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77% on Wisky, but that line ain't bugging...

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Posts: 59

drose1

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Posted: Jan. 1, 2011 - 4:08 PM ET #26

Quote Originally Posted by Gilberto:

Everyone knows I don't buy into the line movement conspiracy stuff, but you never know.

I do beleive that what has always been the business model of every sportsbook is that they want 50/50 on each side and make their millions on the VIG.

To me all this is saying is there is still more money on TCU than Wisconsin and they are trying to get to 50/50 on both sides.

Vegas doesn't want to "win or lose" against the gambler they want 50/50 so I just don't beleive they are messing with the line.

Finally nobody knows if it's public money or sharp money....you really don't. There are no records released of "who" played or "how much" someone played. In fact I would be willing to bet that the % that they show of who is on what line is another mind fuck they put out there to heard the sheep towards where they want them to get 50/50.

I'm also on Wisconsin so of course I want you to be wrong

Gilberto, I respect you very much and was admittedly a little worried when I saw you go on Wisky.

But, in all reality, from that early line movement, it was def. sharps making that line move, not the public. So, if there is STILL more money on TCU then I'd rather ride with the "sharps" than the public, simple as that.

TheSource2Win

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Posts: 4453

Posted: Jan. 1, 2011 - 4:09 PM ET #27

Vegas needs Wiscy money to come in... fast. That is why the line is still 3.

Jerry Garcia1

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Posted: Jan. 1, 2011 - 4:10 PM ET #28

Quote Originally Posted by FastasCash:

If the line isn't bugging you then what is bugging you? I don't understand topic

I think he meant "budging"

nbafan88

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Posts: 26899

Posted: Jan. 1, 2011 - 4:13 PM ET #29

Quote Originally Posted by TheSource2Win:

Vegas needs Wiscy money to come in... fast. That is why the line is still 3.

that is bullshit

JayLumen

Prospect

Joined: Dec, 2007

Posts: 394

Posted: Jan. 1, 2011 - 4:13 PM ET #30

Quote Originally Posted by webguy:

your 77% isnt accurate
most of the action at the books out here is on TCU-3

the books need Wisc+3

Ahh, I love threads were guys come in here and throw around percentages. What's even worse is guys believe them eventhough they provide no information as to where they got their numbers.....

If your trying to sale something, have something to back it up with.

ICEman83

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Posts: 12474

Posted: Jan. 1, 2011 - 4:14 PM ET #31

Quote Originally Posted by TheSource2Win:

They should make a movie on this subject in which, in the end, one singular man, let's make him the richest man on the planet, is actually in control of EVERY sporting event and controls the billions of dollars of $$$ wagered.

As for reality, still not buying any of this. Vegas makes money when they have as close to a 50/50 split as possible. Period.

ApocalypseLater

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Posts: 4260

Posted: Jan. 1, 2011 - 4:14 PM ET #32

it's not almost as good as RLM... it is the only RLM that IS any good... public dog but the line goes the other direction... you never bet against that scenario, ever!

ATX_HornsWin

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Posted: Jan. 1, 2011 - 4:14 PM ET #33

KILLER FROGZ!!!!

Jerry Garcia1

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Posted: Jan. 1, 2011 - 4:14 PM ET #34

Quote Originally Posted by JayLumen:

Ahh, I love threads were guys come in here and throw around percentages. What's even worse is guys believe them eventhough they provide no information as to where they got their numbers.....

If your trying to sale something, have something to back it up with.

He provided a link to where he's getting his number in a later post.

drose1

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Posts: 1155

Posted: Jan. 1, 2011 - 4:16 PM ET #35

Take it for want you want.

And I already provided my source for percentages as,

https://www.pregame.com/EN/main/sports-betting-stats/sportsbook-spy-insights/

drose1

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Posts: 1155

Posted: Jan. 1, 2011 - 4:17 PM ET #36

Quote Originally Posted by ApocalypseLater:

it's not almost as good as RLM... it is the only RLM that IS any good... public dog but the line goes the other direction... you never bet against that scenario, ever!

This is "almost as good"...

Bling

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Posts: 41476

Posted: Jan. 1, 2011 - 4:19 PM ET #37

Quote Originally Posted by drose1:

https://www.pregame.com/EN/main/sports-betting-stats/sportsbook-spy-insights/

Sites like that are mostly bullpoppy based on cnn like polls. Books do not release their numbers

drose1

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Posted: Jan. 1, 2011 - 4:20 PM ET #38

That site is legitmate

Gilberto

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Posted: Jan. 1, 2011 - 4:21 PM ET #39

Quote Originally Posted by drose1:

Gilberto, I respect you very much and was admittedly a little worried when I saw you go on Wisky.

But, in all reality, from that early line movement, it was def. sharps making that line move, not the public. So, if there is STILL more money on TCU then I'd rather ride with the "sharps" than the public, simple as that.

Jrose, respect right back at you You very well may be right, just my personality type makes me have to see proof to believe in conspiracies, although we all know the NBA refs have thrown games and fucked the lines up......but then again I needed Donahugh to be convicted and do jail time for me to believe

Good luck on the game it should be a great one either way.....power against speed is always fun to watch.

ApocalypseLater

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Posts: 4260

Posted: Jan. 1, 2011 - 4:21 PM ET #40

Quote Originally Posted by drose1:

This is "almost as good"...

you didn't get what i was saying... it's not almost as good... it's better... reverse-line movement where the favorite is getting 85% but the line drops a shade really doesn't mean squat... playing that over the long haul is about a 50/50 proposition... but RLM where the public is on the dog, and the line goes the other way, is the golden goose...

the reason is, Vegas doesn't really want to see 50/50 in terms of those percentages... they want to see about 60/40 on the favorite... usually, when a dog is getting more than 50%, they will quickly drop the line until it starts to get closer to 60/40... when they don't drop the line, despite getting heavy play on the dog, it means they are taking a stand on the favorite...

drose1

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Posts: 1155

Posted: Jan. 1, 2011 - 4:22 PM ET #41

Gilberto

ApocalypseLater

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Posted: Jan. 1, 2011 - 4:23 PM ET #42

Quote Originally Posted by drose1:

That site is legitmate

sportsinsights is the best site for looking at percentages, imo... on there it is about 70/30 in favor of Wisconsin...

Gilberto

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Posted: Jan. 1, 2011 - 4:23 PM ET #43

Quote Originally Posted by drose1:

Gilberto

Of course meant Drose.....you wouldn't want to be called Jalen Rose or however you spell the old dudes name

drose1

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Joined: Jan, 2010

Posts: 1155

Posted: Jan. 1, 2011 - 4:23 PM ET #44

Quote Originally Posted by ApocalypseLater:

you didn't get what i was saying... it's not almost as good... it's better... reverse-line movement where the favorite is getting 85% but the line drops a shade really doesn't mean squat... playing that over the long haul is about a 50/50 proposition... but RLM where the public is on the dog, and the line goes the other way, is the golden goose...

the reason is, Vegas doesn't really want to see 50/50 in terms of those percentages... they want to see about 60/40 on the favorite... usually, when a dog is getting more than 50%, they will quickly drop the line until it starts to get closer to 60/40... when they don't drop the line, despite getting heavy play on the dog, it means they are taking a stand on the favorite...

Ahh, yes now I understand...

drose1

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Posts: 1155

Posted: Jan. 1, 2011 - 4:24 PM ET #45

Quote Originally Posted by ApocalypseLater:

sportsinsights is the best site for looking at percentages, imo... on there it is about 70/30 in favor of Wisconsin...

Alright, I'll check that out, but from my experience, pregame has been very reliable

drose1

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Posts: 1155

Posted: Jan. 1, 2011 - 4:25 PM ET #46

Quote Originally Posted by Gilberto:

Of course meant Drose.....you wouldn't want to be called Jalen Rose or however you spell the old dudes name

Huge difference lol

Mgutmans02

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Posted: Jan. 1, 2011 - 4:28 PM ET #47

im with you on the horned frogs

drose1

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Posted: Jan. 1, 2011 - 4:30 PM ET #48

BOL guys, lets get it

BigShotBill

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Posts: 1110

Posted: Jan. 1, 2011 - 4:30 PM ET #49

Vegas definitely doesnt want 50/50 action on every game. Sometimes they take a position on a game and hope for money to pour in on one side. I think this is the case here. You have a BCS school who looked unreal on offense in the second half of the season vs a non BCS school who plays nobody. Joe Public thinks this is easy, Wisconsin is getting a FG! Not so fast my friend!

TCU is very underrated and sharps love their stats on off and def in yards per play. Wisconsin wont be able to throw the ball very well and I think TCU could expose their lack of team speed. On Espn Insider they had a sharp say that he has the pure rating on this game at TCU -4.5 pts.