with their feet under them and the rest of the league so iffy... The goal is no doubt to win their 1ST BELT when it seems like they should have 2-3 in hand already .. MAJOR GOAL .. and the schedule lines up in a way with not the most difficult conf schedule but a couple big non-cons @Liberty, @Louisville and Wash State .. JMU is a proud program that believes they should be in the G5 playoff convo and that's not impossible this year .. the goals are way bigger than 7.5 ..
Bob Chesney is a great coach and reunited with Matt SLUKA at QB and retained their pretty solid QB from last year and added Richmond QB who won't collapse the position if called upon .. great to have 2+ reliable QB's playing ssn win overs .. RB room is 3 maybe 4 MAJOR dudes deep .. OL had quite a few injuries last year but ton of guys played and all landed very good PFF run and pass protection ratings which is not often seen, hat tip to the coaches .. Defense may not have the MAJOR dudes this year but its a decent group back and JMU always has a way of making guys better than expected just like last year with Eric O'neill 13 sackaholic and Khari Manns 11 sacks was a nobody till he arrived.. Definitely an element of trust with a team thats taking a number of FCS guys to fill gaps but Chesney knows what he's lookin for at that level and its just a program we can trust.
Toughest stuff on the schedule is @Louisville, @Lib @TX.State Wash State .. and they play the whose who of the conference but again conf seems pretty down and think its a lock down nationally ranked run game heading toward a bunch of bowling pins in The Belt this year .. GO DUKES
Yeah well I had Hawaii for the win so you can imagine my dismay .. Vandy/VA Tech was an under lock that went to OT and lost .. it happens .. and yeah UCLA's offense was total trash last year and how could it not have been lost pretty much everybody thats why we took them UNDER like 5.5 wins or something we did that one real early and went to like 4.5 or 4 by kickoff ..
But diff story here there's alot coming in for the Bru on that side beyond Nico .. I can't imagine he'd go there if there weren't any quality weapons around him so if he can run an offense at that level they shouldn't be in too bad a shape .. Its also possible Utah pitches a D that is just too much for him to handle but Utes aren't chalk full of major dudes on D they might have them emerge like always but we're still at below avg scoring here not too much to ask ... idk man I think you got 2 QB's that can square off in this one ..
0
@Laroja
Yeah well I had Hawaii for the win so you can imagine my dismay .. Vandy/VA Tech was an under lock that went to OT and lost .. it happens .. and yeah UCLA's offense was total trash last year and how could it not have been lost pretty much everybody thats why we took them UNDER like 5.5 wins or something we did that one real early and went to like 4.5 or 4 by kickoff ..
But diff story here there's alot coming in for the Bru on that side beyond Nico .. I can't imagine he'd go there if there weren't any quality weapons around him so if he can run an offense at that level they shouldn't be in too bad a shape .. Its also possible Utah pitches a D that is just too much for him to handle but Utes aren't chalk full of major dudes on D they might have them emerge like always but we're still at below avg scoring here not too much to ask ... idk man I think you got 2 QB's that can square off in this one ..
Normally don't mess with the big juice on ssn wins but I will for this one .. we have a team that is well off the SP+ / sportsbooks model radar with the potential of a huge turnaround .. Golden Hurricane, like the Golden Eagles above, have been marinating in Golden Showers for years and years now .. In comes coach Tre Lamb and his crew from East Tenn State a guy that has turned the fortunes around for multiple bottom dwelling teams in the FCS and in fairly short order .. G-Webb hadnt had a winning season in 6 years and in 3 years were conf co-champs, one year at ETSU had b2b 3-9 seasons and bumped them to 7-5 his one year there .. and here we are with an AAC team left for dead RSW 2.5 and a coach with an attitude for immediate win change and a roster profile to back it up ..
Not gunna get into every nook n cranny of the roster but they add 16 P4 transfers guys who didn't quite make it at that level and are looking for their shot to start and quite a few G5'ers with a proven track record 28 transfers total including a few of his ETSU guys from what was PFF's #7 overall graded defense LY D .. quite a few under the radar guys J'Dan Burnett at La Tech was a solid 2 year pass rush stud for them, coulda played a few spots .. Dominic Richardson was a real solid RB in '23 for Baylor in a crowded backfield with 500+ yds and 150 rec .. they otherwise return about 65% of their unit snaps from last year and you can tell there's gunna be good competitons for starting spots and maybe not highest quality depth but guys that can step in and play in a 2 maybe 3 deep at some spots .. just like at So Miss that's huge for a turnaround what's not huge is one guy playing all year ..
QB Kirk Francis I think had pretty decent numbers on a really bad all around team last 2 years .. but splitting reps w Cooper Legas last yr and 3 more QB's took minimal reps in multiple games.. coach never settled on one guy and the results were as expected and Kirk was the best one getting his shot this year .. Backup QB is a real concern but we can take a chance with such a low bar ..
Schedule gives us quite a few shots to make 3 wins, FCS Abaline was a solid team last year but lost their coaches and number of stars incl the QB .. @NMSU was terrible last yr and still got eaten up in the portal .. Temple looks like a 3rd W .. @FAU Kitley doesn't have much to work with in year 1, UAB home finale .. and a few teams that I doubt we're stuck banking on a W but Oreg State, @Army is not the same this yr, @ECU has some major questions on D .. and not saying they'll take down Tulane but the Wave is really not as good this year IMO and the lead in for them is NU, @S.Bama, Duke, @Ole Miss .. @Tulsa .. basically their G5 playoff resume proceeds and b2b roadies ... Tulane then has a bye followed by all their tough conf games ECU, Army, @UTSA, @Memphis .. that spot at Tulsa is maybe the biggest sure fire downer on the entire CFB schedule .. just saying there is a chance we're collecting a check by week 5..
1
SSN WINS
TULSA OVER 2.5 -180 (ESPN)
Normally don't mess with the big juice on ssn wins but I will for this one .. we have a team that is well off the SP+ / sportsbooks model radar with the potential of a huge turnaround .. Golden Hurricane, like the Golden Eagles above, have been marinating in Golden Showers for years and years now .. In comes coach Tre Lamb and his crew from East Tenn State a guy that has turned the fortunes around for multiple bottom dwelling teams in the FCS and in fairly short order .. G-Webb hadnt had a winning season in 6 years and in 3 years were conf co-champs, one year at ETSU had b2b 3-9 seasons and bumped them to 7-5 his one year there .. and here we are with an AAC team left for dead RSW 2.5 and a coach with an attitude for immediate win change and a roster profile to back it up ..
Not gunna get into every nook n cranny of the roster but they add 16 P4 transfers guys who didn't quite make it at that level and are looking for their shot to start and quite a few G5'ers with a proven track record 28 transfers total including a few of his ETSU guys from what was PFF's #7 overall graded defense LY D .. quite a few under the radar guys J'Dan Burnett at La Tech was a solid 2 year pass rush stud for them, coulda played a few spots .. Dominic Richardson was a real solid RB in '23 for Baylor in a crowded backfield with 500+ yds and 150 rec .. they otherwise return about 65% of their unit snaps from last year and you can tell there's gunna be good competitons for starting spots and maybe not highest quality depth but guys that can step in and play in a 2 maybe 3 deep at some spots .. just like at So Miss that's huge for a turnaround what's not huge is one guy playing all year ..
QB Kirk Francis I think had pretty decent numbers on a really bad all around team last 2 years .. but splitting reps w Cooper Legas last yr and 3 more QB's took minimal reps in multiple games.. coach never settled on one guy and the results were as expected and Kirk was the best one getting his shot this year .. Backup QB is a real concern but we can take a chance with such a low bar ..
Schedule gives us quite a few shots to make 3 wins, FCS Abaline was a solid team last year but lost their coaches and number of stars incl the QB .. @NMSU was terrible last yr and still got eaten up in the portal .. Temple looks like a 3rd W .. @FAU Kitley doesn't have much to work with in year 1, UAB home finale .. and a few teams that I doubt we're stuck banking on a W but Oreg State, @Army is not the same this yr, @ECU has some major questions on D .. and not saying they'll take down Tulane but the Wave is really not as good this year IMO and the lead in for them is NU, @S.Bama, Duke, @Ole Miss .. @Tulsa .. basically their G5 playoff resume proceeds and b2b roadies ... Tulane then has a bye followed by all their tough conf games ECU, Army, @UTSA, @Memphis .. that spot at Tulsa is maybe the biggest sure fire downer on the entire CFB schedule .. just saying there is a chance we're collecting a check by week 5..
If you can't get it there should find some 250's still .. but move quick because seen some 200's 150's and FD put em out at 130X .. which you would be fine with but something about calling a 250 or 300 that makes the brag so much better lol ..
Anyway I think AAC like other G5 leagues keep taking a step back again this yr .. Tulane can't be as good losing the MAJOR DUDE QB/RB/WR trio .. still alot to like but its 300-1 that theyre as good as last year lol .. Army loses Captain America and quite a few guys hit the portal / graduated .. might be good, won't be as good .. Memphis' roster does look good but it did last year too when they and Boise were basically anointed as the G5 playoff teams to beat pre-ssn LY with a huge top 25 ranking and they were not bad on O but their D Stuuuunk .. now losing Henny and lotta other shake ups and if one of the QB's is not taking over they can be mediocre quick .. Navy is almost the odds on fav because of Horvath and we remember them running over Army and Oklahoma but remember losing to Rice last year 24-10? or Tulane 35-zip? this team went from toast of the town to dead in the water back to a toast .. anything happens to Horvath the team spirals and any team that can force them to pass can also beat them pretty easily .. UTSA does look good n ready for a bounce back but I thought that last yr too and it was another bounce backward.. RR's haven't been nearly the same on O since Will Stein was there on offense .. ECU lost so many guys that I can't see it being an unbeatable force like they coulda/shoulda/but never were last yr ..
Just saying all the BIG obstacles to take the Conf don't seem insurmountable this year and maybe a team or two surprises and become an unstoppable force .. but I'm not calling for it .. Tulsa has a great profile to get turned around quick with alot of P4 transfers, alot of guys playing 2 years ago I assume got squeezed out of their spot last year and some unknown commodities but a vastly more talented group and better coaches now clearly going for that Instant Indy turn around .. not saying we called it w the hoosiers but we knew something good was brewin there .. and this here is that same 'right now' portal approach .. It's a true long shot that could fall apart quick but the mountain in the conf is not nearly as massive and there's talent for a big turnaround .. And it wouldn't be the first rabbit out of a hat I've handed you .. remember? ..
0
OH AND ...
CONF FUTURES
TULSA 300-1 (DK)
If you can't get it there should find some 250's still .. but move quick because seen some 200's 150's and FD put em out at 130X .. which you would be fine with but something about calling a 250 or 300 that makes the brag so much better lol ..
Anyway I think AAC like other G5 leagues keep taking a step back again this yr .. Tulane can't be as good losing the MAJOR DUDE QB/RB/WR trio .. still alot to like but its 300-1 that theyre as good as last year lol .. Army loses Captain America and quite a few guys hit the portal / graduated .. might be good, won't be as good .. Memphis' roster does look good but it did last year too when they and Boise were basically anointed as the G5 playoff teams to beat pre-ssn LY with a huge top 25 ranking and they were not bad on O but their D Stuuuunk .. now losing Henny and lotta other shake ups and if one of the QB's is not taking over they can be mediocre quick .. Navy is almost the odds on fav because of Horvath and we remember them running over Army and Oklahoma but remember losing to Rice last year 24-10? or Tulane 35-zip? this team went from toast of the town to dead in the water back to a toast .. anything happens to Horvath the team spirals and any team that can force them to pass can also beat them pretty easily .. UTSA does look good n ready for a bounce back but I thought that last yr too and it was another bounce backward.. RR's haven't been nearly the same on O since Will Stein was there on offense .. ECU lost so many guys that I can't see it being an unbeatable force like they coulda/shoulda/but never were last yr ..
Just saying all the BIG obstacles to take the Conf don't seem insurmountable this year and maybe a team or two surprises and become an unstoppable force .. but I'm not calling for it .. Tulsa has a great profile to get turned around quick with alot of P4 transfers, alot of guys playing 2 years ago I assume got squeezed out of their spot last year and some unknown commodities but a vastly more talented group and better coaches now clearly going for that Instant Indy turn around .. not saying we called it w the hoosiers but we knew something good was brewin there .. and this here is that same 'right now' portal approach .. It's a true long shot that could fall apart quick but the mountain in the conf is not nearly as massive and there's talent for a big turnaround .. And it wouldn't be the first rabbit out of a hat I've handed you .. remember? ..
Very tough to get 9 in the B12 even with a schedule that lacks some fireworks .. we still have a BYU team that shined and struggled last year and while very tough to take down they were still beatable .. there is also some news about Retzlaff out there and I'm looking at that as just a distraction if he really gets charged for what they're saying think the banks will be beggin to settle lol ..
BYU struggled with their run game in quite a few games leading to some difficult or tricky and they bring back LJ Martin he is a real dude but they also lose 3 pretty good OL's and don't really add much to say their run game will find a stronger rhythm next year .. Pass D was also on fire or beatable . which is kindof the story of this team, relied alot on big havoc plays and if they didn't show up they could lose .. They bring back a few of their big time havoc producers like LB'a Glasker and Kelly and add one in DL Keanu Tanuvasa from Utah .. But they also lose like 7 big havoc producers off the D, DE Tyler Batty, LB Harrison Taggart, DB Marque Collins were HAVOC MACHINES all year and I count 6 other big producers I wouldn't mind having back this year .. lose about 57% of what I would say are their good plays and 40% of their BIG PLAYS and it could be recouped but I think last years' D was a pretty special group and very tough to repeat, particularly with the quantity of playmakers leaving ..
The schedule looks favorable missing showstoppers ASU and K-State .. Early on you got FCS nobody and Stanford at home and we expect Tree to suck major ballz this year but there's uncertainty baked into them and that is a must win .. you got a must win @ECU but quite a look ahead going B2B roadies @Colorado on deck and maaaan and off the cuff sure thing Buffs are toast but Deion didn't forget the bowl game he gottem in a great spot at home .. Cougs get WV at home again lot of uncertainty for a 2 TD must win fav, then @AZ massive look ahead before the HOLY WAR and I think Wildcats roster is not in terrible shape lot to like on offense plenty of experience but again another must win on their schedule ~10 pt favs from SP+, very losable spot .. you got Utah for the holy war and then one of the worst spots on the CFB slate after their big game @Iowa State 1st B12 trip to Ames and clones off a bye .. Cougs get a bye then back to another tough roadie @TxTech they're using brut force bucks to make them a real contender .. got TCU at home and @Cincy is a real dangerous spot .. finale at home vs UCF seems like a lock down win .. spot adjusted I think its 3 lock wins .. 2-3 more as a TDish fav which is to say very potentially losable .. 5-6 as slight fav to slight dog 50/50 ball .. and I'm marking trip to Ames as a likely loss the spot is so bad .. just too many must wins vs uncertain opponents and too many trip up spots .. too many 50/50 balls .. if BYU isint every bit their big pre-ssn rating then I think very likely end up 6,7 or 8 wins think its worth the extra juice ..
1
SEASON WINS
BYU UNDER 8.5 -157 (FAN)
Very tough to get 9 in the B12 even with a schedule that lacks some fireworks .. we still have a BYU team that shined and struggled last year and while very tough to take down they were still beatable .. there is also some news about Retzlaff out there and I'm looking at that as just a distraction if he really gets charged for what they're saying think the banks will be beggin to settle lol ..
BYU struggled with their run game in quite a few games leading to some difficult or tricky and they bring back LJ Martin he is a real dude but they also lose 3 pretty good OL's and don't really add much to say their run game will find a stronger rhythm next year .. Pass D was also on fire or beatable . which is kindof the story of this team, relied alot on big havoc plays and if they didn't show up they could lose .. They bring back a few of their big time havoc producers like LB'a Glasker and Kelly and add one in DL Keanu Tanuvasa from Utah .. But they also lose like 7 big havoc producers off the D, DE Tyler Batty, LB Harrison Taggart, DB Marque Collins were HAVOC MACHINES all year and I count 6 other big producers I wouldn't mind having back this year .. lose about 57% of what I would say are their good plays and 40% of their BIG PLAYS and it could be recouped but I think last years' D was a pretty special group and very tough to repeat, particularly with the quantity of playmakers leaving ..
The schedule looks favorable missing showstoppers ASU and K-State .. Early on you got FCS nobody and Stanford at home and we expect Tree to suck major ballz this year but there's uncertainty baked into them and that is a must win .. you got a must win @ECU but quite a look ahead going B2B roadies @Colorado on deck and maaaan and off the cuff sure thing Buffs are toast but Deion didn't forget the bowl game he gottem in a great spot at home .. Cougs get WV at home again lot of uncertainty for a 2 TD must win fav, then @AZ massive look ahead before the HOLY WAR and I think Wildcats roster is not in terrible shape lot to like on offense plenty of experience but again another must win on their schedule ~10 pt favs from SP+, very losable spot .. you got Utah for the holy war and then one of the worst spots on the CFB slate after their big game @Iowa State 1st B12 trip to Ames and clones off a bye .. Cougs get a bye then back to another tough roadie @TxTech they're using brut force bucks to make them a real contender .. got TCU at home and @Cincy is a real dangerous spot .. finale at home vs UCF seems like a lock down win .. spot adjusted I think its 3 lock wins .. 2-3 more as a TDish fav which is to say very potentially losable .. 5-6 as slight fav to slight dog 50/50 ball .. and I'm marking trip to Ames as a likely loss the spot is so bad .. just too many must wins vs uncertain opponents and too many trip up spots .. too many 50/50 balls .. if BYU isint every bit their big pre-ssn rating then I think very likely end up 6,7 or 8 wins think its worth the extra juice ..
I'd be remiss not to mention the Retzlaff situation, facing some really nasty sounding SA accusations and its starting to play out in the media with civil lawsuits, you have the police not taking the accusations seriously / trying to bury it storyline too ... even if the bad parts are provably untrue BYU still has a no F'ing around honor code so there's still a potential problem .. And un-buryable story now media will be all over it as we get closer to the season and BYU has gotta respond in some way.. could be 1 game honor code suspension .. could be longer susp pending investigations, could be the accuser throws out some evidence like we saw w Shannon but even w out that BYU in such a tough spot w this one, that would be wild .. Could be Retzlaff takes a red shirt to deal with the legal stuff .. and for BYU its the bad press of not 'believing all women', or taking the accusations seriously etc etc etc ... or the bad press of persecuting the religions outsider, media spent all year promoting his incongruent beliefs how wonderful that is .. its just such a predictably unavoidably bad story no matter the turn .. I think we do end up seeing Retzlaff play but best case for the Coogs its a MASSIVE distraction... worst case .. woof ... and I mean MAJOR WOOF ..
Whether dude plays or not my play stands on its own even with the juiced 8.5 number .. we could get +Juice going under 7.5 that feels good if we knew Ratz wasn't playing .. Caesars pulled the RSW total on account of the situation and expect others probably might .. My suggestion is either get in early at 8.5 lay the juice now .. but just as good a move maybe better might be to wait and see whether Retz plays and should get better odds on BYU Under 8.5, although I think generally this number prob moves to 8 some pt before the season even w Retz cleared .. just toooo many wins for a wild B12 schedule .. and if you wait you'll miss the potential A-BOMB lock it up pre-ssn bookie bunker buster scenario of their QB not playing .. If we get Retz playing and 8.5 more normal odds later I'd have no prob doubling down ..
Please no added commentary on the Retz sitch that will attract any mod attn in here.. I had threads disappear in the past when folks offered wrong think opines .. not retyping all this stuff lol I'll be long gone if that happens again .. thx in advance ...
Good luck!
1
^^ BYU CONT'D ...
I'd be remiss not to mention the Retzlaff situation, facing some really nasty sounding SA accusations and its starting to play out in the media with civil lawsuits, you have the police not taking the accusations seriously / trying to bury it storyline too ... even if the bad parts are provably untrue BYU still has a no F'ing around honor code so there's still a potential problem .. And un-buryable story now media will be all over it as we get closer to the season and BYU has gotta respond in some way.. could be 1 game honor code suspension .. could be longer susp pending investigations, could be the accuser throws out some evidence like we saw w Shannon but even w out that BYU in such a tough spot w this one, that would be wild .. Could be Retzlaff takes a red shirt to deal with the legal stuff .. and for BYU its the bad press of not 'believing all women', or taking the accusations seriously etc etc etc ... or the bad press of persecuting the religions outsider, media spent all year promoting his incongruent beliefs how wonderful that is .. its just such a predictably unavoidably bad story no matter the turn .. I think we do end up seeing Retzlaff play but best case for the Coogs its a MASSIVE distraction... worst case .. woof ... and I mean MAJOR WOOF ..
Whether dude plays or not my play stands on its own even with the juiced 8.5 number .. we could get +Juice going under 7.5 that feels good if we knew Ratz wasn't playing .. Caesars pulled the RSW total on account of the situation and expect others probably might .. My suggestion is either get in early at 8.5 lay the juice now .. but just as good a move maybe better might be to wait and see whether Retz plays and should get better odds on BYU Under 8.5, although I think generally this number prob moves to 8 some pt before the season even w Retz cleared .. just toooo many wins for a wild B12 schedule .. and if you wait you'll miss the potential A-BOMB lock it up pre-ssn bookie bunker buster scenario of their QB not playing .. If we get Retz playing and 8.5 more normal odds later I'd have no prob doubling down ..
Please no added commentary on the Retz sitch that will attract any mod attn in here.. I had threads disappear in the past when folks offered wrong think opines .. not retyping all this stuff lol I'll be long gone if that happens again .. thx in advance ...
Like the new Fresno coaching staff alot don't know if they turn in a big year but big crew with the old NDSU coach on top I give it an A+.. They got some of their studs to back out of the portal and think they're positioned for a decent year .. This is a BIG opener for his team if they want to get back to the "any team any place" identity that any G5 team needs to stay consistently relevant .. KU has been underwhelming vs some of their non-con comp losing to UNLV last year, real squeeker vs Nevada 2 years ago, NEV Stuuuunk that year baaad ... Jalon Daniels is a total gamer when on but 14td's 12 picks last year, terrible start to the year before turning it on .. we'll see which guy shows up ..
Didn't dive as far into KU but roster review shows me they lost quite a bit off a team that was fairly hit and miss last year .. recall major losing streak to start the year followed by great high level play down the stretch .. They do add Leshon Williams who was supposed to start LY after a big 900 rush yds year in '23 but took a RS when Kaleb Johnson came outta nowhere .. WR unit needs guys to step up, D has talent and some production back but lost a crap ton lotta good players out the door and I count 15 multi year starters or very heavy contributors so the legacy and new guys gotta team up to replace the action ..
Fresno is changing things up on offense to pro-style which is something to keep an eye on I never liked this for college .. EJ Warner comes from that system at Rice and he's the expected starter having already sent the main backup packing to the FCS .. but will be another fall comp from the Sac State xfer Conklin .. The good news is Fresno has a MAJOR DUDE emerging at RB in Bryson Donelson big spring story .. they have their solid backup in Gilliam and we'll see Rayshon Luke from AZ in the Fall - its a really strong run unit .. the TE unit is lookin 4 deep also .. big questions on the OL they have guys but only one sure thing starter right now .. WR is another they really need guys stepping up .. but its smash mouth NDSU style football and sounds like the D has looked great in the spring even w a few proj starters sitting out.. Nick Bendetto pitched a great D at N.Illinois last year and they're moving quick finding guys this time real good vibe on that side .
Seems this could go a few ways but I'll take that when getting over 2 free TD's, KU could very easily come out struggling and this would be a real dangerous game for them if they did .. good luck!
0
SMALLER
KU / FRESNO +14.5
Like the new Fresno coaching staff alot don't know if they turn in a big year but big crew with the old NDSU coach on top I give it an A+.. They got some of their studs to back out of the portal and think they're positioned for a decent year .. This is a BIG opener for his team if they want to get back to the "any team any place" identity that any G5 team needs to stay consistently relevant .. KU has been underwhelming vs some of their non-con comp losing to UNLV last year, real squeeker vs Nevada 2 years ago, NEV Stuuuunk that year baaad ... Jalon Daniels is a total gamer when on but 14td's 12 picks last year, terrible start to the year before turning it on .. we'll see which guy shows up ..
Didn't dive as far into KU but roster review shows me they lost quite a bit off a team that was fairly hit and miss last year .. recall major losing streak to start the year followed by great high level play down the stretch .. They do add Leshon Williams who was supposed to start LY after a big 900 rush yds year in '23 but took a RS when Kaleb Johnson came outta nowhere .. WR unit needs guys to step up, D has talent and some production back but lost a crap ton lotta good players out the door and I count 15 multi year starters or very heavy contributors so the legacy and new guys gotta team up to replace the action ..
Fresno is changing things up on offense to pro-style which is something to keep an eye on I never liked this for college .. EJ Warner comes from that system at Rice and he's the expected starter having already sent the main backup packing to the FCS .. but will be another fall comp from the Sac State xfer Conklin .. The good news is Fresno has a MAJOR DUDE emerging at RB in Bryson Donelson big spring story .. they have their solid backup in Gilliam and we'll see Rayshon Luke from AZ in the Fall - its a really strong run unit .. the TE unit is lookin 4 deep also .. big questions on the OL they have guys but only one sure thing starter right now .. WR is another they really need guys stepping up .. but its smash mouth NDSU style football and sounds like the D has looked great in the spring even w a few proj starters sitting out.. Nick Bendetto pitched a great D at N.Illinois last year and they're moving quick finding guys this time real good vibe on that side .
Seems this could go a few ways but I'll take that when getting over 2 free TD's, KU could very easily come out struggling and this would be a real dangerous game for them if they did .. good luck!
We got totals and ML's up at Fan D and no better time to have fun with the Bridge Special fun bets than when these books drop the week 0/1 lines lol .. Fan gives us better odds for taking the fav/under or dog/over combos and depending on the size of the line/total it can give us something worth biting .. I think all these have a decent shot ie Michigan covers their big spread but I can see it staying under 52 for a bigger odds hit .. and one I kinda like is Mizz State with a major dude QB and no defense at all .. think its safe to say if they cover the 32.5 that total probably ends up in the stratosphere .. same for Hawaii they have a solid QB prospect form LY, and just brought in another well rated xfer from UCLA looking for playing time .. and AZ with I think Fifi finds a way to have a good year with Wysong coming and they have quite a few targets .. If hawaii can pull an upset funny feeling that goes over the top E-Z .. good luck!
FUN BETS
MICH -34.5 / U51.5 +407 PENN.ST -45.5 / U59.5 +466 MIZZ.ST +32.5 / O57.5 +320 HAWAII ML / O52.5 +661
0
We got totals and ML's up at Fan D and no better time to have fun with the Bridge Special fun bets than when these books drop the week 0/1 lines lol .. Fan gives us better odds for taking the fav/under or dog/over combos and depending on the size of the line/total it can give us something worth biting .. I think all these have a decent shot ie Michigan covers their big spread but I can see it staying under 52 for a bigger odds hit .. and one I kinda like is Mizz State with a major dude QB and no defense at all .. think its safe to say if they cover the 32.5 that total probably ends up in the stratosphere .. same for Hawaii they have a solid QB prospect form LY, and just brought in another well rated xfer from UCLA looking for playing time .. and AZ with I think Fifi finds a way to have a good year with Wysong coming and they have quite a few targets .. If hawaii can pull an upset funny feeling that goes over the top E-Z .. good luck!
FUN BETS
MICH -34.5 / U51.5 +407 PENN.ST -45.5 / U59.5 +466 MIZZ.ST +32.5 / O57.5 +320 HAWAII ML / O52.5 +661
love the write ups Bridge great work. Only have one bet Ohio St under 10.5 wins. I realize they will be stacked again but lost a ton. 14 guys to the draft 7 in the first 3 rounds. New OC New DC New QB. 3 real tough games Texas & Penn St at home & at Mich. Im high on Illinois this year I believe that will be another tough road game. can't wait for the season ordered my season tickets for Hawaii rainbows. Will also be going to the Mich vs Nebraska game. Nebraska better be 3-0 going into that game.
1
love the write ups Bridge great work. Only have one bet Ohio St under 10.5 wins. I realize they will be stacked again but lost a ton. 14 guys to the draft 7 in the first 3 rounds. New OC New DC New QB. 3 real tough games Texas & Penn St at home & at Mich. Im high on Illinois this year I believe that will be another tough road game. can't wait for the season ordered my season tickets for Hawaii rainbows. Will also be going to the Mich vs Nebraska game. Nebraska better be 3-0 going into that game.
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bridge is in the lab deep diving the college leagues. 
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