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Vegas vs KenPom Week 8

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Posted: #201
GET IT!!!!
 
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Posted: #202
Quote Originally Posted by trabs9:

Upside, go to www.kenpom.com and go to FanMatch.  The consensus are on covers.com. 

Thx bro .. I purchased fanmatch .. what is this 65% criteria ??
 
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Posted: #203
Do not be wager on the teams that have over 65% of the bets according to covers contests.
 
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Posted: #204
Also I think it's NOT the  top 10% group it's the entire 6000+  yesterday their was several games where the consenus was over 65% .....yet if you looked at the top cappers they picked that team at a lot smaller % even in some spots there were on the other side!!!!  Also I guess it's up to all of us to decide what time to make that  decision on the %because that % is always changing.
 
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Posted: #205
TheSpread.com is showing both Washington 68% and Maryland over 70% as public bets.
 
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Posted: #206
Quote Originally Posted by trabs9:

Do not be wager on the teams that have over 65% of the bets according to covers contests.
So we are betting the opposite of Kenpom of what they like ?? For instance Kenpom has ILL St by 3 with opening line of Drake - 1 1/2 .. Because it's more than a 2 1/2 point difference we would take Drake ???
 
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Posted: #207
Quote Originally Posted by trabs9:

? Initial finds for today ?

Washington -8.5
Maryland -2, above 65% consensus right now on Covers
Drake +-1
St. John's +6
Indiana St.+8

Not sure why Washington is on the list they opened at -7 ??? That is only a 1 1/2 point difference and between 4 1/2 -8 point lines ther has to be a 3 point difference to qualify , correct ??
 
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Posted: #208
 
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Posted: #209

Quote Originally Posted by Upside:

Not sure why Washington is on the list they opened at -7 ??? That is only a 1 1/2 point difference and between 4 1/2 -8 point lines ther has to be a 3 point difference to qualify , correct ??

BetOnline is typically the first online book to posts line, usually the day before a game.  Use their lines.  You can get this off the scores tab on this site, NCAABB, line moves.   BetOnline opened Washington at -10.5.

Correct, you would take Drake.  Always side with Vegas.

 
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Posted: #210
Quote Originally Posted by trabs9:

BetOnline is typically the first online book to posts line, usually the day before a game.  Use their lines.  You can get this off the scores tab on this site, NCAABB, line moves.   BetOnline opened Washington at -10.5.

Correct, you would take Drake.  Always side with Vegas.

Great ... thx .. I will use betonline for the opening lines ..
 
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Posted: #211
Quote Originally Posted by trabs9:

BetOnline is typically the first online book to posts line, usually the day before a game.  Use their lines.  You can get this off the scores tab on this site, NCAABB, line moves.   BetOnline opened Washington at -10.5.

Correct, you would take Drake.  Always side with Vegas.

Having a tough time finding scores tab at Betonline ??? Help ??? Thank you !!!
 
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Posted: #212
Quote Originally Posted by Upside:

Having a tough time finding scores tab at Betonline ??? Help ??? Thank you !!!
Maybe I have to register with Betonline to get the scores tab ??
 
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Posted: #213
Scores tab on Covers.com > Scores > NCAAB > Find Game > Line Moves
 
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Posted: #214
Quote Originally Posted by trabs9:

Scores tab on Covers.com > Scores > NCAAB > Find Game > Line Moves
Thanks !!! I noticed only Betonline's opening line Washington - 10 1/2 is the only Sportsbook that had Wash - 10 1/2 .. Imo .. Hilton would be best but if you guys have been using Betonline so be it .. Your opinion ???
 
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Posted: #215
First of all, I remember discovering this trend last year in January, and posting a few times in Beaver and Poolman's threads, so I give all of you GREAT KUDOS for keeping up with the tracking and filtering you've been doing this year!

And as I've said it before, it's nice to add quantitative analysis to this theory, the fundamental analysis is simple.....1.) If it smells like a trap because it seems too easy to take the other side, it probably is. 2.) Fading the public consensus is generally more profitable over long run than tailing them, especially when you see reverse line movement.  3.) A majority of the games that qualify for this system are usually let down spots for one team or the other before or after a BIG game for them.

My question is this.......Have any of you thought about the 65% rule being flawed, because you are using the consensus from the very site that you are posting the plays in?  Isn't it possible that the guys posting their plays in the contests here, have noticed this trend before or have been reading Beaver's ongoing posts?

With that said...keep up the great work of your quantitative filtering of games...it's extremely helpful to the rest of us!

MM
 
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Posted: #216
In Trouble with Johnnies ... oh well
 
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Posted: #217
I get my Vegas lines from Vegas insider to get the consensus
 
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Posted: #218
Quote Originally Posted by trabs9:

? Initial finds for today ?

Washington -8.5
Maryland -2, above 65% consensus right now on Covers
Drake +-1
St. John's +6
Indiana St.+8

same as me, but i have S. Illini too opened at +15.5 on betonline KP +21

St. Johns +7 (Home, dog, toward)

Washington -8 1/2 (home, fav, toward)

Ind St +7 (home, dog, toward)

S. Ill +13 1/2 (home, dog, toward)

Drake -1 1/2 (home, fav, toward)

 

 
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Posted: #219
I got the same as you stiffler.  I got in too late to bet the St john (looks lucky for now), will also skip the Washington and Drake games (home, fav, toward)
 
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Posted: #220
And S Ill is a road dog right?
 
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Posted: #221

I try to be patient when looking for help, but to make 2 posts and to be totally ignored is rather bothersome.

I think some of you have forgotten how you started out and I am certain someone has helped you along the way.

I don't like to be rude or ignorant as other people would be. I understand you have your little "clique" in this thread, sorry for trying to learn or help.

Best of success,

jr

 

 
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Posted: #222
Quote Originally Posted by jrivers:

I try to be patient when looking for help, but to make 2 posts and to be totally ignored is rather bothersome.

I think some of you have forgotten how you started out and I am certain someone has helped you along the way.

I don't like to be rude or ignorant as other people would be. I understand you have your little "clique" in this thread, sorry for trying to learn or help.

Best of success,

jr

 

Trabs9 helped me get started ..First day on the job , so I don't know what the rest may know .. What do u need ??

 

 
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Posted: #223
Quote Originally Posted by jrivers:

I try to be patient when looking for help, but to make 2 posts and to be totally ignored is rather bothersome.

I think some of you have forgotten how you started out and I am certain someone has helped you along the way.

I don't like to be rude or ignorant as other people would be. I understand you have your little "clique" in this thread, sorry for trying to learn or help.

Best of success,

jr

I disagree, I dont feel there is a clique.  A lot of the people posting now weren't in the beginning threads.  Beaver has been busy the last 2 days and hasn't posted much, I personally haven't answred your posts because I dont know enough to give advice, and maybe the others just missed your post.   I dont think you should take it personal

 
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Posted: #224
JR I'm not sure if u want a direct answer or what but if u read the thread you can find lots of info didn't u get enough attention as a kid?
 
 
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Posted: #225
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