Great to see one of the goats back for another year. Hope all is well buddy and a profitable football season. I know your pressed for time but regarding Thursdays plays if you can get Uconn +24 would you still take it for 1u?? Thanks my friends bol again
ProPickers, Since I already had 0.75u on the opening UCF number, I wanted slightly more on the UConn play so that if I do not successfully middle, then essentially I have a small play on UConn. I think we'll look back at the end of the season with a full set of scores and data and determine that there was value in week 1 on UConn at +24.... I wouldn't necessarily go for 1u, but UConn at +24 is a play to me if you can still get 24.
Quote Originally Posted by ProPickers:
Great to see one of the goats back for another year. Hope all is well buddy and a profitable football season. I know your pressed for time but regarding Thursdays plays if you can get Uconn +24 would you still take it for 1u?? Thanks my friends bol again
ProPickers, Since I already had 0.75u on the opening UCF number, I wanted slightly more on the UConn play so that if I do not successfully middle, then essentially I have a small play on UConn. I think we'll look back at the end of the season with a full set of scores and data and determine that there was value in week 1 on UConn at +24.... I wouldn't necessarily go for 1u, but UConn at +24 is a play to me if you can still get 24.
Great to see one of the goats back for another year. Hope all is well buddy and a profitable football season. I know your pressed for time but regarding Thursdays plays if you can get Uconn +24 would you still take it for 1u?? Thanks my friends bol again
ProPickers, Since I already had 0.75u on the opening UCF number, I wanted slightly more on the UConn play so that if I do not successfully middle, then essentially I have a small play on UConn. I think we'll look back at the end of the season with a full set of scores and data and determine that there was value in week 1 on UConn at +24.... I wouldn't necessarily go for 1u, but UConn at +24 is a play to me if you can still get 24.
I read through most of this thread and find it pretty insightful. I think I'm correct in saying that according to your power ratings I saw, and if you use them for spread purposes, you see the "correct" spread on the UCF v UCONN spread being around 19. Which obviously explains why you are trying to middle with UCF which I think you got at -16 and UCONN at +24.
What I'm curious about is how you can give UCONN that high of a power rating (I think it was 58) when by all accounts, UCONN could be WORSE than last year and one of the worst, college football teams for 2018. For the life of me I can't see UCF winning this by less than 30. Sure, last year UCF only won by 25 when the spread was I think 39. And I'm not quite sure how the line was initially -16...I'm guessing maybe because of coaching staff uncertainty at the time you made your bet.
I've already bet UCF at -23 1/2, but would be interested to hear more about why you think UCONN +24 is a good play. Thanks.
Quote Originally Posted by TD21:
Quote Originally Posted by ProPickers:
Great to see one of the goats back for another year. Hope all is well buddy and a profitable football season. I know your pressed for time but regarding Thursdays plays if you can get Uconn +24 would you still take it for 1u?? Thanks my friends bol again
ProPickers, Since I already had 0.75u on the opening UCF number, I wanted slightly more on the UConn play so that if I do not successfully middle, then essentially I have a small play on UConn. I think we'll look back at the end of the season with a full set of scores and data and determine that there was value in week 1 on UConn at +24.... I wouldn't necessarily go for 1u, but UConn at +24 is a play to me if you can still get 24.
I read through most of this thread and find it pretty insightful. I think I'm correct in saying that according to your power ratings I saw, and if you use them for spread purposes, you see the "correct" spread on the UCF v UCONN spread being around 19. Which obviously explains why you are trying to middle with UCF which I think you got at -16 and UCONN at +24.
What I'm curious about is how you can give UCONN that high of a power rating (I think it was 58) when by all accounts, UCONN could be WORSE than last year and one of the worst, college football teams for 2018. For the life of me I can't see UCF winning this by less than 30. Sure, last year UCF only won by 25 when the spread was I think 39. And I'm not quite sure how the line was initially -16...I'm guessing maybe because of coaching staff uncertainty at the time you made your bet.
I've already bet UCF at -23 1/2, but would be interested to hear more about why you think UCONN +24 is a good play. Thanks.
ProPickers, Since I already had 0.75u on the opening UCF number, I wanted slightly more on the UConn play so that if I do not successfully middle, then essentially I have a small play on UConn. I think we'll look back at the end of the season with a full set of scores and data and determine that there was value in week 1 on UConn at +24.... I wouldn't necessarily go for 1u, but UConn at +24 is a play to me if you can still get 24.
I read through most of this thread and find it pretty insightful. I think I'm correct in saying that according to your power ratings I saw, and if you use them for spread purposes, you see the "correct" spread on the UCF v UCONN spread being around 19. Which obviously explains why you are trying to middle with UCF which I think you got at -16 and UCONN at +24.
What I'm curious about is how you can give UCONN that high of a power rating (I think it was 58) when by all accounts, UCONN could be WORSE than last year and one of the worst, college football teams for 2018. For the life of me I can't see UCF winning this by less than 30. Sure, last year UCF only won by 25 when the spread was I think 39. And I'm not quite sure how the line was initially -16...I'm guessing maybe because of coaching staff uncertainty at the time you made your bet.
I've already bet UCF at -23 1/2, but would be interested to hear more about why you think UCONN +24 is a good play. Thanks.
UConn graded out at 54.4 after 2017, but they were +2.2 points better for ATS margin over their last 7 games under a first year head coach. So, I gave them partial credit for this in the offseason before my regular offense / defense reviews and adjustments. Another 3 points better for offense/defense is what I had there for adjustments going into 2018. Somewhat benefit of the doubt for a defense with a lot of new starters. Very fair comment there. And I should point out that the line you reference would be for a neutral field. I am probably too optimistic for UConn for game #1, but I think as the year goes on they'll grade out near this figure. Best of luck tonight and enjoy the games! Great to have college football back.
Quote Originally Posted by the_dude911:
ProPickers, Since I already had 0.75u on the opening UCF number, I wanted slightly more on the UConn play so that if I do not successfully middle, then essentially I have a small play on UConn. I think we'll look back at the end of the season with a full set of scores and data and determine that there was value in week 1 on UConn at +24.... I wouldn't necessarily go for 1u, but UConn at +24 is a play to me if you can still get 24.
I read through most of this thread and find it pretty insightful. I think I'm correct in saying that according to your power ratings I saw, and if you use them for spread purposes, you see the "correct" spread on the UCF v UCONN spread being around 19. Which obviously explains why you are trying to middle with UCF which I think you got at -16 and UCONN at +24.
What I'm curious about is how you can give UCONN that high of a power rating (I think it was 58) when by all accounts, UCONN could be WORSE than last year and one of the worst, college football teams for 2018. For the life of me I can't see UCF winning this by less than 30. Sure, last year UCF only won by 25 when the spread was I think 39. And I'm not quite sure how the line was initially -16...I'm guessing maybe because of coaching staff uncertainty at the time you made your bet.
I've already bet UCF at -23 1/2, but would be interested to hear more about why you think UCONN +24 is a good play. Thanks.
UConn graded out at 54.4 after 2017, but they were +2.2 points better for ATS margin over their last 7 games under a first year head coach. So, I gave them partial credit for this in the offseason before my regular offense / defense reviews and adjustments. Another 3 points better for offense/defense is what I had there for adjustments going into 2018. Somewhat benefit of the doubt for a defense with a lot of new starters. Very fair comment there. And I should point out that the line you reference would be for a neutral field. I am probably too optimistic for UConn for game #1, but I think as the year goes on they'll grade out near this figure. Best of luck tonight and enjoy the games! Great to have college football back.
Added: Oklahoma team total Under 46 (0.6u)
Washington +5.5 (0.5u)
Weber State +28 (0.5u) LOSS
Colorado -7 -140 (1u) *now reduded to 0.5u overall as I added CSU+7.5 -107 (0.5u) this morning. Pretty ugly behavior - should have waited to the end of the CSU/Hawaii game before locking in the original play.
Troy +10.5 (0.3u)
Troy / Boise State Under 50 (0.3u) Added: Arizona team total Under 36 (0.3u)
Northwestern State +49.5 hook (0.25) LOSS
Texas -7 hook (0.2u)
Louisville +31.5 hook (0.2u)
Villanova +18.5
Iowa State -12
South Dakota State / Iowa State Under 56.5
Florida -33
Stony Brook / Air Force Under 60 & Under 59.5
James Madison +14.5 hook & again +14.5 (no hook this time)
Richmond / Virginia Under 56.5
Southeast Missouri State / Arkansas State Over 55
East Carolina -6.5 (hook)
College Extra Week 1:
North Carolina A&T / Jacksonville State Under 45.5 (0.2u) WIN
Eastern Kentucky -23.5 (0.4u) WIN
New Hampshire / Maine Under 45 (0.2u) WIN
New Hampshire -3 (0.2u) LOSS
The Citadel +15 & +14.5
McNeese State PK
Late adds yesterday were NFG.... won the larger Ball State bet at least. Go 'Cuse tonight!
Added: Oklahoma team total Under 46 (0.6u)
Washington +5.5 (0.5u)
Weber State +28 (0.5u) LOSS
Colorado -7 -140 (1u) *now reduded to 0.5u overall as I added CSU+7.5 -107 (0.5u) this morning. Pretty ugly behavior - should have waited to the end of the CSU/Hawaii game before locking in the original play.
Troy +10.5 (0.3u)
Troy / Boise State Under 50 (0.3u) Added: Arizona team total Under 36 (0.3u)
Northwestern State +49.5 hook (0.25) LOSS
Texas -7 hook (0.2u)
Louisville +31.5 hook (0.2u)
Villanova +18.5
Iowa State -12
South Dakota State / Iowa State Under 56.5
Florida -33
Stony Brook / Air Force Under 60 & Under 59.5
James Madison +14.5 hook & again +14.5 (no hook this time)
Richmond / Virginia Under 56.5
Southeast Missouri State / Arkansas State Over 55
East Carolina -6.5 (hook)
College Extra Week 1:
North Carolina A&T / Jacksonville State Under 45.5 (0.2u) WIN
Added: Villanova ML +575 (risking 0.15u to win 0.8625u)
The 1st UDML play of the year hits. ....this game was not as close as the score indicates. The Villanova kicking game let Temple back in the game. Instead of a 16-3 Villanova lead on a field goal, it was blocked and returned for a touchdown to cut the lead to 13-10. They made me sweat, but it was a great win in the end.
Added: Villanova ML +575 (risking 0.15u to win 0.8625u)
The 1st UDML play of the year hits. ....this game was not as close as the score indicates. The Villanova kicking game let Temple back in the game. Instead of a 16-3 Villanova lead on a field goal, it was blocked and returned for a touchdown to cut the lead to 13-10. They made me sweat, but it was a great win in the end.
A few wagers cancelled yesterday due to weather. I took ECU again late yesterday at -6.5 hook (0.4u) when it re-opened. No changes to the original card though.
Anyone else have trouble posting last night ("bad gateway connection") at about halftime of the Michigan / Notre Dame game? When I finally got back in, it looked like no posts from anyone for about a half hour.
My only 2nd half play of the day hit, but unfortunately couldn't get in when I tried to post: Michigan / Notre Dame 2nd half Under 25 -114 (0.25u).
Overall it was a pretty good week 1. Up not quite 9 units thus far. Switching my focus now to Week 2. And will circle back later after the FSU / Virginia Tech game for a final week 0/1 tally in this thread.
Over 7800 characters!?.... really, I don't think so. I'll split >1u plays and <1u plays into two posts.
Louisiana Monroe -11 (0.2u) & -13.5 hook (1u) -- (1.2u overall) LOSS
Florida State -6 (1u)
Washington / Auburn Under 51 (1u) WIN
A few wagers cancelled yesterday due to weather. I took ECU again late yesterday at -6.5 hook (0.4u) when it re-opened. No changes to the original card though.
Anyone else have trouble posting last night ("bad gateway connection") at about halftime of the Michigan / Notre Dame game? When I finally got back in, it looked like no posts from anyone for about a half hour.
My only 2nd half play of the day hit, but unfortunately couldn't get in when I tried to post: Michigan / Notre Dame 2nd half Under 25 -114 (0.25u).
Overall it was a pretty good week 1. Up not quite 9 units thus far. Switching my focus now to Week 2. And will circle back later after the FSU / Virginia Tech game for a final week 0/1 tally in this thread.
Over 7800 characters!?.... really, I don't think so. I'll split >1u plays and <1u plays into two posts.
Stony Brook / Air Force Under 60 & Under 59.5 (0.4u) WIN
James Madison +14.5 (0.4u overall) WIN
East Carolina -6.5 (hook) (0.4u)
Troy +10.5 (0.3u) LOSS
Troy / Boise State Under 50 (0.3u) LOSS Arizona team total Under 36 (0.3u) WIN *I probably should have been more outspoken that I thought Sumlin / Mazzone would screw up how they use QB K. Tate. Sorry guys.
Northwestern State +49.5 hook (0.25) LOSS
Austin Peay +31.5 (1st half) (0.25u) LOSS
Texas -7 hook (0.2u) LOSS Louisville +31.5 hook (0.2u) LOSS
Iowa State -12 (0.2u) CANCELLED
South Dakota State / Iowa State Under 56.5 (0.2u) CANCELLED
Florida -33 (0.2u) WIN
Richmond / Virginia Under 56.5 (0.2u) WIN
Southeast Missouri State / Arkansas State Over 55 (0.2u) WIN
Villanova ML +575 (risking 0.15u to win 0.8625u) WIN
Houston team total Over 41 (0.1u) WIN
Charlotte -13.5 (0.1u) WIN
College Extra Week 1:
The Citadel +15 & +14.5 (0.4u overall) WIN
North Carolina A&T / Jacksonville State Under 45.5 (0.2u) WIN
Eastern Kentucky -23.5 (0.4u) WIN
New Hampshire / Maine Under 45 (0.2u) WIN
New Hampshire -3 (0.2u) LOSS
McNeese State PK (0.2u) WIN
Week 0/1 plays (continued):
Central Florida -16.5 (0.75u) WIN & Connecticut +24 -105 (1u) LOSS Old Dominion -5.5 (0.75u) LOSS
Stony Brook / Air Force Under 60 & Under 59.5 (0.4u) WIN
James Madison +14.5 (0.4u overall) WIN
East Carolina -6.5 (hook) (0.4u)
Troy +10.5 (0.3u) LOSS
Troy / Boise State Under 50 (0.3u) LOSS Arizona team total Under 36 (0.3u) WIN *I probably should have been more outspoken that I thought Sumlin / Mazzone would screw up how they use QB K. Tate. Sorry guys.
Northwestern State +49.5 hook (0.25) LOSS
Austin Peay +31.5 (1st half) (0.25u) LOSS
Texas -7 hook (0.2u) LOSS Louisville +31.5 hook (0.2u) LOSS
Iowa State -12 (0.2u) CANCELLED
South Dakota State / Iowa State Under 56.5 (0.2u) CANCELLED
Florida -33 (0.2u) WIN
Richmond / Virginia Under 56.5 (0.2u) WIN
Southeast Missouri State / Arkansas State Over 55 (0.2u) WIN
Villanova ML +575 (risking 0.15u to win 0.8625u) WIN
Houston team total Over 41 (0.1u) WIN
Charlotte -13.5 (0.1u) WIN
College Extra Week 1:
The Citadel +15 & +14.5 (0.4u overall) WIN
North Carolina A&T / Jacksonville State Under 45.5 (0.2u) WIN
Stony Brook / Air Force Under 60 & Under 59.5 (0.4u) WIN
James Madison +14.5 (0.4u overall) WIN
East Carolina -6.5 (hook) (0.4u)
Troy +10.5 (0.3u) LOSS
Troy / Boise State Under 50 (0.3u) LOSS Arizona team total Under 36 (0.3u) WIN *I probably should have been more outspoken that I thought Sumlin / Mazzone would screw up how they use QB K. Tate. Sorry guys.
Northwestern State +49.5 hook (0.25) LOSS
Austin Peay +31.5 (1st half) (0.25u) LOSS
Texas -7 hook (0.2u) LOSS Louisville +31.5 hook (0.2u) LOSS
Iowa State -12 (0.2u) CANCELLED
South Dakota State / Iowa State Under 56.5 (0.2u) CANCELLED
Florida -33 (0.2u) WIN
Richmond / Virginia Under 56.5 (0.2u) WIN
Southeast Missouri State / Arkansas State Over 55 (0.2u) WIN
Villanova ML +575 (risking 0.15u to win 0.8625u) WIN
Houston team total Over 41 (0.1u) WIN
Charlotte -13.5 (0.1u) WIN
College Extra Week 1:
The Citadel +15 & +14.5 (0.4u overall) WIN
North Carolina A&T / Jacksonville State Under 45.5 (0.2u) WIN
Eastern Kentucky -23.5 (0.4u) WIN
New Hampshire / Maine Under 45 (0.2u) WIN
New Hampshire -3 (0.2u) LOSS
McNeese State PK (0.2u) WIN
Oops, missed the A.P. win. Love it when I win with a team that scores zero points -- it's happened a few times over the years.
Quote Originally Posted by TD21:
Week 0/1 plays (continued):
Central Florida -16.5 (0.75u) WIN & Connecticut +24 -105 (1u) LOSS Old Dominion -5.5 (0.75u) LOSS
Stony Brook / Air Force Under 60 & Under 59.5 (0.4u) WIN
James Madison +14.5 (0.4u overall) WIN
East Carolina -6.5 (hook) (0.4u)
Troy +10.5 (0.3u) LOSS
Troy / Boise State Under 50 (0.3u) LOSS Arizona team total Under 36 (0.3u) WIN *I probably should have been more outspoken that I thought Sumlin / Mazzone would screw up how they use QB K. Tate. Sorry guys.
Northwestern State +49.5 hook (0.25) LOSS
Austin Peay +31.5 (1st half) (0.25u) LOSS
Texas -7 hook (0.2u) LOSS Louisville +31.5 hook (0.2u) LOSS
Iowa State -12 (0.2u) CANCELLED
South Dakota State / Iowa State Under 56.5 (0.2u) CANCELLED
Florida -33 (0.2u) WIN
Richmond / Virginia Under 56.5 (0.2u) WIN
Southeast Missouri State / Arkansas State Over 55 (0.2u) WIN
Villanova ML +575 (risking 0.15u to win 0.8625u) WIN
Houston team total Over 41 (0.1u) WIN
Charlotte -13.5 (0.1u) WIN
College Extra Week 1:
The Citadel +15 & +14.5 (0.4u overall) WIN
North Carolina A&T / Jacksonville State Under 45.5 (0.2u) WIN
Eastern Kentucky -23.5 (0.4u) WIN
New Hampshire / Maine Under 45 (0.2u) WIN
New Hampshire -3 (0.2u) LOSS
McNeese State PK (0.2u) WIN
Oops, missed the A.P. win. Love it when I win with a team that scores zero points -- it's happened a few times over the years.
TD, you plsyinng the ECU game? If so, I'll be tailing.
GL,
Yes, I have ECU -6.5 -120 locked in as of late yesterday evening when they decided to postpone the game. Sorry I didn't re-post that same play right away.
Quote Originally Posted by Trumpinator2020:
TD, you plsyinng the ECU game? If so, I'll be tailing.
GL,
Yes, I have ECU -6.5 -120 locked in as of late yesterday evening when they decided to postpone the game. Sorry I didn't re-post that same play right away.
I basically cancelled my original LSU Over 6.5 wins play or it would have been 7-1. Listening to respected opinions on this board in the preseason scared me a bit, so I went for exactly 7 wins instead.
RSW Win Totals: Tennessee Under 6.5 -165 (risk 0.5 to win 0.303) WIN
LSU Over 6.5 -110 (0.5u) & LSU Under 7 -101 (Risk 0.525u to win 0.52u) call it a PUSH / Cancelled Wager
Washington Over 8.5 -195 & -200 (risk 0.985 to win 0.5u) WIN
New Mexico State Under 6 -135 (to win 0.5u) WIN
Louisville Under 7.5 -120 (to win 0.5u) WIN7.5, really!?
Colorado State Over 5.5 -115 (to win 0.5u) & Added: CSU Under 5.5 +100 (to win 0.3u) Reduced the original Over 5.5 play to 0.2u. LOSS should have just cancelled it altogether when I reduced it down to 0.2u.
Ole Miss Under 6.5 -120 (1u) WIN
Tulane Over 4.5 -110 (0.5u) WIN
2018 RSW Win Totals Recap: 6-1
All $: +3.0u
I basically cancelled my original LSU Over 6.5 wins play or it would have been 7-1. Listening to respected opinions on this board in the preseason scared me a bit, so I went for exactly 7 wins instead.
RSW Win Totals: Tennessee Under 6.5 -165 (risk 0.5 to win 0.303) WIN
LSU Over 6.5 -110 (0.5u) & LSU Under 7 -101 (Risk 0.525u to win 0.52u) call it a PUSH / Cancelled Wager
Washington Over 8.5 -195 & -200 (risk 0.985 to win 0.5u) WIN
New Mexico State Under 6 -135 (to win 0.5u) WIN
Louisville Under 7.5 -120 (to win 0.5u) WIN7.5, really!?
Colorado State Over 5.5 -115 (to win 0.5u) & Added: CSU Under 5.5 +100 (to win 0.3u) Reduced the original Over 5.5 play to 0.2u. LOSS should have just cancelled it altogether when I reduced it down to 0.2u.
I am always in awe of what you do. 
7.5, really!?
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