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2018 Offseason Stuff

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Posted: #26
Christmas in May is here, but only one more today:

Week 0/1 plays:
Syracuse -1.5  (2u)
Wyoming +1 (1.5u)
Central Florida -16.5  (0.75u)
Added:  Old Dominion -5.5 (0.75u)
Washington +5.5  (0.5u)
Florida Atlantic +24 hook (0.3u)
Texas -7 hook (0.2u)
Louisville +31.5  hook (0.2u)

RSW Win Totals:
Tennessee Under 6.5 -165  (risk 0.5 to win 0.303)
LSU Over 6.5 -110 (0.5u)

 
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Posted: #27

Week 0/1 plays:

Syracuse -1.5  (2u)

Wyoming +1 (1.5u)

Central Florida -16.5  (0.75u)

Old Dominion -5.5 (0.75u)

Washington +5.5  (0.5u)

Florida Atlantic +24 hook (0.3u)

Texas -7 hook (0.2u)

Louisville +31.5  hook (0.2u)

RSW Win Totals:

Tennessee Under 6.5 -165  (risk 0.5 to win 0.303)

LSU Over 6.5 -110 (0.5u)

Added:  Washington Over 8.5 -195  (risk 0.585 to win 0.3u)

 
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Posted: #28

Should have waited to post, just took Washington RSW over 8.5 again at -200 at another offshore book.

Week 0/1 plays:

Syracuse -1.5  (2u)

Wyoming +1 (1.5u)

Central Florida -16.5  (0.75u)

Old Dominion -5.5 (0.75u)

Washington +5.5  (0.5u)

Florida Atlantic +24 hook (0.3u)

Texas -7 hook (0.2u)

Louisville +31.5  hook (0.2u)

RSW Win Totals:

Tennessee Under 6.5 -165  (risk 0.5 to win 0.303)

LSU Over 6.5 -110 (0.5u)

Washington Over 8.5 -195 & -200  (risk 0.985 to win 0.5u)

 
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Posted: #29
Added a few RSW Totals today. 

Week 0/1 plays:
Syracuse -1.5  (2u)
Wyoming +1 (1.5u)
Central Florida -16.5  (0.75u)
Old Dominion -5.5 (0.75u)
Washington +5.5  (0.5u)
Florida Atlantic +24 hook (0.3u)
Texas -7 hook (0.2u)
Louisville +31.5  hook (0.2u)

RSW Win Totals:
Tennessee Under 6.5 -165  (risk 0.5 to win 0.303)
LSU Over 6.5 -110 (0.5u)
Washington Over 8.5 -195 & -200  (risk 0.985 to win 0.5u)

Added:  New Mexico State Under 6 -135 (to win 0.5u)
Added:  Louisville Under 7.5 -120  (to win 0.5u)  *Betonline - other books at O/U 7.
Added:  Colorado State Over 5.5 -115 (to win 0.5u)
 
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Posted: #30
Love the Cuse and wyoming week 1 plays ...
Old Dominion is going to rebound nicely this season ...


Best of luck Brother ..thanks for all your work 
BEST OF HEALTH, HAPPINESS,WEALTH, BLESSINGS and LUCK TO ALL !!
 
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Posted: #31
Quote Originally Posted by TD21:

Slightly less on UCF with a new staff, but still the value is there on all three.

Also, smaller on RSW totals:

LSU over 6.5

Tennessee Under 6.5

Waiting on one Big Ten RSW total in particular to be offered.  Will be a larger play than the other two.


The suspense is killing me. I am guessing you were looking for Nebraska at Over 5 to 5.5?
 
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Posted: #32
Quote Originally Posted by TD21:

Slightly less on UCF with a new staff, but still the value is there on all three.

Also, smaller on RSW totals:

LSU over 6.5

Tennessee Under 6.5

Waiting on one Big Ten RSW total in particular to be offered.  Will be a larger play than the other two.


The suspense is killing me. I am guessing you were looking for Nebraska at Over 5 to 5.5?
 
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Posted: #33
Quote Originally Posted by UNIMAN:


The suspense is killing me. I am guessing you were looking for Nebraska at Over 5 to 5.5?

Killing me too....just not the suspense.

That post was based on the opening Big Ten & SEC lines.

https://herosports.com/college-football/win-totals-2018-alabama-auburn-georgia-ohio-state-wisconsin-penn-state-aiai

I don't see Northwestern winning 8 games with that schedule.  And Thorson may not be 100% by week 1.  Under 7.5 was the play!

But, the two offshore books I use never did offer this one.  And Chris Andrews (South Point) was smart enough to make the correction to O/U 6.  Now offshore has copied South Point's number and it's where it belongs.

Best of luck this year UNIMAN!




 
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Posted: #34
Yeah, without Thorson a big drop. Very tough schedule.

I was wondering what they would have Nebraska at with Frost at the helm, thinking he could get that team to six wins. Sure enough it's six.

Hopefully I have better luck with my wagers than I do with my posts!
How can you get two posts in the same second?
Another thread I have three in three seconds!


 
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Posted: #35
Quote Originally Posted by TD21:


Killing me too....just not the suspense.

That post was based on the opening Big Ten & SEC lines.

https://herosports.com/college-football/win-totals-2018-alabama-auburn-georgia-ohio-state-wisconsin-penn-state-aiai

I don't see Northwestern winning 8 games with that schedule.  And Thorson may not be 100% by week 1.  Under 7.5 was the play!

But, the two offshore books I use never did offer this one.  And Chris Andrews (South Point) was smart enough to make the correction to O/U 6.  Now offshore has copied South Point's number and it's where it belongs.

Best of luck this year UNIMAN!





Under 7.5 would have a been a big bet for me ...

One of my schedule Breakdowns has them 4-8 ... Purdue seems like a good be week 1 ...  

6-6 sounds right , maybe 1 win in either direction 

BEST OF HEALTH, HAPPINESS,WEALTH, BLESSINGS and LUCK TO ALL !!
 
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Posted: #36
As mentioned over in UNIMAN's thread about Clemson QB Hunter Johnson transferring to Northwestern...... 

The list below is a ranking of standard deviation #s for each team's ATS margin using the full season cumulative PR #s and associated point spread  (*remember a team's PR# fluctuates some up or down throughout a season.  I have forced myself to arrive at one number for a full season's worth of data that best represents one value for that team's full season performance).  

Also, I have excluded bowl games in my standard deviation ATS margin review.

1.  Eastern Michigan 6.7
2.  Buffalo 7.2
3.  Northern Illinois  7.3
4.  Michigan  7.7
5.  North Carolina State  7.8
6.  New Mexico State  8.0
7.  Central Florida  8.1
7.  West Virginia  8.1
9.  Akron  8.2
10.  SMU   8.3
10.  Arkansas 8.3
12.  UTSA  8.8
12.  Louisiana Tech  8.8
14.  Wisconsin  9.0
14.  BYU  9.0
16.  Western Michigan  9.1
17.  Rice  9.2
18.  Colorado  9.3
19.  Western Kentucky  9.4
19.  Florida  9.4
21.  Clemson  9.5
21.  Kent State  9.5
23.  UTEP  9.9
23.  North Texas  9.9
25.  Illinois  10.0
25.  Louisiana Monroe  10.0
25.  TCU  10.0
28.  Iowa State  10.1
28.  Texas A&M  10.1
30.  South Florida  10.5
31.  Indiana  10.7
31.  Arizona  10.7
33.  Florida State  10.8
33.  Connecticut  10.8
35.  Cincinnati  10.9
36.  Georgia State  11.1
37.  Georgia  11.2
37.  Army  11.2
37.  Miami (Ohio)  11.2
40.  Tennessee  11.3
40.  USC  11.3
42.  LSU  11.4
43.  Tulane  11.5
43.  UCLA  11.5
45.  Nevada  11.6
45.  Temple  11.6
47.  Navy  11.7
47.  Old Dominion  11.7
49.  Hawaii  11.8
49.  Mississippi  11.8
51.  Pittsburgh  11.9
51.  Michigan State  11.9
51.  Kansas State  11.9
54.  San Diego State  12.0
54.  Oklahoma State  12.0
54.  Bowling Green  12.0
57.  Boise State  12.1
57.  Appalachian State  12.1
57.  Oklahoma  12.1
60.  Toledo  12.3
61.  Arkansas State  12.4
62.  Virginia Tech  12.5
63.  Wake Forest  12.6
64.  Houston  12.7
64.  Kansas  12.7
66.  Florida Atlantic  12.8
66.  Georgia Tech  12.8
66.  Washington  12.8
69.  Kentucky  12.9
69.  Charlotte  12.9
69.  Colorado State  12.9
72.  New Mexico  13.0
72.  South Carolina  13.0
74.  Texas Tech  13.1
74.  Air Force  13.1
76.  Northwestern  13.2
76.  Ohio U.  13.2
78.  California  13.3
79.  Marshall  13.4
79.  Utah  13.4
81.  Purdue  13.5
81.  Massachusetts  13.5
83.  Texas  13.7
83.  Florida International  13.7
83.  Baylor  13.7
86.  Louisville  13.8
87.  Memphis  13.9
88.  Central Michigan  14.0
88.  Penn State  14.0
90.  Arizona State  14.2
90.  Southern Miss  14.2
92.  Wyoming  14.3
92.  Duke  14.3
92.  Virginia  14.3
92.  Texas State  14.3
92.  Louisiana Lafayette  14.3
97.  Fresno State  14.4
98.  Alabama  14.7
99.  Troy  14.8
100.  Minnesota  14.9
100.  Oregon State  14.9
102.  Rutgers  15.0
102.  East Carolina  15.0
104.  Middle Tennessee State  15.3
105.  Idaho  15.4
105.  UAB  15.4
105.  San Jose State  15.4
108.  Miami  15.6
109.  Stanford  15.7
110.  Utah State  15.8
111.  North Carolina  15.9
112.  Nebraska  16.0
113.  Vanderbilt  16.1
114.  Mississippi State  16.5
114.  Coastal Carolina  16.5
116.  Ball State  16.6
117.  Auburn  16.7
117.  Washington State  16.7
119.  Notre Dame  16.8
119.  Georgia Southern  16.8
121.  Iowa  16.9
122.  Syracuse  17.1
122.  Tulsa  17.1
122.  Maryland  17.1
125.  UNLV  17.3
126.  Boston College  17.5
127.  Ohio State  18.0
128.  Missouri  19.3
129.  South Alabama  19.5
130.  Oregon  23.5



 
Captain
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Posted: #37
Similar to post #12, here are the #s for Northwestern in 2017 as another example of a pretty basic ATS margin review.

Northwestern:

Power Rating = 80.6

Schedule:
Home Field Advantage:  2.8 pts

Nevada  (PR = 58.8)  Calculated Line for selected team: -24.7  Score:  31-20.  ATS margin:  -13.7

at Duke  (PR = 73.7)  Line:  -4.2    Score:  17-41.  ATS Margin:  -28.2

Bowling Green (PR = 52.7)  Line:  -30.8  Score:  49-7.  ATS Margin:  11.2

at Wisconsin  (PR = 91.2)  Line:  +13.4  Score:  24-33.  ATS Margin:  +4.4

Penn State  (PR = 95.1)  Line:  +11.6  Score:  7-31.  ATS Margin:  -12.4

at Maryland  (PR = 64.1)  Line:  -13.7  Score:  37-21.  ATS Margin:  +2.3

Iowa  (PR = 80.4)  Line:  -3.0  Score:  17-10.  ATS Margin:  +4.0

Michigan State  (PR = 79.2)  Line:  -4.3  Score:  39-31.  ATS Margin:  +3.8

at Nebraska  (PR = 69.5)  Line:  -8.4  Score:  31-24.  ATS Margin:  -1.4

Purdue  (PR = 76.3)  Line:  -7.1  Score:  23-13.  ATS Margin:  +2.9

Minnesota  (PR = 67.4)  Line:  -16.1  Score:  39-0.  ATS Margin:  +22.9

at Illinois  (PR = 58.7)  Line:  -19.2  Score:  42-7.  ATS Margin:  +15.8

vs. Kentucky  (PR = 68.0)  Line:  -12.7  Score:  24-23.  ATS Margin:  -11.7

Full Season ATS Margin sum:  0.0  (right on target)
Full Season ATS record with these #s:  8-5  (*Note, to lower Northwestern's  ATS record to closer to 0.500, they would need to be valued even higher than their 80.6 Power Rating -- for a variety of reasons, I elected not to do this.)

This example is one of a few teams that you cannot get Net Zero for ATS margin and at the same time get a 0.500 ATS record.  The #s just don't work out that way.  This is actually what lead me to do the standard deviation review for consistent vs. volatile performance outcomes.

For 2017 Northwestern, if I raise their PR#, then the full season ATS Margin sum will go farther away from the target net zero.  Such is life when your sample size is only 12-13 games.  Maybe I should start betting on baseball.

 
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Posted: #38
Further breakdown of the Northwestern example:

Northwestern:

ATS Margin average (Home games only):  +2.7  (ATS record:  5-2)

ATS Margin average (Away games only):  -1.4  (ATS record:  3-2)

ATS Margin average (Neutral Site games only):  -11.7  (ATS record:  0-1)

Last 7 regular season games ATS Margin average:  +7.2  (ATS record:  6-1)  *Inflated some by Minnesota and Illinois games to end the season.  Only +2.3 in the other 5 games.

First 5 regular season games ATS Margin average:  -7.7  (ATS record:  2-3)

Non-Conference games ATS margin average:  -10.6  (ATS record:  1-3)

Conference games ATS Margin average:  +4.7  (ATS record:  7-2)

vs. #5 - #8 rated teams ATS Margin average:  -4.0  (ATS record:  1-1)

vs.  #24 - #38 rated teams ATS Margin average:  +3.5  (ATS record:  3-0)

vs.  #52 - #88 rated teams ATS Margin average:  -3.2  (ATS record:  2-3).  *Increases to -1.4 if using Median.

vs. #113 - #143  rated teams ATS Margin average:  +4.5  (ATS record: 2-1)

*team ratings include both FBS & FCS teams.

Also, Northwestern had the lowest ranked Strength of Schedule for any Big Ten team in 2017 (#62 overall in FBS by my PR #s).  That will drastically change in 2018 -- using a combination of the 2018 FPI strength of schedule and other inputs, I have Northwestern having the #8 toughest schedule in the nation (54 spots higher!).  Steele has NU as having the #13 toughest schedule and 38 spots different than 2017.  Either set of #s suggest this season will be a much tougher schedule.

Ultimately that does somewhat affect a teams PR #, especially if they perform a certain way vs. different tiers of opponents.
 
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Posted: #39
Very enlightening to say the least. TD, you should be a bookmaker!

 
 
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Posted: #40
Quote Originally Posted by UNIMAN:

Very enlightening to say the least. TD, you should be a bookmaker!

 

Ha!  ....  well I have such low opening limits anymore for a couple offshore sites that I'm relatively "cheap labor" to help out those books get their opening # a little closer to where it belongs.

Anyway, I enjoy it either way.  I'm a numbers guy and also a coach's son, what can I say.

I look forward to seeing your around this year UNIMAN!  

 
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Posted: #41
Thank you and same here! Your analysis of college football is tops!!




 
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Posted: #42
TD , Thanks for all of your contributions to this forum.

Blessings and Good Luck to you this season.

   
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
 
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Posted: #43
Added one RSW Total:  

Week 0/1 plays:
Syracuse -1.5  (2u)
Wyoming +1 (1.5u)
Central Florida -16.5  (0.75u)
Old Dominion -5.5 (0.75u)
Washington +5.5  (0.5u)
Florida Atlantic +24 hook (0.3u)
Texas -7 hook (0.2u)
Louisville +31.5  hook (0.2u)

RSW Win Totals:
Tennessee Under 6.5 -165  (risk 0.5 to win 0.303)
LSU Over 6.5 -110 (0.5u)
Washington Over 8.5 -195 & -200  (risk 0.985 to win 0.5u)
New Mexico State Under 6 -135 (to win 0.5u)
Louisville Under 7.5 -120  (to win 0.5u) 
Colorado State Over 5.5 -115 (to win 0.5u)
Added:  Ole Miss Under 6.5  -120 (1u)
 
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Posted: #44
I've bet on the Heisman margin of victory and won a decent amount when it was L. Jackson vs. D. Watson in 2016, but I don't know if I've ever taken a Heisman prop in the preseason..... for whatever reason possessed me, I took three QBs this year for very small amounts.

Trace McSorley +2000 & +2500
Kyler Murray +2700
Nick Fitzgerald +3300


 
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Posted: #45
Appreciate Duck pointing this one out from Betonline:  

Week 0/1 plays:
Syracuse -1.5  (2u)
Wyoming +1 (1.5u)
Central Florida -16.5  (0.75u)
Old Dominion -5.5 (0.75u)
Washington +5.5  (0.5u)
Florida Atlantic +24 hook (0.3u)
Texas -7 hook (0.2u)
Louisville +31.5  hook (0.2u)

RSW Win Totals:
Tennessee Under 6.5 -165  (risk 0.5 to win 0.303)
LSU Over 6.5 -110 (0.5u)
Washington Over 8.5 -195 & -200  (risk 0.985 to win 0.5u)
New Mexico State Under 6 -135 (to win 0.5u)
Louisville Under 7.5 -120  (to win 0.5u) 
Colorado State Over 5.5 -115 (to win 0.5u)
Ole Miss Under 6.5  -120 (1u)
Added:  Tulane Over 4.5 -110 (0.5u)
 
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Posted: #46
Preliminary 2018 Big Ten week 1 PR#s:

Ohio State  95.9
Wisconsin  90.4
Michigan  90.0
Michigan State  88.2
Penn State  87.6
Iowa  79.7
Nebraska  75.5
Northwestern  75.1
Purdue  73.3
Maryland  73.1
Indiana  71.9
Minnesota  70.9
Illinois  66.9
Rutgers  65.8

Some more confident / feeling real solid than others -- I'll see how fall camp shakes out and adjust some if needed for new injuries, suspensions, recovery time coming back from 2017 injuries, etc..
 
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Posted: #47
Quote Originally Posted by TD21:

Preliminary 2018 Big Ten week 1 PR#s:

Ohio State  95.9
Wisconsin  90.4
Michigan  90.0
Michigan State  88.2
Penn State  87.6
Iowa  79.7
Nebraska  75.5
Northwestern  75.1
Purdue  73.3
Maryland  73.1
Indiana  71.9
Minnesota  70.9
Illinois  66.9
Rutgers  65.8

Some more confident / feeling real solid than others -- I'll see how fall camp shakes out and adjust some if needed for new injuries, suspensions, recovery time coming back from 2017 injuries, etc..

Looks pretty darn good TD. I've been scrutinizing the Big10 schedule for awhile now. Ohio State has it the easiest by far. The Penn St game should be the toughest as the Lions get an extra day off leading up to the game and it's at home. After that looks pretty easy for the Bucs up their bye week 9, then Neb, at MSU, at Maryland, home with Mich.
Michigan, MSU, and Penn St have it the worst. Wisconsin has four solid away games but none back to back.

Bill Connelly should be getting to the top Big10 teams this week on SBNation! 
 
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Posted: #48

Quote Originally Posted by TD21:

Appreciate Duck pointing this one out from Betonline:   Week 0/1 plays: Syracuse -1.5  (2u) Wyoming +1 (1.5u) Central Florida -16.5  (0.75u) Old Dominion -5.5 (0.75u) Washington +5.5  (0.5u) Florida Atlantic +24 hook (0.3u) Texas -7 hook (0.2u) Louisville +31.5  hook (0.2u) RSW Win Totals:Tennessee Under 6.5 -165  (risk 0.5 to win 0.303) LSU Over 6.5 -110 (0.5u) Washington Over 8.5 -195 & -200  (risk 0.985 to win 0.5u)New Mexico State Under 6 -135 (to win 0.5u)Louisville Under 7.5 -120  (to win 0.5u) Colorado State Over 5.5 -115 (to win 0.5u)Ole Miss Under 6.5  -120 (1u)Added:  Tulane Over 4.5 -110 (0.5u)

 

 

Nice job on those early week 1 lines - looks like you were on the right side of all of them.

 
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Posted: #49
Early Week 1 FBS vs. FCS starting to come out....

Week 0/1 plays:
Syracuse -1.5  (2u)
Wyoming +1 (1.5u)
Central Florida -16.5  (0.75u)
Old Dominion -5.5 (0.75u)
Washington +5.5  (0.5u)
Florida Atlantic +24 hook (0.3u)
Texas -7 hook (0.2u)
Louisville +31.5  hook (0.2u)
Added:  Ball State -9.5
Added:  Villanova +18.5

RSW Win Totals:
Tennessee Under 6.5 -165  (risk 0.5 to win 0.303)
LSU Over 6.5 -110 (0.5u)
Washington Over 8.5 -195 & -200  (risk 0.985 to win 0.5u)
New Mexico State Under 6 -135 (to win 0.5u)
Louisville Under 7.5 -120  (to win 0.5u) 
Colorado State Over 5.5 -115 (to win 0.5u)
Ole Miss Under 6.5  -120 (1u)
Tulane Over 4.5 -110 (0.5u)
 
 
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Posted: #50

Quote Originally Posted by TD21:

Early Week 1 FBS vs. FCS starting to come out.... Week 0/1 plays: Syracuse -1.5  (2u) Wyoming +1 (1.5u) Central Florida -16.5  (0.75u) Old Dominion -5.5 (0.75u) Washington +5.5  (0.5u) Florida Atlantic +24 hook (0.3u) Texas -7 hook (0.2u) Louisville +31.5  hook (0.2u)Added:  Ball State -9.5Added:  Villanova +18.5 RSW Win Totals:Tennessee Under 6.5 -165  (risk 0.5 to win 0.303) LSU Over 6.5 -110 (0.5u) Washington Over 8.5 -195 & -200  (risk 0.985 to win 0.5u)New Mexico State Under 6 -135 (to win 0.5u)Louisville Under 7.5 -120  (to win 0.5u) Colorado State Over 5.5 -115 (to win 0.5u)Ole Miss Under 6.5  -120 (1u)Tulane Over 4.5 -110 (0.5u)

 

Where are you finding the FCS lines TD?

THNX

 

 

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