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Vegas vs KenPom Week 8

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Posted: #26
Scratch Iowa just missed by .5
 
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Posted: #27
Arent we using opening lines for Beavers system?
 
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Posted: #28
Locking Baylor +3 in tonight
 
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Posted: #29
well, do you use the kenpom line to determine which category it's in or the Vegas... because depaul at a kenpom +16 would need a 5pt difference to qualify if we use the kenpom line to determine which level
 
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Posted: #30

Quote Originally Posted by fademenow77:

well, do you use the kenpom line to determine which category it's in or the Vegas... because depaul at a kenpom +16 would need a 5pt difference to qualify if we use the kenpom line to determine which level

Yeah its kenpom.

 
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Posted: #31
I use the KP estimate to determine how much the line must vary.
 
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Posted: #32
So if KP was -16 then it would have to be a 4pt difference from the opening line in Vegas.
 
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Posted: #33
(O-4 =2)(4.5-12=3)(12.5-16= 4)(16.5+=5)
 
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Posted: #34
I HAVE ILL. ST AS A LOCKED _+13.5
 
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Posted: #35
depaul
penn

thats all I see using the system the way I have been doing it, i will need to see data in order to change it
 
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Posted: #36
Beaver how is Baylor not a play either way KP has them at +3 they opened at +1?
 
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Posted: #37
Through Vegas insider I clicked all games and scrolled down to betonline seems they are the earliest to release.

I seen:

Indiana state opened -7.5 (kp -4)
Baylor opened at +1 (kp +3)

Ofcourse depaul and penn.

Lmk what you think Beaver.
 
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Posted: #38
Thanks stiffler,

Looks like I missed ind st. Where do u see Baylor opening st +1?  I see +2 at every book. 
 
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Posted: #39
 
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Posted: #40
Looks like Indiana St. is at 65%. Do you wait until closer to tip off to scratch them from the system or are the out as soon as they reach 65%? Thanks for all your work on this. Super interesting.
 
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Posted: #41
my boy, Ken is getting crushed this season. Under 45% for power6 games. Should've known this would happen after he started charging for his site....
 
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Posted: #42
Beaver, veagasinsider.com, I click on line movement, scroll down to betonline that's the earliest line I see. Opened at +1.
 
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Posted: #43
At 249pm on the 9th
 
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Posted: #44
Quote Originally Posted by dipflop:

Looks like Indiana St. is at 65%. Do you wait until closer to tip off to scratch them from the system or are the out as soon as they reach 65%? Thanks for all your work on this. Super interesting.


Oh yeah! Thats why I didn't post them last night.  Indiana St is not a play.
 
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Posted: #45
Quote Originally Posted by stiffler1705:

At 249pm on the 9th


Strange, I wonder why the opening line is different on covers.  Oh well, lets go with it
 
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Posted: #46
Official Tuesday Plays:

Depaul +11 (Road, Dog, Away)
Penn +5 (Home, Dog, Toward)
Baylor +2.5 (Road, Dog, Toward)
 
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Posted: #47
I don't have a betonline acct so I just go to the game at Vegasinsider and click on line movement. I'm at work apologies on not checking the 65% thing. So depaul, penn and Baylor for tonight.
 
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Posted: #48
Thanks for al your hard work.
 
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Posted: #49

Yeah...Baylor opened at (+1) Bet Online...most other sites opened it at (+2) later

Covers doesn't always get the opening line right...one site that is very good for that is Madduxsports.com

GL...PM.  

 
 
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Posted: #50
PB...lol
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