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2018 Offseason Stuff

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Posted: #76
Quote Originally Posted by undermysac:

Tremendous off season work TD 

  under, how's it going?  You ready for 2018 college football!?

Best of luck to you this season.
 
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Posted: #77
Huesman vs. the Hoos play added below.....

Week 0/1 plays:
Syracuse -1.5  (2u)
Wyoming +1 (1.5u)
Florida State -6 (1u)
Central Florida -16.5  (0.75u) & Connecticut +24 -105 (0.75u)
Old Dominion -5.5 (0.75u)
Washington +5.5  (0.5u)
Florida Atlantic +24 hook (0.3u)
Texas -7 hook (0.2u)
Louisville +31.5  hook (0.2u)
Ball State -9.5
Villanova +18.5
Iowa State -12
South Dakota State / Iowa State Under 56.5
Florida -33
Louisiana Monroe -11
Stony Brook / Air Force Under 60 & Under 59.5
James Madison +14.5 hook & again +14.5 (no hook this time)  
interesting....somebody hammering NC State
Added:  Richmond / Virginia Under 56.5

College Extra Week 1:
Eastern Kentucky -23.5
The Citadel +15 & +14.5
McNeese State PK
New Hampshire / Maine Under 45
New Hampshire -3

GOY Lines:
Mississippi State -3 (1u)  (Week 2 at Kansas State on 9/8)


 
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Posted: #78
Adding Pac 12 & AAC below....  Tweaking a few for week 1 with injuries, suspensions, grad transfers, re-evaluating my 1st pass, etc...... I'm sure I am missing some updates and there will be many more minor adjustments going forward.

Preliminary 2018 Big Ten week 1 PR#s:

Ohio State  97.3
Wisconsin  91.2
Michigan  90.4
Michigan State  88.7
Penn State  88.5
Iowa  78.5
Nebraska  76.5
Northwestern  75.1
Maryland  74.1
Purdue  73.4
Indiana  72.3
Minnesota  71.3
Illinois  67.4
Rutgers  66.2

Preliminary 2018 Big 12 week 1 PR#s:

Oklahoma  91.9
Texas  87.7
West Virginia  80.9
Oklahoma State  80.6
TCU  80.1
Iowa State  78.3
Texas Tech  75.6
Kansas State  75.5
Baylor  75.4
Kansas  59.2

Preliminary 2018 ACC week 1 PR#s:

Clemson  99.2
Miami  87.8
Florida State  86.7
Boston College  79.3
North Carolina State  77.2
Louisville  77.2
Georgia Tech  76.9
Duke  75.8
Virginia Tech  75.6
North Carolina  75.0
Syracuse  74.8
Pittsburgh  74.7
Wake Forest  73.4  *does account for suspensions
Virginia  67.6

Preliminary 2018 SEC week 1 PR#s:

Alabama  98.5
Georgia  97.3
Auburn  91.0
Mississippi State  90.8
Florida  84.5
LSU  84.5
Texas A&M  81.7
South Carolina  77.9
Missouri  74.7
Arkansas  74.6
Kentucky  73.2
Mississippi  72.5
Tennessee 72.4
Vanderbilt  64.4

Preliminary 2018 Pac 12 week 1 PR#s:

Washington  93.1
USC  86.2
Stanford  85.8
Oregon  84.7
Utah  77.4
Arizona  75.5
California  74.6
UCLA  74.2
Arizona State  74.0
Washington State  71.9
Colorado  70.6
Oregon State 61.2

Preliminary 2018 AAC week 1 PR#s:

Central Florida  77.9
Memphis  77.9
Houston  77.6
Navy  72.9
South Florida  69.0
Temple  68.5
Tulane  66.2
SMU    65.7
Tulsa  63.7
Cincinnati  63.5
Connecticut  58.6
East Carolina  57.5

As always, more confident on some than others, but forcing myself to evaluate every team.  I find that volatile, high ceiling teams are tough to prescribe one # (hence the reason I adjust case by case from the baseline #s depending upon 'the spot' for each team)
 
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Posted: #79
Adding Independents below....  And one more Big Ten team to adjust..... may need to adjust further by the time all of the fallout is known.

Preliminary 2018 Big Ten week 1 PR#s:

Ohio State  93.8
Wisconsin  91.2
Michigan  90.4
Michigan State  88.7
Penn State  88.5
Iowa  78.5
Nebraska  76.5
Northwestern  75.1
Maryland  74.1
Purdue  73.4
Indiana  72.3
Minnesota  71.3
Illinois  67.4
Rutgers  66.2

Preliminary 2018 Big 12 week 1 PR#s:

Oklahoma  91.9
Texas  87.7
West Virginia  80.9
Oklahoma State  80.6
TCU  80.1
Iowa State  78.3
Texas Tech  75.6
Kansas State  75.5
Baylor  75.4
Kansas  59.2

Preliminary 2018 ACC week 1 PR#s:

Clemson  99.2
Miami  87.8
Florida State  86.7
Boston College  79.3
North Carolina State  77.2
Louisville  77.2
Georgia Tech  76.9
Duke  75.8
Virginia Tech  75.6
North Carolina  75.0
Syracuse  74.8
Pittsburgh  74.7
Wake Forest  73.4  *does account for suspensions
Virginia  67.6

Preliminary 2018 SEC week 1 PR#s:

Alabama  98.5
Georgia  97.3
Auburn  91.0
Mississippi State  90.8
Florida  84.5
LSU  84.5
Texas A&M  81.7
South Carolina  77.9
Missouri  74.7
Arkansas  74.6
Kentucky  73.2
Mississippi  72.5
Tennessee 72.4
Vanderbilt  64.4

Preliminary 2018 Pac 12 week 1 PR#s:

Washington  93.1
USC  86.2
Stanford  85.8
Oregon  84.7
Utah  77.4
Arizona  75.5
California  74.6
UCLA  74.2
Arizona State  74.0
Washington State  71.9
Colorado  70.6
Oregon State 61.2

Preliminary 2018 AAC week 1 PR#s:

Central Florida  77.9
Memphis  77.9
Houston  77.6
Navy  72.9
South Florida  69.0
Temple  68.5
Tulane  66.2
SMU    65.7
Tulsa  63.7
Cincinnati  63.5
Connecticut  58.6
East Carolina  57.5

Preliminary 2018 Independents week 1 PR#s:

Notre Dame  91.2
Army  66.6
BYU  65.1
Massachusetts  61.2
New Mexico State  57.9
Liberty  45.3
 
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Posted: #80
One more GOY play added below.... would have been two, but I was too slow on the Mississippi State +20 at Alabama play, currently seeing +18.5 -- mulling it over at this #.

Week 0/1 plays:
Syracuse -1.5  (2u)
Wyoming +1 (1.5u)
Florida State -6 (1u)
Central Florida -16.5  (0.75u) & Connecticut +24 -105 (0.75u)
Old Dominion -5.5 (0.75u)
Washington +5.5  (0.5u)
Florida Atlantic +24 hook (0.3u)
Texas -7 hook (0.2u)
Louisville +31.5  hook (0.2u)
Ball State -9.5
Villanova +18.5
Iowa State -12
South Dakota State / Iowa State Under 56.5
Florida -33
Louisiana Monroe -11
Stony Brook / Air Force Under 60 & Under 59.5
James Madison +14.5 hook & again +14.5 (no hook this time)  
Richmond / Virginia Under 56.5

College Extra Week 1:
Eastern Kentucky -23.5
The Citadel +15 & +14.5
McNeese State PK
New Hampshire / Maine Under 45
New Hampshire -3

GOY Lines:
Mississippi State -3 (1u)  (Week 2 at Kansas State on 9/8)
Added:  Notre Dame -7 (0.5u)  (Week 4 at Wake Forest on 9/22)

 
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Posted: #81
Quote Originally Posted by TD21:

I've bet on the Heisman margin of victory and won a decent amount when it was L. Jackson vs. D. Watson in 2016, but I don't know if I've ever taken a Heisman prop in the preseason..... for whatever reason possessed me, I took three QBs this year for very small amounts.

Trace McSorley +2000 & +2500
Kyler Murray +2700
Nick Fitzgerald +3300


So, back in June my approach was dual threat QBs.... I didn't realize until seeing a recent thread on here that the Fitzgerald odds have improved.  Took it again yesterday at +4000.  Up to a whopping 0.1u risked on each of these 3 Heisman candidates.

Trace McSorley +2000 & +2500
Kyler Murray +2700
Nick Fitzgerald +3300 & Added +4000
 
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Posted: #82
Yep, I'm still in for the Mississippi State at Alabama play, just keeping it at a half unit wager.

Week 0/1 plays:
Syracuse -1.5  (2u)
Wyoming +1 (1.5u)
Florida State -6 (1u)
Central Florida -16.5  (0.75u) & Connecticut +24 -105 (0.75u)
Old Dominion -5.5 (0.75u)
Washington +5.5  (0.5u)
Florida Atlantic +24 hook (0.3u)
Texas -7 hook (0.2u)
Louisville +31.5  hook (0.2u)
Ball State -9.5
Villanova +18.5
Iowa State -12
South Dakota State / Iowa State Under 56.5
Florida -33
Louisiana Monroe -11
Stony Brook / Air Force Under 60 & Under 59.5
James Madison +14.5 hook & again +14.5 (no hook this time)  
Richmond / Virginia Under 56.5

College Extra Week 1:
Eastern Kentucky -23.5
The Citadel +15 & +14.5
McNeese State PK
New Hampshire / Maine Under 45
New Hampshire -3

GOY Lines:
Mississippi State -3 (1u)  (Week 2 at Kansas State on 9/8)
Notre Dame -7 (0.5u)  (Week 4 at Wake Forest on 9/22)
Added:  Mississippi State +18.5 (0.5u)  (Week 11 on 11/10)

 
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Posted: #83
Powered through the MAC pretty quickly, but here is what I have for now.

Preliminary 2018 Big Ten week 1 PR#s:

Ohio State  93.8
Wisconsin  91.2
Michigan  90.4
Michigan State  88.7
Penn State  88.5
Iowa  78.5
Nebraska  76.5
Northwestern  75.1
Maryland  74.1
Purdue  73.4
Indiana  72.3
Minnesota  71.3
Illinois  67.4
Rutgers  65.7

Preliminary 2018 Big 12 week 1 PR#s:

Oklahoma  91.9
Texas  87.7
West Virginia  80.9
Oklahoma State  80.6
TCU  80.1
Iowa State  78.3
Texas Tech  75.6
Kansas State  75.5
Baylor  75.4
Kansas  59.2

Preliminary 2018 ACC week 1 PR#s:

Clemson  99.2
Miami  87.8
Florida State  86.7
Boston College  79.3
North Carolina State  77.2
Louisville  77.2
Georgia Tech  76.9
Duke  75.8
Virginia Tech  75.6
North Carolina  75.0
Syracuse  74.8
Pittsburgh  74.7
Wake Forest  73.4  *does account for suspensions
Virginia  67.6

Preliminary 2018 SEC week 1 PR#s:

Alabama  98.5
Georgia  97.3
Auburn  91.0
Mississippi State  90.8
Florida  84.5
LSU  84.5
Texas A&M  81.7
South Carolina  77.9
Missouri  74.7
Arkansas  74.6
Kentucky  73.2
Mississippi  72.5
Tennessee 72.4
Vanderbilt  64.4

Preliminary 2018 Pac 12 week 1 PR#s:

Washington  93.1
USC  86.2
Stanford  85.8
Oregon  84.7
Utah  77.4
Arizona  75.5
California  74.6
UCLA  74.2
Arizona State  74.0
Washington State  71.9
Colorado  70.6
Oregon State 61.2

Preliminary 2018 AAC week 1 PR#s:

Central Florida  77.9
Memphis  77.9
Houston  77.6
Navy  72.9
South Florida  69.0
Temple  68.5
Tulane  66.2
SMU    65.7
Tulsa  63.7
Cincinnati  63.5
Connecticut  58.6
East Carolina  57.5

Preliminary 2018 Independents week 1 PR#s:

Notre Dame  91.2
Army  66.6
BYU  65.1
Massachusetts  61.2
New Mexico State  57.9
Liberty  45.3

Preliminary 2018 MAC week 1 PR#s:
Ohio University  70.0
Toledo  68.7
Northern Illinois  67.4
Miami (OH)  64.7
Western Michigan  64.7
Buffalo  64.5
Eastern Michigan  61.5
Central Michigan  56.7
Bowling Green  56.5
Akron  56.5
Ball State  52.3
Kent State  47.6

 
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Posted: #84

Thank u so much for posting your point spread ratings ....

 

Excellent work 

 

We have plenty of schools very close ....

BEST OF HEALTH, HAPPINESS,WEALTH, BLESSINGS and LUCK TO ALL !!
 
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Posted: #85

Quote Originally Posted by TD21:

Quote Originally Posted by TD21:

I've bet on the Heisman margin of victory and won a decent amount when it was L. Jackson vs. D. Watson in 2016, but I don't know if I've ever taken a Heisman prop in the preseason..... for whatever reason possessed me, I took three QBs this year for very small amounts.Trace McSorley +2000 & +2500Kyler Murray +2700Nick Fitzgerald +3300
So, back in June my approach was dual threat QBs.... I didn't realize until seeing a recent thread on here that the Fitzgerald odds have improved.  Took it again yesterday at +4000.  Up to a whopping 0.1u risked on each of these 3 Heisman candidates.Trace McSorley +2000 & +2500Kyler Murray +2700Nick Fitzgerald +3300 & Added +4000

 

THE ONLY 2 Heisman wagers i ever won were on Lamar & Cam ...Dual threat qbs have a huge advantage ...

 

Best of luck Brother ...On Fitz as well 

BEST OF HEALTH, HAPPINESS,WEALTH, BLESSINGS and LUCK TO ALL !!
 
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Posted: #86

Hey Td big fan and long time follower. 

 

With you on most of your games especially Cuse & miss st in week 2. Mind givin is a short (or long) one line write about your perspective on those games? Also your thoughts on the jams Madison +14

 
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Posted: #87
TD- 

Good to see you this year buddy! Good luck and let's get after the bookies this year!!
 
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Posted: #88
Quote Originally Posted by a1_tellem:

Hey Td big fan and long time follower. 

 

With you on most of your games especially Cuse & miss st in week 2. Mind givin is a short (or long) one line write about your perspective on those games? Also your thoughts on the jams Madison +14


a1, I might have to go with the short version on some  parts of these.  Limited time is the norm for me.

I think the Syracuse offense matches up pretty well with the WMU as long as QB Dungey is healthy.  The +/- ATS margin #s for Syracuse last year with Dungey starting vs. other QBs starting at the end of the year were staggering (*but it is tough to quantify how much of those results are from the defense cratering to end the year as well).  Despite new #1 &#2 WR options, I think Dungey and this offense will put up enough points to cover.  This should also be the best Syracuse rushing offense since Babers arrived.  The WMU defense is looking for answers at DT.  And for those unaware, you can cross off CB Sam Beal in your Phil Steele.  It's no longer listed on Don Best, but the 2018 preseason all MAC CB was ineligible and went into the NFL supplemental draft.  So both he and CB D. Phillips are gone.  WMU does look solid at DE and Safety and the new LBs have speed and upside.  I do like the WMU offense with QB Wassink healthy and better experience coming back this year.  They may get a few points on Syracuse, but I just think they (Syracuse) put up more on WMU and outscore them.  The Syracuse D-Line is the relative strength of this defense.  LBs completely new.  The Secondary is at least experienced although could be thin on depth beyond the starting unit.  And I did bet this game immediately when it opened, so I have a solid # working for me as well.

For Mississippi State, short answer is I just think they are better than most people are giving them credit for.  My preseason PR# ratings have them at #10 or #11 overall I believe it is (about the same as Michigan).  The new HC steps into a great situation.  Unless QB Fitzgerald suffers an unexpected setback, they should simply be the better team here that laying only a FG as road chalk does not bother me.  I once knew a strong Xs & Os college football mind  and Moorhead's offensive mind reminds me of that and I think he'll do very well in year 1 and should really improve their passing game as well.

For James Madison, this is a small to moderate size play only (not posting units yet since I am limited until closer to kickoff).  And I would not play JMU unless getting the +14.5 number.  My #s have the base line at about 12.5, so not much true line value at all but on the right side of a key #.  FWIW, Massey had 10.5, but 5D shaded it toward JMU and opened at only -8.5.  It has since been bet up to +14.5 (6 full pts) so that I could not pass up for a small play.
Last year JMU had 4 starters back on offense and 9 starters back on defense.  Their offense was still solid, but down some from the huge 2016 #s.  They rode a strong defense in 2017, but that defense has heavy losses going into 2018, especially in the front 6/7.  The JMU Secondary is the best in FCS and will be a fun matchup to watch strength vs. strength with NC State's offensive strength being QB Finley and those 3 WRs returning.  And they add an OSU Safety transfer that should start.  And the defensive scout team POY in 2017 is also a Safety.  The JMU offense returns essentially 3 starters (due to injuries, 3 guys combined to make starts at Guard that I would consider the equivalent of 1 full time starter back).  They also lost a projected first time starter at Tackle in the 2017 preseason that is now back (3 starts in 2016).  I think this O-Line can produce a running attack somewhere between the excellent 2016 version and the 'only' decent 2017 version.  JMU has a stable of RBs that goes 4 deep that would all start at most FCS schools.  With a rebuilt front 6 for NC State, I think JMU can make a few big plays on offense to stay in the game.  JMU should be the same or better for production on offense at all positions with the exception of QB production being tough to predict at this point.  Pitt transfer DiNucci will compete with last year's backup to try and replace Schor.  The WRs corp loses its statistical leader, but does return #2 &#3.  I really liked what I saw out of Stapleton in the FCS playoffs.  He's big enough to create matchup problems 1 on 1. 
I barely touched on the JMU defensive concerns; the optimist sees that the supposedly improved O-Line still couldn't block them very well in the spring (the HC/DC want speed over size and will continue to try and attack on D -- 52 sacks in 15 2017 games).  The pessimistic thinks the O-Line is still 'only' average and the defense, although inexperienced, was able to take advantage of that in the spring format.
 
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Posted: #89
Quote Originally Posted by blowoutgm:

TD- 

Good to see you this year buddy! Good luck and let's get after the bookies this year!!

Thanks blowoutgm, best of luck to you as well!  

I saw you pulled the string on the West Virginia lean that you mentioned awhile back.  I would definitely lean West Virginia in that matchup as well.  The Tennessee O-Line and CBs are big concerns for them.

 
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Posted: #90

Quote Originally Posted by TD21:

Quote Originally Posted by a1_tellem:

Hey Td big fan and long time follower.    With you on most of your games especially Cuse & miss st in week 2. Mind givin is a short (or long) one line write about your perspective on those games? Also your thoughts on the jams Madison +14
a1, I might have to go with the short version on some  parts of these.  Limited time is the norm for me.I think the Syracuse offense matches up pretty well with the WMU as long as QB Dungey is healthy.  The +/- ATS margin #s for Syracuse last year with Dungey starting vs. other QBs starting at the end of the year were staggering (*but it is tough to quantify how much of those results are from the defense cratering to end the year as well).  Despite new #1  WR options, I think Dungey and this offense will put up enough points to cover.  This should also be the best Syracuse rushing offense since Babers arrived.  The WMU defense is looking for answers at DT.  And for those unaware, you can cross off CB Sam Beal in your Phil Steele.  It's no longer listed on Don Best, but the 2018 preseason all MAC CB was ineligible and went into the NFL supplemental draft.  So both he and CB D. Phillips are gone.  WMU does look solid at DE and Safety and the new LBs have speed and upside.  I do like the WMU offense with QB Wassink healthy and better experience coming back this year.  They may get a few points on Syracuse, but I just think they (Syracuse) put up more on WMU and outscore them.  The Syracuse D-Line is the relative strength of this defense.  LBs completely new.  The Secondary is at least experienced although could be thin on depth beyond the starting unit.  And I did bet this game immediately when it opened, so I have a solid # working for me as well.For Mississippi State, short answer is I just think they are better than most people are giving them credit for.  My preseason PR# ratings have them at #10 or #11 overall I believe it is (about the same as Michigan).  The new HC steps into a great situation.  Unless QB Fitzgerald suffers an unexpected setback, they should simply be the better team here that laying only a FG as road chalk does not bother me.  I once knew a strong Xs & Os college football mind  and Moorhead's offensive mind reminds me of that and I think he'll do very well in year 1 and should really improve their passing game as well....

Brav - fuckin' - 'O.... great work as always TD ... keep 'em coming when you have time ... an_clap

 
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Posted: #91
Nice work man.  I wish more ppl on this board would follow your lead and add some value/contributions for the rest of the covers community.. 

TIP:  I recommend everyone try to look at college football teams like brands trading on the stock exchange.  When you look at the teams that were great ATS last year, Iowa St and Fresno State were among the best.  These programs are perfect examples of teams that were undervalued bc of the logo they had on their helmet.  
 
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Posted: #92
Sun Belt added below.  Tying to keep up on other updates as well.

.... Too many characters, d@mn - I'll split this into two posts for P5 & Non-Power 5.


Preliminary 2018 AAC week 1 PR#s:

Central Florida  77.9
Memphis  77.9
Houston  77.6
Navy  72.9
South Florida  69.0
Temple  68.5
Tulane  66.2
SMU    65.7
Tulsa  63.7
Cincinnati  63.5
Connecticut  58.6
East Carolina  57.5

Preliminary 2018 Independents week 1 PR#s:

Notre Dame  91.2
Army  66.6
BYU  65.1
Massachusetts  61.2
New Mexico State  57.9
Liberty  45.3

Preliminary 2018 MAC week 1 PR#s:
Ohio University  70.0
Toledo  68.7
Northern Illinois  67.4
Miami (OH)  64.7
Western Michigan  64.7
Buffalo  64.5
Eastern Michigan  61.5
Central Michigan  56.7
Bowling Green  56.5
Akron  56.5
Ball State  52.3
Kent State  47.6

Preliminary 2018 Sun Belt week 1 PR#s:
Troy  69.0
Arkansas State  66.4
Appalachian State  64.5
Louisiana Monroe  62.5
Georgia Southern  61.8
South Alabama  57.7
Louisiana Lafayette  53.8
Georgia State  52.7
Coastal Carolina  51.9
Texas State  47.5

 
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Posted: #93

Preliminary 2018 Big Ten week 1 PR#s:
 
Ohio State  93.8
Wisconsin  91.2
Michigan  90.4
Penn State  88.5
Michigan State  86.9
Iowa  76.5
Nebraska  76.5
Northwestern  75.1
Maryland  74.1
Purdue  73.4
Indiana  72.3
Minnesota  71.3
Illinois  67.4
Rutgers  65.7
 
Preliminary 2018 Big 12 week 1 PR#s:
 
Oklahoma  91.9
Texas  87.7
West Virginia  80.9
Oklahoma State  80.6
TCU  80.1
Iowa State  78.3
Texas Tech  75.6
Kansas State  75.5
Baylor  75.4
Kansas  59.2
 
Preliminary 2018 ACC week 1 PR#s:
 
Clemson  99.2
Miami  87.8
Florida State  85.8
Boston College  79.3
North Carolina State  77.2
Louisville  77.2
Georgia Tech  76.9
Duke  75.8
Virginia Tech  75.6
Syracuse  74.8
Pittsburgh  74.7
North Carolina  73.5
Wake Forest  73.4
Virginia  67.6
 
Preliminary 2018 SEC week 1 PR#s:
 
Alabama  98.5
Georgia  97.3
Auburn  91.0
Mississippi State  90.8
Florida  84.5
LSU  84.5
Texas A&M  81.7
South Carolina  77.9
Missouri  74.7
Arkansas  74.6
Kentucky  73.2
Mississippi  72.5
Tennessee 72.4
Vanderbilt  65.2
 
Preliminary 2018 Pac 12 week 1 PR#s:
 
Washington  93.1
USC  86.2
Stanford  85.8
Oregon  84.7
Utah  77.4
Arizona  75.5
California  74.6
UCLA  74.2
Arizona State  74.0
Washington State  71.9
Colorado  70.6
Oregon State 61.2

 
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Posted: #94
Quote Originally Posted by alopez14325:

Nice work man.  I wish more ppl on this board would follow your lead and add some value/contributions for the rest of the covers community.. 

TIP:  I recommend everyone try to look at college football teams like brands trading on the stock exchange.  When you look at the teams that were great ATS last year, Iowa St and Fresno State were among the best.  These programs are perfect examples of teams that were undervalued bc of the logo they had on their helmet.  

alopez, regarding that tip, it occurred to me a couple years ago how interesting it is that with the point spread -- the supposed great equalizer (like a handicap in golf), yet we still have teams for a full season that do very well or very poorly against the spread.  As you mention, Iowa State was 11-1-1 ATS and Fresno State was 11-2-1.  The year before Temple was 12-2 (all 3 figures using this site's stats).  Obviously teams are overvalued or undervalued for an extended period of time or this would not happen.  Most often sportsbooks simply take their vig at a number with even $ on each side and move on (*sometimes, especially late in the year (when they have more data) you'll see them set a line that indicates they're playing one side and they're ok with not having the 50/50 $ split).  Is the line that gets 50/50 $ the right number?  Not necessarily.  We have to look for spots for plays and try to stay ahead of the curve in being able to analyze a team's value.  I've tried for a couple years now to do a really simple exercise at the end of each season with actual scores to assign a numerical value to each team that equates to each team being 6-6 ATS and/or net zero for their full season +/- ATS margin.  Sometimes this is impossible to have both criteria due to inconsistent teams (i.e., you may get them to 6-6, but in their 6 ATS covers they had large margins, and in their 6 ATS losses they did not cover by narrow margins, or vice versa).  

Iowa State for 2017 with a rating of 79.4 grades out at 6-5-2 ATS at this # (*Any ATS margin result between -0.99 & +0.99 I grade as a Push - this helps me identify consistent teams and get a feel that the calculated # is "correct" if a team is near the 0.0 target on a game to game basis).  But even at 6-5-2, their full season ATS margin was +4.3 ppg meaning that I would have to raise their PR# rating by 4.3 points to get the 0.0 net zero target.  Without the Oklahoma game alone this drops to +2.5.  There is some decision making here, as I chose to leave the # at 79.4.  Part of the reason for that was that ISU was +7.4 for ATS margin (and 5-2-1 ATS) through 8 games, but then leveled off in their final 4 games at -2.1 for ATS margin and 0-3-1 ATS.


I'd go on about Fresno as well, but sleep is a priority at the moment.    Anyway, just food for thought as you continue to look for teams at a low/high value to play on or against.  Best of luck this year!  
 
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Posted: #95

Opening Totals locked in this afternoon:

Washington / Auburn Under 51

Northern Illinois / Iowa Under 51

Michigan / Notre Dame Under 48

 
Legend
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Posted: #96
Quote Originally Posted by TD21:

Opening Totals locked in this afternoon:

Washington / Auburn Under 51

Northern Illinois / Iowa Under 51

Michigan / Notre Dame Under 48





Well Done , Bud    
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
 
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Posted: #97
td....thoughts on these? 

 wyo/nmst u47.......think this wyo D  holds nmst u17 and likely doesnt score more than 24 themselves.....nmst D is aggressive and new pieces for both offenses....if i can find nmst tmttl u21 i'll take it gladly

other is duke/army u47.5 ......27-17 ly and both Ds better.....duke held army to season low rushing and we know success against option.... big question is duke O ....i see this with a similar score or lower......ttl suggest duke gets 30...not sure about that
 
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Posted: #98
and one more....

sdst/stan u51.5...played to 37 ttl ly.....both clock eating ground games and good defenses...ttl suggest stan puts up 32.....hmmmm....not sure that happens ...only time LY sdst gave up >28 was bowl game vs army and you can bet rocky won't let them forget how they got run over in that game
 
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Posted: #99
Quote Originally Posted by puffkit:

td....thoughts on these? 

 wyo/nmst u47.......think this wyo D  holds nmst u17 and likely doesnt score more than 24 themselves.....nmst D is aggressive and new pieces for both offenses....if i can find nmst tmttl u21 i'll take it gladly

other is duke/army u47.5 ......27-17 ly and both Ds better.....duke held army to season low rushing and we know success against option.... big question is duke O ....i see this with a similar score or lower......ttl suggest duke gets 30...not sure about that

puffkit, the NMSU vs. Wyoming game is one total that I looked into a couple weeks back.  I told myself no play at the time with the early defensive injuries / suspensions and was also hoping for just over 7 touchdowns (49.5 or so), but the books did a nice job of adjusting slightly to 47.  And I think I'd rather take 1st half under if I could get 24 instead of a full game play since both teams are breaking in new QBs and also with Wyoming's approach to wear teams out for a full 4 quarters.  NMSU starting DE Wilcots is suspended as is Wyoming starting LB Maluia.  And NMSU FS Laforce is listed as questionable.
But revisiting this Total, most of the recent key injuries to both teams are on the offensive side of the ball.  A couple JUCO WRs for NMSU expected to replace J. Scott are out & nursing a hamstring.  And Wyoming's O-Line now has two starters that make the injury report.  I would monitor updates and decide closer to kickoff.

Duke / Army is a Total that I have not reviewed much.  Duke is typically solid on defense vs. the option, has a lot of time to prepare with it being a week 1 game, has seen Army before, and most of their defensive questions are in the Secondary.  What Army will do at QB is of interest to me.  I know they had considered moving in K. Walker from RB to have more of a running threat at QB as opposed to K. Hopkins taking over and being more of a passer.  The Army D should remain solid.  But the Duke O could improve some and that would be my only slight concern with this play.  Duke's O was pretty inconsistent in 2017 and really down during their losing streak (QB Jones banged up).  If Jones starts this year healthy, they should be more consistent.  But like you said, 30 pts seems about right (or less) considering Duke possessions should be limited and Army is pretty solid on defense again.  

I can definitely see why you lean Under for both plays.
 
 
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Posted: #100
Quote Originally Posted by puffkit:

and one more....

sdst/stan u51.5...played to 37 ttl ly.....both clock eating ground games and good defenses...ttl suggest stan puts up 32.....hmmmm....not sure that happens ...only time LY sdst gave up >28 was bowl game vs army and you can bet rocky won't let them forget how they got run over in that game

puff, SDSU is a team I still need to get to for a full review.  At a glance, again agree that both teams style of play could/should lead to less possessions for each team (both teams over #115 in adjusted pace for 2017).  I just went back and looked at my Stanford notes and I do have them scoring more ppg on offense this year and giving up more ppg on defense than 2017.  I think this outlook has led to the 51.5 opener that we see which feels higher than we would normally expect for these two teams.  I think the difference between this game going over or under will be big plays.  If B. Love breaks some long TD runs (and he certainly could) it could be closer to this # than I would initially think.  I will probably pass on this game.  After a little more review, I don't have a good feel for either side, but I can see why you flagged this game.
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