I was hoping to be +money on the ML Dogs, but lost with Oklahoma against the Pokies. Now have some work to be done in the bowls to get that back to the black. Not overly important to be + on ML Dogs, but for me it's a personal agenda. I take ML nibbles on dogs and if it's ending the year in the negative, it means my strategy failed in a way. Overall, the year went well, but personally I want + money across the board.
Going to start putting up my thoughts and leans on all the games. I'm not sure if I will play all of them, but I guess time will tell.
Good luck to everyone this bowl season!
To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Overall ex. ML Dogs : 82-57-4 +480.58 units
Favorites : 14-11-1 +46.20 units
Underdogs : 38-26-3 +238.19 units
Totals : 30-20-0 +209.39 units
ML Dogs : 11-27-0 -13.20 units
I was hoping to be +money on the ML Dogs, but lost with Oklahoma against the Pokies. Now have some work to be done in the bowls to get that back to the black. Not overly important to be + on ML Dogs, but for me it's a personal agenda. I take ML nibbles on dogs and if it's ending the year in the negative, it means my strategy failed in a way. Overall, the year went well, but personally I want + money across the board.
Going to start putting up my thoughts and leans on all the games. I'm not sure if I will play all of them, but I guess time will tell.
Let it be known, though this should be obvious, Wyoming can not stop the run. Oh and Temple loves to run. Wyoming has lost 4 games this year by a combined 168-67, which on average is 42-17. The opponents and stats are included below:
Nebraska : 13th rushing / 333 yards / 38 points
Utah State : 6th rushing / 318 yards / 63 points
TCU : 20th ranked / 390 yards / 31 points
Boise : 40th ranked / 200 yards / 36 points
Temples ranks 7th in the nation in running the football. Yes they did it in the MAC where defense seems to be an unknown word, but don't dilute the ability of Bernard Pierce and even Matt Brown for that matter. The combination of the two is better than the previous backs who all shredded the Wyoming defense.
Lean : Temple -6.5 and UNDER
Gildan New Mexico Bowl
Let it be known, though this should be obvious, Wyoming can not stop the run. Oh and Temple loves to run. Wyoming has lost 4 games this year by a combined 168-67, which on average is 42-17. The opponents and stats are included below:
Nebraska : 13th rushing / 333 yards / 38 points
Utah State : 6th rushing / 318 yards / 63 points
TCU : 20th ranked / 390 yards / 31 points
Boise : 40th ranked / 200 yards / 36 points
Temples ranks 7th in the nation in running the football. Yes they did it in the MAC where defense seems to be an unknown word, but don't dilute the ability of Bernard Pierce and even Matt Brown for that matter. The combination of the two is better than the previous backs who all shredded the Wyoming defense.
Speaking of teams who like to run the bowl.. Utah State is just that and while they have won 5 in a row and for the most part have really been in every game this year, I'm not getting them laying points in this one. Frank Solich is 0-3 in bowl games sicne he took over at Ohio, which seems to contradict the belief that he excels at scheming his opponent. I think he'll benefit from the typically one dimensional offense of Utah State and a better all around team than last year when they got smoked by Troy. Tyler Tettleton is coming off the worst game of his career in the MAC Championship game where he threw three picks in a 23-20 loss to Northern Illinois. He will bounce back from that terrible performance and the offensive balance of the Bobcats should present challenges for the Aggies defense.
Lean : Ohio +2.5, Ohio ML, OVER
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Speaking of teams who like to run the bowl.. Utah State is just that and while they have won 5 in a row and for the most part have really been in every game this year, I'm not getting them laying points in this one. Frank Solich is 0-3 in bowl games sicne he took over at Ohio, which seems to contradict the belief that he excels at scheming his opponent. I think he'll benefit from the typically one dimensional offense of Utah State and a better all around team than last year when they got smoked by Troy. Tyler Tettleton is coming off the worst game of his career in the MAC Championship game where he threw three picks in a 23-20 loss to Northern Illinois. He will bounce back from that terrible performance and the offensive balance of the Bobcats should present challenges for the Aggies defense.
I keep trying to find the motivation for San Diego State in this one as they are forced to travel across the country to NO, which is basically a home game for La-Laf. Beyond that, the Aztecs are switching conferences and that will happen win or lose. Potential spotlight game for Hillman on national TV, but he likely will be back next year and have plenty of opportunity to shred the Big East on national TV. You have to handicap the city of New Orleans and wonder how focused the Aztecs will be. Long time coming for La-Laf to get back to a bowl game and now the chance to win one in front of the home faithful. We know Hillman can run, but despite a 20-5 TD:Int ratio, I have some reservations about a QB who completes 52% of his passes. I'm not saying Lindley wont' make plays, but he'll also fail to make plays. Blaine Gautier has been impressive and if you take out his one dud against Arkansas State, he has 18 touchdowns and 2 interceptions, along with completion numbers hovering around 65%. While I think San Diego State has the talent, I think the setting of this game, execution and motivation will favor La-Laf.
Lean : La-Lafayette +5 and ML
R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
I keep trying to find the motivation for San Diego State in this one as they are forced to travel across the country to NO, which is basically a home game for La-Laf. Beyond that, the Aztecs are switching conferences and that will happen win or lose. Potential spotlight game for Hillman on national TV, but he likely will be back next year and have plenty of opportunity to shred the Big East on national TV. You have to handicap the city of New Orleans and wonder how focused the Aztecs will be. Long time coming for La-Laf to get back to a bowl game and now the chance to win one in front of the home faithful. We know Hillman can run, but despite a 20-5 TD:Int ratio, I have some reservations about a QB who completes 52% of his passes. I'm not saying Lindley wont' make plays, but he'll also fail to make plays. Blaine Gautier has been impressive and if you take out his one dud against Arkansas State, he has 18 touchdowns and 2 interceptions, along with completion numbers hovering around 65%. While I think San Diego State has the talent, I think the setting of this game, execution and motivation will favor La-Laf.
I was looking at the SDS / LA game and loving the over. If what you say is true about SDS...do you think that translates into lower scoring? (over 58.5)
Thanks.....C
Spaz,
I was looking at the SDS / LA game and loving the over. If what you say is true about SDS...do you think that translates into lower scoring? (over 58.5)
Let it be known, though this should be obvious, Wyoming can not stop the run. Oh and Temple loves to run. Wyoming has lost 4 games this year by a combined 168-67, which on average is 42-17. The opponents and stats are included below:
Nebraska : 13th rushing / 333 yards / 38 points
Utah State : 6th rushing / 318 yards / 63 points
TCU : 20th ranked / 390 yards / 31 points
Boise : 40th ranked / 200 yards / 36 points
Temples ranks 7th in the nation in running the football. Yes they did it in the MAC where defense seems to be an unknown word, but don't dilute the ability of Bernard Pierce and even Matt Brown for that matter. The combination of the two is better than the previous backs who all shredded the Wyoming defense.
Lean : Temple -6.5 and UNDER
Thats a pretty good list of 4 teams that beat Wyoming, not sure if I wanna lump Temple in there. Now they get a month to prepare and get healthy while playing really close to home....I'll take the TD....
Quote Originally Posted by SettleDownSpaz:
Gildan New Mexico Bowl
Let it be known, though this should be obvious, Wyoming can not stop the run. Oh and Temple loves to run. Wyoming has lost 4 games this year by a combined 168-67, which on average is 42-17. The opponents and stats are included below:
Nebraska : 13th rushing / 333 yards / 38 points
Utah State : 6th rushing / 318 yards / 63 points
TCU : 20th ranked / 390 yards / 31 points
Boise : 40th ranked / 200 yards / 36 points
Temples ranks 7th in the nation in running the football. Yes they did it in the MAC where defense seems to be an unknown word, but don't dilute the ability of Bernard Pierce and even Matt Brown for that matter. The combination of the two is better than the previous backs who all shredded the Wyoming defense.
Lean : Temple -6.5 and UNDER
Thats a pretty good list of 4 teams that beat Wyoming, not sure if I wanna lump Temple in there. Now they get a month to prepare and get healthy while playing really close to home....I'll take the TD....
Cooler - Very slight lean to the over. Just based on offensive talent, SD State should still find the endzone. I see this game playing at least into the 50's, so slight lean to the over for now. I'm going to look into the totals for tomorrow a bit more tonight.
Train - Valid point, but I think the Temple D is formidable. They play in the MAC where defense is a scarcity and they still managed some impressive numbers.
BigDog - thanks
Louis - thanks buddy, nice to see you on the MAC boys tomorrow
14 - Agree, I think they embrace being at home and bring home a victory for the hoem crowd.
tooez - thanks buddy
bullmoose - thanks, appreciate it
Cooler - Very slight lean to the over. Just based on offensive talent, SD State should still find the endzone. I see this game playing at least into the 50's, so slight lean to the over for now. I'm going to look into the totals for tomorrow a bit more tonight.
Train - Valid point, but I think the Temple D is formidable. They play in the MAC where defense is a scarcity and they still managed some impressive numbers.
BigDog - thanks
Louis - thanks buddy, nice to see you on the MAC boys tomorrow
14 - Agree, I think they embrace being at home and bring home a victory for the hoem crowd.
Slight moose job with the Temple-Wyoming under, but you have to accept those are going to happen and move on.. Getting ready for Tuesday and the games next week
4-2-0 +31.45 units ...
Slight moose job with the Temple-Wyoming under, but you have to accept those are going to happen and move on.. Getting ready for Tuesday and the games next week
On paper, I think Florida International is better than Marshall in all facets of the game, but as we all know, the game is won on the field. However, in this case, what I see on paper I believe will translate onto the field. Marshall's offense doesn't have an identity. They don't have a playmaker and have been very inconsistent this season. Their inefficiencies are even more glaring on the road, which is basically where they will be on Tuesday night. FIU has made great strides as a program over the years and they flash some talent on both sides of the ball. Three of their four losses this year were by a combined 9 points and the 4th was against Arkansas State where they led after three quarters. FIU is a good team with a very formidable coach and I don't see them coming out flat, which in my opinion is the only way they don't cover.
Lean : Florida International -4 and UNDER
PlacinUnits - thanks buddy, great start for you
Beef O' Brady's Bowl
On paper, I think Florida International is better than Marshall in all facets of the game, but as we all know, the game is won on the field. However, in this case, what I see on paper I believe will translate onto the field. Marshall's offense doesn't have an identity. They don't have a playmaker and have been very inconsistent this season. Their inefficiencies are even more glaring on the road, which is basically where they will be on Tuesday night. FIU has made great strides as a program over the years and they flash some talent on both sides of the ball. Three of their four losses this year were by a combined 9 points and the 4th was against Arkansas State where they led after three quarters. FIU is a good team with a very formidable coach and I don't see them coming out flat, which in my opinion is the only way they don't cover.
thanks RJ - been stalking your post like a hawk for your plays.
Florida International -4 (29 units to win 27.62)
Since their 4th quarter collapse on 10/25 against Arkansas State where they allowed 21 points, the FIU defense has really stepped up. In the five games following the loss to Arkansas State, the FIU defensive combined defensive numbers have been as follows:
11.6 Avg. Points Allowed
34.94% 3rd Down Conversions
50.79% Opp. Comp. Pct.
1 TD / 10 Interceptions
3.21 Rushing Yds Allowed / Carry
Quite a response from a unit that all but gave the victory to Arkansas State. One can look to their opponents and be skeptical, but the numbers are still very impressive and the struggles of the Marshall offense especially on the road should have problems with this refocused defense.
Still leaning to the under, waiting out a 49.5, but I don't think that will resurface
thanks RJ - been stalking your post like a hawk for your plays.
Florida International -4 (29 units to win 27.62)
Since their 4th quarter collapse on 10/25 against Arkansas State where they allowed 21 points, the FIU defense has really stepped up. In the five games following the loss to Arkansas State, the FIU defensive combined defensive numbers have been as follows:
11.6 Avg. Points Allowed
34.94% 3rd Down Conversions
50.79% Opp. Comp. Pct.
1 TD / 10 Interceptions
3.21 Rushing Yds Allowed / Carry
Quite a response from a unit that all but gave the victory to Arkansas State. One can look to their opponents and be skeptical, but the numbers are still very impressive and the struggles of the Marshall offense especially on the road should have problems with this refocused defense.
Still leaning to the under, waiting out a 49.5, but I don't think that will resurface
Both teams head into Wednesday's game riding 7 game winning streaks, but quite a far cry from where the Horned Frogs saw themselves last year. Despite the loss of several key players including QB Andy Dalton, there were high hopes for this team again this year. The schedule was set up where if the Horned Frogs ran the table, they likely would see themselves back in a BCS bowl. However, early season losses to Baylor and SMU set the tone for in my opinion what has to be viewed as a disappointing season for TCU. The Horned Frogs did go on the road to beat Boise State, which effectively ruined the season of the Broncos. I give full credit to the team for that impressive win, but that was their bowl. Their season was in the tank after the loss to SMU and they had one chance to resurrect something out of the year. And they did just that by beating Boise.
Now they get the Poinsettia Bowl and an upstart Louisiana Tech team. Does their season change if they win by 20 or win by 1? Not at all. In my opinion, they salvaged their season by beating Boise. Now, Gary Patterson is a verygood motivator, so I'm not saying TCU won't come out to play. But they were a complacent team throughout the year and I expect mcuh of the same on Wednesday. This season, TCU was 0-5 ATS as a favorite of 10-35 points. Their talent was far too much for the cupckaes they faced, but within the 10-35 range, they went 4-1 SU and the scoring in those games was on average 34-23. That's very unimpressive in my opinion. In the 4 losses, QB Casey Pachall completed 64% of his passes, averaged a mere 173 yards through the air and only threw 3 TD's to 1 interception. That's equally as unimpressive.
So, TCU a team who has shown flashes of complaceny all year, salvaged their season by beating Boise State, have proven themselves worthy of acceptance to the Big 12, have a QB whose job is secure for next year and now lay double digits to a hungry La Tech who has been rolling. A team who lost to Houston by 1, Southern Miss by 2 and Mississippi State by 6. They did have a bad loss to Hawaii at home, but Bryant Moniz (400+ yards and 4 TD's) was unconscious that game, so not much they could have done. Colby Cameron, who replaced Nick Isham midway through the season has an opportunity to solidify his status as the team's starting QB next season. He has made the most of the opportunity he was given this season and I think he seizes the moment against a TCU defense that is well off from where they have been in years past.
Leans : Louisiana Tech +10, Louisiana Tech ML, OVER
I've already played Louisiana Tech +10, looking to add more to that bet.
San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl
Both teams head into Wednesday's game riding 7 game winning streaks, but quite a far cry from where the Horned Frogs saw themselves last year. Despite the loss of several key players including QB Andy Dalton, there were high hopes for this team again this year. The schedule was set up where if the Horned Frogs ran the table, they likely would see themselves back in a BCS bowl. However, early season losses to Baylor and SMU set the tone for in my opinion what has to be viewed as a disappointing season for TCU. The Horned Frogs did go on the road to beat Boise State, which effectively ruined the season of the Broncos. I give full credit to the team for that impressive win, but that was their bowl. Their season was in the tank after the loss to SMU and they had one chance to resurrect something out of the year. And they did just that by beating Boise.
Now they get the Poinsettia Bowl and an upstart Louisiana Tech team. Does their season change if they win by 20 or win by 1? Not at all. In my opinion, they salvaged their season by beating Boise. Now, Gary Patterson is a verygood motivator, so I'm not saying TCU won't come out to play. But they were a complacent team throughout the year and I expect mcuh of the same on Wednesday. This season, TCU was 0-5 ATS as a favorite of 10-35 points. Their talent was far too much for the cupckaes they faced, but within the 10-35 range, they went 4-1 SU and the scoring in those games was on average 34-23. That's very unimpressive in my opinion. In the 4 losses, QB Casey Pachall completed 64% of his passes, averaged a mere 173 yards through the air and only threw 3 TD's to 1 interception. That's equally as unimpressive.
So, TCU a team who has shown flashes of complaceny all year, salvaged their season by beating Boise State, have proven themselves worthy of acceptance to the Big 12, have a QB whose job is secure for next year and now lay double digits to a hungry La Tech who has been rolling. A team who lost to Houston by 1, Southern Miss by 2 and Mississippi State by 6. They did have a bad loss to Hawaii at home, but Bryant Moniz (400+ yards and 4 TD's) was unconscious that game, so not much they could have done. Colby Cameron, who replaced Nick Isham midway through the season has an opportunity to solidify his status as the team's starting QB next season. He has made the most of the opportunity he was given this season and I think he seizes the moment against a TCU defense that is well off from where they have been in years past.
Leans : Louisiana Tech +10, Louisiana Tech ML, OVER
I've already played Louisiana Tech +10, looking to add more to that bet.
Longhorn - Yes, I'm aware of Creer and his listing as doubtful, but no impact on my thoughts. The running game will depend on the offensive line and Cameron's ability to stretch the defense, so no real diference who is back there. Hunter Lee is more than capable and has shown that this year. I have a hunch he gets upgraded to probable and plays, but no impact either way on playing La Tech
Longhorn - Yes, I'm aware of Creer and his listing as doubtful, but no impact on my thoughts. The running game will depend on the offensive line and Cameron's ability to stretch the defense, so no real diference who is back there. Hunter Lee is more than capable and has shown that this year. I have a hunch he gets upgraded to probable and plays, but no impact either way on playing La Tech
Marshall's top two RB's have faced four defenses in the top 25 against the run (FIU ranks 24th). In these games, the two combine to average 80 yards rushing per game, 3.4 yards per rush and overall have scored 0 touchdowns. Both have lingering injuries as well, a hernia and a bum knee
added to the FIU play ..
Florida International -4 (33 units to win 31.43)
Marshall's top two RB's have faced four defenses in the top 25 against the run (FIU ranks 24th). In these games, the two combine to average 80 yards rushing per game, 3.4 yards per rush and overall have scored 0 touchdowns. Both have lingering injuries as well, a hernia and a bum knee
GL this bowl season Spaz
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