bowl stuff.....

"WARNING:  if you like Wazzu here...prepare to be driven crazy by Leach...several times...best case?... seriously...would be for Wazzu to be BEHIND early...as he doesn't even try and protect a lead....bowls seemingly give him cause to embrace his inner mad scientist ...."

adding small play SMiss / UW over 51'

INDEPENDENCE BOWL

TULSA (6-6/7-5/6-6) vs. VIRGINIA TECH (6-6/6-6/6-6)

Shreveport, Louisiana (Field Turf)
  *75 / 25% rain late / 15 mph

Favorite has covered 8/9 Ind Bowls
  *Tulsa's last bowl 2012...VT beat Cinn 33-17 LY
   Beamer is 10-12 / 10-12/ 6-4 fav

Same here...Hokies the much better team...
  *IF fully focused....they roll

BUT...MORE Beamer man love?....he's already had TWO going away parties
  *home vs UNC...then final game at Virginia....NOW Hokies are in SHREVEPORT (toilet)....VT FULLY FOCUSED for 4 quarters?
 I don't think so........

$  Tulsa with terrible D yes....but Hokie O is WEAK as well
     Tulsa O is very explosive / capable of big plays > Hokie D is NOT good at preventing big plays (#117)
     Tulsa covered all their road games...usually with late TD's....which is what I think we see here....any win here is fine for Hokies.....Tulsa +14 is my early play
 
    



FOSTER FARMS BOWL

NEBRASKA (5-7/5-7/7-5) vs. UCLA (8-4/5-6-1/3-9)

Santa Clara, CA (Grass Field)
  *42 / clear / < 5 mph

Nebraska- LY lost to USC 45-42
  *Riley top bowl coach 6-2/5-3
UCLA- LY beat Kan St 40-35
  *Mora 2-1/2-1

same here...UCLA the much better team...but once looking at a play-off / NYD bowl at worst
  *here they are facing 5-7 Nebraska in Santa Clara ...wtf

Huskers better team than you think....ranked higher than UCLA in FEI efficiency...(#33 > #34)...better ST as well. ..only allow 113 yds/g on the ground (3.7) but don't rush passer well and will give up big plays
     *beat Michigan St...lost close games to Iowa...Wisky and NW

$  I think Huskers will be super pumped here...and more than capable of keeping this one close or winning outright..
Nebraska +7 was my early play..................

Ironically....he's done a great job as a head coach....at TT > now maybe Wazzu.....in long run
 *but really he (should be) just an OC....his ultimate GOAL?....to move the football .....not really TO WIN GAMES...........
  *someone....needs to have veto power .........he's been so good as a play caller/game planner / in-game adjustments.....he's been able to get away with it........

I like his quote...

To the question....."why did you go for it on 4th down?

"To overcome the disappointment of not making it on third down."

Brilliant analysis starting with Under UConn/Marshall right through Nebraska. Thanks for the hard work and sharing.

So far...

favorites are 13-5 SU / 10-8 ATS
  *12/18 games have gone OVER

1H - fav are 10-4-4 SU / 9-9 ATS
  *10/18 have gone OVER
2H - fav are 10-6-2 SU / 9-9 ATS
  *10/18 OVER

How many times did the favorite LOSE the game if up (or tied) at the half?  
  * 4X...out of 14 (29%)
If the dog was up or tied at half...how many times did they win the game SU?
  * 4X...out of 8


AAC      1-3 ATS
ACC      1-2
B10       1-1
B12         -
CUSA    4-2
Ind         0-1
MAC      4-2
MTW     4-1
P12       3-2
SEC        -
SBT      1-3


few trends....

ACC vs P12 -  1-10 SU / 3-8 ATS
                     *vs B10...the dog is 13-1-1 ATS
CUSA-       18-9-1 ATS run
                     *vs MAC..the fav is 15-2 ATS
MAC-          the dog is 10-2 ATS
MTW-         12-6 ATS vs P5 teams
SB-             dogs are 14-6-1 ATS


updated card..................
 *considering added plays in-game / 2H.... are 6-1 or so
  ( BG-2' L...Neb +3...USF / WKU over...Tulsa TT over...Akron / USU over...Temple 3rd qtr....WM 4th qtr...App St)
  $  making me about 18-5
      *which only means I will probably be WRONG a bunch of times
       the rest of the way...........



TOP PLAYS

Ole Miss -4
Oregon +1'

ONE UNIT

Duke  +3            W
Tulsa  +14          W
Wazzu -2'           W
Nebraska +7       W
Temple +1           L
USF  +3              L
Boise -3             W
BGreen -5           L
Baylor  +3
Wash -2'/LSU -1
WVirg  -1

smaller

WM -2'                               W
New Mexico  +10               W
La Tech -1'                          W
USF / WKU 1H under 34    W
Akron +4' 1H                      W
Ga Southern BG over 63'  W
Cinn   ML                             L
UW / SMiss  OVER 51'      W
USC -3
Memphis +3
Hou +7
Texas A&M +5
Clemson +4
NW +7
Penn St +7
Ohio St / ND over 55
WV / ASU 1H under 32

1129ken   thanks man Happy Holidays.............

DoubleUp   much appreciated BOL............

Thorpe      I don't think he held any OC job more than 1 year...
  * well...he left Kentucky to be OC at OU....stayed one year because he was offered HC job at TT.....OU won national title the next year with HIS offense (Mangino was OC)
  ADMIT his genius Thorpe..............
put yourself....a college nerd  that loves watching football (his case BYU offense)....in his shoes and imagine his ascent...

1986 he got his law degree...no football experience / no connections.....in 10 years or so he's OC at Kentucky.....1999 he's OC at OU.............keeping in mind he's WEIRD ....not a polished azz-kisser type

2015?.....Bob Stoops has to hire a Leach guy to re-install Leach's offense ....that he put in in 1999....POOF!....in play-offs...direction of program turned around..............

Happy Holidays ....BOL Thorpe...............

 

anybody get the Indiana / Duke score?.............
  *I just put the W down in advance > didn't catch the game......

Lessee here....a hard fought game....down to last possession
  *one team (3-4 years) desperate for a bowl W......other simply trying to MAKE A BOWL (same 3-4 years)....HC just trying to keep his job
  *and you tell me Duke lucked out again? (now an 80% betting winner on the road).....note > Hoosiers about 35%....forever finding ways to LOSE games.........
  *you see how Indiana.....just happy to be there....came out...
   took 'em a quarter or so to figure out...hey wait a minute....we
   can win this game wtf....> BTW kick-off return killed 'em .....not the missed / made FG

NEXT YEAR.....unless playing a tough / prepared team like Duke maybe...they (should be) be ready to WIN
  *Duke?.....wouldn't fade...just be reluctant to 'play-on' as favorite...now that they have their bowl W....1st since Bay of Pigs.....construction of Berlin Wall began.....seems like  .........  

Hey brotha. Hope the holidays are treating you well. Any play on the Navy/Pitt game today?

just small stuff Achilles....................




MILITARY BOWL

PITTSBURGH (8-4/6-6/5-7)  vs . NAVY (10-2/8-4/5-6-1)

2:30p E  Annapolis, Maryland (Grass Field)
  *44 deg / cloudy / no rain / 15 mph....wind chill 35 ish

1)  Navy home game

2)  Navy the more veteran team
      *O - 10 Sr/1 Jr start
       D - 4 Sr/4 Jr/3 So
         *only 10 underclassmen in 2 deep/no Fr
    Pitt O- 2 Sr /5 Jr /1 So / 3 Fr
         D- 5 Sr / 3 Jr / 2 So / 1 Fr
           *18 underclassmen in 2 deep / 11 FR

3)  NOT...the 'preferred' role for Navy
     *21-28 ATS as a favorite / 7-15 ATS with rest (opponents have extra prep time)
      Ken N 3-3 SU/ATS in bowls...1st bowl as HC for Narduzzi

4)  Navy last played 12/12...Pitt 11/27
     *advantage NAVY....note Pitt a slow starter anyway

5)  Pitt has played an option attack already...
     *Ga Tech - GT 376 rushing (9.4/rush)....4-5 runs of 50+ (all on 1st down)
        *shut them down 2H tho

6)  common opponent in Irish
    *Navy D (away) allowed 41 points/ 499 TO...27 FD/4.4 per rush..9.1  per pass att
     Pitt D (home) allowed 30 pts   / 437 TO...22 FD/4.2 per rush..10.1 per pass stt
   
    *Navy O - 24 pts / 340 TO /16 FD...6.5/rush...22 yds passing ....3 TO's
     Pitt O - 30 pts / 398 TO / 18 FD..5.6/rush...223 yds passing

7)  TO's -  Navy #2 at +17...Pitt #51 at +2
    pace-  Navy #54...Pitt #89
      note: possessions/game Navy #128 at 10.5...Pitt #120 at 11.8
            pts/poss. - Navy #1 at 3.6...Pitt #53 at 2.4
   ST- Navy #69...Pitt #19

8) other....
    *PITT - WEAK RZ D....Navy great RZ O
      Navy RZ D...better than Pitt RZ O as well

      Navy fast starter / Pitt slow
       *19-12 1H score...Pitt 12-16
        2H Navy 16-11...Pitt  14-7
  
9) FINAL GAME for Navy QB Reynolds...all top rushers are Sr's
      Pitt's - 2 Fr..1 So ...1 Jr

$  Tough call here....Reynolds last game at home vs a young team..so I think Navy wins ... esp off 2 bad games (Houston and Army)...plus Pitt has been sitting around about 2 weeks more than Navy....really for me only a strong lean Navy / under maybe the best play
  BUT.....Pitt a slow starter....Navy a fast starter at home...Pitt D MUCH better 2H...Navy D better 1H / fades a bit 2H
  * so I'll play Navy -1 1H small...play off that 2H (Pitt and/or UNDER )....in case I have it backasswards (Pitt up 1H > Navy comes back)

check out these thread titles.................
  *tho most by same knucklehead it seems

Leache is the worst coach i have even seen

is washington state trying to throw the game away?

Leach has no clock management

You can tell washington st is not going to win or cover

Leache already showing why he blows

forgot..

PITT OC Jim Chaney is GONE.....to Georgia

Congrats on all the winners so far!  Would love to hear more thoughts on Clemson/OU. 

QUICK LANE BOWL

CENTRAL MICHIGAN (7-5/8-3-1/5-7)  vs . MINNESOTA (5-7/6-6/6-6)

5:00p E  Detroit, Michigan (Dome; Field Turf)
    *ESPN 2
 
Detroit bowl (had several names)
  *dogs are 7-1 ATS...MAC teams have lost 6/7 SU

CM-  LY lost to WKU...2-2 SU / 3-1 ATS in Detroit
      *should have crowd edge here

Minn-  DC now HC (interim > now hired)....OC fired already
      *lost last 5 bowls SU...LY L to Mizzou 33-17

1st thought should be UNDER here..
  *CM can't run at all...passes very well > Minny D weak(er) vs run / strong vs pass...plus shut down CB
  *Minny can't throw...just decent running game > CM strong vs run / weaker vs pass
      NOTE: both D's limit big plays....CM #1 in limiting plays over 20 yards...Minny #2

in-game / halftime stuff-
  *CM-  O starts slow....great 3rd / D same...tough 2H (#5 scoring 2H D)
  *Minn O better 2H / D solid all 4 qtrs


$  I liked CM here at near 7....farted around too long
    *4' not bad...CM ML may in fact work....I don't see how Minny is too fired up here....PLUS....they played some close games vs non P5 teams (won 23-20 vs Col St...27-24 vs Ohio..10-7 vs Kent St)
     BUT....The firing of his OC tells me Minny will stress O here...so (esp INSIDE) I look for a higher scoring game...CM should be able to trade points.....as Minny D may not be focused for 4 quarters here....
      *small play (even money)..... CM +10' / over 42
 
logic being if CM covers...the game will be higher scoring anyway

thanks man.............

my thoughts?......sick of hearing how awesome OU / BAKER M is
  *having watched their TEXAS (no show)/beat up by a BAD team....TULSA (no answer for their O.....Tennessee (stunk most of game....W Virg.....Akron (couldn't run).....QB's out vs TCU/Bay/Okie St....killed both Kansas teams....Iowa St and TT...one of nation's best teams?

Being fascinated by human nature / behavior............
  *it seems like folks just can't ACCEPT that BAD stuff happens....AND....make LITTLE effort to prepare for....or even make minimal effort to AVOID it

To (really) make no effort at all....then whine / b-i-t-c-h about the results....is the way most every single decision is made....when you think about it....job / wife / home ....etc......we just kinda 'fall into' things > hope for the best....can't believe it didn't work !!!!
  *THEN....the (very) few that actually work at (whatever)....are looked upon with suspicion..deemed to just be LUCKY.....
.....or cheating somehow.....................

What do you think about the Pitt/Navy 2H?

can't tell if Pitt will fight some more.....or get steamrolled
  *best bet if you like Pitt to come back.....some at least

Is Pitt in 3rd quarter....ML at +115....+1/2 is -140 or so
  *or UNDER 27 might work

Navy's worst qtr (both O / D)....is 3rd quarter
  *3rd is Pitts best on O....their D usually tightens up 2H....

@Bookie - can you please share why Oregon is one of your strongest plays this bowl season?  TCU looks legit and went through one of the toughest schedules in the country.  Looks like a toss up, no?

We can add the Minnesota head coach to the list of coaches who are not trying to win their bowl games.  Wow - what an awful decision to go for it on 4th-and-2