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Vegas vs KenPom Week 8

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YTD Record

For the night: 0-0 (-%)

For the week: 0-0 (-%)

For the year: 152-125 (55%)


In depth stats:

Home Teams: 75-68 (52%)
Road Teams: 58-41 (59%)

Favorites: 64-57 (53%)
Dogs:      88-68 (56%)

Line moved toward KP:  103-97 (52%)
Line moved away KP:  40-17 (70%)


Finished 36-27 last week, still a solid week but went 15-19 on the weekend.  Way more games than I would like to play in 2 days...maybe next season I will not play saturdays at all, or maybe just the away movement plays.  We will see how this season finishes up
 
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UN - Official Monday Plays:

Uconn -5 (Home, Fave, None so far)

This is the only one I see.  I will lock it in tomorrow and post which direction the line moves
 
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Beaver I have a question. Which line do you use for your starting point KP or Vegas. Example team A starts at -5 on KP but -3 at Vegas donut is a 3 point movement play based on KP but two based on Vegas. I had made my plays based on original KP line but then added the ones you played based on Vegas line. The Vegas lines did much worse. I think if you used KP as your starting point the amount if games you play would be less.
 
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Posted: #4
Damn iPhone changing my words Was supposed to say tram A not donut
 
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Posted: #5

I got -5 1/2 at 5dimes.

Yeah alot of games this weekend. Like the system Beaver, thanks for the hard work.

 
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Quote Originally Posted by Candyman2011:

Beaver I have a question. Which line do you use for your starting point KP or Vegas. Example team A starts at -5 on KP but -3 at Vegas donut is a 3 point movement play based on KP but two based on Vegas. I had made my plays based on original KP line but then added the ones you played based on Vegas line. The Vegas lines did much worse. I think if you used KP as your starting point the amount if games you play would be less.


Hmmm, that could be a great idea.  I have been using the vegas opening line to determine plays.  If you want to track the other way for a while that would be great
 
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Official Monday Play

Uconn -5.5 (Home, Fave, Away)
 
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Quote Originally Posted by Candyman2011:

Beaver I have a question. Which line do you use for your starting point KP or Vegas. Example team A starts at -5 on KP but -3 at Vegas donut is a 3 point movement play based on KP but two based on Vegas. I had made my plays based on original KP line but then added the ones you played based on Vegas line. The Vegas lines did much worse. I think if you used KP as your starting point the amount if games you play would be less.

Candy can you explain this again please. Im not following...

 
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He's saying use the KP line as the determining factor as to what level the difference should be at. So if KP opens at -5 and Vegas at -3 that would only be a play if you use the -3 Vegas line as the line difference determinant. If you used KP, you would need a 3 pt difference instead of a 2 pt difference with the Vegas line being within the 0-4 range. KP would be in level 2 or 4.5-12. 
 
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Quote Originally Posted by flyerlax06:

He's saying use the KP line as the determining factor as to what level the difference should be at. So if KP opens at -5 and Vegas at -3 that would only be a play if you use the -3 Vegas line as the line difference determinant. If you used KP, you would need a 3 pt difference instead of a 2 pt difference with the Vegas line being within the 0-4 range. KP would be in level 2 or 4.5-12. 

so the same system, only using vegas instead of KP?

 
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Posted: #12
I understand now. Thanks flyer.
 
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Posted: #13
The last 3 I added would not have been plays 3 losers cal Davis, Miami Ohio, and rhode island
 
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Posted: #14
lets go UCONN play this right and I can win FG and 2nd half
 
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hahaha sometimes you get the big bear.....
 
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Posted: #16
YES  YES, 2times, sweet layup to finsh the game, I thought he was going to dribble it out.
 
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Posted: #18
I missed the 2nd half was going to pull trigger was waiting for nugget to post his play
 
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Posted: #19
All i see for tomorrow is

Illinois +9  KP +12  (3)
 
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Posted: #20
Quote Originally Posted by fademenow77:

All i see for tomorrow is

Illinois +9  KP +12  (3)

Don't we have to wait for KP to update after the last games of the evening?

 
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Posted: #21
Here's what I see for tomorrow (unofficial awaiting updated lines from Kenpom):

Pennsylvania +4.5 (Home, Dog, Toward, Level 1)
Depaul +12 (Road, Dog, None, Level 3)
Illinois +9.5 (Home, Dog, Toward, Level 2)

Note: I am going with Kenpom's line to set the required field for the necessary difference. This is differing from what I had previously done by using the Vegas opening line be the determinant. Also note, these lines are what is currently offered by 5dimes as of this post
 
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Posted: #22
Quote Originally Posted by fademenow77:

All i see for tomorrow is

Illinois +9  KP +12  (3)

Thats all I seen.

 
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Posted: #23
I have
Pennsylvania +2
Iowa + 15.5
Depaul+12
Southern illunois+9
Baylor+1

Iowa +15.5
 
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Posted: #24
Oops supposed to be Illinois not southern il
 
 
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Posted: #25
I think all of these numbers climb tomorrow
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