Vegas vs KenPom Week 8

Beaver this is what I'm seeing for today. (All my opening lines from betonline @ 1:49pm 1/10/12)

Villanova (opened +8/ KP +11)

Dayton (opened +2.5/ KP -1)

Northern Ill (opened +17/ KP +22)

BGSU (opened PK/ KP +3)

Arkansas (opened +3/ KP -1)

Tulsa (opened -6.5/ KP -3)

Texas A/M (opened +9/ KP +12)

Tenn St (opened -6.5/ KP -3) (61%)

Ohio U was a play too but over 65%. LMK what you think. Thanks as always.

Yeah Ohio U was above this morning.

I rarely post, but I've been eyeing this interesting thread from the beginning. 

Lately, I see some here are blasting KenPom's methods, at least as it pertains to Wisconsin, but remember he did more for 'capping basketball games than anyone in recent memory......He didn't explain why he has Wisconsin so far "out of whack", but he made it clear it could happen.....and it may continue.  I'm not going to be the one call him out, as I'm certain he's spent more knowledgeable time and effort in this endeavor than most of us combined.

I don't have insight into his EXACT formulas, but I've built a model that is very close..... it may be identical.  I've used his methods for 3 years.  The first year I made so much money, I was "kicking tires" on a twin engine 6-seat Aerocommander to get me back and forth to Vegas.  The next year was profitable, but drastically lacking from the initial season.  This year is a little better than last, but nothing like the first year.  Did the "linesmakers" catchup?....I don't know, but something is different......and thoughts of the airplane are now a pipe dream. 

In an effort to analyze why some of KenPom's recent data seems flawed, I think his so-called "over-evalution", or "under-evaluation" stems from his "ADJUSTED" figures and his SoS figures.  If one spent a little time bumping around the net, it's likely you'll find a enought information to create workable models involving Off. efficiency and Def. efficiency as well as the application of each.  One of the biggest variances involves Strength of Schedule and how its' computed and applied.  I know of three separate methods, all used by current bloggers that have merit, but each concludes with a different number.  When applied, it skews the predictive value......

In conclusion, my money will stay with Ken Pomeroy's methods. His recent figures prove there is NO short cut to repetitive winning in this "game". 

 If you're in this for amusement, his numbers will keep you out of the poorhouse, providing you're using adaqate money management.  If your in this as an occupation, it's a never-ending quest, best attempted by constantly evaluation and upgrading data collection and analysis.